2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. This election coincided with a gubernatorial election, U.S. House elections and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Tammy Baldwin won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary.[1]
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Turnout | 61.2% | ||||||||||||||||
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Baldwin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vukmir: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Democratic primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Tammy Baldwin, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Endorsements
editU.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-present)[3]
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Senator from Illinois (2017-present)[4]
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997-present), Senate Minority Whip (2015-2021)[5]
- Russ Feingold, former U.S. Senator from Wisconsin (1993-2011)[6]
- Al Franken, former U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2009-2018)[7]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California (2017-2021)[8]
- Maggie Hassan, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (2017-present)[9]
- Doug Jones, U.S. Senator from Alabama (2018-2021)[10]
- Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada (2017-present)[11]
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009-present)[12]
- Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan (2015-present)[13]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007-present) (Independent)[14]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013-present)[15]
- Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. Senator from Rhode Island (2007-present)[16]
Organizations
- Council for a Livable World[17]
- Democracy for America[18]
- EMILY's List[19]
- End Citizens United[20]
- J Street[21]
- League of Conservation Voters[22]
- LegitAction[23]
- MoveOn.org[24]
- National Organization for Women[25]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[26]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[27]
- Sierra Club[22]
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 510,812 | 99.64% | |
Write-in | 1,848 | 0.36% | ||
Total votes | 512,660 | 100% |
Republican primary
editCandidates
editNominee
edit- Leah Vukmir, state senator and State Senate Assistant Majority Leader[29]
Eliminated in primary
edit- Charles Barman[30]
- Griffin Jones[31]
- George Lucia[32]
- Kevin Nicholson, businessman and member of the Wisconsin Board of Veterans Affairs[33]
Declined
edit- David Clarke, former Milwaukee County Sheriff[34][35]
- Sean Duffy, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)[36][37]
- Scott Fitzgerald, State Senate Majority Leader[36]
- Mike Gallagher, U.S. Representative[36]
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. Representative[36]
- Eric Hovde, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[36][38]
- Rebecca Kleefisch, Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin[39]
- Dale Kooyenga, state representative[36]
- Nicole Schneider, businesswoman[40][41]
- Duey Stroebel, state senator[42]
- Charlie Sykes, talk radio host[43]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (running for reelection)[44]
Endorsements
editFederal officials
- Steve Bannon, White House Chief Strategist (2017), executive chairman of Breitbart News[45]
- John Bolton, 25th Ambassador to the United Nations (2005-2006)[46]
U.S. Senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013-present)[47]
- Mike Lee, U.S. Senator from Utah (2011-present)[48]
State legislators
- Jesse Kremer, state assemblyman from the 59th district (2015-2019)[49]
- David Zien, state senator from the 23rd district (1993-2007)[50]
Organizations
- Club for Growth[51]
- FreedomWorks[52]
- Great America PAC[53]
- Madison Project[54]
- Senate Conservatives Fund[55]
- Tea Party Patriots[56]
- Wisconsin Family Action[57]
- Wisconsin Right to Life[58]
Newspapers
Federal officials
- Reince Priebus, 27th White House Chief of Staff (2017)[60]
U.S. Representatives
- Sean Duffy, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2011-2019)[61]
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 6th congressional district (2015-present)[62]
- Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House (2015-2019), U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (1999-2019)[63]
- Jim Sensenbrenner, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 5th congressional district (2003-2021)[63]
State officials
- Matt Adamczyk, 35th State Treasurer of Wisconsin (2015-2019)[64]
- Margaret Farrow, 42nd Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin (2001-2003)[65]
State legislators
- Scott Allen, state assemblyman from the 97th district (2015-present)[64]
- Joan Ballweg, state assemblywoman from the 41st district (2005-2021)[64]
- Kathy Bernier, state assemblywoman from the 68th district (2011-2019)[64]
