Talk:Monetary policy
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Various misplaced comments
editcould a logged-in user movethis article to "monetary policy of the USA" plase? Then we need non-country-specific articles on Monetary policy and Monetary theory (currently a redirect) -- tarquin (loggedout)
- Did that -- now someone should sort out what parts of Monetary policy of the USA belongs in the general Monetary policy article and what is US specific. -- till we *) 14:13, Aug 15, 2003 (UTC)
Removed recap of the history of currency, since that is the article which should have those details, am going to add more on the expansion of monetary policy through the Bretton woods and floating currency eras, as well as the Mundell-Fleming model. Stirling Newberry 13:47, 15 Feb 2005 (UTC)
This article is still written almost entirely about current US policy and appears to have been so for years. I will be spending some time this month to clean it up. --Tylerdmace (talk) 20:02, 7 November 2008 (UTC)
Please, can economic experts relate this page and its relatives to the page Debt-based_monetary_system!
editThe article Debt-based_monetary_system stands currently unrelated to the bulk of the articles on monetary policy and closely related matters. What is worse, it is completely non NPOV, offering only critique of credit based money and absolutely no explanation of the point of such a system, cherry picking quotes of obscure figures and highlighting how many believe the system "leads to tyranny" and the like. It seems like the criticisms offered on this page should be incorporated into the currently existing pages, sobered up a great deal, and counterbalanced with criticisms of the criticisms. I tried to add one paragraph of more level headed context at the beginning, but I am not knowledgeable enough to do so authoritatively. 32F 14:57, 20 September 2007 (UTC)
Economic policy: please help!
editI've just made a start at rewriting Economic policy covering fiscal and trade issues as well as monetary topics. Please join in! The Land 18:31, 15 November 2005 (UTC)
Article removed from Wikipedia:Good articles
editThis article was formerly listed as a good article, but was removed from the listing because
- There are no references.
- The lead section is way too short to provide a useful overview of the article subject.
- There are no images.
Please review Wikipedia:What is a good article. Slambo (Speak) 14:50, 23 March 2006 (UTC)
Failed GA
editFour citations is not enough. Great basic summary, though. savidan(talk) (e@) 04:20, 3 April 2006 (UTC)
- How many citations should I add? Sasha Slutsker 01:09, 8 April 2006 (UTC)
- I don't believe there to be a required number. The article needs to be sufficiently cited, and while 'sufficient' is always up for debate, I think you'd be safe if the majority of the article was cited.
Merge proposal
edit- The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section. A summary of the conclusions reached follows.
- Closing this discussion. For starters, no consensus developed. Secondly, Monetary theory redirects to monetary economics, so the merge is no longer valid. WTF? (talk) 23:30, 1 June 2013 (UTC)
Monetary theory and this article overlap, but since this article is much more completely developed, I propose merging monetary theory into monetary policy. (Given the refs there, this may also help restore MP to its GA status.) Jeremy Tobacman 19:02, 4 August 2007 (UTC)
- Don't merge. Monetary theory may possibly be expanded to cover the different models of monetary economics such as the Quantity Theory of Money, Keynesian and post-Keynesian theories or the different attempts to incorporate money into dynamic general equilibrium. It may also discuss issues like the efficiency of monetary exchange vs. barter or the relationships between credit and money. None of this would be possible within an article on monetary policy. The references would also not help too much. I haven't seen the Edward Elgar book but the other books are more focussed on theory than on policy. Jyotirmoyb 08:40, 5 August 2007 (UTC)
- Don't merge. The theory of what money is, and how it works, is a huge topic by itself; what macroconomic policies best control its effects is another field featuring 800-page textbooks. That is, I completely agree with Jyotirmoyb's comment. --Rinconsoleao 13:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC)
- As I see it, in the most common current usage "monetary theory" and "monetary policy" are of the same central-bank-issued coin. Monetary theory is used to determine optimal monetary policy; historical variation, due partly to monetary policy, informs current prevailing theory. One well-regarded current six hundred page textbook sees fit to treat them together. Jyotirmoyb and Rinconsoleao, I think much of "what money is and how it works," including relation to barter, is now sensibly covered in the money article. Discussion of MV=PY, in my mind, fits well in an article on monetary policy, as it captures the first-order long-run lesson for central banks. Jeremy Tobacman 14:07, 16 August 2007 (UTC)
- Why don't we merge "medical science" and "healthcare policy"? Why don't we merge "automaking" and "moving violation"? Why don't we merge "reproduction" and "family law"? Those overlap in about the same way. Go to it - you have a lot of WIKI ground to cover if you believe your own position. 76.247.107.101 15:38, 4 October 2007 (UTC)
- Sure, given 600 pages, I agree that they could be treated together! But for Wikipedia's purposes, I think the money page, which discusses the nature of money for nonspecialists, should be linked to but separate from the monetary theory page, which should cover questions about how economists model money, including Baumol-Tobin, OLG, CIA, MIU, matching, and other classes of models. As Jyotirmoyb pointed out, theoretical treatment of efficiency of money, for example, also wouldn't fit will in the monetary policy page, which is very much a topic in its own right. --Rinconsoleao 11:35, 17 August 2007 (UTC)
Sterilization?
