Global warming (edit of 9 Feb 2020 - was reverted)
editLead additions
editA global warming of 1.5 °C could already be reached in 2028[1]. Beyond this level the risk of an irreversible impact increases.[2]
In the short term, global warming can only be mitigated by a substancial drop in CO2 emissions. This requires the substitution of fossil fuels by large-scale capacities of renewable energy in electricity, transport and the heat sector.[3]
Levelised costs of wind energy and solar photovoltaics are increasingly out-competing coal, gas and nuclear power
[4]
but require energy storage or power superhighways for a constant supply in a 100% sustainable scenario.
Mitigation
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Climate change can be mitigated through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or the enhancement of the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.[5] The main challenge is the substitution of fossil fuels in electricity, transport and the heat sector which count for more than 70% of greenhouse gas emissions.[6]. The massive price drops for renewable energy offer a chance to reduce oil, gas and coal. [7]
Immediate steps to reduce GHG emissions:
- Accellerated installation of wind energy, solar photovoltaics, concentrated solar power and hydroelectricity (at least six-fold compared to current plans). [8][9]
- A super grid of long distance HVDC power lines can transfer energy with low losses of only 1.5% per 1000 km[10] from areas with a high potential for renewable energy to demand centres. A large network can guarantee supply in hours when wind and sun are not available locally. China supports the idea of a global, intercontinental grid. [11] For a super grid in the USA, a study predicted 80% less GHG emissions. [12]
- Energy storage systems allow an independent, reliable supply for a limited network. Power-to-gas or the conversion to hydrogen can be produces without limits but reduce efficiency down to 30-40%. Batteries are more efficient but have a limited capacity. The environmental impact of their production must be improved.[13] A study by the Imperial College of London calculated the lowest levelised cost of different systems. In 2020, pumped hydro (PHES), compressed air (CAES) and Li-on batteries are most cost effective depending on charging rhythm. For 2040, a more significant role for Li-on and hydrogen are projected.[14]
- Electrification of vehicles and the heat sector (with efficient heat pumps)
- Energy conservation and increased energy efficiency
- Load management of industrial energy consumption can help to balance the production of renewable energy production and its demand
- less meat consumption would lower methane emissions. [15]
- Carbon pricing by tax and carbon emissions trading.
Mid-term effects can be achieved by:
- the enhancement of the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere[16] by reforestation and preventing deforestation.[17]
Controversial approaches include:
- An increased use of nuclear energy[18]: Apart from the risk of nuclear disasters and attacks, the disposal of radioactive waste can cause environmental damage and costs over more than one million years. Separated plutonium could be used for nuclear weapons. [19][20]
- Negative emissions by carbon capture and storage are part of many IPCC scenarios though CCS is energy intensive and expensive.
Geopoliticial Impacts of an Energy Transition
editIn 2019, oil and gas companies were listed by Forbes with sales of US$ 4.8 trillion, about 5 % of the global GDP.[21]. Net importers such as China and the EU would gain advantages from a transition to low-carbon technologies driven by technological development, energy efficiency or climate change policy, while Russia, the USA or Canada could see their fossil fuel industries nearly shut down.[22]. On the other hand, countries with large areas such as Australia, Russia, China, the USA, Canada and Brazil and also Africa and the Middle East have a potential for huge installations of renewable energy. The production of renewable energy technologies requires Rare-earth elements with new supply chains.[23] A 2015 report by Citibank concluded that transitioning to a low-carbon economy would yield a positive return on investments.[24]
- ^ "CO2 countdown". Mercator Institute. Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers 2018, p. 7:Future climate-related risks depend on the rate, peak and duration of warming. In the aggregate, they are larger if global warming exceeds 1.5°C before returning to that level by 2100 than if global warming gradually stabilizes at 1.5°C, especially if the peak temperature is high (e.g., about 2°C) (high confidence). Some impacts may be long-lasting or irreversible, such as the loss of some ecosystems (high confidence).
- ^ "Global energy transformation: A roadmap to 2050" (PDF). International Renewable Energy Agency. Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (LCOE 13.0) and Storage Analysis (5.0)". Lazard. Retrieved 31 January 2020.
- ^ Mitigation Archived 21 January 2015 at the Wayback Machine, in USGCRP 2015.
- ^ "GHG Emissions". CAIT Climate Data Explorer. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
- ^ "Falling Renewable Power Costs Open Door to Greater Climate Ambition". IRENA. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
- ^ "Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050 (2019 edition)" (PDF). IRENA. Retrieved 29 January 2020.
- ^ "Global Energy Concept". Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "UHV Grid". Global Energy Interconnection (GEIDCO). Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "GEIDCO development strategy". Global Energy Interconnection (GEIDCO). Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "North American Supergrid" (PDF). Climate Institute (USA). Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "The spiralling environmental cost of our lithium battery addiction". WIRED. Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "Projecting the Future Levelized Cost of Electricity Storage Technologies". CellPress. Retrieved 31 January 2020.
- ^ "Lifestock and Climate Change" (PDF). World Watch Institute. Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ Mitigation Archived 21 January 2015 at the Wayback Machine, in USGCRP 2015.
- ^ IPCC AR4 SYR 2007, Section 4: Adaptation and mitigation options Archived 1 May 2010 at the Wayback Machine; Table TS.3, in IPCC AR5 WG3 Technical Summary 2014, p. 68; The Guardian, 4 July 2019.
- ^ "Ramp up nuclear power to beat climate change, says UN nuclear chief". UN. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
- ^ "Nuclear Reprocessing: Dangerous, Dirty, and Expensive". Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "Is nuclear power the answer to climate change?". World Information Service on Energy. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
- ^ "Oil and gas companies earn most revenue in Forbes 2019 largest firms list". NS Energy. Retrieved 3 February 2020.
- ^ "Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets (Abstract)". Nature Climate Change. Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ "The Geopolitics Of Renewable Energy" (PDF). Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University SIPA / Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School. Retrieved 26 January 2020.
- ^ The Guardian, 31 August 2015.