- Mark Born, state assemblyman from the 39th district (2013-present)[66]
- Janel Brandtjen, state assemblyman from the 22nd district (2015-present)[64]
- Ed Brooks, state assemblyman from the 50th district (2009-2019)[66]
- Robert Brooks, state assemblyman from the 60th district (2015-present)[64]
- Dave Craig, state senator from the 28th district (2017-2021)[67]
- Alberta Darling, state senator from the 8th district (1993-2022)[68]
- Mary Felzkowski, state assemblywoman from the 35th district (2013-2021)[69]
- Dan Feyen, state senator from the 18th district (2017-present)[64]
- Scott Fitzgerald, Wisconsin State Senate Majority Leader (2013-2021), state senator from the 13th district (1995-2021)[36]
- Rick Gundrum, state assemblyman from the 58th district (2018-present)[66]
- Cody Horlacher, state assemblyman from the 33rd district (2015-2023)[64]
- André Jacque, state assemblyman from the 2nd district (2011-2019)[64]
- John Jagler, state assemblyman from the 37th district (2013-2021)[64]
- Adam M. Jarchow, state assemblyman from the 28th district (2015-2019)[64]
- Dan Kapanke, state senator from the 32nd district (2005-2011)[64]
- Terry Katsma, state assemblyman from the 26th district (2015-present)[64]
- Samantha Kerkman, state assemblywoman from the 61st district (2013-2022)[64]
- Joel Kitchens, state assemblyman from the 1st district (2015-present)[64]
- Joel Kleefisch, state assemblyman from the 38th district (2005-2019)[70]
- Dan Knodl, state assemblyman from the 24th district (2009-present)[64]
- Dean Knudson, state assemblyman from the 30th district (2011-2017)[64]
- Scott Krug, state assemblyman from the 72nd district (2011-present)[64]
- Mike Kuglitsch, state assemblyman from the 84th district (2011-2022)[64]
- Bob Kulp, state assemblyman from the 69th district (2013-2021)[64]
- Mary Lazich, Wisconsin Senate President (2015-2017), state senator from the 28th district (1998-2017)[64]
- Devin LeMahieu, state senator from the 9th district (2015-present)[64]
- Amy Loudenbeck, state assemblywoman from the 31st district (2013-2023), 45th district (2011-2013)[64]
- John Macco, state assemblyman from the 88th district (2015-present)[66]
- Howard Marklein, Wisconsin Senate President Pro Tempore (2017-2021), state senator from the 17th district (2015-present)[64]
- Dave Murphy, state assemblyman from the 56th district (2013-present)[64]
- Stephen Nass, state senator from the 11th district (2015-present)[64]
- Adam Neylon, state senator from the 98th district (2013-present)[64]
- John Nygren, state assemblyman from the 89th district (2007-2020)[64]
- Luther Olsen, state senator from the 14th district (2005-2021)[64]
- Jim Ott, state assemblyman from the 23rd district (2007-2021)[64]
- Jerry Petrowski, state senator from the 29th district (2012-present)[64]
- Treig Pronschinske, state assemblyman from the 92nd district (2017-present)[69]
- Romaine Quinn, state assemblywoman from the 75th district (2015-2021)[64]
- Mike Rohrkaste, state assemblyman from the 55th district (2015-2021)[64]
- Roger Roth, Wisconsin Senate President (2017-2021), state senator from the 19th district (2015-present)[66]
- Joe Sanfelippo, state assemblyman from the 15th district (2013-2023)[64]
- Michael Schraa, state assemblyman from the 53rd district (2013-present)[64]
- Ken Skowronski, state assemblyman from the 82nd district (2014-2023)[64]
- Patrick Snyder, state assemblyman from the 85th district (2017-present)[64]
- John Spiros, state assemblyman from the 86th district (2013-present)[64]
- Rob Stafsholt, state assemblyman from the 29th district (2017-2021)[64]
- David Steffen, state assemblyman from the 4th district (2015-present)[71]
- Jim Steineke, Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (2015-2022), state assemblyman from the 5th district (2011-2022)[64]
- Duey Stroebel, state senator from the 20th district (2015-present)[42]
- Rob Swearingen, state assemblyman from the 34th district (2013-present)[69]
- Gary Tauchen, state assemblyman from the 6th district (2007-2023)[64]
- Patrick Testin, state senator from the 24th district (2017-present)[64]
- Jeremy Thiesfeldt, state assemblyman from the 52nd district (2011-2023)[64]
- Travis Tranel, state assemblyman from the 49th district (2011-present)[72]
- Van Wanggaard, state senator from the 21st district (2015-present)[73]
- Tom Weatherston, state assemblyman from the 62nd district (2013-2019)[64]
- Chuck Wichgers, state assemblyman from the 83rd district (2017-2023)[64]
- Shannon Zimmerman, state assemblyman from the 30th district (2017-present)[64]
Local officials
- Dave Ament, Mayor of New Berlin[64]
- David Beth, Kenosha County Sheriff[64]
- Christopher Bossert, Washington County Supervisor[66]
- John Bulawa, Washington County Supervisor[72]
- Michael Crowley, Waukesha County Supervisor[72]
- Paul Decker, Waukesha County Board Chairman[64]
- Paul Farrow, Waukesha County Executive (2015-present)[64]
- Tyson Fettes, Racine County Register of Deeds[64]
