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Arab Spring

Revolutions occur due to many reasons. The main reasons behind revolution are that firstly, miseries become unbearable, secondly, the state is unable to manage an increase of difficulties and lastly when there are new ideas that strike the imagination of people. Moreover, there are at least 3 generations of revolution.

Theories of Revolution: First Generation

The first generation theory is illustrated by scholars writings between the years 1900 and 1940. This generation includes scholars like Le Bon, Ellwood, Sorokin, Edwards and Brinton. They studied multiple major revolutions. Examples are : The West-English revolution, the American revolution, the French revolution, and the Russian revolution. They did so in order to find similarities which would eventually help them identify common patterns that could lead to a revolution.

The first similarity among the revolutions is that before revolutions occurred, intellectuals (Journalists, playwrights, lawyers and poets) attacked the previous regime and were able to grasp the attention of their supporters. If a regime lost its supporters then it means that it is failing to provide for them. Situations of political, social or military issues weaken the state and give way to revolutionary leaders.

Basically, the issue with the first generation theories is that they did not focus on doing an in-depth analysis on the causes of revolutions. They were also too descriptive but their insights are essential for further studies.

-Bibi Nazeefah Sahaduth

Second Generation:

Scholars of the second generation hypothesis wrote between 1940 and 1975. Among others who wrote during that time period were Davies, Gurr, Smelser, Huntington, and Tilly. They were particularly interested in the political violence associated with the end of colonialism and the establishment of new governments. Violence was a component of the process of transforming traditional cultures into modern ones.

Some researchers, like as Davies and Gurr, used a psychological approach to revolution in that second generation thesis. As a result, for them, misery breeds insurrection. The two experts attempted to determine which kind of afflictions promote revolution. For them, misery is unlikely to spark a revolution if people do not anticipate better in the future and believe that this is the way life is. If individuals expect a better life and the current social order does not allow them to achieve their goals, they become angry and violent toward the system. As a result, when individuals come into contact with one another, they realize that a better life is conceivable. This boosts their life expectations.

Huntington describes revolution as the outcome of a condition in which new groups are rapidly mobilized and social change is occurring but the necessary organizational organs are unable to please people's desires and supply change at a matching pace. Even though he states that people's expectations may not be material but can also take a non-material term such as participation in the political system because when the existing system fails to meet that expectation, people revolt; other scholars such as Smelser and Johnson argue that if the different subsystems of society such as the economy, the political system, and the education of young people are all functioning and growing at the same rate, then revolution is unlikely to occur. However, if one subsystem begins to alter independently, people become bewildered and susceptible to new ideas and extreme ideologies. They begin to question the validity of the current system and become inclined to challenge the status quo.

123helpme.com (2021) Defining revolution- second generation theorists, 123 Help Me. Available at: https://www.123helpme.com/essay/Defining-Revolution-Second-Generation-Theorists-290373.

- Bapniah Gianeshwaree Isha

Structural Theories of Revolution

The approach attempts to highlight the role of the states in revolutions. Revolutions are more likely to happen when the state try to play an active role in the by extracting resources and reengineering. Whenever the state faces external threats, there is a mobilisation of the whole society in order to confront the external forces. If the mobilisation hurts the interests of the elites, then revolutions are bound to happen. The elites will use their power to influence state bureaucracy which eventually put the state in a vulnerable position. Therefore, it can be deduced if mobilisation means the suspension of the traditional privileges of the elites, revolution will take place.

Another important aspect during revolutions is loyalty of the army. If recruitment of the army is made from all classes and soldiers are kept apart from the civilian population, they will pe able to repress the uprising rebellion. However, if soldiers are recruited only from the elites, they will mostly like sympathise with their own whenever there is conflict between the state and elites.

Elite opposition to the state is not the only factor causing revolution but also the popular uprising. Two main popular uprisings are peasants and urban worker’s revolt. If the peasants are suffering from landlord abuses, taxes, famine they will be a peasant solidarity and organise themselves to revolt against the system. As far as the urban workers are concerned, increases in food prices and unemployment are the reasons that push them to rebel. Thus, the urban riots and rural uprisings subsequently lead to revolutions.  

