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2008 United States presidential election in Alabama

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Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Alabama
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,266,546 813,479
Percentage 60.32% 38.74%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Alabama was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 21.58% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or a safe red state. Located in the Deep South, Alabama is one of the most conservative states in the country. Republicans have won every presidential election in Alabama since 1980, and the 2008 election was no exception. McCain carried 54 of the state's 67 counties and easily prevailed in Alabama.

Despite McCain's expected victory, Obama did manage to improve on Kerry's performance by two points and was able to reduce his margin of defeat by four points which is attributed to the higher African-American turnout. In addition, Obama's raw vote total was the highest obtained by a Democrat in the state of Alabama until his running mate, Biden, broke his record 12 years later in a historically high turnout election. Obama also managed to flip Jefferson County, the state's most populous county and home to Birmingham, which had not gone Democratic since 1952 and was won by incumbent Senator Jeff Sessions in the concurrent U.S. Senate election. Marengo County also split tickets for Obama and Sessions.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely R
Cook Political Report[2] Solid R
The Takeaway[3] Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[4] Solid R
Washington Post[5] Solid R
Politico[6] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7] Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[5] Solid R
CQ Politics[8] Solid R
The New York Times[9] Solid R
CNN[10] Safe R
NPR[5] Solid R
MSNBC[5] Solid R
Fox News[11] Likely R
Associated Press[12] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13] Safe R

Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Alabama

Opinion polls taken in Alabama prior to the election consistently showed John McCain to be leading Barack Obama by double digits. RealClearPolitics gave the state an average of 56.8% for McCain, compared to 33.5% for Obama.[14] The state was not seriously contested by either campaign.

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $1,846,574 in the state. Barack Obama raised $1,734,629.[15]

Advertising and visits

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Obama spent almost $264,945. McCain and his interest groups spent just $850.[16] Barack Obama, made at least one stop in the state, a brief visit to the Heritage Club for a Democratic Fundraiser in Huntsville, AL[17]

Analysis

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Alabama is one of the most conservative states in the country and one of the most reliably Republican strongholds in presidential elections. Alabama is located in the lower Bible Belt, where many people are values voters who tend to oppose social issues like abortion, gay rights, and immigration. Like most Southern states, Alabama was a one-party state dominated by conservative Democrats for the better part of a century after Reconstruction. However, it swung dramatically to the Republicans in 1964 in opposition to civil rights legislation. Since then, Democrats have carried the state only once, when Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia swept most of the South and East Coast. Although Democrats still nominally have a majority of registered voters, the Democrats have only seriously contested the state two other times since Barry Goldwater carried it in 1964; 1976 (A double-digit victory) and 1980. As in much of the Deep South, Alabama Democrats began splitting their tickets as early as the 1940s when the national party became more receptive toward the Civil Rights Movement, and the rise of the religious right in the 1970s only accelerated this trend.

At the time of the election, Alabama had a Republican Governor (Bob Riley), two Republicans in the U.S. Senate (Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions), and five of its seven seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were held by Republicans.

On November 4, 2008, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama predictably lost by a landslide. However, he performed 2% better in 2008 than John Kerry did in 2004 (both by popular vote and by the number of carried counties). In large part, this can be attributed to high turnout of African American voters in Alabama. Notably, Obama carried Jefferson County, which contains the state's largest city of Birmingham,[18] which last supported the official Democratic candidate for president in 1956. Strangely, many news organizations did not project the state's outcome immediately after the polls closed, possibly due to a wavering African American turnout.

Voting in Alabama, like in other states of the Deep South, was heavily polarized by race. According to exit polls, 98% of black Alabamians voted Democratic while 88% of white Alabamians voted Republican.[19] Obama's 12 percent showing among white Alabamians was easily his worst in the nation, and prevented him from having any realistic chance of carrying the state.[20] Ultimately, McCain won by running up massive landslides in the state's suburban areas; several Birmingham, Montgomery and Mobile suburbs gave McCain over 70 percent of the vote. The old-line Dixiecrats in these areas began splitting their tickets as early as the 1940s; apart from Carter, some of these areas haven't supported a Democrat for president since Adlai Stevenson II in 1952.