editI can't find any page for the term Sterilization and it is also not mentioned on the pages for Economics and Monetary Policy. Perhaps it would make sense to include it somewhere. --Smallchanges 12:34, 2 September 2007 (UTC)
Managed float badly worded
editThe "managed float" section is very derogatory towards the Reserve Bank of India and seems to directly accuse it of lying. I think this is in desperate need of rewording, but unfortunately I know nothing of economics. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 80.42.87.105 (talk) 19:24, 22 January 2008 (UTC)
- There is nothing derogatory about saying that some currency follows a managed float. And many central bank policies differ in practice from what they are officially called. Still, the statement about the Indian exchange rate regime lacks citations (or lacks a graph that would illustrate the claims). --Rinconsoleao (talk) 08:47, 23 January 2008 (UTC)
- Why is the section on managed float almost entirely about India? Aren't there other countries that have managed floats too? Finnancier (talk) 14:33, 1 February 2008 (UTC)
I have removed the entire section for the time being. It was so poorly written that it will take a bit of work to cite and rewrite into a presentable form. I'll be working on it and will reintroduce it to the article when I am done. --Tylerdmace (talk) 07:06, 11 November 2008 (UTC)
Another type of monetary policy
editThe section Monetary policy#Types of monetary policy does not include the type of monetary policy which I advocate. It is described at User:JRSpriggs/Optimal monetary policy. I claim that a policy of maximal sustainable deflation is best. Is it OK to add this to the list in the article? JRSpriggs (talk) 20:45, 10 November 2008 (UTC)
- I haven't had a chance to read through your ideology but off the top, I'd suggest trying to publish your ideas somewhere where they can then be referenced and an appropriate article regarding the policy could be created. --Tylerdmace (talk) 20:58, 10 November 2008 (UTC)
- To Tylerdmace: Do you have any suggestions as to where I could get it published? Any comments on it yourself? Can you suggest any discussion groups on monetary policy where I could get criticism of the ideas from other people? JRSpriggs (talk) 19:16, 13 November 2008 (UTC)
- The current financial crisis has created a lot of fear which is causing people to want to hold much more money than they previously felt they needed. The "stimulus packages" being offered by various politicians are woefully inadequate to provide that extra money, and they have other defects as well. My plan was developed during the Asian financial crisis of several years back. It would solve the current problem by having FRS buy huge amounts of stock and thus making the additional money needed available quickly without any increase in debt (which would defeat the purpose). JRSpriggs (talk) 19:16, 13 November 2008 (UTC)
Where is capital adequacy ?
editNo mention of capital adequacy in either this or money supply. These and monetary reform and fractional reserve banking all need to reflect that capital adequacy rules are what central banks really use to control credit - not "reserve requirements". These articles are very badly out of date.
Read Henry C K Liu's writings on this if you need references. He's got volumes. And someone should update the "Helicopter Ben" quote - he's no longer credible. Smoothing out variations indeed! —Preceding unsigned comment added by 142.177.92.153 (talk) 22:31, 25 November 2008 (UTC)
Enemies say Monetarism failed
editRinconsoleao (talk · contribs) edited the history section to include
- Previously, monetarist macroeconomists advocated simply increasing the monetary supply at a low, constant rate, as the best way of maintaining low inflation and stable output growth. However, when this policy was attempted in the U.S. in the early 1980s, it was found to be highly destabilizing, a fact even Milton Friedman acknowledged in an interview with the Financial Times in 2003.
He used a speech by James K. Galbraith (an enemy of Monetarism) as his source, rather than the Financial Times. I think that this is at best hear-say rather than a reliable source. Even Galbraith merely says "Friedman himself conceded to the Financial Times in 2003: “The use of quantity of money as a target has not been a success. I’m not sure I would as of today push it as hard as I once did.”" which is a considerably weaker statement than saying "it was found to be highly destablizing". JRSpriggs (talk) 02:04, 17 March 2009 (UTC)
Too long to read
editThis article needs a serious trim. It's too long to read. I would encourage everyone to be BOLD and take an axe to the redundant parts of the article. Some parts can also be split of into daughter articles. Some specific observations:
- There shouldn't be an 'Overview' section as the lead is supposed to function as an overview.
- The lead as it stands doesn't actually summarize the whole article.
- The 'History' section is too long.
- The section 'Trends in central banking' seems to be entirely WP:OR.
--LK (talk) 12:28, 19 April 2009 (UTC)
- It seems good to me, and would be a shame to just trim for the sake of it. Monetary policy is a big subject. Things shouldn't be axed at all; but you're right about general style, and the history section could certainly have its own main article. Wikidea 14:33, 9 August 2009 (UTC)
- I find myself in agreement with LK, the article is too long to fit the standards of an encyclopedia (one of the encyclopedia's purposes being its focus on the essential). Many of the article's sections - Theory, History, etc. - could be summarized and outsourced into articles of their own such as "History of monetary policy" or "Monetary policy theory" (redundancy with monetary theory?). --Arbraxan (talk) 16:50, 18 August 2013 (UTC)
Fed funds rate
editthe fed funds rate is a market based rate it is not set by the fed.--Jgard5000 (talk) 20:33, 30 September 2009 (UTC)jgard5000
- Yes, the actual Federal funds rate is set by voluntary agreements between the lending and borrowing banks. However, the Open Market Committee of Federal Reserve System (FOMC) establishes a target for the Federal funds rate. Bond traders working for the Fed buy or sell Treasury securities to bring the actual Federal funds rate close to the target. This control is quite effective. JRSpriggs (talk) 07:20, 1 October 2009 (UTC)
Don't vandalise!
editSomeone has been vandalising this site. Please stop it. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 121.44.156.2 (talk) 00:04, 7 October 2009 (UTC)
Effects of Monetary Policy
editThe article describes monetary policy at some length and it is quite obviously a complex subject. But where can I find some information on the effects of monetary policy? For example, around the beginning of this year (2009), the Fed introduced a step change in the money supply that doubled the U.S M0 or Monetary Base thereby devaluing the Dollar. What is the expected effect of this action? Does anyone know? Do theories exist that economic analysts would use to divine the results of a given action or is it more of a by-guess-and-by-gosh kind of thing?