[Ismael Nazifah]

Outcomes

Although the long-term ramifications of the Arab Spring have yet to be seen, their short-term effects vary widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, where established administrations were deposed and replaced through a process of free and fair elections, were regarded as short-term victories. This perspective, however, is complicated by the ensuing political turbulence, notably in Egypt. Elsewhere, most notably in Morocco and the Persian Gulf monarchies, existing governments co-opted the Arab Spring movement and maintained order without considerable societal upheaval. In some countries, like Syria and Libya, the Arab Spring uprisings appear to have resulted in total social collapse. During the Arab Spring, countries with stronger civil society networks in various forms had more successful changes. The endeavor to break up political elites and reorganize the geopolitical structure of the Middle East was the most significant change from pre-revolution to post-revolution. Many of the developments brought about by the Arab Spring are expected to result in a shift in regional influence in the Middle East and a rapidly changing power structure. Countries with wider access to social media, such as Tunisia and Egypt, were more effective in organizing huge numbers of people and appear to have had higher overall success than countries with greater official control over media. The presence of a substantial, educated middle class has been linked to the success of the Arab Spring in several nations.

(Auleear Asha Bibi Raisah)

The Arab Revolution in 'Tunisia'

The Arab revolution began in Tunisia as a result of corruption and economic stagnation. Following Tunisia, the protests spread to Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain. It was highly unlikely that the revolution would start in Tunisia because it was seen as a role model country in the region. It had a strong public service, a thriving middle class, and an efficient educational system. However, it saw high rates of youth unemployment and severe levels of corruption. The first protests began when a young man set himself on fire in response to the abuse of authority. The emblem of the revolution is Mohamed Bouazizi.

Ben Ali took power in 1987. At first, he was portrayed as a democratic leader who offered political freedom and human rights to the Tunisians. However, Ben Ali's commitment to democracy was really put to the test in 1989 when he had to organize elections. Throughout his term as president, he upheld strict control over all national institutions, including civil society organizations. Ben Ali used formal and informal tactics to enforce party loyalty.

Ben Ali quickly started physically abusing journalists and human rights activists and censoring the media. The regime attacked those who dared to expose Ben Ali and his wife's shady financial transactions. Even though the Tunisian uprising started out more spontaneously, it was also heavily planned thanks to the internet. In the country, there were about 2 million Facebook users, and 85% of people used cellphones.

The high rate of unemployment in the society also played a role in the revolution. Numerous young people invested money in their university education, yet the employment market did not match their skills to available positions. The disparity between qualifications and the quality of employment produced angered young people. In Sidi Bouzid, where the unemployment rate for recent graduates was between 25 and 30, protests first broke out. It is also important to remember that Ben Ali's loss of the support of his soldiers was a major factor in his downfall. The military firmly refused to fire on its own people.

- [Chundhoo Aiysh Dharshnavee]

• Egypt

Mubarak’s leadership has increased Egypt’s quality of life, with GDP increasing from $40 billion in 1981 to $145 billion in 2011, life expectancy increasing from 57 years old to 70 years old, and 66% of the population being able to read. This has caused the Egyptians’ discontent.

Even while the GDP expanded when Mubarak was in power, there was a significant income difference, according to William Shaub. Egypt’s average per capita income is $6,200, but before the revolution, half of the population was subsisting on less than $2 a day, and food costs were growing. One of the causes of revolutions was the organization of the state. The foundation of the institutions can be seen in Nasser’s leadership, which began in 1952 following a coup d’état.

Nasser altered the political institutions in Egypt to strengthen his position and that of the military. These institutions were deeply anti-democratic and served the interests of intellectuals, bureaucrats, the military, and large corporations. Since the Six Day War in 1967, Egypt has seen severe limits on political freedom, allowing the government to imprison people and regulate the press.

Sayyid Badawi, a businessman close to Mubarak, purchased Egypt’s leading independent newspaper, al-Dostour, and fired editor-in-chief Ibrahim Eissa when he attempted to publish an article on Mubarak’s potential rival, M. ElBaradei. Corruption was pervasive, and the poor were severely impacted by it. Public education was poor, and teachers offered private lessons to supplement their meagre pay.

Mubarak’s regime was corrupt and unable to provide basic amenities and jobs, but there was some degree of military freedom. The public respected the army, and the repression of the populace was never extreme. The army left once it became clear that the Mubarak dictatorship had lost all support from the populace. The youth were crucial to the revolution, just like in Tunisia. They were the ones instigating the uprising. The rebellion was primarily launched by urbane young people in cities.

What function does social media serve?

Hosni Mubarak meets fellow Egyptian presidents Anwar Sadat and Gamal Abdel Nasser in the afterlife and is asked how he got there, which he responds to with « Facebook ». Organization is key to transforming discontent into revolution, and social media plays a major role in this. Protests and social media networks contributed to the collapse of two regimes, Tunisia and Egypt, by coordinating protests and disseminating demands.

The April 6 Youth Movement was the main protesting group in Egypt, with 17 million internet users and 4 million Facebook users. The claim that Facebook brought down Mubarak’s administration is overstated, as the social media revolution was not started by them. The Egyptian authorities blocked access to the internet, but it wasn’t entirely blocked. IP proxy servers were employed to maintain the internet.

- (Yashni Madhoo)

Arab Revolution In Morocco

2011 On February 20, thousands of Moroccans demonstrated in Rabat to call on King Mohammed to cede part of his authority, chanting phrases like "Down with autocracy" and "The people want to reform the constitution". Separate demonstrations were taking place in Casablanca and Marrakech, and in Tangier, severe unrest and looting were widespread. On February 26, 1,000 people marched, and on March 13, several hundred individuals demonstrated. On March 20, 35,000 residents from various backgrounds and interests demonstrated peacefully, with some wanting more political reforms than those outlined by King Mohammed. In April and May, thousands demonstrated around the country, demanding reforms, an independent judiciary, constitutional revisions, parliamentary elections, and greater employment opportunities for university graduates. On June 5, 60,000 demonstrators participated in demonstrations in Rabat and Casablanca, many of whom were waving posters of Kamal Amari. ' 2012 On 27 May 2012, tens of thousands of Moroccans protested against the government's alleged failure to tackle unemployment and other social woes, accusing Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane of failing to deliver promised reforms. On 22 July, hundreds of protesters led by the 20 February Youth Movement marched in the working class area of Sidi Bernoussi in Casablanca and chanted against government policies, social marginalisation, and corruption. On 11 August, nearly 1,000 people gathered near the main boulevard in Rabat chanting anti-corruption slogans, denouncing the sharp rise in prices, and calling for the release of jailed activists. On 23 September, 500 demonstrators marched in Rabat to protest against corruption and political detentions, chanting slogans urging the authorities to release jailed activists.

(Deeanath Fahmidah)

The Arab Spring in Bahrain

The Arab Spring in the Bahrain was also knows as the Pearl Revolution. The uprising of the Bahrain was a turning point. However, the protests in Bahrain began on February 14th 2001 and were largely concerned by the Shia, who was demanding an expansion of the political freedom and participation. The main reason was because of poverty related to the Shiites in the Sunni monarchy.

However, the government and the protestors' hostilities, have been steadily rising ever since a police raid on February 17th, which resulted in the deaths of numerous activists. Some protesters change their focus from reform to overthrowing the Bahraini absolute monarchy. Violent protests with clashes between demonstrators and police were occurring on a daily basis. 10, 000 people march in cities and all were converged in a place called, ‘Pearl Roundabout’ to protest and call for the fall of the ruling of Al Kahalifa’s family-Sunni Monarchy. They had tight grip on power and were discriminating against the country’s dominant citizen, the Shia.

