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The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on a decadal timescale. Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from specific external forcings. Examples these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun.

the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) can

Energy Transition Article - Examples of past energy transitions

An example of a long-term historic energy transition: share of primary energy by source in Portugal

Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary global energy sources even as renewables have begun rapidly increasing.

Historically, mechanized energy sources can broadly be categorized into renewable and nonrenewable forms, though most of these sources ultimately depend on energy from the sun. Renewables include solar energy, bioenergy from the conversion of solar radiation into chemical energy stored in plant tissue; wind energy, arising from solar driven pressure gradients in the atmosphere; hydropower from radiation-driven evaporation and precipitation that create flowing water, and energy from wind-driven waves and ocean currents. Fossil fuels are the most important sources of nonrenewable energy. Coal and most hydrocarbons (crude oils and natural gases) are derived from ancient biomass, compressed under high pressure for millions of years. The advent of nuclear fission reactors in the 1950s has brought another important source of energy. pp.2-5 Since the industrial revolution, societies have used these forms of energy to satisfy a variety of needs. These needs include: heat, light, industrial power, and freight and passenger transport.p7

Past energy transitions may offer lessons for today’s changes.p1 Two fundamental transitions, from plant based energy to fossil fuels, and from animals to mechanical devices, have taken place during just the last few centuries. For countries such as China and India these changes have happened in just the past several decades. pp25-6

Other historical energy trends have significance for the current transition. The quest for higher efficiencies, and less wasted energy, has been a major driver in the evolution of modern energy systems. p8 In the past century there has been a steady decline of industrial and agricultural energy use and an increase in the transportation and household sectors. In 1950 industry consumed more than half of the world's energy; by 2010 that share declined to about 25%.p10

Historical “energy transitions” since 1800 have been described as transitions from biomass, to coal, to oil, to natural gas, with renewables now entering the mix. This picture is based on analyses that focus on the proportion of energy derived from various sources. Some historical events support this narrative. When Britain had to resort to coal after largely having run out of wood, the resulting fuel crisis triggered a chain of events that two centuries later culminated in the Industrial Revolution. Similarly, increased use of peat and coal were vital elements paving the way for the Dutch Golden Age, roughly spanning the entire 17th century. Another example where resource depletion triggered technological innovation and a shift to new energy sources is 19th century whaling: whale oil eventually became replaced by kerosene and other petroleum-derived products. However, looking at total global energy use of all sources provides a picture more of an addition of various source over time, rather than one of new sources replacing old one.pp41-42

A key feature of historical energy development that is relevant for the current transition is the emergence of electricity as a form of energy, which began in the late 19th century. Pp25-6 There are many reasons why electricity has now become a preferred form of energy in modern society. Electricity's economic benefits are unsurpassed by any other fuel. It is highly efficient, offers greater productivity, and has unequaled flexibility. It’s uses range from lighting to space heating to mechanization, where it serves a wide variety of industries. It is used in both stationary motors and mobile transport. It allows for precise control of delivery, from low watt use in electronics to multi-gigawatt flows in electrical grids. It can be activated by flipping a switch, and produces quiet and clean energy at it’s point of delivery. It’s critical role in the digital age makes it even more fundamental. P39

The chronologically first discourse was most broadly described by Vaclav Smil. It underlines the change in the energy mix of countries and the global economy. By looking at data in percentages of the primary energy source used in a given context, it paints a picture of the world's energy systems as having changed significantly over time, going from biomass to coal, to oil, and now a mix of mostly coal, oil and natural gas. Until the 1950s, the economic mechanism behind energy systems was local rather than global. Historically, there is a correlation between an increasing demand for energy and availability of different energy sources.

The second discourse was most broadly described by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. It emphasises that the term "energy transition" was first used by politicians, not historians, to describe a goal to achieve in the future – not as a concept to analyse past trends. When looking at the sheer amount of energy being used by humankind, the picture is one of ever-increasing consumption of all the main energy sources available to humankind. For instance, the increased use of coal in the 19th century did not replace wood consumption, indeed more wood was burned. Another example is the deployment of passenger cars in the 20th century. This evolution triggered an increase in both oil consumption (to drive the car) and coal consumption (to make the steel needed for the car). In other words, according to this approach, humankind never performed a single energy transition in its history but performed several energy additions.