The article is written in terms of interest rates but changes in the money supply produce other effects. In the free market, Dollars are a commodity like wheat or gold and are subject to laws of supply and demand. The Dollar is worth so much less today than, say, fifty years ago because the market is glutted with them. Increasing the M0 is going to drive down the value of the Dollar. For those buying U.S. goods, this is a windfall because they can get more for their Pounds or Yen or whatever. Going the other way, however, it raises the price of foreign goods and is, in effect, a tariff, i.e., protectionist. Is this correct?
It would seem that changes in monetary policy would produce predictable effects. If not here then where should the reader look? --Virgil H. Soule (talk) 18:23, 24 October 2009 (UTC)
- Different schools of economics (see Category:Schools of economic thought and methodology) predict different effects from the same actions. Unfortunately, it is impossible to do controlled scientific experiments on monetary or fiscal policies, because one could never replicate all the circumstances which might affect the outcome and the cost of such an experiment would be prohibitive in any case. So one is left trying to: (1) make untestable inferences from theories about human behavior; (2) trying to correlate time series of economic variables and jumping to conclusions about what it means; or (3) generalizing from experiments with a few people over a short period of time and without much motivation to economies with hundreds of millions of people over decades motivated by life-or-death consequences. Take your pick. JRSpriggs (talk) 18:16, 25 October 2009 (UTC)
- It is common to do what are known as 'Difference in differences' studies on 'natural experiments'. That is, we look at a policy change (the 'treatment') that occurs because of some outside factor (e.g. the central bank governor of a country has a heart attack, and is replaced with someone who holds very different views), and then we compare what happens in the country affected by the change with countries that are similar (the control group). Results obtained this way are almost exactly equivalent to experimental studies; difference in differences studies have been a real success story in economic analysis over the last couple of decades, confirming many things that were previously only suspected, and overturning many long held beliefs that turned out to be wrong. LK (talk) 11:28, 26 October 2009 (UTC)
- To Lawrencekhoo: Thanks for that information. Could you provide a link to somewhere that one could start to look at these "difference in difference" studies? An educational site or journal or whatever. JRSpriggs (talk) 04:35, 28 October 2009 (UTC)
- Sorry for delay in replying, I just noticed the query. This paper (although a bit dated) is a good introduction to the literature. This note from the NBER provides a good description of the methodology of Difference-in-Differences (DiD). It evolved from the analysis of natural experiment that were first suggested in the 1970's in response to worries about endogeneity in the models, and the inability of establishing causal relationships. There are many research papers using the DiD methods. Just do a google scholar search on "natural experiment" or "difference in differences". Regards LK (talk) 10:29, 6 November 2009 (UTC)
want you do to be a good student is that you also ways read you books and be a good student —Preceding unsigned comment added by 83.229.48.148 (talk) 11:32, 6 February 2010 (UTC)
Quantitative Easing
editRelated to this article, I flagged Quantitative easing as a WP:COATRACK for its advocacy of opposition to quantitative easing on the basis that this monetary policy creates money out of nothing. Please comment on Talk:Quantitative easing patsw (talk) 15:04, 29 March 2010 (UTC)
Is deflation bad or good?
editI made a small change to a new paragraph at the end of Monetary policy#Gold standard. The change had three parts: (1) I added the word "supposed" to a description of deflation as a major disadvantage of the gold standard; (2) I linked the word "deflation" to our article on that subject; and (3) I added "If unexpected," at the beginning of a sentence describing the alleged harm caused by deflation due to increasing the burden of debt. Lawrencekhoo (talk · contribs) reverted my edit, saying "This is standard economic theory.".
Standard theory or not, the fact is that deflation is good, not bad. I was merely trying to change the article to avoid implying a falsehood. The harm described by the paragraph is due not to deflation per se, but to an unexpected change from one economic policy (inflation) to another (deflation). If mild deflation persisted for an extended period so that people understood it and expected it, then the level of debt would be very low and not more burdensome than anticipated when people entered into it (unless they miscalculated, as they could just as easily under the current inflationary policy). JRSpriggs (talk) 00:11, 17 April 2010 (UTC)
History of Monetary Policy
edit"Research by Cass Business School has also suggested that perhaps it is the central bank policies of expansionary and contractionary policies that are causing the economic cycle; evidence can be found by looking at the lack of cycles in economies before central banking policies existed."
This seems like language designed to support a theory regarding the immorality of central banks. I take issue with the historical claim - historians of the Late Middle Ages agree that the late middle ages was a time of protracted recession. The statement that there was a "lack of cycles" in economics before central banks is ridiculous; war, famine, disease and coinage debasement, trade imbalances - just for examples - came and went in cycles. However, I am a history major not an econ major so it;s possible I am missing some nuances. At the very least this should be cited.
