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2008 United States presidential election in Colorado

(Redirected from U.S. presidential election, 2008, in Colorado)

Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 4, 2008, as a part of the 2008 United States presidential election throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Colorado
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,288,633 1,073,629
Percentage 53.66% 44.71%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Colorado was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a margin of victory of 8.95%. Obama took 53.66% of the vote to McCain's 44.71%. The state was heavily targeted by both campaigns, although, prior to the election, all 17 news organizations actually considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a likely blue state. While George W. Bush narrowly carried the state in 2004, Colorado ultimately flipped to Obama. This was the first time since 1992 in which the state was won by a Democrat in a presidential election, as well as the first of currently four consecutive times since 1944 in which it voted differently than Montana, another rocky mountain state.

Key to Obama's victory was Democratic dominance in the Denver area, sweeping not just the city but also the heavily populated suburban counties around Denver, particularly Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson counties, as well as winning Larimer County, home to Fort Collins. Obama also took over 70% of the vote in Boulder County, home to Boulder. McCain's most populated county wins were in El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located, and Weld County, home to Greeley.

Colorado served as the tipping-point state for Obama's overall victory in the presidential election - that is, the first state to give a candidate their 270th electoral vote when all states are arranged by their margins of victory.

Caucuses

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely D (flip)
Cook Political Report[2] Lean D (flip)
The Takeaway[3] Lean D (flip)
Electoral-vote.com[4] Lean D (flip)
Washington Post[5] Lean D (flip)
Politico[6] Lean D (flip)
RealClearPolitics[7] Lean D (flip)
FiveThirtyEight[5] Solid D (flip)
CQ Politics[8] Lean D (flip)
The New York Times[9] Lean D (flip)
CNN[10] Lean D (flip)
NPR[5] Lean D (flip)
MSNBC[5] Lean D (flip)
Fox News[11] Likely D (flip)
Associated Press[12] Likely D (flip)
Rasmussen Reports[13] Lean D (flip)

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Colorado

Pre-election polling taken in Colorado prior to the election mostly showed Obama with a slight lead. He led every poll after September 25. The average of the last three polls showed Obama leading McCain 52% to 45%.[14]

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $3,491,086. Barack Obama raised almost $11 million.[15]

Advertising and visits

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Obama and his interest groups spent $10,410,669. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,818,077.[16] McCain/Palin visited the state 13 times. Obama/Biden visited the state 8 times.[17]

Analysis

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Main article: Politics of Colorado

Changing demographics and a growing Hispanic population made the state more favorable to the Democrats, although Republicans still had a hold on the state due to the party's conservative stances on social issues like abortion, gay rights, and gun control. Like most of the Mountain West, Colorado had been traditionally Republican beginning with the Eisenhower landslide of 1952, in which Eisenhower overperformed throughout the region. Between 1952 and 2004, inclusive, Democrats prevailed in Colorado only in 1964 and 1992—the former, a national Democratic landslide; the latter, a three-way contest in which independent candidate Ross Perot had disproportionate strength in the West. In addition, Republicans had mostly held control of the state legislature and most statewide offices since the 1960s. Although Democrats had bases of support in Adams and Pueblo Counties and in the south of the state, and generally carried Denver (albeit often by narrow margins), this was generally no match for Republican dominance of the Denver suburbs, El Paso County (Colorado Springs), Larimer County (Fort Collins), and, until Dukakis flipped it in 1988, Boulder County, as well as of most of the rural areas of the state.

Recently, however, there had been a growing population of Hispanic Americans,[18] young professionals, and an influx of people from other states - all of whom tend to vote Democratic. These demographic changes caused the state's political ideology to shift.[19] While Republicans still enjoyed an advantage in voter registration statewide, Democrats had been closing the gap. There had also been an increasing number of unaffiliated, independent-minded voters.[20] Since 2004, Democrats had won the governorship, both Senate seats, three House seats, and control of both chambers in the state legislature.

At the presidential level, Colorado voted for Bush by 8.36% in 2000, making it the second-closest of the states carried by Dole in 1996 (behind only Virginia). Moreover, his 50.75% vote share was his lowest in any of the states carried by Dole in 1996, with Ralph Nader posting a relatively strong showing in the state in 2000. Colorado was not seriously contested in 2004, but Kerry cut Bush's margin down to 4.67% in the state, as Kerry flipped a number of ski-resort counties, scored the best showings in Denver and Boulder County of any presidential nominee in decades, and narrowed Bush's margins in the Denver-area suburban counties of Jefferson and Arapahoe, as well as in Larimer.