The media at that particular time called the protesters traitors and agents of Iran. Pro-government thugs attacked marchers in Bahrain, while the latter responded by fighting back. Bahrain's ruling family gave the go-ahead for approximately 1,500 persons from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to join the nation just one month into the revolution.

Therefore, Bahrain was one among the Arab country whose uprising was put down. According to Toby Jones, a professor of Middle East history at Rutgers University, This was because the United States and wanted it in that way. He added that if there a place across the globe where there is a huge gap between American interests and values, it is in the Persian Gulf. As the United State had already chosen sides, the country wanted Bahrain to regime to survive. It was a fundamental factor not only for the American relationship rather for Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

-Furreea Bibi Wazifa

Arab Spring in Yemen

Encouraged by protesters’ rapid successes in Tunisia and Egypt, protest movements emerged in Yemen in late January 2011. A number of the country’s most powerful tribal and military leaders aligned themselves with the pro-democracy protesters calling for the President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. The demonstrators sang pro-democracy slogans and denounced official corruption and extreme poverty. Saleh tried to make several negotiations in order to stop the protest, like he made a number of financial adjudgments including a decrease in income taxes and a rise in government employee compensation. He even promised to not stand for reelection when his current term would end in 2013. However, Saleh’s concessions were rejected by the protestors and protest continued in Sanaa. The clash between protesters and the police resulted into several deaths. Saleh signed an agreement in November 2011 that was mediated internationally and called for the vice president, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, to gradually take over the presidency. After running as the lone candidate in a presidential election in February 2012, Hadi promptly assumed control of the government and officially became the president in accordance with the agreement. Hadi's government, however, was unable to alleviate the situation or preserve security and was forced to deal with armed conflict and revolt, which in 2014 turned into a civil war.

Link:Yemen - Arab Spring and civil war | Britannica

[ Ramsun Priyadarshani Priyanka ]

