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Talk:List of storms in the 2006 Pacific hurricane season/July

< Talk:List of storms in the 2006 Pacific hurricane season
Latest comment: 18 years ago by Coredesat in topic July


July

Latest comment: 18 years ago227 comments24 people in discussion

Week 1

97E.INVEST

New Invest declared at the Navy site. CrazyC83 22:14, 2 July 2006 (UTC)

Gone! -- WmE 13:34, 7 July 2006 (UTC)

90C.INVEST

AoI:07W1A-C: SE of the Hawaiian Islands

First CPac AoI. Considerable convection around 140°W as mentioned in the TWO (just before entering CPHC territory). Not likely to develop though. CrazyC83 02:41, 3 July 2006 (UTC)

90C.INVEST

First Central Pacific Invest (called Noname) is up. —Cuiviénen 03:23, 4 July 2006 (UTC)

A NONAME is either an error or a depression; since they've changed it on the NRL backup to INVEST, I'm changing the header. --Golbez 03:28, 4 July 2006 (UTC)

Gone from NRL page - VOFFA 17:38, 5 July 2006 (UTC)

nevermind it has returned - VOFFA 19:39, 5 July 2006 (UTC)

It's gone again... -- RattleMan 01:00, 8 July 2006 (UTC)

Week 2

98E.INVEST

New invest in the East Pacific, looking quite good now. [1] -- WmE 13:30, 7 July 2006 (UTC)

Considering the NHC said nothing about it yesterday, it is quite surprising. CrazyC83 15:24, 7 July 2006 (UTC)
Now, they expect a possible tropical cyclone within the next 36 hours. -- WmE 17:39, 7 July 2006 (UTC)
36 hours? More like it could be Hurricane Bud in 36 hours... CrazyC83 19:52, 7 July 2006 (UTC)
Now, it really looks like TD 3-E. Nice deep convection near the center. It should be upgraded now. -- WmE 10:51, 8 July 2006 (UTC)

It's less organized now. It could still develop but it is not a sure bet. The EPac is really not very conducive for storm activity this year - this would be like early August in the Atlantic! CrazyC83 01:53, 9 July 2006 (UTC)

10 PM TWO: 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DUE TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
NO LONGER BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

-- RattleMan 04:10, 9 July 2006 (UTC)

03E.Bud

99E.INVEST

A new Invest in the EPac. Maybe we have Bud (finally) soon. -- WmE 23:52, 9 July 2006 (UTC)

This one looks to have good potential as well, but is the open ocean really stopping them all? CrazyC83 03:35, 10 July 2006 (UTC)
If the GFS is right this might become a hurricne. The SST are hot,hot,hot out there. However there seems to be some northerly shear, we'll see. -- WmE 10:59, 10 July 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Depression 3-E

According to NHC, we've got 3-E on our hands. [2] --Patteroast 02:45, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

Yep, and there's no reason to believe that this thing just won't keep intensifying for a while. I'm guessing this could be our first hurricane. Then there's the disturbance behind it...bob rulz 02:54, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Me too. I think it will be Bud within 12 hours. I'm giving it a 95% chance of becoming a tropical storm, a 70% chance of becoming a hurricane and a 30% chance of becoming a major hurricane. CrazyC83 04:14, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Storm Bud

HERE WE GO!! -- WmE 10:02, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

On its way to becoming the first hurricane of 2006 I think. CrazyC83 15:52, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Damn, it's already looking like a hurricane. Nice storm. -- WmE 16:54, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Am I crazy or is he really trying to form an eye? -- WmE 21:40, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Nope, an eye is really forming. I'd say we will have Hurricane Bud within 12 hours, if that...I think this could be a major hurricane! CrazyC83 21:51, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
I'll be very surprised if it's not upgraded to a hurricane very soon. Just check out the imagery. I've never seen a tropical storm look so like a hurricane. Pobbie Rarr 22:06, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
The eye is now clearing out. In my opinion it must be a hurricane now. -- WmE 22:31, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Hurricane Bud