- Adam Gerol, Ozaukee County District Attorney[64]
- Tricia Hanson, Racine County District Attorney[64]
- Darlene Johnson, Waukesha County Supervisor[64]
- Bob Long, St. Croix County Supervisor[72]
- Travis Nez, former Price County Supervisor[64]
- Michael Nieskes, St. Croix County District Attorney[72]
- Harley Raebe, Green Lake County Supervisor[64]
- Dale Schmidt, Dodge County Sheriff[64]
- Dan Sebring, Milwaukee County Supervisor[64]
- Lawrence Smith, Winnebago County Supervisor[66]
- Peter Sorce, Washington County Supervisor[64]
- John Spears, Vernon County Sheriff[64]
- Daniel P. Vrakas, Waukesha County Executive (2005-2015)[64]
- Chuck Wood, Waukesha County Supervisor[64]
- Fred Zaug, Waupaca County Supervisor[72]
- David Zimmerman, Waukesha County Supervisor[72]
Individuals
- Rachel Campos-Duffy, television personality[74]
- Michael W. Grebe, philanthropist, lawyer, businessman and conservative activist[75]
- John C. McAdams, professor at Marquette University[72]
- Kevin Nicholson, veteran and former 2018 Senate candidate[76]
- Tonette Walker, First Lady of Wisconsin (2011-2019)[77]
- Jay Weber, WISN-AM talk show host[78]
Organizations
- Maggie's List[79]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[80][81]
- Republican Party of Wisconsin[82]
- RightNOW Women[83]
- Wisconsin Family Action[57]
- Wisconsin Right to Life[58]
- Wisconsin Young Republicans[84]
Polling
editPoll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kevin Nicholson |
Leah Vukmir |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[85] | July 26–28, 2018 | 238 | ± 6.5% | 35% | 35% | 3% | 27% |
Marist College[86] | July 15–19, 2018 | 355 | ± 6.1% | 38% | 28% | <1% | 34% |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[87] | July 12–16, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | 33% | 20% | – | 47% |
Marquette University[88] | July 11–15, 2018 | 266 | ± 7.0% | 32% | 34% | 2% | 30% |
Marquette University[89] | June 13–17, 2018 | 274 | ± 6.9% | 37% | 32% | 1% | 30% |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[90] | June 7–12, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | 28% | 14% | – | 58% |
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC)[91] | May 31 – June 4, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 29% | 36% | – | 35% |
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir)[92] | May 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 32% | 30% | – | – |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)[93] | April 30 – May 3, 2018 | 240 | ± 6.0% | 46% | 15% | – | – |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[94] | April 2–4, 2018 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
Marquette University[95] | February 25 – March 1, 2018 | 243 | ± 8.2% | 28% | 19% | 2% | 49% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[96] | January 22–23, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 48% | 9% | 1%[a] | 42% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[96] | January 2–3, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 27% | 10% | 2%[b] | 60% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson)[97] | December 6–7, 2017 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 30% | 23% | 2%[b] | 45% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Clarke |
Sean Duffy |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] | February 15–16, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Results
editParty | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Leah Vukmir | 217,230 | 48.90% | |
Republican | Kevin Nicholson | 191,276 | 43.06% | |
Republican | George Lucia | 18,786 | 4.23% | |
Republican | Griffin Jones | 8,699 | 1.96% | |
Republican | Charles Barman | 7,959 | 1.79% | |
Write-in | 303 | 0.07% | ||
Total votes | 444,253 | 100% |
General election
editEndorsements
editU.S. Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017-2021)[99]
- Reince Priebus, 27th White House Chief of Staff (2017)[60]
- Condoleezza Rice, 66th United States Secretary of State (2005-2009)[100]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017-2021)[101]
U.S. Senators
- Ron Johnson, U.S. Senator from Wisconsin (2011-present)[102]
U.S. Representatives
- Sean Duffy, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 7th congressional district (2011-2019)[61]
- Glenn Grothman, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 6th congressional district (2015-present)[62]
- Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the House of Representatives (2015-2019), U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (1999-2019)[63]
- Jim Sensenbrenner, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 5th congressional district (2003-2021)[63]
State officials
- Matt Adamczyk, 35th State Treasurer of Wisconsin (2015-2019)[64]
- Margaret Farrow, 42nd Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin (2001-2003)[65]
State legislators
- Scott Allen, state assemblyman from the 97th district (2015-present)[64]