Bush's relatively narrow margin in the state in 2004, along with the demographic changes of the prior four years, led Colorado to become a crucial swing state in 2008. Both Barack Obama and John McCain campaigned extensively in the state. Several factors in the campaign favored the Democrat. Barack Obama did very well in the caucus, defeating opponent Hillary Clinton with almost 67% of the vote. On the other hand, John McCain badly lost the state to opponent Mitt Romney, who gained 60% of the vote. Moreover, the 2008 Democratic National Convention was held in Denver. The publicity generated from the event provided a strong boost to Obama. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Obama and McCain were neck-to-neck through the summer and early September. However, as the 2008 financial crisis hit, Obama's numbers in Colorado jumped to over 50%.[21]

During the campaign, several media organizations reported on voting machine problems. There was also reporting on the controversial practice of "purging" voter registration lists.[22]

On election day, Obama won by a comfortable margin, greater than his national average. Obama improved on John Kerry's performance throughout the state. He won landslides in the Democratic strongholds of Denver and Boulder; in both areas, Obama took more than 70% of the vote. He also further built upon Kerry's strength in a number of rich counties dominated by ski resorts along the Front Range; and continued to dominate the traditionally Democratic areas of Pueblo County, Adams County, and the thinly populated, Latino counties of southern Colorado.

McCain did best in the rural, conservative areas next to Kansas and Utah, where he won by landslide margins. In Rio Blanco County, Mesa County, Yuma County, Washington County, Lincoln County, Bent County, Crowley County, and tiny Dolores County, Phillips County, Cheyenne County, and Kiowa County, he managed a slightly greater vote share than Bush in 2000. Voters in more populated El Paso County, home to conservative Colorado Springs, gave McCain a 19% margin, which, while a comfortable win, was far less than Bush's 35% margin in 2004. McCain also won two other relatively populated counties, Douglas County and Weld County, both outer suburbs of the Denver area—although, again, by substantially reduced margins compared to Bush in 2004. However, the largest suburban counties of the area, traditionally Republican Jefferson, Larimer, and Arapahoe Counties voted Democratic for the first time since 1964. Broomfield County, which cast its first presidential vote for Bush in 2004, also flipped to Obama. Altogether, this was more than enough to overcome Republican advantages elsewhere in the state, as Obama won it by a nearly nine-point margin.

Elsewhere in the state, Democrats also did well. Democrat Mark Udall defeated Republican Bob Schaffer for an open U.S. Senate seat; his vacated House seat was also won by Democrat Jared Polis. In addition, Democrat Betsy Markey defeated incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave, by 12 points for Colorado's 4th Congressional District seat. At the state level, Democrats picked up one seat in the Colorado Senate, but lost two seats in the Colorado House of Representatives.

Obama's 65.8% victory in Summit County was the highest percentage win by a Democratic presidential nominee in the county since Woodrow Wilson won the county with 70.3% of the vote back in 1916.

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in Colorado[23]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,288,633 53.66% 9
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,073,629 44.71% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 13,352 0.56% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 10,898 0.45% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 6,233 0.26% 0
America's Independent Alan Keyes Brian Rohrbough 3,051 0.13% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 2,822 0.12% 0
New American Independent Frank McEnulty David Mangan 829 0.03% 0
Boston Tea Charles Jay Dan Sallis Jr. 598 0.02% 0
HeartQuake '08 Jonathan Allen Jeffrey Stath 348 0.01% 0
Objectivist Tom Stevens Alden Link 336 0.01% 0
Socialist Brian Moore Stewart Alexander 226 0.01% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear 158 0.01% 0
Socialist Workers James Harris Alyson Kennedy 154 0.01% 0
Pacifist Bradford Lyttle Abraham Bassford 110 <0.01% 0
Prohibition Gene Amondson Leroy Pletten 85 <0.01% 0
Totals 2,401,462 100.00% 9
Voter turnout 65.0%