It's a cane. Look at the NHC homepage!! -- WmE 22:34, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

...woooooooah. Bud is the king of rapid intensification! -- RattleMan 22:36, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

I smell a potential monster brewing. Thankfully no land in the way! CrazyC83 22:52, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
And I just wanted to go to bed. ;) -- WmE 23:01, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Isn't this the first ever Bud to reach hurricane strength? Jake52 My talk 20:06, 11 July 2006 (EST)
Once again, the intensity forecasts could hardly be called accurate x_x. —BazookaJoe 00:40, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Is this thing officially undergoing rapid intensification? Pobbie Rarr 00:58, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Yup:
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BUD HAS DEVELOPED A BANDED EYE FEATURE...INDICATING IT IS NOW A HURRICANE AND IS ALSO UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY...INCREASE THE INTENSITY TREND...AND EXPAND THE WIND RADII. BUD IS SEVERAL HOURS INTO ITS PRESENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
-- RattleMan 01:11, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

I'm going to call it now - Category 4 hurricane at peak. It will bottom out around 145 mph and around 935 mb. CrazyC83 03:11, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

The NHC says Bud may strengthen to a peak of a Category 3 or 4 hurricane; but then begin to weaken on either this coming Sunday or Monday. But on the other hand, it may intensify more than latest statistics show. [3] Alastor Moody 08:48, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
Bud was likely on its peak now. I don't think it will become a major hurricane anymore. I expect a cat1 hurricane at the next advisory. -- WmE 13:51, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
What makes you think Bud will be weaken so sooner or later? Alastor Moody (talk) 21:48, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
Well, few hours ago, Bud was looking really bad. There hasn't been a lot of deep convection and no eye was visible. -- WmE 00:27, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Major Hurricane Bud

NRL has it now as a 100kt 960mbar hurricane. -- WmE 00:28, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Now down to 95kt. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:45, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
What's going on here, did Bud reach Cat. 3 or something? Alastor Moody (talk) 00:51, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

This old image has it as 100 knots, 960 mb. -- RattleMan 01:47, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, that's strange. Will the NHC upgrade it to a Category 3 hurricane or will they leave it as a strong Cat. 2? -- WmE 01:58, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
I say we upgrade it to a Category 3 hurricane; anybody else agree or disagree with me? Alastor Moody (talk) 02:31, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
For the record, never update information from anywhere other than official RSMCs. The NRL isn't an official source for a reason, and while I like their updates, they are not official, reliable sources. Titoxd(?!?) 02:52, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

NHC confirms it in their 8 PM discussion, 100 knots. -- RattleMan 02:49, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Agreed. We had that issue with Cyclone Monica. While that can be a secondary resource, the official agency (the NHC in this case) is always what should be used for the official estimates. CrazyC83 02:57, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Good, so now since Bud has become the first major hurricane for this season, now the focus is on getting a high-resolution picture of Bud (probably from NASA). And also, does anyone think Bud may intensify further or is this the end, for Bud and will start to decline? Alastor Moody (talk) 03:03, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

The latest advisory on Bud (953 mb/110 kt) brings its intensity up above the strongest storm of last year (Kenneth 954 mb/115 kt). Chacor 09:22, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Actually, Kenneth had a min. pressure of 947 mbar. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:07, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
"Strongest storm: Kenneth - 954 mbar, 115 knots (215 km/h)" Uh... no, it didn't. Chacor 10:05, 14 July 2006 (UTC)
Look at Kenneth's TCR. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 12:33, 14 July 2006 (UTC)
Bud's now weakening. (962mbar/100kt) -- WmE 15:01, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

To borrow (and, well, modify) a quote from the NHC - "what a difference 12 hours makes!". Bud had quite a bit of convection last night, but now it's almost completely devoid of it. I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC declared it a remnant low by 2 PM PDT. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 14:24, 14 July 2006 (UTC)

