Talk:Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election/Archives/2014/January
 | This is an archive of past discussions about Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election. Do not edit the contents of this page. If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the current talk page. |
Swingometer
Would it be worth having some kind of "swingometer" on this article that converts opinion poll results to the election results? AndrewRT(Talk) 22:45, 11 November 2013 (UTC)
- Converting opinion poll results to election results is a tricky process, given the workings of our first-past-the-post system. Given that, I don't think we can do something ourselves without straying into original research territory. However, we could say something about the issue in the article and include information from reliable sources when they provide it. Bondegezou (talk) 11:15, 12 November 2013 (UTC)
- Although I designed a swingometer in my time (a proper two-way one), it doesn't take into account the Lib Dem plunge and the UKIP rise. I would say possibly - it wouldn't be OR because it's surely a simple (!) mathematical calculation? Spa-Franks (talk) 11:27, 12 November 2013 (UTC)
- A summary of swing would probably not be OR, but AndrewRT was suggesting something that "converts opinion poll results to the election results", which does seem like OR to me. Bondegezou (talk) 13:50, 12 November 2013 (UTC)
- IMO using standard swing to result conversion wouldn't be at all OR, but would have the same problems as usual (ie, needing parties to get negative votes in some places)....mebe citing the UKPR projection could work....92.1.33.48 (talk) 10:37, 8 January 2014 (UTC)
- A summary of swing would probably not be OR, but AndrewRT was suggesting something that "converts opinion poll results to the election results", which does seem like OR to me. Bondegezou (talk) 13:50, 12 November 2013 (UTC)
- Although I designed a swingometer in my time (a proper two-way one), it doesn't take into account the Lib Dem plunge and the UKIP rise. I would say possibly - it wouldn't be OR because it's surely a simple (!) mathematical calculation? Spa-Franks (talk) 11:27, 12 November 2013 (UTC)
Missed polls
I noticed a missing poll & added it to table. I suspect others are also missing, makes me wonder about the accuracy of the graph if it is based upon the table. 92.1.34.252 (talk) 19:46, 15 October 2013 (UTC)
- Which poll was it? I have been checking on ukpollingreport and politicalbetting but there are occasionally polls which slip under the radar (e.g. one recently done by Survation for the Free Speech Network). But it's a wiki page so always open for any reader to update it.
- Saxmund (talk) 20:00, 3 January 2014 (UTC)
- This one.
- http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Data-Tables-MOS-13102013.pdf
- Aye, an I did....but I wouldn'ta noticed if I hadn't been looking. Shame there ain't some complete listing, but reckon anyone seeking such'd come here. No solution springs to mind. 92.1.33.48 (talk) 10:34, 8 January 2014 (UTC)
- I think Survation is the main culprit, they often seem to bury VI polls in polls about other things. We need to look out for a monthly poll by them - it looks like they like to do one every month even if they haven't been commissioned by a newspaper to publish the VI results.Saxmund (talk) 10:37, 12 January 2014 (UTC)
Individual Seat Polling
This was discussed earlier on the general election page. Recently there has been a trend towards polling individual seats, while still in its infancy, its clear that individual seat polls are only getting more common, in the run up to the Eastleigh by election last year for example their were 5 polls conducted.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Great-Grimsby-Report.pdf http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Dudley-North-Report.pdf http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Great-Yarmouth-Report.pdf http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/South-Thanet-Constituency-Poll.pdf http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Folkestone-Hythe-Report.pdf http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Crewe-Nantwich-Report.pdf http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Bognor-Regis-Littlehampton-Report.pdf
Their have also been at least 7 polls conducted on behalf of UKIP donor Alan Bown (although using reputable pollster Survation)
I think that these should be added to this page, under the Northern Ireland section.
All of these polls were conducted independently of UKIP and none actually predict a UKIP 1st place. As we get closer to the general election more polls like these are likely to pop up and creating a section for them seems like the best thing to do.
Is everyone OK if I go ahead and make that new section Guyb123321 (talk) 16:57, 11 January 2014 (UTC)
- I've added some of those to the relevant constituency pages and I wonder whether that isn't the better way to go. That's where they're relevant. Bondegezou (talk) 18:17, 12 January 2014 (UTC)