Talk:EuroMillions/Archives/2016

Probability table correct?

Did anyone check the probability of winning in the article? According to the article it is 1/76*10^6. However, if I recall correctly, all events are independent and should therefore be multiplied together leading to 1/(50*49*48*47*46*9*8) = 1/18*10^9. Hence the probability of guessing all 5 numbers and 2 stars is much smaller and it will also impact all other probabilities in the article. 94.224.68.133 (talk) 00:11, 14 February 2010 (UTC)

Your method of calculation does not take into account that there multiple opportunities for the numbers to be drawn. For example if you have selected a given number (say 39) the chances of that number being drawn initially is 50:5 because there are five numbers drawn. As the numbers are drawn, it becomes progressively harder for your subsequent numbers to be drawn: thus the correct formula is 50/5x49/4x48/3x47/2x46x11/2x10 (assuming 11 lucky starts at time of writing.46.7.85.68 (talk) 18:48, 9 April 2015 (UTC)

The odds are 1 in 76,275,360, as there are that many unique combinations of numbers. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 79.73.137.185 (talk) 13:40, 14 February 2010 (UTC)

Just took a look at these and I am pretty certain the odds for 5 main balls is wrong: I propose 50/5x49/4x48/3x47/2x46 = 2118759/146.7.85.68 (talk) 18:48, 9 April 2015 (UTC)

I thought the same thing, but then I noticed that the probability for at least 5 main balls would be ${\frac {1}{2118760}}={\frac {55}{116531800}}$. This includes the chance of getting 5 main balls and 2 stars (${\frac {1}{116531800}}$) and 5 main balls and 1 star (${\frac {18}{116531800}}$). Without these cases, the probability for exactly 5 main balls and 0 stars would be ${\frac {(55-1-18)}{116531800}}={\frac {36}{116531800}}={\frac {1}{3236994}}$. 89.217.175.22 (talk) 22:54, 22 April 2016 (UTC)

You are absolutely spot on with your calculations, though the odds have since changed. The odds I had calculated were for getting five balls only, and did not take into account the possibilities of getting 5+1 or 5+2. Thanks for the correction.46.7.85.68 (talk) 21:14, 14 October 2016 (UTC)

Booster Fund discrepancies.

Has anybody noticed that under the new format, the Booster fun has been cut from 8.6%v to 4.8%? The publicity put out by the Lottery companies is that the recent recent 25% increase in ticket prices will increase the size and frequency of the jackpots, but by my calculations, even if revenues are increased by 25%, this will only produce 6% in real terms based on the old booster fund. In case I haven't made myself clear, under the old rate, if the prize fund was say £20,000,000, then the booster fund would get £1.72 mill. But if we all decide to carry on buying the same number of tickets each week, the £20 mill prize fund becomes £25 mill, but the booster fund us is reduced to £1.2 mill.46.7.85.68 (talk) 21:29, 14 October 2016 (UTC)