Sarah PB (talk) 05:34, 19 April 2010 (UTC)
- I've removed it as uncited POV OR. LK (talk) 07:54, 19 April 2010 (UTC)
Confusion
edit...I am trying to understand why the dollar loses value. In my accord the dollar is worth 100 pennies, and half is worth .50 cents. When a neighbor reconditions a lawnmower and sells it for more and has that price at a same balanced rate for the next year this is a good thing. Although the next year without knowing anything of the rise and cost of supply and demand that same person decides to up the sales price. This is now a consideration of inflation. Two streets over another neighbor realizes that inflation had been sneaking around the corner. he also is justified that the lawnmower salesman really did not know as much as he did. Unfortunately he fixed his own. That in a sense is a form of deflation. Saving money will always cause a sort of deflation. But when we spend and without realizing how much we spend, people who have more money will tend to do this, will allow others to notice. This notice is called demand. This now allows some to up there price. That is inflation. Money was used but theoretically it was not. Inflation is only determined when the evaluation of two countries has been evaluated. This evaluation is the effort of gathering all the price index categories and determining an average weight and balance of the cost in which "Had been" conducted. At this point and time money was being used but not in the actually calculation. Money will always be used. When the Federal Reserves Bank puts money into the economy it does it for a couple of reasons. One of them is that there is a shortage of funds in circulation. Any guess why. Probably a rise in the population. When this happens economists get the foot hold on this information and eventually after a sort of decline to a decline in value, in other words a balance these economist will level out the score as well. They will adjust to the rising "needs" of statistics and up the cost. This will more then happen when the lower level gets the information. This way competition has meaning although the first set price value will show up. So why are not we informed of the money collaboration. Why is it that the dollar will somehow loose value. Question now is what is the value of the dollar. If anyone can answer that all the power to you. And with that power share it as well. I know I'm waiting. This can be deleted by me at another time upon request. But please do the figuring here. What is inflation. It can't be the printing of money because not everyone knows how much that is. When you find out let us know. This way we can expect what we may get in money. If you were the most interesting person in the neighborhood and knew of it's growing capabilities you would start to build another taxi cab. That is inside information. That is also a form of inflation and a type of monetary system. When the neighborhood goes to the lofty wilderness, you will move with the move to find again a rise in demand and a rise in supply. Oops that was a rise in supply and a rise in demand. Remember no money as of yet has been exchanged. The proof lies in what you believe I know I read the original Article on Monetary Policy.David George DeLancey (talk) 20:12, 9 March 2011 (UTC)
- I am sorry, but your comment is so poorly written that I cannot make sense of it even after fixing your spelling. Please try harder to be clear. And make your comment shorter, if possible. Thank you. JRSpriggs (talk) 04:13, 10 March 2011 (UTC)
Incongruity in Money Aggregates Section
editIn the section "3.3 Money Aggregates", the article says that the money aggregates approach is sometimes also called monetarism and that Alan Greenspan discontinued it when he became Fed chairman. However, the introduction to the "Monetarism" article states that Alan Greenspan was a supporter of monetarism. Something is amiss here.
Bookish899 (talk) 04:53, 29 April 2011 (UTC)
- Alan Greenspan's position on monetary policy (among other issues) has changed over time. I believe that his support for monetarism was in an earlier period than his opposition (while Fed chairman). Perhaps it has changed back now that he is no longer beholden to the government.
- Remember that the crash of 1987 occurred very soon after his appointment as chairman. Prior to that he was tightening monetary policy (perhaps to conform to monetarism). The crash made it necessary for him to expand the money supply enormously to prevent mass bankruptcies. This may have been the impetus for his change in position, but I am just guessing. JRSpriggs (talk) 08:57, 29 April 2011 (UTC)
Merged Expansionary monetary policy and Contractionary monetary policy into this article
editThese articles were tagged with a tag dating back to January 2010. The content wasn't much different, other than a basic definition. The definitions were merged into this article, and both now redirect to here. WTF? (talk) 16:19, 2 June 2013 (UTC)
Control of the supply of money
editJaromir Benes and Michael Kumhof of the IMF Research Department, and Nobel Prize winning economists Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott, claim that central bank reserves lag, rather than lead, the money creation (/lending) cycle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_multiplier#Alternative_perspectives
If this is true, then monetary authorities of countries do not control the supply of money. All they can do is try to influence it by adjusting interest rates, to either encourage or discourage banks to borrow reserves from the central bank. Ultimately, the amount of reserves that commercial banks borrow is up to them, therefore commercial banks are ultimately in control of the money supply.
I was unable to access or find any information to the contrary, in either of the first two cited sources.
Missing History
editThere is a huge jump between the history of promisory notes in 7th century China to the creation of the Bank of England in the 18th century. Obviously, a lot is missing. Can an expert please fill this gap?
Paul K. Korir
Dr. Kuttner's comment on this article
editDr. Kuttner has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
There are so many problems with this article, it's hard to know where to begin. Let's start with the first paragraph.
"Monetary policy is the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, often targeting an inflation rate or interest rate to ensure price stability and general trust in the currency."
The problems: (1) "Controlling the money supply" is an antiquated concept. Modern central banks in developed countries pay virtually no attention to the money supply per se. In recent years, the focus has been on a near-term target for the short-term (usually overnight) rate of interest. (2) Targeting the interest rate is very different from targeting inflation. The latter is a "final target" or "objective," what the monetary authority ultimately cares about. The former is an "instrument" or "operating target," of interest to the monetary authority only to the extent that it influences the final target. (3) It is redundant to say that it "targets an inflation rate" to "ensure price stability" since the working definition of "price stability" is a "low and stable inflation rate." (3) What does "general trust in the currency mean anyway?
Second paragraph. "Further goals of a monetary policy are usually to contribute to economic growth and stability, to lower unemployment, and to maintain predictable exchange rates with other currencies."
(1) There is near-universal agreement that monetary policy cannot contribute to economic growth in the long run. (2) Stability of what? (3) There is obviously a limit to how far the unemployment rate can be lowered. (4) It is inaccurate to say a goal of monetary policy is *usually* to contribute to a predictable exchange rate, since all developed countries these days maintain a floating exchange rate and pay no attention to it. The exchange rate is an objective for a minority of countries. It would be better to say that "the two primary goals of monetary policy are usually to stabilize output and inflation and, in some countries, to manage the nominal exchange rate."
The third paragraph: "Monetary economics provides insight into how to craft optimal monetary policy." Monetary economics is about much more than crafting *optimal" monetary policy.