By county

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County Barack Obama
Democratic 		John McCain
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 93,445 58.22% 63,976 39.86% 3,080 1.92% 29,469 18.36% 160,501
Alamosa 3,521 56.01% 2,635 41.92% 130 2.07% 886 14.09% 6,286
Arapahoe 148,224 55.69% 113,868 42.78% 4,064 1.53% 34,356 12.91% 266,156
Archuleta 2,836 42.81% 3,638 54.91% 151 2.28% -802 -12.10% 6,625
Baca 536 24.64% 1,572 72.28% 67 3.08% -1,036 -47.64% 2,175
Bent 799 41.61% 1,077 56.09% 44 2.29% -278 -14.48% 1,920
Boulder 124,159 72.29% 44,904 26.14% 2,700 1.57% 79,255 46.15% 171,763
Broomfield 16,168 54.89% 12,757 43.31% 528 1.79% 3,411 11.58% 29,453
Chaffee 4,862 49.01% 4,873 49.12% 186 2.28% -11 -0.11% 9,921
Cheyenne 198 17.82% 890 80.11% 23 2.07% -692 -62.29% 1,111
Clear Creek 3,332 57.78% 2,300 39.88% 135 2.34% 1,032 17.90% 5,767
Conejos 2,154 55.60% 1,653 42.67% 67 1.73% 501 12.93% 3,874
Costilla 1,245 73.36% 415 24.45% 37 2.28% 830 48.91% 1,697
Crowley 552 35.43% 976 62.64% 30 1.93% -424 -27.21% 1,558
Custer 912 34.69% 1,672 63.60% 45 1.71% -760 -28.91% 2,629
Delta 5,084 32.94% 10,067 65.23% 283 1.83% -4,983 -32.29% 15,434
Denver 204,882 75.45% 62,567 23.04% 4,084 1.50% 142,315 52.41% 271,533
Dolores 369 30.32% 818 67.21% 30 2.47% -449 -36.89% 1,217
Douglas 61,960 40.81% 88,108 58.03% 1,751 1.15% -26,148 -17.22% 151,819
Eagle 13,191 60.91% 8,181 37.77% 286 1.32% 5,010 23.14% 21,658
El Paso 108,899 39.86% 160,318 58.69% 3,958 1.45% -51,419 -18.83% 273,175
Elbert 3,819 28.92% 9,108 68.97% 279 2.11% -5,289 -40.05% 13,206
Fremont 6,844 34.36% 12,668 63.60% 407 2.04% -5,824 -29.24% 19,919
Garfield 11,357 49.20% 11,359 49.21% 366 1.59% -2 -0.01% 23,082
Gilpin 1,990 59.07% 1,283 38.08% 96 2.85% 707 20.99% 3,369
Grand 4,037 48.59% 4,128 49.68% 144 1.73% -91 -1.09% 8,309
Gunnison 5,557 62.64% 3,131 35.29% 183 2.06% 2,426 27.35% 8,871
Hinsdale 240 40.07% 344 57.43% 15 2.50% -104 -17.36% 599
Huerfano 1,989 54.60% 1,580 43.37% 74 2.03% 409 11.23% 3,643
Jackson 277 30.31% 624 68.27% 13 1.42% -347 -37.96% 914
Jefferson 158,158 53.60% 131,628 44.61% 5,282 1.79% 26,530 8.99% 295,068
Kiowa 178 20.89% 650 76.29% 24 2.82% -472 -55.40% 852
Kit Carson 912 26.50% 2,455 71.32% 75 2.18% -1,543 -44.82% 3,442
La Plata 16,057 57.39% 11,503 41.11% 419 1.50% 4,554 16.28% 27,979
Lake 1,859 61.93% 1,078 35.91% 65 2.17% 781 26.02% 3,002
Larimer 89,823 53.99% 73,642 44.26% 2,910 1.75% 16,181 9.73% 166,375
Las Animas 3,562 52.68% 3,086 45.64% 113 1.67% 476 7.04% 6,761
Lincoln 546 23.70% 1,717 74.52% 41 1.78% -1,171 -50.82% 2,304
Logan 2,846 31.70% 6,002 66.86% 129 1.44% -3,156 -35.16% 8,977
Mesa 24,008 34.48% 44,578 64.02% 1,045 1.50% -20,570 -29.54% 69,631
Mineral 270 43.34% 334 53.61% 19 3.05% -64 -10.27% 623
Moffat 1,582 26.95% 4,135 70.43% 154 2.62% -2,553 -43.48% 5,871
Montezuma 4,661 39.42% 6,961 58.87% 203 1.72% -2,300 -19.45% 11,825
Montrose 6,495 33.91% 12,199 63.69% 459 2.40% -5,704 -29.78% 19,153
Morgan 3,813 37.26% 6,272 61.29% 149 1.46% -2,459 -24.03% 10,234
Otero 3,547 43.98% 4,393 54.47% 125 1.55% -846 -10.49% 8,065
Ouray 1,636 53.46% 1,367 44.67% 57 1.86% 269 8.79% 3,060
Park 4,250 45.29% 4,896 52.18% 237 2.53% -646 -6.89% 9,383