- Joan Ballweg, state assemblywoman from the 41st district (2005-2021)[64]
- Kathy Bernier, state assemblywoman from the 68th district (2011-2019)[64]
- Mark Born, state assemblyman from the 39th district (2013-present)[66]
- Janel Brandtjen, state assemblyman from the 22nd district (2015-present)[64]
- Ed Brooks, state assemblyman from the 50th district (2009-2019)[66]
- Robert Brooks, state assemblyman from the 60th district (2015-present)[64]
- Dave Craig, state senator from the 28th district (2017-2021)[67]
- Alberta Darling, state senator from the 8th district (1993-2022)[68]
- Mary Felzkowski, state assemblywoman from the 35th district (2013-2021)[69]
- Dan Feyen, state senator from the 18th district (2017-present)[64]
- Scott Fitzgerald, Wisconsin State Senate Majority Leader (2013-2021), state senator from the 13th district (1995-2021)[36]
- Rick Gundrum, state assemblyman from the 58th district (2018-present)[66]
- Cody Horlacher, state assemblyman from the 33rd district (2015-2023)[64]
- André Jacque, state assemblyman from the 2nd district (2011-2019)[64]
- John Jagler, state assemblyman from the 37th district (2013-2021)[64]
- Adam M. Jarchow, state assemblyman from the 28th district (2015-2019)[64]
- Dan Kapanke, state senator from the 32nd district (2005-2011)[64]
- Terry Katsma, state assemblyman from the 26th district (2015-present)[64]
- Samantha Kerkman, state assemblywoman from the 61st district (2013-2022)[64]
- Joel Kitchens, state assemblyman from the 1st district (2015-present)[64]
- Joel Kleefisch, state assemblyman from the 38th district (2005-2019)[70]
- Dan Knodl, state assemblyman from the 24th district (2009-2023)[64]
- Dean Knudson, state assemblyman from the 30th district (2011-2017)[64]
- Scott Krug, state assemblyman from the 72nd district (2011-present)[64]
- Mike Kuglitsch, state assemblyman from the 84th district (2011-2022)[64]
- Bob Kulp, state assemblyman from the 69th district (2013-2021)[64]
- Mary Lazich, Wisconsin Senate President (2015-2017), state senator from the 28th district (1998-2017)[64]
- Devin LeMahieu, state senator from the 9th district (2015-present)[64]
- Amy Loudenbeck, state assemblywoman from the 31st district (2013-2023), 45th district (2011-2013)[64]
- John Macco, state assemblyman from the 88th district (2015-present)[66]
- Howard Marklein, Wisconsin Senate President Pro Tempore (2017-2021), state senator from the 17th district (2015-present)[64]
- Dave Murphy, state assemblyman from the 56th district (2013-present)[64]
- Stephen Nass, state senator from the 11th district (2015-present)[64]
- Adam Neylon, state senator from the 98th district (2013-present)[64]
- John Nygren, state assemblyman from the 89th district (2007-2020)[64]
- Luther Olsen, state senator from the 14th district (2005-2021)[64]
- Jim Ott, state assemblyman from the 23rd district (2007-2021)[64]
- Jerry Petrowski, state senator from the 29th district (2012-present)[64]
- Treig Pronschinske, state assemblyman from the 92nd district (2017-present)[69]
- Romaine Quinn, state assemblywoman from the 75th district (2015-2021)[64]
- Mike Rohrkaste, state assemblyman from the 55th district (2015-2021)[64]
- Roger Roth, Wisconsin Senate President (2017-2021), state senator from the 19th district (2015-2023)[66]
- Joe Sanfelippo, state assemblyman from the 15th district (2013-2023)[64]
- Michael Schraa, state assemblyman from the 53rd district (2013-present)[64]
- Ken Skowronski, state assemblyman from the 82nd district (2014-2023)[64]
- Patrick Snyder, state assemblyman from the 85th district (2017-present)[64]
- John Spiros, state assemblyman from the 86th district (2013-present)[64]
- Rob Stafsholt, state assemblyman from the 29th district (2017-2021)[64]
- David Steffen, state assemblyman from the 4th district (2015-present)[71]
- Jim Steineke, Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (2015-2022), state assemblyman from the 5th district (2011-2022)[64]
- Duey Stroebel, state senator from the 20th district (2015-present)[42]
- Rob Swearingen, state assemblyman from the 34th district (2013-present)[69]
- Gary Tauchen, state assemblyman from the 6th district (2007-2023)[64]
- Patrick Testin, state senator from the 24th district (2017-present)[64]
- Jeremy Thiesfeldt, state assemblyman from the 52nd district (2011-2023)[64]
- Travis Tranel, state assemblyman from the 49th district (2011-present)[72]
- Van Wanggaard, state senator from the 21st district (2015-present)[73]
- Tom Weatherston, state assemblyman from the 62nd district (2013-2019)[64]
- Chuck Wichgers, state assemblyman from the 83rd district (2017-2023)[64]
- Shannon Zimmerman, state assemblyman from the 30th district (2017-present)[64]
Local officials
- Dave Ament, Mayor of New Berlin[64]
- David Beth, Kenosha County Sheriff[64]
- Christopher Bossert, Washington County Supervisor[66]
- John Bulawa, Washington County Supervisor[72]
- Michael Crowley, Waukesha County Supervisor[72]