Racial polarization was why Obama generally improved on Kerry's performance in Central Alabama, where more African Americans live. Conversely, Obama did much worse than Kerry in North Alabama, where fewer blacks live. Racial polarization was also responsible for Alabama's electoral geography: Obama, like other Democrats, won landslides in the Black Belt while losing badly everywhere else. With 60.32% of the popular vote, Alabama proved to be McCain's fifth strongest state in the 2008 election after Oklahoma, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho.[21]

Results

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Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,266,546 60.32% 9
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 813,479 38.74% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 6,788 0.32% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 4,991 0.24% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,310 0.20% 0
Write-in candidates 3,705 0.18% 0
Totals 2,099,819 100.00% 9
[22]

By county

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County John McCain
Republican 		Barack Obama
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Autauga 17,403 73.61% 6,093 25.77% 145 0.61% 11,310 47.84% 23,641
Baldwin 61,271 75.26% 19,386 23.81% 756 0.93% 41,885 51.45% 81,413
Barbour 5,866 50.44% 5,697 48.99% 67 0.58% 169 1.45% 11,630
Bibb 6,262 72.44% 2,299 26.60% 83 0.96% 3,963 45.84% 8,644
Blount 20,389 84.02% 3,522 14.51% 356 1.46% 16,867 69.51% 24,267
Bullock 1,391 25.69% 4,011 74.07% 13 0.24% -2,620 -48.38% 5,415
Butler 5,485 56.49% 4,188 43.14% 36 0.37% 1,297 13.35% 9,709
Calhoun 32,348 65.69% 16,334 33.17% 560 1.14% 16,014 32.52% 49,242
Chambers 8,067 53.94% 6,799 45.46% 90 0.60% 1,268 8.48% 14,956
Cherokee 7,298 74.89% 2,306 23.66% 141 1.44% 4,992 51.23% 9,745
Chilton 13,960 78.49% 3,674 20.66% 151 0.85% 10,286 57.83% 17,785
Choctaw 4,223 53.50% 3,636 46.06% 35 0.44% 587 7.44% 7,894
Clarke 7,466 55.57% 5,914 44.02% 55 0.41% 1,552 11.55% 13,435
Clay 4,984 73.09% 1,760 25.81% 75 1.10% 3,224 47.28% 6,819
Cleburne 5,216 80.35% 1,168 17.99% 108 1.66% 4,048 62.36% 6,492
Coffee 14,919 74.12% 5,079 25.23% 130 0.65% 9,840 48.89% 20,128
Colbert 14,739 59.33% 9,703 39.06% 401 1.61% 5,036 20.27% 24,843
Conecuh 3,470 49.98% 3,429 49.39% 44 0.63% 41 0.59% 6,943
Coosa 3,248 58.39% 2,273 40.86% 42 0.76% 975 17.53% 5,563
Covington 12,444 78.82% 3,240 20.52% 103 0.65% 9,204 58.30% 15,787
Crenshaw 4,319 68.65% 1,938 30.81% 34 0.54% 2,381 37.84% 6,291
Cullman 28,896 81.85% 5,864 16.61% 545 1.53% 23,032 65.24% 35,305
Dale 13,886 71.87% 5,270 27.28% 164 0.85% 8,616 44.59% 19,320
Dallas 6,798 32.60% 13,986 67.07% 68 0.33% -7,188 -34.47% 20,852
DeKalb 17,957 74.77% 5,658 23.56% 400 1.67% 12,299 51.21% 24,015
Elmore 25,777 75.12% 8,301 24.19% 237 0.69% 17,476 50.93% 34,315
Escambia 9,375 63.89% 5,188 35.36% 111 0.76% 4,187 28.53% 14,674
Etowah 30,595 68.39% 13,497 30.17% 645 1.44% 17,098 38.22% 44,737
Fayette 5,883 73.93% 1,994 25.06% 80 1.01% 3,889 48.87% 7,957
Franklin 8,048 68.83% 3,469 29.67% 176 1.51% 4,579 39.16% 11,693
Geneva 9,417 80.78% 2,134 18.31% 106 0.90% 7,283 62.47% 11,657
Greene 876 16.51% 4,408 83.09% 21 0.40% -3,532 -66.58% 5,305
Hale 3,200 38.96% 4,982 60.65% 32 0.39% -1,782 -21.69% 8,214
Henry 5,585 64.58% 3,018 34.90% 45 0.52% 2,567 29.68% 8,648
Houston 29,254 70.09% 12,225 29.29% 256 0.61% 17,029 40.80% 41,735
Jackson 14,083 67.47% 6,374 30.54% 417 1.99% 7,709 36.93% 20,874
Jefferson 149,921 47.07% 166,121 52.15% 2,482 0.78% -16,200 -5.08% 318,524
Lamar 5,419 76.59% 1,614 22.81% 42 0.60% 3,805 53.78% 7,075
Lauderdale 24,068 63.16% 13,329 34.98% 707 1.86% 10,739 28.18% 38,104
Lawrence 9,277 63.19% 5,164 35.18% 239 1.63% 4,113 28.01% 14,680
Lee 32,230 59.33% 21,498 39.57% 597 1.09% 10,732 19.76% 54,325
Limestone 23,598 70.33% 9,536 28.42% 417 1.24% 14,062 41.91% 33,551
Lowndes 1,809 24.86% 5,449 74.87% 20 0.27% -3,640 -50.01% 7,278
Macon 1,396 12.83% 9,450 86.88% 31 0.29% -8,054 -74.05% 10,877
Madison 86,965 56.88% 64,117 41.93% 1,817 1.19% 22,848 14.95% 152,899
Marengo 5,516 48.09% 5,926 51.66% 29 0.29% -410 -3.57% 11,471
Marion 9,536 77.18% 2,600 21.04% 219 1.78% 6,936 56.14% 12,355
Marshall 25,727 77.57% 7,038 21.22% 401 1.21% 18,689 56.35% 33,166
Mobile 98,049 54.04% 82,181 45.30% 1,194 0.66% 15,868 8.74% 181,424
Monroe 6,175 54.88% 5,025 44.66% 52 0.46% 1,150 10.22% 11,252
Montgomery 42,031 40.13% 62,166 59.35% 546 0.52% -20,135 -19.22% 104,743
Morgan 36,014 71.26% 13,895 27.49% 633 1.26% 22,119 43.77% 50,542
Perry 1,679 27.26% 4,457 72.37% 23 0.37% -2,778 -45.11% 6,159
Pickens 5,434 53.98% 4,594 45.63% 39 0.39% 840 8.35% 10,067
Pike 8,004 57.36% 5,879 42.13% 72 0.52% 2,125 15.23% 13,955
Randolph 7,175 69.10% 3,064 29.51% 145 1.39% 4,111 39.59% 10,384
Russell 8,705 46.02% 10,085 53.32% 125 0.66% -1,380 -7.30% 18,915
Shelby 69,060 76.19% 20,625 22.75% 958 1.06% 48,435 53.44% 90,643
St. Clair 27,649 81.11% 6,091 17.87% 348 1.02% 21,558 63.24% 34,088
Sumter 1,731 24.66% 5,264 74.99% 25 0.36% -3,533 -50.33% 7,020
Talladega 20,112 58.80% 13,779 40.28% 313 0.92% 6,333 18.52% 34,204
Tallapoosa 13,116 67.92% 6,063 31.40% 132 0.68% 7,053 36.52% 19,311
Tuscaloosa 45,405 57.54% 32,796 41.56% 711 0.90% 12,609 15.98% 78,912
Walker 20,722 72.32% 7,420 25.90% 510 1.78% 13,302 46.42% 28,652
Washington 5,654 64.43% 3,067 34.95% 54 0.61% 2,587 29.48% 8,775
Wilcox 1,868 28.77% 4,612 71.02% 14 0.22% -2,744 -42.25% 6,494
Winston 8,103 80.78% 1,757 17.52% 171 1.71% 6,346 63.26% 10,031
Totals 1,266,546 60.32% 813,479 38.74% 19,794 0.94% 453,067 21.58% 2,099,819
 