Contemporary energy transitions differ in terms of motivation and objectives, drivers and governance. As development progressed, different national systems became more and more integrated becoming the large, international systems seen today. Historical changes of energy systems have been extensively studied. While historical energy changes were generally protracted affairs, unfolding over many decades, this does not necessarily hold true for the present energy transition, which is unfolding under very different policy and technological conditions.

Smil 2010>Energy Transitions

Global, interdependent, integrated energy infrastructure-p13* *Energy use and GDP-p14* *Universal patterns of energy transition-pp.25 to 26* *Unique role of electricity: benefits, feature, drivers -pp.39 to 44.

Electricity as a primary and secondary source-p6

Sovocol-historical record does seemingly support the mainstream view that energy transitions all take time -p205* * *however, three arguments in favor of rapid transition: (1) some past fast transitions in terms of energy end-use and prime movers, (2) examples of rapid national-scale transitions in energy supply exist, (3) the drivers of future transitions may differ fundamentally from the drivers of historical transitions -p207* *although previous,transitions may have taken a great deal of time, we have learned a sufficient amount from them so that contemporary, or future, energy transitions can be expedited. -p210* *newly developed policy mechanisms such as production tax credits, feed-in tariffs, and renewable portfolio standards can hasten the adoption of preferred technologies - p211

O’Connor 2010>Energy Transitions - Factors that contribute to energy transitions include: supply constraints, cost advantages, performance advantages and policy decisions (pp.16 -19); more comprehensive list of energy transition since 1850 (Table 1, p.21); transitions in terms of energy service provided, including: heating lighting, transportation, mechanical power, and cooling (pp.21-30); aspects in developing countries, relevance for today (pp.33-38)

Pearson 2012> A low carbon industrial revolution? Insights and challenges from past technological and economic transformations - Scale of changes in technologies, institutions and practices currently necessary is comparable with the scale of changes experienced in past industrial revolutions so productivity gains and economic welfare benefits ensuing from a low carbon transition may be similar to those of past revolutions (p 117); because mitigating climate change is a social good, it requires effective and systemic policy to promote a low carbon transition and avoid ‘escape routes' associated with partial solutions - differs from past industrial revolutions that were primarily driven by the private economic benefits of adopting new technologies and practices(p.121); introduction of new technologies that have widespread potential uses, the scope for further cost reductions as they are deployed, and the potential for stimulating complementary innovations has historically contributed significantly to enduring productivity gains and the spread of economic benefits (p.125); previous industrial revolutions involved profound, long drawn-out, interacting changes not simply in technology but also in markets (and trade), institutions, culture and society (p.125)

Fouquet 2016> Historical energy transitions: speed, prices and system transformation - Important factors in determining the speed of a transition is how incumbents react to new competitors. Potential to fight back, creating ‘last-gasp' effects -transitions are just as much about the decline of incumbent industries as about the rise of new ones. p5* * past energy transitions have been characterised by major increases in energy consumption - example for today is transition to electric vehicles leading to greatly increased electricity demand - p6* *energy transitions can be seen as catalysts for certain economic, social and political transformations. -p9* *In the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, as new energy sources and technologies were introduced, large shares of the population were left on the margins for decades - relevant today for less developed countries - p10

Smil 2020> Energy Transitions: Fundamentals in Six Points -History of the industrial era as a continuous sequence of transitions to more convenient and cleaner fuels, better inanimate prime movers (from steam engines to steam turbines and internal combustion engines) and to higher share of final energy use delivered as electricity-p3

Breetz 2018> The political logics of clean energy transitions - When new technologies become cheaper than existing technologies, some of the political conflicts are dissipated and the market can drive rapid deployment - we are at this stage now for certain renewable energy sources, such as solar PV and onshore wind. However, scaling up from niche to mass adoption requires further political support for developing complementary technology, infrastructure, and market reforms (p.493); different political logics shape clean energy transitions at different stages of the “experience curve” (which models production costs or prices as a function of cumulative manufacturing experience). These political dynamics generate evolving pressures for policymaking and demand different levels or types of coalition-building among pro-transition groups (p.493); description of recent past showing how politics and coalitions have changed as societies have moved from top to bottom of “experience curve”(pp.502-517)

Carbon Offset to do's

Multiple cite PDFs

• NICA
• note market size increased five times between 2017 and 2021, not three. Per iOSCO report page 6.