- Paul Decker, Waukesha County Board Chairman[64]
- Paul Farrow, Waukesha County Executive (2015-present)[64]
- Tyson Fettes, Racine County Register of Deeds[64]
- Adam Gerol, Ozaukee County District Attorney[64]
- Tricia Hanson, Racine County District Attorney[64]
- Darlene Johnson, Waukesha County Supervisor[64]
- Bob Long, St. Croix County Supervisor[72]
- Travis Nez, former Price County Supervisor[64]
- Michael Nieskes, Racine County District Attorney[72]
- Harley Raebe, Green Lake County Supervisor[64]
- Dale Schmidt, Dodge County Sheriff[64]
- Dan Sebring, Milwaukee County Supervisor[64]
- Lawrence Smith, Winnebago County Supervisor[66]
- Peter Sorce, Washington County Supervisor[64]
- John Spears, Vernon County Sheriff[64]
- Daniel P. Vrakas, Waukesha County Executive (2005-2015)[64]
- Chuck Wood, Waukesha County Supervisor[64]
- Fred Zaug, Waupaca County Supervisor[72]
- David Zimmerman, Waukesha County Supervisor[72]
Individuals
- Rachel Campos-Duffy, television personality[74]
- Michael W. Grebe, philanthropist, lawyer, businessman and conservative activist[75]
- John C. McAdams, professor at Marquette University[72]
- Eric Trump, businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump[103]
- Tonette Walker, First Lady of Wisconsin (2011-2019)[77]
- Jay Weber, WISN-AM talk show host[78]
Organizations
- Maggie's List[79]
- Milwaukee Police Association[104]
- NRA Political Victory Fund[80][81]
- Republican Party of Wisconsin[82]
- RightNOW Women[83]
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce[105]
- Wisconsin Family Action[57]
- Wisconsin Right to Life[58]
- Wisconsin Young Republicans[84]
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009-2017)[106]
- Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009-2017)[107]
U.S. Senators
- Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013-present)[3]
- Tammy Duckworth, U.S. Senator from Illinois (2017-present)[4]
- Dick Durbin, U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997-present), Senate Minority Whip (2015-2021)[5]
- Russ Feingold, U.S. Senator from Wisconsin (1993-2011)[6]
- Al Franken, U.S. Senator from Minnesota (2009-2018)[7]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California (2017-2021)[8]
- Maggie Hassan, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (2017-present)[9]
- Doug Jones, U.S. Senator from Alabama (2018-2021)[10]
- Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada (2017-present)[11]
- Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009-present)[12]
- Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan (2015-present)[13]
- Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007-present) (Independent)[14]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013-present)[15]
- Sheldon Whitehouse, U.S. Senator from Rhode Island (2007-present)[16]
U.S. Representatives
- Joe Kennedy III, U.S. Representative from Massachusetts's 4th congressional district (2013-2021)[108]
- Gwen Moore, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 4th congressional district (2005-present)[109]
- Mark Pocan, U.S. Representative from Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (2013-present)[110]
State officials
- Tony Evers, 26th Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction (2009-2019) and nominee for Governor of Wisconsin in 2018[111]
State legislators
- Mandela Barnes, state assemblyman from the 11th district (2013-2017) and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Wisconsin in 2018[112]
Local officials
- Bill de Blasio, 109th Mayor of New York City (2014-2021)[113]
Individuals
- Stephanie Schriock, political strategist[114]
- Amy Siskind, activist and writer[115]
- Bradley Whitford, actor and activist[116]
Organizations
- Alliance for Retired Americans[117]
- Council for a Livable World[17]
- Democracy for America[18]
- EMILY's List[19]
- End Citizens United[20]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee[118]
- J Street[21]
- League of Conservation Voters[22]
- LegitAction[23]
- MoveOn.org[24]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[119]
- National Organization for Women[25]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[26]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[27]
- Population Connection[120]
- Rachel's Action Network[121]
- Run with Pride[122]
- Sierra Club[22]
- United Automobile Workers[123]
Debates
edit- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
- Complete video of debate, October 13, 2018
Predictions
editSource | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[124] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[125] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[126] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[127][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
CNN[128] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[129] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
editGraphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Leah Vukmir (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co.[130] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Emerson College[131] | October 29–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.1% | 53% | 44% | – | 3% |
Marquette University[132] | October 24–28, 2018 | 1,154 LV | ± 3.2% | 54% | 43% | – | 1% |
1,400 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
Ipsos[133] | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,193 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 3% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[134] | October 10–11, 2018 | 816 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Marquette University[135] | October 3–7, 2018 | 799 LV | ± 3.9% | 53% | 43% | – | 2% |
1,000 RV | ± 3.6% | 53% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
Marist College[136] | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 571 LV | ± 4.8% | 54% | 40% | 1% | 5% |
781 RV | ± 4.1% | 53% | 40% | 1% | 6% | ||
Ipsos[133] | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,109 | ± 3.0% | 52% | 39% | 4% | 5% |
Marquette University[137] | September 12–16, 2018 | 614 LV | ± 4.4% | 53% | 42% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | – | 4% | ||
Suffolk University[138] | August 18–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
Marquette University[139] | August 15–19, 2018 | 601 LV | ± 4.5% | 49% | 47% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 4% | ||
Emerson College[140] | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 36% | 4% | 10% |
Marist College[86] | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 38% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[141] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 40% | – | 4% |
Marquette University[89] | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[142] | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
with Kevin Nicholson
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Kevin Nicholson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[143] | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 9% |
Marist College[86] | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[141] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 42% | – | 3% |
Marquette University[89] | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 39% | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[142] | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
with generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios[144] | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,668 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
with David Clarke
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
David Clarke (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 35% | 2% | 14% |
with Sean Duffy
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tammy Baldwin (D) |
Sean Duffy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R)[98] | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 36% | 2% | 13% |
Results
editDespite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties.[145] This is the largest margin of victory for the Democrats in a major Wisconsin statewide campaign (presidential, senate, gubernatorial) since 2008.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 1,472,914 | 55.36% | +3.95% | |
Republican | Leah Vukmir | 1,184,885 | 44.53% | −1.33% | |
Write-in | 2,964 | 0.11% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,660,763 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
edit- Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi)
- Forest (largest city: Crandon)
- Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
- Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
- Pepin (largest city: Durand)
- Price (largest city: Park Falls)
- Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
- Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
- Wood (largest city: Marshfield)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
editBy congressional district
editAs a result of partisan gerrymandering, Baldwin only won 3 out of the state's 8 Congressional districts, despite winning the election comfortably by over 10 percentage points.
District | Vukmir | Baldwin | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 50.3% | 49.6% | Bryan Steil |
2nd | 26.4% | 73.4% | Mark Pocan |
3rd | 43.5% | 56.4% | Ron Kind |
4th | 21.3% | 78.6% | Gwen Moore |
5th | 56.9% | 43.0% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
6th | 52.4% | 47.5% | Glenn Grothman |
7th | 52.2% | 47.7% | Sean Duffy |
8th | 51.5% | 48.5% | Mike Gallagher |
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ "Elections - Wisconsin Elections Commission". elections.wi.gov. Archived from the original on April 17, 2018. Retrieved March 29, 2018.
- ^ "Sen. Baldwin prepares for re-election fight in 2018". April 19, 2017. Archived from the original on November 4, 2017. Retrieved October 30, 2017.
- ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Cory Booker (D. NJ) Helps Fuel Tammy Baldwin's (D) Re-Election Campaign". Daily Kos. March 11, 2018. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Tammy Duckwoth (D. IL) Refuses To Let Cadet Bone Spurs Defeat A Fellow Tammy". Daily Kos. March 27, 2018. Archived from the original on May 19, 2018. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "WI, FL & VA-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. October 30, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D) Refuses To Let Right-Wing Billionaires Defeat Tammy Baldwin (D)". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "WI-Sen: Al Franken (D. MN) Helps Fuel Tammy Baldwin's (D) Campaign To Continue To Take On Trump". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "WI-Sen: Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Tammy Baldwin (D) Keep Up The Fight To Defeat Trumpcare". Daily Kos. June 22, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "MA, MO & WI-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps These Women Persist & Resist Trump". Daily Kos. November 7, 2017. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Baldwin.
- ^ a b "MO & WI-Sen: Sen Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. September 29, 2017.
- ^ a b "WI-Sen: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D. OR) Refuses To Let Trump & The Kochs Take Down Tammy Baldwin (D)". Daily Kos. March 9, 2018. Archived from the original on May 19, 2018. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018. Archived from the original on August 31, 2024. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
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- ^ a b Laguens, Dawn; Atkinson, Tanya (May 10, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorses U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin for Re-election". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Archived from the original on May 19, 2018. Retrieved May 19, 2018.
- ^ a b "United States Senate primary election in Wisconsin, 2018" (PDF). Office of the Wisconsin Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 21, 2021. Retrieved June 6, 2019.
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- ^ ""Cop Under Fire:" Sheriff Clarke says he won't run for Senate, criticizes Gov. Walker in new book". March 1, 2017.
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- ^ a b c "I'm proud to support my colleague, friend and consistent conservative warrior @LeahVukmir for US Senate. #WIsen". Twitter. September 7, 2017. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved September 7, 2017.
- ^ Sommerhauser, Mark (October 6, 2016). "Charlie Sykes: 'Absolutely no truth' to suggestion he'd challenge Tammy Baldwin for U.S. Senate". Wisconsin State Journal. Archived from the original on October 9, 2016. Retrieved October 11, 2016.
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- ^ "Steve Bannon injects himself into Wisconsin Senate race, backing Vukmir challenger Kevin Nicholson". October 17, 2017. Archived from the original on October 18, 2017. Retrieved October 17, 2017.
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- ^ "Nicholson campaign: Senator Mike Lee endorses Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin". WisPolitics. Archived from the original on April 23, 2018. Retrieved April 23, 2018.
- ^ Jesse Kremer. "Proud to be endorsing @KevinMNicholson for US Senate!". Twitter. Archived from the original on July 10, 2018. Retrieved May 12, 2018.
- ^ Sarah Seifert (May 16, 2018). "Third Wisconsin veterans' tour draws in candidate for U.S. Senate seat at Chippewa Falls stop". Chippewa Herald. Archived from the original on May 26, 2018. Retrieved May 25, 2018.
- ^ "Club PAC-Endorsed Candidates". Club for Growth. Archived from the original on October 17, 2017. Retrieved October 16, 2017.
- ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Kevin Nicholson in Wisconsin Senate Race | FreedomWorks for America". Archived from the original on October 19, 2017. Retrieved October 19, 2017.
- ^ Glauber, Bill (October 16, 2017). "Wisconsin GOP Senate contender Kevin Nicholson wins endorsement from super PAC tied to Steve Bannon". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
- ^ "The Madison Project Endorses Kevin Nicholson". Madison Project. August 24, 2017. Archived from the original on August 10, 2018. Retrieved August 10, 2018.
- ^ "Kevin Nicholson for U.S. Senate". Senate Conservatives Fund. August 9, 2018.
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- ^ a b c "WISCONSIN FAMILY ACTION PAC ANNOUNCES FIRST ROUND OF FALL 2018 ENDORSEMENTS". Wisconsin Family Action. July 23, 2018. Archived from the original on September 28, 2020. Retrieved August 10, 2018.
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- ^ "Nicholson stands out in tight GOP Senate primary". Kenosha News. Archived from the original on November 5, 2018. Retrieved August 2, 2018.