NRL has him at 30 knots and 1007 mb, TD status. -- RattleMan 07:46, 15 July 2006 (UTC)

Last advisory issued: 25 kts, 1007 mbar. I've updated the article. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 21:01, 15 July 2006 (UTC)

Bud had disappeared from NRL, but now he's back! What does this mean? -- RattleMan 07:01, 16 July 2006 (UTC)

Its gone now; but the NHC still has it as a remnant low. Alastor Moody (talk) 07:07, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

04E.Carlotta

AoI:07W2A-E: Behind 99E

Described as having potential for tropical development down the road in the TWO. Surprised it is not 90E.INVEST. CrazyC83 23:53, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

90E.INVEST

And another invest has just been declared as we speak. The TWO is quite aggressive on it, saying it has good potential. Maybe the season is heating up now - and this could be Carlotta maybe? CrazyC83 23:55, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

TD3-E Discussion #1 looks like it mentions 90E:
"THE SLOWER THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME INTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST. THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48 HOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES." -- RattleMan 03:10, 11 July 2006 (UTC)
Still looks favorable for TD4-E to develop and possibly become Carlotta. CrazyC83 15:53, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

TCFA issued. -- RattleMan 00:12, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 4-E

It's now Tropical Depression 4-E on the NRL page! Woohoo! —BazookaJoe 01:00, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Nice, what an eventful night! -- RattleMan 01:08, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
So, an advisory at 8:00 PDT, I suppose. Right? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 01:25, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Hey kids, can we not slap up empty headers on the article? Let's wait until we have something to actually add? This isn't a news service, we don't have to twitch madly when the Naval Research Lab says something. --Golbez 02:04, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

The first advisory is out now.--Ajm81 02:10, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Just like big brother Bud, I think this is going to be a significant storm. Hurricane Carlotta within 24 hours. CrazyC83 03:11, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Carlotta
[4] Now a tropical storm. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Reub2000 (talk • contribs).
Wohoo. That's cool!! -- WmE 07:25, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
The NRL has it as a 35kts, 1005mbar Tropical storm! -- WmE 07:29, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
I'll say this time is really busy. It also may become Hurricane Carlotta. Alastor Moody (talk) 08:54, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
Amazing how two cyclones can form so near together and so quickly and almost at the same time. Alastor Moody (talk) 09:10, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
Carlotta looks good now. I'm convinced it will reach hurricane strength soon. -- WmE 13:52, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
I wonder if it may reach Cat. 2 strength, or even Cat. 3 strength. Alastor Moody (talk) 22:17, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

Looking good right now. NRL says 60 kt, 991 mbar. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 02:02, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Plus you can see that it's organized itself similar to a Hurricane. Looks like it will become a Hurricane pretty soon. Reub2000 02:06, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

I estimate within 12-24 hours, Carlotta will be the second hurricane of this season. Alastor Moody (talk) 02:38, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

More like at the next advisory, if a special one is not issued. CrazyC83 02:57, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Now a 70-mph strong tropical storm or near-hurricane, I now again estimate that within less than 12 hours, Carlotta shall become a Category 1 hurricane.
Note: My estimates are not to be cited as a fact for that they are just my best guess for Carlotta. Alastor Moody (talk) 03:10, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
8pm advisory: "HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL FORECAST TWO MORE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM EAST OF CARLOTTA" -- RattleMan 03:07, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
'oly 'hit. It's going to be an active weekend back at the NHC... :P Titoxd(?!?) 03:08, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Man, I bet the pressure is starting to build up. Alastor Moody (talk) 03:14, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
I got a Mexico satellite image from weather.com, but can you pinpoint out where? Alastor Moody (talk) 03:14, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
Hurricane Carlotta

NRL has Carlotta at 70 knots, 984 mb. -- RattleMan 07:15, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