Types of offset projects

• Forestry projects have highest level of growth (ClimateTrade)
• Unique co-benefits: biodiversity, boosting climate change adaptation capacity, WBCSD p18-19

Programs and markets

• Changes in prices (ICAP 2023 p 34)
• Examples -EU, CA Trading Systems (EC 2022, CA-ARB 2022, Stillwater 2018)
• Carbon Market exchanges ( CarbonMarketCap 2022 )
• Use overview of participants from WBCSD 2023
• note how standards support, compliance program, like vera and gold support voluntary

Other Domestic Programs

• California Compliance Offset Program (CARB) – offset portion that supports ETS
• Australia Emission Reduction Fund (EFR)
• Taiwan Offset Program
• See Background and general features

Voluntary carbon markets and certification programs

• Mention American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, Credible Carbon (South Africa)?
• Include from old offset article?: Once carbon offset credits are generated, any buyer may purchase them; for example an individual may purchase carbon offsets to compensate for the emissions resulting from air-travel.

Limitations

Still to do

• Additionality in particular can be difficult to determine. (Gold 2022, SEI 2020 p.19)
• Overestimation, lack of permanence, double counting of project reductions  (SEI 2020 pp.23-29)
• Timing issues (Cadman 2022 p 82)

Unused references

• Need to get forestry right - WRI Carbon Shot. Other issues from (Science News, dezeen 2021, SourceMaterial 2023)

• Considered a cost effective near term solution for emission reductions (IETA p.1)

Lack of effectiveness (Citations #90, #91, Guardian 2023, Verra Response - Carbon accounting references? Bloomberg 2020)

Recent trends

Integrity Initiatives

• With all of the controversies, around credit quality, and numerous predictions of a rapidly growing market, a lot of recent focus on ways of improving Offset and Credit Quality

• Task Force on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets
  • Key principles
    • Producing open-source solutions for private-sector organisations to take forward. The Voluntary carbon markets must have high environmental integrity and seek to do no harm. Amplify existing and ongoing work of parallel initiatives. Avoid disincentivising emissions reduction efforts. White & Case

COP 26-27 Developments

• EU and US (ETA) both developing credit QA programs.

GHG Accounting Notes

Others issues

• From EMsmile - additional citations for lead, GHG protocol could be depicted more prominently
• Include graphic depiction of accounting process showing the steps in like in this NZ guidance or ICI report?
• include a graphic on consumption based emissions for community protocol section
• Clarify distinction between Net Zero discussion in "Other applications" section and Net Zero discussion in "Current trends" section
• In Current Trends - Briefly discuss carbon credit rating agencies, as distinct from auditors who verify credits (Carbon Credits 2022)

Content Issues

Current trends

• Use of blockchain for tracking carbon credits (Kuralbayeva 2022, Kim 2020)

Limitations/criticisms

• Additionality for Article 6.2 projects- (Gold 2022)
• Non-permanence (Brander 2020)

Other

• Coalitions forming to define consensus standards and ensure integrity of carbon credit projects (ICVCM), (VCMII)
• Potential for more integrated and interoperable reporting (Luers 2022)
• Enhanced scrutiny of greenwashing-for all ESG reporting (Salaheldin 2022) - low priority

• Lot's of players in net zero arena DuckDuck Search-net zero tracker report

• Apps to look at footprints of commercial products (Bustle 2022)

• GPC Reporting guidelines provide a cross reference with Scope 1, 2 and 3 from corporate reporting guide. (GHG Protocol Exec Sum) p.7
• Include mention of World Benchmarking Alliance
• Note the 2006 IPCC protocols in history section
• In drivers section, focus more on GHG accounting in ETSs
• add BSI PAS 2060 to uses – NetZero subsection maybe covered in future trends-net zero?
• There is no discussion of effects on financial performance in the effectiveness section. Should there be?
• Add CORSIA and link to voluntary standards per EDF 2021 p1
• Climate Action Reserve, American Carbon Registry - -Note–should these be discussed as well?
• Future trend of "double materiality". (Politico) International Sustainability Standards Board proposed disclosure rule (Cohn 2022). Issue of single versus double materiality(ThomasReuters 2022
• Add article on Governing Corporate Claims to drivers?
• Oxford principles- Cut emissions, use high quality offsets, and regularly revise offsetting strategy as best practice evolves -Shift to carbon removal offsetting (Oxford principles)
• Mention that Verra is standard of choice for most forest credits generated for the voluntary carbon market, and almost all REDD+ projects. (Chagas et. al. 2020 p.5)?