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Republican John McCain carried six of the state's seven congressional districts, including two districts that were carried by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st   61.01% 38.38% Jo Bonner
2nd   63.42% 36.05% Terry Everett (110th Congress)
Bobby Bright (111th Congress)
3rd   56.21% 43.04% Mike D. Rogers
4th   76.32% 22.48% Robert Aderholt
5th   60.91% 37.99% Bud Cramer (110th Congress)
Parker Griffith (111th Congress)
6th   75.91% 23.28% Spencer Bachus
7th   27.28% 72.36% Artur Davis
[23]

Electors

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Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin.[25]

  1. Les Barnett
  2. Will Sellers
  3. Al Blythe
  4. Jack Stiefel
  5. Elbert Peters
  6. Matthew Fridy
  7. Bob Cusanelli
  8. Cam Ward
  9. Jim Wilson

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  2. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  7. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  9. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ "Alabama: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
  15. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance: AL Contributions to All Candidates by 3 digit Zip Code". Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved May 30, 2009.
  16. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ "AL US President Race". Our Campaigns. Retrieved May 27, 2009.
  19. ^ "Alabama-Election Results 2008". New York Times. Retrieved June 10, 2009.
  20. ^ Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
  21. ^ "2008 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  22. ^ "Certified General Election Results without write-in appendix" (PDF). Secretary of State of Alabama. November 25, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 27, 2008. Retrieved December 5, 2008.
  23. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. December 15, 2008. Retrieved May 31, 2009.
  24. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  25. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 19, 2008. Retrieved November 7, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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