NHC has it at 75kt 981mb.Reub2000 09:09, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Track map showing hurricane carlotta Reub2000 09:12, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Wow this could easily be our next Major hurricane. Wow, a month of silence and then that!! -- WmE 09:45, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Looks like shear is increasing over Carlotta. I doubt it will intensify further. Moreover the NHC has it now at 70 kt. (-5kt) -- WmE 15:03, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Agreed, but you never know. CrazyC83 15:31, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Damn, I think it's forming an eye right now. -- WmE 18:36, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Ok, now I think it could become a major hurricane. The eye is becoming more distinct now. -- WmE 19:08, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
I think Carlotta's peak intensity will either be a Category 2 hurricane or a Category 3 hurricane like Bud. Then it may weaken by next week when it hits the Californian current. Alastor Moody (talk) 20:10, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
Carlotta's eye is becoming more visible now, although it is now sort-of cloudy in it. [5] Alastor Moody (talk) 20:20, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

Due to cooler waters, Carlotta may not peak as a Category 3 like Bud as once thought, but may peak as a Cateogry 1 or 2 hurricane with maximum winds of between 95-110 mph. Alastor Moody (talk) 07:42, 13 July 2006 (UTC)

We can read the NHC discussion perfectly fine, thank you. Chacor 10:06, 14 July 2006 (UTC)

Carlotta's looking quite ugly right now. NRL (while unofficial) says it's down to 65 kt. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 14:26, 14 July 2006 (UTC)

I'll say, within this weekend, I bet both Bud and Carlotta may be gone. Alastor Moody (talk) 18:13, 14 July 2006 (UTC)

Carlotta's a fighter! Back up to 70 kt, 984 mbar. --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 03:26, 15 July 2006 (UTC)

Indeed, restrengthening to a hurricane against NHC expectations! It surely won't last though. Pobbie Rarr 03:54, 15 July 2006 (UTC)

Carlotta seems to be refusing to follow the NHC forecast and is stuggling to survive. Alastor Moody (talk) 04:30, 14 July 2006 (UTC)
Sounds like a couple other storms I've heard of... --Coredesat talk. o.o;; 07:59, 15 July 2006 (UTC)
You can hardly compare them. bob rulz 08:11, 15 July 2006 (UTC)
See? Told ya. Now it's on a permanent weakening trend. bob rulz 14:03, 16 July 2006 (UTC)

The last advisory has been issued. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:40, 17 July 2006 (UTC)

05E.Daniel

See the Daniel Storm Event Archive.

Week 3

06E.Emilia

92E.INVEST

Is up on NRL. --Ajm81 15:55, 16 July 2006 (UTC)

I don't see much from this yet. CrazyC83 16:18, 16 July 2006 (UTC)
Let's give it some time, it may sooner or later develope more and be at least a TS within, like I guees, on Wednesday. Alastor Moody (talk) 05:00, 17 July 2006 (UTC)

Looks much better now. TD6-E by tonight I think. CrazyC83 15:28, 17 July 2006 (UTC)

What was that about this season expected to be below normal in activity? Granted, it could still end up that way, but it's well on track to being pretty active. bob rulz 16:20, 17 July 2006 (UTC)
Well although it is expected to be below-average, lets just wait until the season's over and see how many storms have formed. You never know what might happen. Alastor Moody (talk) 21:10, 17 July 2006 (UTC)
True. Also, the EPAC tends to peak sooner than the Atlantic, and usually has a much more inactive October and November. --Hurricanehink (talk) 21:28, 17 July 2006 (UTC)
The peak of the season happens "late August/early September", with August being the peak for the Central Pacific. I don't think that there is very much to worry about in terms of land effects, as most of the really evil landfalls happen around October. BTW, this is nowhere near being the most active July, as I believe that 7 is the most July cyclogenesises that I am aware of. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 21:40, 17 July 2006 (UTC)
What's the average number of storms for July? If this forms it would already make it 4 storms, and there's still more than a week left in the month. bob rulz 14:06, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
The National Weather Service (a.k.a. weather.com) shows 92E.INVEST is on its way to become a depression and thus a possible Emilia storm within the near-future as stated below from this link.
"Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Daniel (70 mph) continues to grow stronger. Daniel, located over 850 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, is forecast to continue strengthening, likely reaching hurricane intensity later today. The storm is forecast to move generally westward, however, away from land. Another area of thunderstorms, about 550 miles SSW of Acapulco, appears to be slowly organizing and could become a tropical depression in the near future."
Alastor Moody (talk) 17:35, 18 July 2006 (UTC)
weather.gov != weather.com. Titoxd(?!?) 23:16, 18 July 2006 (UTC)

Seems to be taking longer than I thought. But a development to a TD or a TS is possible by this weekend, as the NRL pictures show. Alastor Moody (talk) 01:26, 20 July 2006 (UTC)

The NHC says that a low west of it would become the dominant circulation. So, we'll have to wait. -- WmE 08:41, 20 July 2006 (UTC)
Ok, we may get Emilia out of this. It looks impressive today. -- WmE 13:44, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
No more advisories, but still on the NRL. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:43, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Six-E

NRL upgraded this to TD 6E. While there have been times when the NRL was wrong, that's a good indication that it will be upgraded to TD 6E at 11. --Hurricanehink (talk) 13:52, 21 July 2006 (UTC)

Wow, this season is very active so far. -- WmE 14:14, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Well, the EPAC is usually this active at this time of year. It doesn't mean much, though. If August continues the activeness, then the season will probably be average to above-average in activity, but it's too early to tell. --Hurricanehink (talk) 14:28, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
Six-E. Chacor 14:51, 21 July 2006 (UTC)

The NHC has declared it TD6. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:51, 21 July 2006 (UTC)

So it's now offical. NHC has issued the first advisory. -- WmE 14:51, 21 July 2006 (UTC)

Will any other new storms come after the Six-E (a.k.a. future TS Emilia)? Alastor Moody (talk) 20:41, 21 July 2006 (UTC)

Certainly, the question is when. ;P -- WmE 23:36, 21 July 2006 (UTC)
I mean, are there any new tropical disturbances or moistures now developing off the Central American coast? Alastor Moody (talk) 00:02, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
Not that I can immediately see. I don't see Emilia becoming nearly as strong as Daniel as it is tracking farther north, and cool water comes much farther south in the EPac than the Atlantic. CrazyC83 00:32, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
It could hit Baja California. Barring an El Niño, Daniel will almost certainly take the honours this year. Pobbie Rarr 01:38, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
The northern edge of the forcast track reminds me of Nora... if that happens, then there'll be some fun around here, as it would come straight towards me... Titoxd(?!?) 01:44, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
(offtopic) You live in Arizona too? So do I. Which part? Were you affected by the massive storm that went through a few hours ago? -- RattleMan 03:27, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
A few hours ago? More like right now... Titoxd(?!?) 03:31, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Storm Emilia

The NRL site is now calling the storm "06E.EMILIA", despite still remaining at 30 kt. and having satellite images saying "06E.NONAME". Jake52 My talk 03:00, 22 July 2006 (EST)

NRL now has the images under EMILIA and its info at 35 knots. -- RattleMan 07:13, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
Official NHC advisory has been released. Chacor 08:47, 22 July 2006 (UTC)
Not a very impressive storm yet. bob rulz 03:11, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
Definitely one to watch though. CrazyC83 03:13, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
She looks like a rotating mass of clouds here: [6] Irfanfaiz 03:28, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

...boringgggggg... Alastor Moody (talk) 07:20, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

Looks as if Emilia may finally be a hurricane. Alastor Moody (talk) 21:52, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
NRL still has Emilia at 60kt. Patience... Pobbie Rarr 22:02, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
I didn't yet say it was really a hurricane (for now). Alastor Moody (talk) 22:13, 23 July 2006 (UTC)