- ^ a b Leah Vukmir (January 22, 2018). ".@Reince knows exactly what it takes to win in Wisconsin, and I am honored to have his support for my U.S. Senate campaign. 🇺🇸#wisen #wiright #maga". Twitter. Archived from the original on January 22, 2018. Retrieved January 22, 2018.
- ^ a b Imrie, Robert. "Duffy endorses Vukmir in GOP Senate primary". waow.com. Archived from the original on July 10, 2018. Retrieved July 9, 2018.
- ^ a b "Glenn Grothman Chooses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate". Leah Vukmir for Senate. July 9, 2018. Archived from the original on July 10, 2018. Retrieved July 9, 2018.
- ^ a b c d "RYAN & SENSENBRENNER: WE CHOOSE LEAH". RightWisconsin. June 25, 2018. Archived from the original on June 26, 2018. Retrieved June 26, 2018.
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- ^ a b "FORMER LT. GOV. MARGARET FARROW ENDORSES LEAH VUKMIR FOR U.S. SENATE". Right Wisconsin. September 14, 2017. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved September 15, 2017.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Leah announces 300+ Wisconsin endorsements". medium.com. January 31, 2018. Archived from the original on February 4, 2018. Retrieved February 3, 2018.
- ^ a b "Join me in supporting @LeahVukmir for US Senate, a proven conservative with a record of reform that she'll take to DC! #wisenate #wiright". Twitter. October 5, 2017.
- ^ a b "Honored to have these leaders who helped bring about Trump's, Walker's and RoJo's election victories on my finance team. #wisen #wiright". Twitter. September 21, 2017.
- ^ a b c d e f "Leah Reaches 400+ Grassroots Wisconsin Endorsements". medium.com. February 21, 2018. Archived from the original on February 21, 2018. Retrieved February 21, 2018.
- ^ a b "Joel Kleefisch: I choose Leah". medium.com. October 26, 2017. Archived from the original on October 27, 2017. Retrieved October 26, 2017.
- ^ a b Leah, Vukmir. "Thanks, @RepSteffen, for your endorsement! Appreciate having someone w/so much respect for our police and military on my team! 🇺🇸 #wisen". Twitter. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved October 20, 2017.
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- ^ a b Waukesha Young Republicans. "Young Republicans across Waukesha County TODAY are casting their vote for our great team of proven conservatives to keep WI moving forward & bring the WI Way to DC!! #WIRight #WYR #ChooseLeah #WIYREndorsed". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 27, 2018. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
- ^ Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ a b c Marist College
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- ^ "Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC)". Archived from the original on November 8, 2018. Retrieved June 18, 2018.
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- ^ a b c Magellan Strategies (R)
- ^ Mike Pence. "Big night for Wisconsin! Congrats to my friend & one of the nation's greatest governors @ScottWalker on his primary victory. And congrats to @LeahVukmir & @BryanSteilForWI, two great future leaders of the GOP!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
- ^ Leah Vukmir. "Leah "is a strong leader who will ensure Wisconsin leads the way into the future. I am pleased to support her candidacy for the Senate." — Condoleezza Rice 🇺🇸 #wisen". Twitter. Archived from the original on November 2, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2018.
- ^ Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin on your great win last night. You beat a very tough and good competitor and will make a fantastic Senator after winning in November against someone who has done very little. You have my complete and total Endorsement!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
- ^ Ron Johnson. "Congratulations @LeahVukmir! #wisen". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 27, 2018. Retrieved August 17, 2018.
- ^ Eric Trump. "Thank you WISCONSIN!!! I absolutely loved being in your incredible state in support of the amazing @LeahVukmir, @RepSeanDuffy and @RepGrothman as we work to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain! #USAUSAUSA". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 4, 2020. Retrieved November 4, 2018.
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- ^ Joe Biden. "We desperately need men and women of character in elected office. That's why next Tuesday, one week out from Election Day, I'm proud to join @tammybaldwin & @Tony4WI at early vote rallies". Twitter.
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- ^ Tammy Baldwin. "My friend @joekennedy is getting folks fired up today! He made some new friends at Marquette University this morning and is making sure everyone has a plan to vote!". Twitter.
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- ^ Mandela Barnes. "Are we in the cheap seats, or is there just that much support for Tammy Baldwin? The answer is yes!". Twitter.
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- ^ Tammy Baldwin. ""We need every woman across Wisconsin to stand up with Tammy — she stands up with us every day." — @Schriock1". Twitter. Archived from the original on March 21, 2024. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
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External links
edit- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites