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Having a look at the Oxford English Dictionary, which gives earliest uses for:
ballon d'essai : "project or piece of policy put forward to test the feeling or attitude of a person or body of people, experimental measure or proposal, transferred use of ballon d'essai trial balloon (1835 in both the lit. and fig. senses)". Their ealiest quote listed is "1858: Times 26 Apr. 10/3 The dismissal of the Director..might have been a hasty act of indiscretion, or even a ballon d'essai, to find out which way the popular wind blew."
trial balloon: Earliest quote"1939 Sun (Baltimore) 21 Apr. 3/4 Congressional moves to bar alliance members from relief funds are in the ‘trial balloon’ stage."
kite-flying (this meaning): "1898 ‘A. Hope’ in Daily News 4 Apr. 7/1 Principally it [sc. the press interview] was said to be used as a means of what might be called kite-flying".
So, it looks the use of the French phrase is oldest, with American use translating it literally from at least 1939. In the UK, "kite-flying" was more popular (from 1898), although the term kite-flying had a quite different use in the UK for most of the 19th century: "The raising of money (a) by persons collusively exchanging accommodation bills or cheques on different banks, in none of which they possess sufficient funds; (b) by one person transferring accounts between banks and creating an illusory balance against which he cashes cheques; (c) by a person passing forged, stolen, or unbacked cheques." (with quotes from 1834).
Overall, my feeling is that it is worth merging Trial balloon and Kite-flying (politics) as the overlap seems great. Nevertheless, which heading to use is more difficult. Perhaps "Trial balloon" given that is the current form of use in English of the oldest form (ballon d'essai). Klbrain (talk) 23:45, 20 November 2016 (UTC) DoneReply