Fourth paragraph: "Monetary policy is referred to as either being expansionary or contractionary, where an expansionary policy increases the total supply of money in the economy more rapidly than usual, and contractionary policy expands the money supply more slowly than usual or even shrinks it. Expansionary policy is traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding. Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values."
Problems: (1) Again, the emphasis on the money supply is misplaced. A more modern ("Wicksellian") approach would be to say that an expansionary policy is when the monetary authority targets a nominal interest rate that is below its long-run equilibrium. (2) Low interest rates are not synonymous with "easy credit." It's true that expansionary policy can ease credit conditions, (e.g. via the bank lending channel) but this is separate from the interest rate channel of monetary transmission. (3) Low interest rates incentivize businesses *and households* to spend. (4) "Resulting distortions" is too vague. (5) The link between inflation and deteriorating asset values is unsubstantiated. It would be better to frame expansionary and contractionary policy in terms of the monetary authority's objectives of stabilizing output around its full-employment equilibrium and contain inflation.
Fourth paragraph: "Monetary policy differs from fiscal policy, which refers to taxation, government spending, and associated borrowing." True, but vague.
I could go on, but it would take all day! One of the howlers: "the Bretton Woods system still ensured that most nations would form the two policies separately." Bretton Woods had nothing to do with fiscal policy. Another: a policy tool is " increasing interest rates by fiat." Although modern central banks have a short-term interest rate target, it is generally set through market forces (hence the term "open market operations") rather than by fiat. (A footnote: in the current situation with the Fed raising the interest rate target when the banking system is saturated with reserves, one could describe the "floor" system as kind of like setting the rate by "fiat".)
I might add that the entry is disorganized and repetitive.
You get the idea. This article is "exhibit A" for why professors don't students use Wikipedia when they write papers.
If it were me, I would delete virtually the entire entry and start from scratch.
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
Dr. Kuttner has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference 1: Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2011. "How Flexible Can Inflation Targeting Be and Still Work?," Working Paper Series WP11-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Reference 2: Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Dr. Hamori's comment on this article
editDr. Hamori has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
I think that the document is well-written.
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
Dr. Hamori has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference : Inoue, Takeshi & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the money demand function in India," IDE Discussion Papers 166, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
Dr. Damjanovic's comment on this article
editDr. Damjanovic has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
It is an introductory article written on introductory level.There is no big mistakes, the selection of topics is random, some small strange sentences are here. For example, I would not say that by setting interest rate the central bank "manage money demand". Usually demand management is referred to the shift of demand curve , not to the shift along the curve.
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
Dr. Damjanovic has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference 1: Tatiana Damjanovic & Sarunas Girdenas, 2014. "Quantitative Easing and the Loan to Collateral Value Ratio," CDMA Working Paper Series 201405, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Reference 2: Tatiana Damjanovic & Vladislav Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2008. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation to Unconditionally Optimal Policy: The Distorted Steady-State," CDMA Working Paper Series 200804, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Reference 3: Tatiana Damjanovic & Vladislav Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2008. "Linear-Quadratic Approximation to Unconditionally Optimal Policy: The Distorted Steady-State," CDMA Working Paper Series 200804, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Reference 4: Tatiana Damjanovic & Vladislav Damjanovic & Charles Nolan, 2011. "Ordering policy rules with an unconditionalwelfare measure," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201102, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
Dr. Mihailov's comment on this article
editDr. Mihailov has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
This article is too detailed, and covers too many aspects, which makes it difficult to read - the reader may well feel just lost in the multiple layers and dimensions. Perhaps it could be shortened and made sharper by separating some sections as independent - but linked here - articles themselves, as it is the case with "Inflation Targeting2, for example? A recent survey attempting to present monetary theory, monetary policy and public finance in a dense classification scheme highlighting their intersections as well as specificity, with the key active strands of research outlined too, is Arestis, P. and Mihailov, A. (2011), "Classifying monetary economics: fields and methods from past to future", Journal of Economic Surveys, 25 (4), pp. 769-800; doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2010.00625.x. This reference is deliberately non-technical and, hence, useful for a less-specialised audience such as those referring to Wikipedia as a first instance. It could be added with a footnote at an appropriate place in the text, if deemed necessary?
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
Dr. Mihailov has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference : Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2008. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields and Methods from Past to Future," Economics & Management Discussion Papers em-dp2008-64, Henley Business School, Reading University.
Dr. McMahon's comment on this article
editDr. McMahon has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
"Expansionary policy is traditionally used to try to combat unemployment in a recession by lowering interest rates in the hope that easy credit will entice businesses into expanding. Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values." Many countries and economists focus on the price stability objective of monetary policy; in this case expansionary monetary policy is implemented to boost inflation back to target and its effect on boosting demand and employment are simply parts of the channel through which the effects come about.
"A central bank can only operate a truly independent monetary policy when the exchange rate is floating." Recent discussions in the field, especially by Helene Rey, suggest that the global financial cycle means that even with a floating exchange rate truly independent monetary policy is not feasible.
"For example, one simple method of inflation targeting called the Taylor rule adjusts the interest rate in response to changes in the inflation rate and the output gap. The rule was proposed by John B. Taylor of Stanford University." The Taylor rule is a reduced-form description of the way in which monetary policy makers adjust interest rates while trying to achieve an inflation target or other monetary objectives (it was first estimated for the US which did not have an inflation target at the time). It is not a "method of inflation targeting".
"However, the money supply growth rate is considered a weak policy, because there is no way to target real output growth, As a result, a higher output growth rate will result in a too low level of inflation. A low output growth rate will result in inflation that would be higher than the desired level." I think the biggest weakness with money supply targets is that they hold only in the long run and would lead to potentially large misses of inflation in the shorter term.
I would - if I were rewriting the article - add a full section on unconventional monetary policy and I would edit the "Policy tools" section (especially the bolded bullet subtitles) - they are not wrong but I didn't find it too clear.
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Dr. McMahon has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference : Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon & Andrea Prat, 2014. "Transparency and Deliberation within the FOMC: a Computational Linguistics Approach," Discussion Papers 1411, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
Dr. Faia's comment on this article
editDr. Faia has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The article misses the discussion on two aspects: monetary transmission mechanism and optimal monetary policy.
The monetary transmission mechanism describes how policy-induced changes in the nominal money stock or the short-term nominal interest rate impact real variables such as aggregate output and employment. In standard New Keynesian models of the 2000s the monetary transmission occurred primarily through nominal rigidities. Shocks to interest rates had an impact on demand to the extent that prices change sluggishly. An alternative type of transmission mechanism was related to limited participation, namely frictions that prevent households from adjusting their portfolio of liquid versus non-liquid assets. The latter mechanism can also be considered a nominal rigidity: as nominal rates change householdas adjust liquid assets slowly and this affects their consumption demand. Recently a new aspect of the monetary transmission mechanism has become prominent, namely the risk-taking channel. The latter has been initially discussed in Borio and Zhu Borio and Haibin Zhu, 2008 ( "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: a missing link in the transmission mechanism?," BIS Working Papers 268) and Rajan 2005 (Rajan, R (2005): “Has financial development made the world riskier?”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, no 11728) and has been formalized in a model by Angeloni and Faia 2013 ("Capital regulation and monetary policy with fragile banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 311-324) and Angeloni, Faia and Lo Duca 2015 ( "Monetary policy and risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 285-307.). The risk-taking channel refers to the impact of protratced low interest rate on the risk-taking incentives of intermediary. In particular in low interest rates environment intermediaries tend to leverage excessively in short term funding and tend to invest is high return/high risk assets (search for yield).
Optimal monetary policy is the design of the optimiyation problem by which the monetary policy chooses its instrument. The framework for the study of optimal monetary policy was laid down by Barro and Gordon 1983 ("Rules, Discretion and Reputation ina Model of Monetary Policy." Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 12) and Kydland and Prescott 1977 ("Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans". Journal of Political Economy). The optimization problem underlying this set-up was known as the lienar-quadratic approach (quadratic objectives and linear constraints). In the 2000s the linear-quadratic approach was developed further within the New Keynesian model by providing micro-foundations for the quadratic objective function (see Woodoford, 2003, Interest and Prices, Princeton University Press). Contemporaneously a parallel method for the study of optimal monetary policy in models with nominal rigidities was laid down by resorting on the Ramsey approach (see Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Sticky Prices, Journal of Economic Theory 114 (February 2004): in this context the monetary authority chooses the targets and also the plans of all variables in the economy by maximiying directly agents' utility subject to the constraints that characteriye the competitive economy. The Ramsey framework has had also many applications in models with real rigidities. For instance Faia 2009 (Ramsey Monetary Policy with Labor Market Frictions. Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 56(4), 570-581) studies Ramsey policies in a model with labour market frictions.
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Dr. Faia has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference 1: Ester Faia & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2009. "Labor Turnover Costs, Workers' Heterogeneity and Optimal Monetary Policy," Kiel Working Papers 1534, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Reference 2: Ignazio Angeloni & Ester Faia & Roland Winkler, 2011. "Exit Strategies," Kiel Working Papers 1676, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Dr. Angeloni's comment on this article
editDr. Angeloni has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The article does not contain discussions of the various aspects of the monetary tranmission channels and on the diffrences of monetary transmission across countries For discussion on how the monetary transsmission might difefren across countries see for instance Angeloni,Ignazio and Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642. Regarding the channels of the monetary transmission mechanisms. In standard New Keynesian models the transmission channel of monetary policy was primarily due to nominal rigidities: lowering the inetrest rate, in face of fixed prices, would increase demand by reducing monopolistic mark-ups. After the crisis it has been highlighted a new important channel of monetary policy transmission, namely the risk-taking channel (see Claudio Borio & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: a missing link in the transmission mechanism?," BIS Working Papers 268 or Rajan, R. 2005, Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? NBER w.p. 11728), according to which low interest rate create incentives for bank to underatke excessive risks. Banks tend to leverage excessively since short term funding is chaper than equity capital (see Angeloni, I. and E. Faia, 2013, Capital Regulation and Monetary Policy with Fragile Banks, with I. Angeloni. Journal of Monetary Economics, lead article, 60, 3, 311-382) and start to search for yields on the asset side.
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- Reference : Ignazio Angeloni & Ester Faia & Roland Winkler, 2011. "Exit Strategies," Kiel Working Papers 1676, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Dr. Yetman's comment on this article
editDr. Yetman has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The meat of the article is broadly correct in my view. The introduction could benefit from a definition of the money supply (a link to the wiki article would suffice: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply).
The discussion on unconventional monetary policy could be expanded, and some of the controversy over their use. Here are some references: http://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2015/12/7/unconventional-monetary-policy-through-the-feds-rear-view-mirror
http://voxeu.org/article/unconventional-monetary-policy-results-cfm-survey
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- Reference : Ken Miyajima & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Yetman, 2014. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 478, Bank for International Settlements.
Dr. Hayo's comment on this article
editDr. Hayo has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
I would not primarily define monetary policy in terms of 'the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money', as monetary policy also works through other channels than the money supply, e.g. the exchange rate, the credit channel or the cost channel. In fact, controlling expectations about the inflation rate has become an important aspect of monetary policy.