Phillips 622 27.51% 1,613 71.34% 26 1.15% -991 -43.83% 2,261
Pitkin 7,349 73.74% 2,484 24.92% 133 1.33% 4,865 48.82% 9,966
Prowers 1,487 32.22% 3,043 65.94% 85 1.84% -1,556 -33.72% 4,615
Pueblo 41,097 56.74% 30,257 41.78% 1,073 1.48% 10,840 14.96% 72,427
Rio Blanco 655 20.81% 2,437 77.44% 55 1.75% -1,782 -56.63% 3,147
Rio Grande 2,448 44.97% 2,930 53.82% 66 1.21% -482 -8.85% 5,444
Routt 8,270 62.66% 4,725 35.80% 204 1.55% 3,545 26.86% 13,199
Saguache 1,730 62.91% 956 34.76% 64 2.33% 774 28.15% 2,750
San Juan 264 53.23% 218 43.95% 14 1.92% 46 9.28% 496
San Miguel 3,349 76.99% 933 21.45% 68 1.56% 2,416 55.54% 4,350
Sedgwick 468 34.64% 857 63.43% 26 1.92% -389 -28.79% 1,351
Summit 9,802 65.79% 4,883 32.77% 214 1.44% 4,919 33.02% 14,899
Teller 4,513 34.97% 8,146 63.12% 247 1.91% -3,633 -28.15% 12,906
Washington 529 21.05% 1,949 77.56% 35 1.39% -1,420 -56.51% 2,513
Weld 47,292 44.67% 56,526 53.39% 2,048 1.93% -9,234 -8.72% 105,866
Yuma 1,117 24.92% 3,286 73.30% 80 1.78% -2,169 -48.38% 4,483
Total 1,288,633 53.66% 1,073,629 44.71% 39,200 1.63% 215,004 8.95% 2,401,462
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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While Barack Obama won the state's popular vote and 9 electoral votes, John McCain carried 4 of the state's 7 congressional districts, including two seats held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 24.25% 74.20% Diana DeGette
2nd 34.10% 64.22% Mark Udall (110th Congress)
Jared Polis (111th Congress)
3rd 50.44% 47.90% John Salazar
4th 49.54% 48.66% Marilyn Musgrave (110th Congress)
Betsy Markey (111th Congress)
5th 58.57% 39.89% Doug Lamborn
6th 52.48% 46.17% Tom Tancredo (110th Congress)
Mike Coffman (111th Congress)
7th 39.49% 58.56% Ed Perlmutter

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Obama and Biden:

  1. Wellington Webb
  2. Terry Phillips
  3. Camilla Auger
  4. Pam Shaddock
  5. Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez
  6. Don Strickland
  7. Ann Knollman
  8. Polly Baca
  9. Margaret Atencio

References

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  1. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  2. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  7. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  9. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ "2008 - Colorado: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolitics".
  15. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 3, 2009.
  16. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ Schaller, Thomas. Past Dixie. Simon & Schuster, 2006. 184.
  19. ^ Schaller, Thomas. Whistling Past Dixie. Simon & Schuster, 2006.
  20. ^ "Obama, McCain look west". Rocky Mountain News. June 7, 2008. Retrieved June 7, 2008.
  21. ^ RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Colorado: McCain vs. Obama
  22. ^ Williams, David (August 27, 2008). "Palast uses DNC to tout 'Steal Back Your Vote' project". Colorado Independent. Archived from the original on October 16, 2008. Retrieved October 24, 2008.
  23. ^ "Colorado 2008 General Election". The Green Papers. Retrieved October 12, 2008.
  24. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
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