Talk:List of asteroid close approaches to Earth in 2022
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Glory to the heroes
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By coincidence the current statistics for observatories, is showing the Ukraine flag. This is using the colours from 2021.Rafflesgluft (talk) 07:20, 29 March 2022 (UTC)
Predictions for May to Sept
editNearly May. Current predictions for all asteroids which will pass within 5 LD over the next few months:[1]
| Object | Predicted Date of closest approach | Actual Date of closest approach | Predicted closest approach distance (Lunar distance) |
Actual closest approach distance (Lunar distance) |
(H) (abs. mag) |
Approx. Size (m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 JE | 2022-05-11 ±7 hours [2] | 2022-05-11 | 4.91 nominal | 4.9 (0.2% closer) | 26.2 | 15–34 |
| 2012 UX68 | 2022-05-15 ±1 day[3] | 2022-05-15 | 2.74 nominal | 2.45 (19.7% closer) | 24.1 | 40–90 |
| 2021 KO2 | 2022-05-30[4] | 2022-05-30 | 3.08 nominal | not observed | 28.0 | 6.6-15 |
| 2022 GU6 | 2022-06-12[5] | 2022-06-12 | 3.15 nominal | 3.14 (0.2% closer) | 23.1 | 65-140 |
All correctly predicted
Rafflesgluft (talk) 07:02, 29 April 2022 (UTC)
- 2021 KO2 (~10 meters in diameter) has a 2 day observation arc and was not recovered. So it could have passed between 1.2 - 5.1 LD from Earth. -- Kheider (talk) 13:28, 18 October 2022 (UTC)
- Thanks - updated per colour scheme in main article. It was just for interest really, since we get so few predictions sub 1LD, I thought I'd see how 5 LD predictions looked. In the meantime asteroid 2020 TO2 (which is included in the main article) was not observed when it went past. I think it's safe to say by now that we missed it. Will update the main article soon. Rafflesgluft (talk) 18:10, 7 November 2022 (UTC)
References
- ^ "Close Approach Data". Center for Near Earth Object Studies NEO Earth Close Approaches. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 28 April 2022.
- ^ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2019 JE)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 15 Jan 2022.
- ^ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2012 UX68)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 15 Jan 2022.
- ^ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2021 KO2)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 15 Jan 2022.
- ^ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2022 GU6)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 15 Jan 2022.
2009 JF1
editHave commented out the claim in the main article that 2009 JF1 impacted. No evidence is offered of this. The cited horizons output doesn't even put it within 1LD, let alone impacting i.e. the cited reference provides evidence that there was no impact. Further, even if it did provide some such evidence, the horizons prediction is based on an orbit solution from less than 24 hours of data from 2009, and has uncertainty 8 according to the minor planet centre. [1] Finally, if it had impacted in May, an asteroid of that size would definitely make a large infrasound splash, probably 100kt+, but certainly high 10s kt. However no large detonation was detected around that time, in fact nothing even as big as 10kt has been detected since 2018, when there was an unpredicted 49kt impact.[2] It seems highly unlike this impact was 2009 JF1, but in the unlikely event that it was, it didn't occur this year anyway. I.e. rather than the evidence suggesting 2009 JF1 impacted earth in 2022, it shows that it didn't happen.Rafflesgluft (talk) 18:10, 7 November 2022 (UTC)
- 2009 JF1 was listed on Sentry until Feb 2022. -- Kheider (talk) 18:17, 7 November 2022 (UTC)
- Ah OK. In the event that it is not certain that an impact took place (e.g. verified by infrasound sensors or some other third party), I think it's reasonable to be including events that are more likely to have occurred than not, but for anything with less than 50% likelihood, I think it needs a clear note to indicate that the chance of occurrence was very low (and indicate how unlikel it was) Rafflesgluft (talk) 18:59, 8 November 2022 (UTC)
- 2009 JF1 was unique because it is rare to have an asteroid predicted to pass within 1 AU of the Earth (in the next year) and have better than a 1:50,000 chance of impact. Before Feb 2022, 2009 JF1 was nominally predicted to pass about 0.1 AU (15 million km; 39 LD) from Earth with a 1:3800 chance of impact. The table never suggested an impact would be the likely outcome. -- Kheider (talk) 20:32, 8 November 2022 (UTC)
- I didn't realise that. Agree definitely significant and worth including, but also worth noting in the table what you've described above I think? It's definitely notable, but it's not obvious from the table why. Rafflesgluft (talk) 08:46, 9 November 2022 (UTC)
- For comparison, the asteroid with the greatest chance of impacting Earth in 2023 is 2016 LP10 (4-meters in diameter) with less than a 1-day observation arc. It has a 1:53,000 chance of impact on 10 June 2023, but is expected to be around 0.6 AU (90 million km) from Earth on that date. Such an impact would be similair to 2008 TC3. -- Kheider (talk) 11:56, 11 November 2022 (UTC)
- I didn't realise that. Agree definitely significant and worth including, but also worth noting in the table what you've described above I think? It's definitely notable, but it's not obvious from the table why. Rafflesgluft (talk) 08:46, 9 November 2022 (UTC)
- 2009 JF1 was unique because it is rare to have an asteroid predicted to pass within 1 AU of the Earth (in the next year) and have better than a 1:50,000 chance of impact. Before Feb 2022, 2009 JF1 was nominally predicted to pass about 0.1 AU (15 million km; 39 LD) from Earth with a 1:3800 chance of impact. The table never suggested an impact would be the likely outcome. -- Kheider (talk) 20:32, 8 November 2022 (UTC)
Recovery date? 2022-12-15 / 2015 RN35
editThere seems to be a claimed observation of the 2022-12-15 close approach of asteroid 2015 RN35. However at the time of writing that's over a month away. I don't understand how an observation can have been made in the future? If this is due to the recovery of the object in September, I agree is valid and useful to note.[1] However, it's not quite the same thing as observing the close approach. In some ways you could argue it is better. Perhaps it is worth adding a recovery date column to the table? If not, perhaps it needs explaining in a ref note? Or has it been included for a different reason? Rafflesgluft (talk) 18:59, 8 November 2022 (UTC)
- As 2015 RN35 was recovered on 29 Aug 2022, there is no question about the 2022 close approach distance with an uncertainty region of ±95 km.. -- Kheider (talk) 19:57, 8 November 2022 (UTC)
- ha ha, OK, I'll take that as a yes. I'm hoping to get a bit of time in the next week so hopefully will add the new column then... although perhaps uncertainty region at closest approach would be a better column to add than recovery date? That's a very nice figure 08:36, 9 November 2022 (UTC) Rafflesgluft (talk) 08:36, 9 November 2022 (UTC)