Man, this thing looks real sloppy at infared and doppler radar images:-). Alastor Moody (talk) 05:45, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

GFDL Forecast as of 06Z 0724 of Emilia dissipates it quite soon. Interestingly, in that image, jump to frame #10 - a new TC would have developed. Chacor 13:50, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

NRL has weakened it to 55kt. The start of the end? Chacor 13:53, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

Now down to 50kts on NRL. --Ajm81 19:13, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

40 now. --Ajm81 23:02, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

But the NHC still says Emilia has a chance to still become a minimal hurricane within two days or so; if not it will be too late. Alastor Moody (talk) 06:17, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
Wow! NRL says it's back up to 55 kt. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:35, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
Is it me or the current Emilia image has a eye like structure near the center? Irfanfaiz 10:18, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
I think it did. And also, I think we should consider an article for Emilia. But I mentioned on the WPTC talk page that we should make articles for all the named storms of the season, meaning Daniel would be kept. But that plan never seemed to fall through, though I was told it was a good idea. We just need a good article writer for the task of writing a good article on little or no impact storms. Sound good? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 21:40, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
If you want to bring that up, you should start a new discussion, not discuss it on Emilia's section. Regarding Emilia, it looked like a cloud-free center was developing, but never quite organized into an eye. --Hurricanehink (talk) 21:48, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
Uh oh! Emilia's going down by 5 mph. But anyhow, I we should disscus an article for TS Emilia cause it sure has affected Baja California. Alastor Moody (talk) 22:45, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Indent reset - no, not yet. We don't know the effects Emilia had yet, nor the preparations taken. After the TCR, if it caused major damage, then yes. If it was like Aletta and barely did anything, then no. Not all storms need to have articles. Chacor 03:47, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Although my prediction may not be true, I predict Emilia could have done some moderate damage because as far as the NHC says, Emilia has swpet TS-force winds over southern Baja California, although I too don't know how much damage it caused. Alastor Moody (talk) 06:55, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Now this is a storm that I don't think deserves its own article. It did effect California, so give it a freakin cookie but Emilia was a disappointment for me. O-TOWN'S AT 15:44, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Emilia is the currently the only active storm, the reminants of the once hostile Hurricane Daniel are expected to make a rainy weekend for Hawaii. However, we could be looking at TD #3 in the Atlantic soon as an impressive wave rolled off the coast of Africa and accoriding to my satellite program it is entering an area favorable for develpoment. Coming back to Emilia, she is expected to dissolve w/in 12-24hrs.O-TOWN'S AT 21:44, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Gone from the NRL. Alastor Moody (talk) 21:36, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Week 4

93E.INVEST

New Invest in the EPac! -- WmE 19:45, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Could this be Fabio? It has good organization. Alastor Moody (talk) 22:40, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
I think it very well might be Fabio! I'd give it a 70% chance of development. Conditions remain good...also that wave behind it (see the other page) could develop as well. CrazyC83 23:43, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
GFDL develops it. Chacor 02:29, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
Didn't even have time to become an area of interest. This thing looks fairly well-organized, and I predict that it will become Fabio soon. bob rulz 02:35, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
If conditions allow (like low wind shear & warm waters), we will have Fabio in no time. But as of now, this thing looks clearly well-organized. Alastor Moody (talk) 06:48, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

The GFDL no longer develops this past a TD, if the 0727/00Z GFDL forecast on 93E (from Penn State University's TC page) is to be believed. Chacor 15:56, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Gone from NRL. --Ajm81 20:12, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

Lol, you guys crack me up... All that over a bunch of clouds. Now it is time to pay attn to the Atlantic again!O-TOWN'S AT 21:49, 27 July 2006 (UTC)
Lol, yeah, I mean, look at all of the discussion at 99L.INVEST. What if that doesn't develop? And the East Pacific deserves attention, too...these lonely hurricanes need some love!bob rulz 09:10, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