Arab Uprising in Libya

In early 2011, mostly peaceful demonstrations against entrenched regimes in Egypt and Tunisia sparked rapid changes in power, amid waves of popular protests in countries in the Middle East and North Africa. But in Libya, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's uprising against his 42-year rule has led to civil war and international military intervention. The country was ruled by Gaddafi for 42 years, making him the longest-reigning leader in the Arab world. He came to power in 1969 after a bloodless coup against Libya’s King Idris I. What started off as protests against Gaddafi’s rule in Libya quickly descended into an armed conflict as security forces, loyal to Gaddafi, clashed with protesters, using warplanes to bomb them. This scenery was very different from what Egypt and Tunisia experienced. On 15 February 2011, an anti-government rally was held in Benghazi, attended by angry protesters over the arrest of human rights lawyer, Fethi Tarbel. Protesters demanded the resignation of Gaddafi and the release of political prisoners. Libyan security forces used water cannons and rubber bullets against the crowd, injuring many. By the 2nd week of the protest, almost 300 civilians were reported to have been killed. To further counter the demonstrations, pro-government rallies organized by the Libyan authorities were broadcast on state television. As protests intensified, protesters took control of Benghazi, and unrest spread to Tripoli, the Libyan government began to use deadly force against the protesters. Security forces and mercenaries fired live ammunition at demonstrators. The government's sudden escalation of violence against protesters and other civilians drew international condemnation from political leaders and human rights groups. It also appeared to undermine the regime's coherence, with many senior officials resigning in protest or issuing statements denouncing the regime, including the minister of justice and many senior Libyan diplomats, including the Libyan ambassador to the United Nations. Many Libyan embassies around the world began to fly Libyan pre-Gaddafi flags to show support for the rebellion. On February 22, Gaddafi delivered an angry rambling speech on state television, denouncing protesters as traitors and urging his supporters to fight them. He ignored calls to resign and vowed to remain in Libya. He denied using force against protesters, but repeatedly vowed to use force to stay in power. As violence continued and foreigners fled, international pressure mounted on Gaddafi to step down. The UN Security Council has unanimously approved measures including sanctions against the Gaddafi regime, travel bans and arms embargoes, and a freeze on Gaddafi family assets. The action also referred the situation in Libya to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Sanctions have also been imposed by the United States, the European Union (EU), and many other countries. On February 28, the US announced that it had frozen at least $30 billion in Libyan assets. The situation in Libya worsened as armed conflict continued and thousands of people, mostly migrant workers from Egypt and Tunisia, fled towards the border. Governments and humanitarian organizations have begun organizing efforts to address growing shortages of food, fuel and medical supplies across the country. On March 27, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officially took command of military operations in Libya, previously led by the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. The handover comes after days of debate between NATO countries on the limits of international military intervention. Several countries argued that the coalition's aggressive attacks on pro-Gaddafi ground forces exceeded mandates set by the UN Security Council to protect civilians. As the fighting progresses, even with NATO attacks on pro-Gaddafi forces, the Libyan rebels – poorly armed, unorganized forces with little military training – are unable to expel Gaddafi or Nor did he seem capable of decisive success against Gaddafi. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis stepped up when an AU delegation visited Tripoli on April 10 to present a ceasefire plan to Gaddafi. Pro-Gaddafi forces continued to launch attacks on him on April 11, but AU officials said Gaddafi had accepted the plan. The plan was rejected by rebel leaders on the grounds that it did not envision Gaddafi's withdrawal from Libya. NATO attacks continued, targeting many locations associated with Gaddafi and members of his inner circle, including: His son Saif al-Arab and three of Gaddafi's grandchildren were killed in a NATO airstrike in April. In June, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Gaddafi, his son Saif al-Islam and Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah Senusi for ordering attacks on civilians during the uprising. . Some observers expressed concern that his ICC lawsuit against Gaddafi would prevent him from voluntarily relinquishing power. Despite pressure from NATO attacks, rebel incursions into eastern and western regions of Libya, and international isolation of the Gaddafi regime, Gaddafi remained in power in Tripoli.

What marked the end of Gaddafi in Libya?

By early September, the rebels had consolidated their control of Tripoli and the TNC began shifting operations to the capital. Gaddafi was effectively ousted from power, but remained in hiding, occasionally issuing defiant voice messages. On October 20, Gaddafi was killed in his hometown of Sirte when rebels were spotted trying to gain control of the city. The TNC struggled to form a functioning government and exercise its powers in the months following the fall of Gaddafi's regime. Among the rebels, especially local rebel militias who fought independently in western Libya, were reluctant to submit to the interim government forming in eastern Libya, with little influence from the rest of the country, some of his TNC officials were suspicious of past relationships to the Gaddafi regime. The militias refused to disarm, and skirmishes between rival militias for territory were common.

Link: https://www.britannica.com/event/Libya-Revolt-of-2011 [ Ramnath Kareena Kumari ]

Arab Uprising in Saudi Arabia

In the era of the Arab Spring,1 Saudi Arabia has been one of a very small group of relatively unaffected Arab countries. Although there is increasing economic, social, and political pressure on the state, the Kingdom remains immune from the surprisingly widespread political upheavals; this immunity reveals mainly that the Saudi state’s sources of legitimacy are deeper than is usually conceived abroad. To put things into a wider context, changes within the domestic Saudi environment, which take the form of pressures, demands, and responses, were beginning gradually to occur long before the Arab Spring (having followed the 1990–1991 Gulf War). To this extent, we can speak about Saudi Arabia before the Arab Spring as “a kingdom in transition through evolution, not revolution.” In fact, the Arab Spring is merely a milestone, like many others that the Kingdom has previously had to contend with. However, it may just be the most important milestone so far, since it represents an intensification and accumulation of the previous milestones that may result in certain long-term though conditional changes within the domestic Saudi environment. The impact of the Arab Spring on Saudi Arabia’s domestic environment requires a separate and detailed analysis, and therefore will not be part of this chapter’s inquiry.