From reviews

• Note the continued need to clarify what GHG accounting metrics are appropriate for what purposes. -Michael G
• Importance of ranking – Stakeholder Takeover Project. -Lynn
• Include mention of World Benchmarking Alliance. - Lynn

Not planned to do

• Reporting to CDP allows cities to transparently track their progress (CDP 2021, CDP Portal 2021)
• Other sources on project accounting Grattan Institute 2021 pp.15-16, OneTrust 2022, WWF2008 pp.15-19, (Gold 2022 p.5)
• Discuss financial performance?

References

Other books, reports and journals cited

• IEA (2023). World Energy Outlook 2023 (PDF) (Report). Paris, France. Retrieved 25 October 2021.{{cite report}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)

• Broekhoff, Derik; Gillenwater, Michael; Colbert-Sangree, Tani; Cage, Patrick (2019). Securing Climate Benefit: A Guide to Using Carbon Offsets (PDF) (Report). Stockholm Environment Institute & Greenhouse Gas Management Institute. Retrieved December 17, 2022.
• Cadman, Tim; Hales, Robert (2022-06-01). "COP26 and a Framework for Future Global Agreements on Carbon Market Integrity". The International Journal of Social Quality. 12 (1): 79–80. doi:10.3167/IJSQ.2022.120105.
• Kizzier, K.; Hanafi, A.; Ogata, C.; Kellyand, A.; et al. (2021). Trends in the Voluntary Carbon Markets: Where We Are and What's Next (PDF) (Report). Environmental Defense Fund and ENGIE Impact. Retrieved February 17, 2023.
• EPA (2018). Emerging Trends in Supply Chain Emissions Engagement (PDF) (Report). Retrieved February 17, 2023.
• Fong, Wee Kean; Sotos, Mary; Doust, Michael; Schultz, Seth; et al. (2021). Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Inventories (PDF) (Report). World Resources Institute.
• Green, Jessica (2010). "Private Standards in the Climate Regime: The Greenhouse Gas Protocol" (PDF). Business and Politics. 12 (3): 1–37. doi:10.2202/1469-3569.1318. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
• LoPucki, Lynn M. (May 20, 2022). "Corporate Greenhouse Gas Disclosures". 56 UC Davis Law Review, No. 1, UCLA School of Law, Public Law Research Paper No. 22-11. SSRN 4051948. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
• Michaelowa, Axel; Shishlov, Igor; Hoch, Stephan; Bofill, Patricio; et al. (2019). Overview and Comparison of Existing Carbon Crediting Cchemes (PDF) (Report). Helsinki: Nordic Initiative for Cooperative Approaches (NICA) and Perspectives Climate Group Gmbh. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
• Ranganathan, J.; Corbier, L.; Bhatia, P.; Schmitz, S.; et al. (March 2004). GHG Protocol Corporate Accounting and Reporting Standard (PDF) (Report). World Resources Institute. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
• Rich, D.; Bhatia, P.; Finnegan, J.; Levin, K.; Mitra, A. (2004). The GHG Protocol for Project Accounting (PDF) (Report). World Resources Institute. Retrieved December 22, 2022.
• Schneider, L.; Kollmuss, A.; Lazarus, M. (2014). Addressing the risk of double counting emission reductions under the UNFCCC (PDF) (Report). SEI. Retrieved December 31, 2022.
• SBTi Criteria and Recommendations (PDF) (Report). 5.0. Science Based Targets Initiative. October 2021. Retrieved February 17, 2023.
• World Bank (2022). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2022. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1895-0. Retrieved 24 March 2023.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: ref duplicates default (link) CS1 maint: url-status (link)