I would add a paragraph on central bank independence, as this will affect the way monetary policy is conducted. For instance: The possibility of a central bank to conduct appropriate monetary policy depends to some extent on its ability to independently decide on the necessary measures. This is sometimes called 'instrument independence'. If the central bank is granted even more independence, it may even be able to choose its own target ('goal independence').
Reference: Hayo, B. and C. Hefeker (2010) The Complex Relationship between Central Bank Independence and Inflation, with in: P. L. Siklos, M. T. Bohl, and M. E. Wohar (eds.), Challenges in Central Banking, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 179–217.
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- Reference : Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2014. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Times of Crises: A New Keynesian Perspective in Continuous Time," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201455, Philipps-Universitat Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
Dr. Dreger's comment on this article
editDr. Dreger has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The article is far too long, overburdened, should concentrate on specific issues, which could be discussed in a more deeply way: For instance, how is monetary policy implemented (interest rates, open market operations, reserve requirements), lags in monetary policy to influence the real side of the economy, relationships to asset markets and role in financial crisis, transmission of monetary impulses etc. Exchange rate pass through is of interest, but not for an introductory article on monetary policy. Same holds for relative PPP, monetary policy in developing countries, currency boards etc
China: Do they really target the exchange rate? The Renmimbi is determined by market forces after the recent IMF decision Taylor rules are quite popular in describing actual monetary policy (at least prior to the financial crisis), but they are not discussed
UMP measures are required if interest rates hit the lower bound. Impulses through monetary base might not be transmitted to monetary aggregates relevant for inflation
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We believe Dr. Dreger has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:
- Reference : Christian Dreger & Jurgen Wolters, 2009. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 860, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
Dr. Creel's comment on this article
editDr. Creel has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The last section, dedicated to unconventional monetary policy, could be updated. For instance, there is no mention to the possible effectiveness of these new measures, and no mention to the risks associated with these measures. Moreover, the debate is fierce among those who think that QE increases income or wealth inequality and those who argue the opposite.
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- Reference : Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2010. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed Monetary Policy Preferences?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
Dr. Carlsson's comment on this article
editDr. Carlsson has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
I think this piece goes in all directions, misses important parts of explaning the functioning of monetary policy, varies a lot i the technincal level of explanation, sometimes reads like an opinon piece and is way too long. I think you should give a wize man or woman in the field the mission of restarting the article and rewrite it. Suggestion of name below.
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- Reference 1: Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity," Working Paper Series 2007:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Reference 2: Carlsson, Mikael & Westermark, Andreas, 2012. "Labor-Market Frictions and Optimal Inflation," Working Paper Series 259, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
Dr. Tierney's comment on this article
editDr. Tierney has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EAjkiwkdpU1NKOwczAd_cHclvFa1nadwrJYBtrXghFg/edit?usp=sharing
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- Reference : Tierney, Heather L.R., 2011. "Forecasting and tracking real-time data revisions in inflation persistence," MPRA Paper 34439, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Dr. Vonnak's comment on this article
editDr. Vonnak has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
In the sentence "Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions and deterioration of asset values." the last term is difficult to understand ("deterioration of asset values"). I suggest to omit it, that is to replace the sentence with this one: "Contractionary policy is intended to slow inflation in order to avoid the resulting distortions."
Overview
Since monetary aggregates and targeting them became less important in conducting monetary policy during the past 20-30 years, I would rephrase the next sentence: "Where currency is under a monopoly of issuance, or where there is a regulated system of issuing currency through banks which are tied to a central bank, the monetary authority has the ability to alter the money supply and thus influence the interest rate (to achieve policy goals)." in the following way: "Where currency is under a monopoly of issuance, or where there is a regulated system of issuing currency through banks which are tied to a central bank, the monetary authority has the ability to alter the money supply and/or the interest rate to achieve policy goals." I am not an expert of economic history, but I have the impression that this statement is misleading: "The beginning of monetary policy as such comes from the late 19th century, where it was used to maintain the gold standard." because the monopoly of issuance had been existing for long before, and the policy of the issuer can be regarded as the monetary policy. This sentence could be thus deleted.
Theory General
I would discard the following part, because does not help understand the main message but may confuse the reader as, for example, with adaptive expectations there is no role for credibility, only past actions/outcomes: "(how those expectations which are formed is an entirely different matter; compare for instance rational expectations with adaptive expectations)" The following statement is generally not true: "Hence, if a policymaker's announcements regarding monetary policy are not credible, policy will not have the desired effect." My point is that even without credibility, monetary policy can be efficient, but usually at a higher price (the same reduction in inflation rate requires higher output/employment cost - this is called "sacrifice ratio"). So I would write instead: "Hence, if a policymaker's announcements regarding monetary policy are not credible, achieving policy goals will be more difficult." I would simplify (and hopefully make it more accurate) the following sentences: "This anticipation is fulfilled through adaptive expectation (wage-setting behavior);so, there is higher inflation (without the benefit of increased output). Hence, unless credible announcements can be made, expansionary monetary policy will fail." in the following way: "This anticipation results in wage increase; so, there will be higher inflation without the benefit of increased output. Hence, expansionary monetary policy will fail."
International economics
„The classical view holds that international macroeconomic interdependence is only relevant if it affects domestic output gaps and inflation, and monetary policy prescriptions can abstract from openness without harm.” Here reference to what output gap is missing (and „output gap” is more appropriate here and thereafter than „output gaps”).