07E.Fabio

94E.INVEST

Now up and looks like we may get something from this. Chacor 13:15, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Wow! I think I just saw some convention bursts out of this wave. Expect some dvelopement sooner or later. Alastor Moody (talk) 01:29, 30 July 2006 (UITC)
Yeah, the NHC expects development too. I think this will be Fabio. -- WmE 15:33, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Seeing some slow developement, but convection bursting up! Alastor Moody (talk) 20:17, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
7-E is imminent now... CrazyC83 03:08, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, this invest looks very well-developed now. I see spiral bands...bob rulz 03:12, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
This wave seems to be coming out well in the east Pacific. Some strengthening also seems forecasted by the NRL to possibly become a depression. Alastor Moody (talk) 08:46, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Now 07E on NRL. Waiting for the official announcement... —Cuiviénen 19:01, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Seven-E

[7] The NRL has declared it TD 7-E now.Tropische Storm Sven 19:04, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah just saw it. So, we've to wait for the NHC to confirm it. -- WmE 20:00, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Next TWO is in 2 1/2 hours, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory before then. CrazyC83 20:30, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
NHC confirms. -- RattleMan 20:55, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
I think we may get Fabio out of this one. It seems to look very much like a tropical storm (only that it isn't a declared TS). Alastor Moody (talk) 23:17, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
07E.FABIO

NRL has Fabio. How come they get to find out stuff before we do? >:( íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:53, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Fabio is here!!! Alastor Moody (talk) 00:59, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Not until the NHC says so. Chacor 01:00, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Do you mean to wait for two solid hours until they finally declare it as Fabio? Come on, these cyclones are current events. Alastor Moody (talk) 01:04, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Yes, absolutely!. That is because the NRL works off a different fuse to the NHC. Both the US Military and NOAA track these storms. While they generally agree, they are two independent agencies, their tracks do differ slightly. Operationally the military seem to be a little faster than the civilians. As we are so hyperactive at the moment we can't wait the 2-3 hours for the NHC to make things official. The NRL got caught out with 16-E/Pilar last year, because the storm weakened before the NHC released the next advisory. There isn't a rush!--Nilfanion (talk) 01:07, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, sadly. Either that, or they might release a special advisory (unlikely). I'm excited too, but I say it's best to wait for the NHC :) -- RattleMan 01:06, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Come on, isn't it exicting to see a TS here in the Pacific again. Alastor Moody (talk) 01:09, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Yes, but not until the NHC officially says so. The NHC have official jurisdiction, not NRL. Plus, last year NRL described a "16E.PILAR", which the NHC never recognised past TD 16-E. Chacor 01:10, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Storm Fabio
It's officially Fabio, according to the NHC. guitarhero777777 02:59, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

OOPS. Didn't see the edit below this discussion. Just repeated what that person said. guitarhero777777 03:00, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Now it's official. Chacor 02:58, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Finally! Those two hours left almost like two years to me. Well its sort-of fun to see a TS back in the pacific with no land in the way. Alastor Moody (talk) 04:37, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Wow...the East Pacific isn't getting much love right now, with Chris hogging all the attention. Anyway, Fabio looks like it's falling apart. The shear is really getting to it. bob rulz 05:21, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Wind shear seems to be destroying Fabio. Dosen't seem to reintenisfy anymore. Alastor Moody (talk) 21:07, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Intensity is registered as "Too weak" - VOFFA 21:29, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

08E.Gilma

95E.INVEST

And another Invest. -- WmE 19:15, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

It doesn't look very healthy at all. bob rulz 03:12, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
But it seems to be moving over more favoritable conditions over the next few days, but this wave still has some chance to develope. Hope may still survive for this wave. Alastor Moody (talk) 08:47, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
95E now looks more organized and with possible convection coming up. Alastor Moody (talk) 22:28, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
08E.NONAME

