Talk:Coronavirus disease/v2.0

v2.0 : draft in progress, help welcolme

I searched dozens of papers for key characteristics of the COVID19. I need help for SARS, MERS. Seasonal flu is just for personal reference and is expected to be removed soon. If you have info for a cell, contribution welcome. Yug (talk) 15:47, 8 March 2020 (UTC)

Characteristics of patients who have been infected with
SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV ()

Virus	SARS-CoV-2	MERS-CoV	SARS-CoV	H1N1, H3N2
Disease	COVID-19	Middle East respiratory syndrome	Severe acute respiratory syndrome	Seasonal flu
Epidemiology
Detection date	December 2019	June 2012	November 2002	Endemic (n.a.)
Detection place	Wuhan, China	Jeddah, Saudi Arabia	Guangdong, China	Endemic (n.a.)
Confirmed cases	88,585	2494	8096	5~15,000,000/y
Case fatality rate	3,043 (3.44%)	858 (37%)	744 (10%)	290-650,000 (0.1%)
Basic reproduction number	2.2 (95% CI:1.4–3.9) 2.68 (95% CI:2.47–2.86)			1.3
Serial interval period	7.5±3.4 days (95% CI:5.3–19)
Demographic
Age average	49	56	39.9
Age range	21–76	14–94	1–91
Male:female ratio	2.7:1	3.3:1	1:1.25
Health-care workers	16	9.8%	23.1%
Symptoms
Fever	40 (98%)	98%	99–100%
Dry cough	31 (76%)	47%	29–75%
Dyspnea/short breath	22 (55%)	72%	40–42%
Diarrhea	1 (3%)	26%	20–25%
Sore throat	0	21%	13–25%
Ventilatory support	9.8%	80%	14–20%
Prognostic/Evolution
Incubation	5.5 days (1–14) or 5.2 days (95% CI:4.1–7.0)			2-4 days
Onset	Day 0			Day 0
First medical visit	+4.6 days (95% CI:4.1–5.1)
Hospital admission	+7.0 days (4.0–8.0) or +12.5 days (95% CI:10.3–14.8) +9.1 days (95% CI:8.6–9.7)
Dyspnea/short breath	+8.0 days (5.0–13.0)
ARDS	+9.0 days (8.0–14.0)
Mechanical ventilation / ICU	+10.5 days (7.0–14.0)
Recovery	+22.2 days (95% CI:18–83)
Dead	+14 days (6–41) or hospitalization + 12.4 +22.3 days (95% CI:18–82)
Notes

Yug (talk) 10:41, 2 March 2020 (UTC)

References

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf This is a good source (Angunnu (talk) 11:36, 3 March 2020 (UTC))

https://www.who.int/csr/don/24-february-2020-mers-saudi-arabia/en/ For MERS (Angunnu (talk) 11:38, 3 March 2020 (UTC))

Interesting but wouldn't it violate WP:SYNTHESIS? Cinadon36 15:54, 8 March 2020 (UTC)

There is no abusive conclusion, just informative data. Yug (talk) 16:34, 8 March 2020 (UTC)

Your case fatality rate looks like WP:OR. We should be citing what the literature reports on this, not trying to calculate the number directly from data we have available. Bondegezou (talk) 12:11, 10 March 2020 (UTC)

Per Wikipedia:No_original_research#Routine_calculations Yug (talk) 19:04, 11 March 2020 (UTC)

Indeed, I think such numbers can be included on the page, at least for the coronavirus disease, but they all must be sourced. For example, where the basic reproduction number for the seasonal flu came from? My very best wishes (talk) 20:20, 11 March 2020 (UTC)

Case fatality is not a routine calculation. We have discussed this numerous times and repeatedly come to that conclusion. Bondegezou (talk) 08:46, 12 March 2020 (UTC)

One simply needs a better source for ref [b]. This is 3.4% according to WHO [1], and this number is widely cited here and elsewhere. This is key number, and it absolutely must be included, even in the lead. Right now it only appears on the page in connection with false statements by Trump. Must be fixed. My very best wishes (talk) 16:01, 12 March 2020 (UTC)

The article should definitely talk about mortality rates, but it should do so based on numbers given in WP:MEDRS-compliant sources. Bondegezou (talk) 08:55, 13 March 2020 (UTC)

@Bondegezou: I'am quite tired of the petty "CFR is not routine calculation". Per wikipedia :

"Case fatality rate (CFR) — sometimes called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio — is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease for a certain period of time."

So yes, CFR is Wikipedia:No_original_research#Routine_calculations. Then, interpretation need to be an informed reader about its limitations. The stage of the epidemic matters, the date, the undetected / detected ratio matters for a better understanding. This shouldn't encourage to censor the CFR routine calculation. It either fall on the reader to instruct her/himself by clicking on Case fatality rate and reading it, or to us to add ref notes duplicating the Case fatality rate article's content. But pretending we cannot do a routine division is surprisingly petty, while it also force-hand us to fall back upon outdated and therefor less relevant external sources, degrading the quality of the information we provide. Yug (talk) 17:49, 14 March 2020 (UTC)

The matter has been discussed multiple times now on the main article's Talk page and the consensus is that this is not a routine calculation. It is not "petty" to respect an expressed consensus. Bondegezou (talk) 20:26, 14 March 2020 (UTC)

FYI, I made the following change in the article: Added to the intro "...or SARS-1)" and "...or SARS-CoV-1)", as alternate names being used in the year 2020. Acwilson9 (talk) 18:24, 24 March 2020 (UTC)