Nominal anchor
In the table (types) there is a row for price level targeting. I have not heard about any central banks so far pursuing price level targeting. That row could be deleted, or it should be mentioned somewhere (for example in the „Price level targeting” section), that so far this regime is just a theoretical recommendation, similarly to nominal GDP targeting. This sentence makes no sense: „Targeting inflation, the price level or other monetary aggregates implies floating exchange rate unless the management of the relevant foreign currencies is tracking exactly the same variables (such as a harmonized consumer price index).” I suggest instead: „In inflation targeting regimes the exchange rate is usually allowed to float freely, or managed only to the extent of short term volatility smoothing.” The next paragraph (starting with „In economics, an expansionary fiscal policy...”) contains a lot of mistakes and has no focus at all. I suggest to drop it completely. This part is irrelevant, misleading, erroneous: „As the Fisher Effect model explains, the equation linking inflation with interest rates (both foreign and abroad) is the following: Π = i – r Where π is the inflation at home, i is the home interest rate set by the central bank, and r is the real world interest rate. Using i as an anchor, central banks can influence π. However, a necessary assumption for this equation to hold, is that the world real interest rate is constant. Central banks can choose to maintain a fixed interest rates at all times, or to keep a constant interest rate until the real world interest rate changes. The duration of this policy varies, because of the simplicity associated with changing the nominal interest rate.” It has nothong to do with the real practice of inflation targeting. I sugget to discard it. On the other hand, the main components of inflation targeting (regular publication of inflation forecast, inflation report, minutes etc.) are not mentioned, which would be important. The next part is misleading: „For example, one simple method of inflation targeting called the Taylor rule adjusts the interest rate in response to changes in the inflation rate and the output gap. The rule was proposed by John B. Taylor of Stanford University.”. No central banks conduct interest rate policy according to a Taylor rule. The Taylor rule is just an approximation of the central bank’s rate setting behavior and is used mainly for modelling purposes. The part describing monetary targeting suffers from several shortcomings: • Stable money growth rate can results in stable inflation only when the real output growth is stable, too. • The feature of this stable money growth, namely, that if real growth is high then inflation will be low, and vica versa, can be beneficial in some cases. This is similar to nominal GDP targeting rule (which is not mentioned here, but is at least as important theoretically as price level targeting), because demand shocks are dampened, while supply shocks are not. • The last paragraph is partly irrelevant, partly wrong. Wrong, because the main reason for central banks having abandoned monetary targeting rules is the unstable money demand, or velocity.
Fixed exchange rate targeting
I would use instead the title „Exchange rate targeting”, because in the case of crawling peg, the exchange rate is changing over time, even if in a predictable manner. The term „relative PPP” should be explained, because it is not very widely known. The practice of managed floating should also be mentioned here, because it appears in the next table.
Nominal Anchors: Overview
This paragraph is confusing. For example, the next statement is not true when the nominal anchor is the inflation target: „This, in turn, requires that the central bank abandons their monetary policy autonomy in the long run.” Noone would agree that inflation targeter central banks have no monetary policy autonomy. This section can be deleted.
Gold standard
This section should be among the other nominal anchors’ sections.
Policy tools
This chapter is a bit chaotic, contains things that should not be here, or are irrelevant: • The reserve requirement is not really used for monetary policy purposes • The currency board is an exchange rate regime, one of the most stricter ones, not really a tool. It is already mentioned among the anchors.
• The discount window lending is not independent of interest rate targetin. Actually, the former is one way to target short term ineterest rates.
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We believe Dr. Vonnak has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:
- Reference 1: Daniel Felcser & Balazs Vonnak, 2014. "Carry Trade, Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy," MNB Working Papers 2014/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- Reference 2: Judit Kreko & Csaba Balogh & Kristof Lehmann & Robert Matrai & Gyorgy Pulai & Balazs Vonnak, 2013. "International experiences and domestic opportunities of applying unconventional monetary policy tools," MNB Occasional Papers 2013/100, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
Big change
editThe article had a big change, see diff may be worth reviewing. Jonpatterns (talk) 14:28, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
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Perspectives
editShould this article mention various political perspectives? Benjamin (talk) 09:08, 2 May 2018 (UTC)
- Agreed. Political aspects might change the whole monetary policy within a short time. --Factspro (talk) 12:42, 19 March 2020 (UTC)
"Regime'" not the same as "policy"
editRegretfully, there is a REDIRECT from "Monetary regime" to this article that makes no sense at all. We should of course have a separate article titled "Monetary regime," since a regime is the whole monetary framework within which policies are applied. We don't have it yet but this is not a reason to have the two notions bundled into the same article, about policy. "Regime" and "policy" are distinctly different. -The Gnome (talk) 07:18, 9 July 2018 (UTC)
Tight money redirects here but isn't used anywhere in the article. Can a mention (ideally a definition) be added, so the reader who searches the term is taken to what they're looking for? Or should the redirect be converted to a soft-redirect to wikt:tight money? – Arms & Hearts (talk) 17:07, 9 December 2020 (UTC)
Proposal to remove many of the redundant images of Central Banks
editHi! I am writing this section in order to try and create some consensus regarding the multiple images of Central Banks in the article. I believe that a few of them (such as the collage I added to the top of the page) are useful to getting a better understanding of the topic, but the section on monetary policy instruments is quite bloated with images of Central Banks. I believe this section would be much better served by graphs and diagrams of the concepts described—an image of the Bank of Finland does little to educate on reserve requirements. Please let me know what you think!
An alternative is to place these images in a gallery for de-cluttering but I think this would again not do much to improve the value of the article.--A. C. Santacruz ⁂ Talk 09:21, 26 August 2021 (UTC)
- Of course, they should be added in sections where the bank is mentioned by name and the instrument is hard to describe through images. --A. C. Santacruz ⁂ Talk 09:41, 26 August 2021 (UTC)
Macro economic variables such as inflation rate,monetary policy rate and exchange rate are 21.47%, 16.5% and #446.46 respectively. Explain how new naira notes will effects these variables
editAbout Nigeria 105.112.22.119 (talk) 04:39, 21 December 2022 (UTC)