What a day, now 08E.NONAME from NRL. Chacor 02:05, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Well, it definitely looks like a tropical depression. It's gotten much better organized. bob rulz 02:54, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Tropical Depression Eight-E

Confirmation from the NHC. Chacor 02:56, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

I don't see any confimation. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:57, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
nvm. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 03:04, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

July goes out with a bang! WOW!!! CrazyC83 03:17, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Oddly enough, the header for 8-E's Discussion currently says "Tropical Depression BUD Forecast Discussion" (the same problem occurs with the Atlantic's TD3 Discussion, "Tropical Storm DELTA Forecast Discussion"). -- RattleMan 03:27, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Wow! I'm now expecting this storm to be named Gilma. Seems that the parade is on. Alastor Moody (talk) 04:26, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Whoa! What an eventful night here, two storms forming in the eastern pacific with a wave becoming a depression in the atlantic must have kept the National Hurricane busy right now. Also if you don't mind TS 07W in the western pacific including an extra INVEST and a monsoon INVEST in the Bay of Bengal. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 06:15, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
And the East Pacific enters August with a bang. No changes to either of them with this latest update. bob rulz 08:58, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Oh well, 8-E didn't make a TS level here at the 2 o'clock advisory in the Pacific date time; but expect it to be a TS by the next advisory. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 09:20, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
You're not an NHC forecaster, don't tell us to expect it to be a TS by the next advisory. Indeed, it'd probably remain TD 8E. Chacor 09:21, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
I take that back, I apologise - NRL has 08E.GILMA. Chacor 13:43, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
08E.GILMA

NRL has Gilma up. Chacor 13:43, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

I think this storm looks better than Fabio does, so I think the NHC will follow suit with their next update. bob rulz 14:26, 1 August 2006 (UTC)


WTPN32 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/010930AUG2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E WARNING NR 002
  02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  010600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 104.3W
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
  REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 104.3W
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  011800Z --- 14.3N 105.6W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  020600Z --- 15.0N 106.8W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  021800Z --- 15.5N 108.3W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
   ---
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  48 HRS, VALID AT:
  030600Z --- 15.9N 109.8W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
   ---
  72 HRS, VALID AT:
  040600Z --- 16.8N 113.2W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
   ---
  LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
  NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
  NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
   ---
  96 HRS, VALID AT:
  050600Z --- 18.0N 117.0W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
  VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
   ---
  120 HRS, VALID AT:
  060600Z --- 21.0N 119.5W
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   ---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 104.7W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 11 FEET.
AT 010600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 326 NM SW OF ACAPULCO.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 07E (FABIO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 010846
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 104.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 104.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 65NE  45SE  45SW  65NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 65NE  45SE  45SW  65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

I've just uploaded two complete advisories here. The NHC and JTWC both are issuing advisories on 8-E. The JTWC advisory is just the NHC repackaged to better suit military interests. However, note they are different in release times. The NHC is official so.. use the NHC not the military.--Nilfanion (talk) 14:35, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gilma

NHC has upgraded it. Chacor 14:50, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

It's now a depression. Wow, that was unexpected. If it moves quick enough, it might be able to reoganize itself farther away from the shear. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 12:06, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Won't happen - the 12Z Dvorak readings, according to the SSD, returned T1.5/2.5, as below: Chacor 13:51, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
 02/1200 UTC    14.7N  106.3W    T1.5/2.5            GILMA  --  East Pacific Ocean

The NRL has 35 kts now. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 23:41, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Well, it's pretty much dead now. Wow, Gilma and Fabio were pretty much mirror images of each other...they formed at about the same time, struggled against wind shear, reaching minimal tropical storm strength, and now they're both close to dissipating...bob rulz 08:56, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

The NHC indicates a possible regeneration. I have to agree. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 16:43, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

Nice convective blowup on the northwestern side of the center, and Dvorak numbers are back up to 1.5. Gilma just might be coming back. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 20:31, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
And it appears to have gone poof. No longer mentioned in the TWO. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 06:05, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
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