Talk:Earthquake forecasting

Comments

Looks like a good start, Jerry. I'll see if I can find some more sources for you. You might also look into the USGS seismic hazard maps (see seismic hazard for a start, or the http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/ site). "Operational earthquake forecasting" probably should be included.

I wonder if it might be better to have a more general section on "UCERF", with a subsection on the evolution of the concept and various attempts, and then a subsection on where UCERF3 has gotten to. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:13, 29 December 2016 (UTC)

We have discussed before how there is no sharp boundary between prediction and forecasting. In your "Methods ...." section you are going to run into this, especially as how elastic rebound theory is the underpinning of both endeavors. Keep in mind the distinction between "the next big one", and long-term probabilistic expectation. As an example of how close these run together, and even overlap, note that UCERF2 and UCERF3 do both time-independent and time-dependent models, The former is more in the nature of long-term expectations, while the latter tries to account for stress accumulated since the last earthquake. Stay focused, much of that stuff (besides being deep) is pretty subtle. Ask if you need help. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:32, 30 December 2016 (UTC)

Omerbashich discovery

This Bosnia crownprince discovery for Wikipedia:

Astrophysical cause of tectonics Abstract : Tectonic earthquakes, of Mw(6 ± 5%)+, are found forming a strengthening-peaking-waning pattern distinguishable from respectively quiescent times so well that the pattern means discovery of a universal natural mechanism that necessitates expanding on classical physics. The pattern is seen only during Earth’s alignments to two other heavenly bodies in our solar system lasting for more than three days. This empirical proof of astrophysical origins of seismotectonics is immediately obvious and verifiable. The find is consequential due to sheer size of processes and energies involved in defining the pattern that now enables all-or-nothing negative forecasting by foretelling dates without strong quakes. Earth’s energy budget and tectonics are primarily astrophysical in origin, instead of geophysical as previously believed. Near co-planarity of a solar system’s planets, which is for our solar system arguably regarded as odd, is in fact a necessary condition for active geophysics as a life system. The discovery has a potential for fundamentally rewriting physics, macrophysics in particular.

He is in fights with other scientist: Paper accepted for publishing on 31 Aug 2016 by Earthquake Science journal (http://link.springer.com/journal/11589), Editor-in-Chief: Chen Yuntai, member of Chinese Academy of Sciences. Author rejected the offer as part of his protest against the way he and his discoveries were treated by the scientific community that resembled the treatment of Alfred Wegener and his historic discovery.

It is historic, yes? He can forecast earthquakes thanks to aligned planets and sun. Must read!

(Of course, Wikipedia Nazi editors will try to hunt posters' IP addresses, which proves they are today's Nazis because that's same as WW2 Nazis hunting down resistance members' radios with Nachfeldpeiler P57N German direction-finding radio mounted inside a van.) NeoNeoHunter (talk) 16:53, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

External links modified (January 2018)

Hello fellow Wikipedians,

I have just modified one external link on Earthquake forecasting. Please take a moment to review my edit. If you have any questions, or need the bot to ignore the links, or the page altogether, please visit this simple FaQ for additional information. I made the following changes:

• Added archive https://web.archive.org/web/20160810231130/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/products/ to https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/products/
• Added {{dead link}} tag to ftp://minotaur.ess.ucla.edu/pub/kagan/save/kjvan.pdf
• Added {{dead link}} tag to http://www.upo.es/eps/troncoso/Citas/ESWA10/citaESWA-3.pdf

When you have finished reviewing my changes, you may follow the instructions on the template below to fix any issues with the URLs.

This message was posted before February 2018. After February 2018, "External links modified" talk page sections are no longer generated or monitored by InternetArchiveBot. No special action is required regarding these talk page notices, other than regular verification using the archive tool instructions below. Editors have permission to delete these "External links modified" talk page sections if they want to de-clutter talk pages, but see the RfC before doing mass systematic removals. This message is updated dynamically through the template {{source check}} (last update: 5 June 2024).

• If you have discovered URLs which were erroneously considered dead by the bot, you can report them with this tool.
• If you found an error with any archives or the URLs themselves, you can fix them with this tool.

Cheers.—InternetArchiveBot (Report bug) 23:18, 25 January 2018 (UTC)