Link: Saudi Arabia and the Arab Spring: Opportunities and Challenges of Security [ Baramdoyal Tarvesh ]

Arab Spring in Syria

The popular unrest of Arab Spring that threatened a series of the Arab countries eventually reached Syria. In March 2011, in the southern city of Deraa in March 2011 people security forces open fire on demonstrators who were protesting corruption and also asking for greater freedom. Protesters asking for the repeal of restrictive emergency law, where people were arrested without charge. They were even requesting that political parties being legalized and that the corrupted officials be removed. In July protests were rapidly increased across the country and thousands of people were on the street to show their anger and demanding the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad’s. The security forces joined their efforts to fight the ‘terrorists’ and the criminal gangs but the uprising was out of control. Opposition supporters even joined in the fight to protect themselves Though there was an opposition , in February 2012 President Assad brought forward a referendum that approved a new constitution. President Assad was unable to control the magnifying pressure on his country as rebels took control on large parts of the north and the east and launched offensives on Damascus and Aleppo. In 2013, the conflict were slowly shifting In favour of Assad where government launched major offensives to recover territory and took control on the population centres in the south and west. In the meantime the appeal made by the rebels for weapons were rejected by western and Gulf allies. Facing the attack on the outskirts of Damascus in 2013 of chemical weapons, that costs the life of thousands people and Assad was forced onto defensive.

Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12482309

-Jeya Mootin

Arab Spring in Palestine

Palestine’s political system has been a chaos since 2007 after Hamas won the elections and took over the Gaza Strip. It resulted in conflicts between Hamas and Fatah, the leaders of the two states of Palestine namely Gaza and West Bank. The conflicts caused a lot of suffering to the Palestinians. Despite facing a lot grievances due to corruption, breakdown of basic services and other types of injustice, Palestinians did not want to revolt against their government. It was not their priority to get rid of their leaders. Being a country already drowned in grief, the Palestinians did not want to add up to their sufferings by getting involved in revolts. However, the Arab Spring did touch the Palestinians. They lived the Arab Spring as if their own country was involved when Egypt was victorious as they considered Egypt to be somehow their liberator. Soon, the revolts inspired the Palestine to fight for their rights too. However, the group of protestants were not huge enough to make big changes and the protagonists of protestations were mostly Palestinians who lived in border countries like Libya, Bahrain and Syria. The Arab Uprising caused the national reconciliation of Hamas and Fatah in 2011. However, implementing the terms of these reconciliation agreements had been proven difficult, and their failure gradually occurred due to internal and external factors. Today, revolts are still ongoing in Palestine but not against the Government of Hamas and Fatah, they are directed to the troops of Israeli installed in Gaza which represent a treat to the country.

- [François Marie Rebecca]

Jordan started witnessing protest in 2011, when the youth started voicing out for jobs and against the corruption the government was doing at that time. They were voicing for a fair democracy, and for that the King power had to reduce. At the beginning, the protests were conducted peacefully. It reportedly said that protestors would meet in mosques every Friday to tackle the above mentioned issue.

By the year 2012 things started to get deadlier. New electoral reforms to some extent adhered to what the protestors asked. However, the regime could not stand far in front of the opposition with the new electoral reforms. A sudden change occured when the Prime Minister of Jordan, Abdullah All-Nsour announced that subsidies would be removed from commodities such as petrol and fuel. This would have certainly impact on a high cost of living in the country. Consequently this is how thing became deadlier in Jordan, when protestors went on the streets.

People wanted to overthrow the King, and they attacked government buildings. At first some 107 people including 9 childrent were arrested. Leading later on for human rights activists to react against the government. Elections took place on 2013, where Island majority won against the Jordanian opposition. This furthered led to an ethnic conflict in the country. The US intervention, with the King Abdullah, has helped in further preventing conflicts among people In the country. It is said, the US sent some 200 army planners to Jordan to prevent violence.

(Mukul Doollah/2012344)