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User:I edit things that come to mind/sandbox/Military Analysis (For 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine)

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Military analysis for the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Pre-invasion analysis and predictions

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Doubts about Russian invasion

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Prior to the invasion, a number of news outlets and think tanks have expressed doubt on the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine.

The Lowy Institute expressed doubt that Russia would invade due to a number of reasons: Russia would be confronting a better trained and equipped Ukrainian military compared to its very poor state in 2014, the Ukrainian people would be less sympathetic or hostile to Russian occupation compared to pre-2014, severe sanctions in response to the invasion, astronomical post-war reconstruction, and the number of Russian soldiers on the border (~127,000 troops) would need to be three times bigger to make a full-scale invasion successful.[1]

Invasion scenarios

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See also: Prelude to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Initially, many experts and observers gave a generally bleak outlook for the Ukrainian defenders, believing that the Russian military would easily overwhelm them.

The Lowy Institute, although skeptical about a then-possible Russian invasion, believes the Russian forces would rapidly sweep through Ukraine after establishing air superiority.[1]

In a commentary written by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a hypothetical NATO-backed Ukrainian insurgency against the Russian military would become more and more dire and costly should Russia control more territory of Ukraine. The CSIS stated that if Russia manages to subjugate the Ukrainian population it would damage the West's reputation and likely emboldened Russia to threaten or attack its former Soviet neighbors.[2]

In an interview with NPR, Mykola Sunhurovskyi, a top military analyst for the Razumkov Center think-tank, stated that if Russia invaded Ukraine it would likely face a large-scale guerilla war.[3]

Comparison between the Russian and Ukrainian military

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According to Global Firepower Index, in 2022 Russia possesses the second most powerful military in the world. Comparingly, Ukraine is ranked 22nd in the world. Global Firepower notes that Russia possesses an overwhelming advantage over Ukraine by having a much larger military budget, more manpower, and fielding more tanks, armored vehicles, artilleries, aircraft, and naval warships.[4][5][6]

Some observers have noted that the Ukrainian military has vastly improved from its initial poor state in 2014 during the Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation and the beginning of the War in Donbas.[1][3][6][7] Politico and the Atlantic Council noted that years of combat against the Russian backed separatists, increased military spending, and supplies and training provided by Western militaries have transformed the Ukrainian military into a larger and better organized fighting force.[6][7] Likewise, on an organizational level, Ukraine have been trying to part ways with its Soviet-era practice in favor of adopting NATO/Western-standard practices and reforms, such as the adoption of an Non-commissioned officer (NCO) corps.[7]

However, Politico also noted that Russia has conducted extensive modernization effort on their military since 2008, while Ukraine heavily relies on Soviet-era weapons. Likewise, Ukraine also lacks effective air defense systems to protect key infrastructures and military assets from air or missile strikes and suffers from corruption and bureaucratic road blocks that inhibits the country's military potential.[6] The Atlantic Council echoed similarly, stating that Ukraine's large reliance on old equipment and infrastructure, corruption, and shortcomings or lack of progress in its reforms have inhibited the Ukrainian military's growth and potential.[7] Likewise, Newsweek notes that the Ukrainian Air Force has not modernized compared to Ukrainian Ground Forces, leaving it operating with mostly Soviet-era aircraft; the latest one being over 30 years old. While Russia does operate the same aircraft as Ukraine it also possesses more advanced aircraft such as the Sukhoi Su-35 and Su-34, as well as the potent air defense systems like the S-400, to effectively establish air superiority over Ukraine.[8] The Lowy Institute, while acknowledging the Ukrainian military is much stronger than it was in 2014, believes the Russian military is overall better trained and more technologically advanced.[1] Mykola Sunhurovskyi stated that the Ukrainian lacks sufficient air defenses, advanced electronic warfare, artillery and missiles to defend against Russia; military components which Western nations have not provided but Ukraine desperately needed.[3]

In terms of tanks, Russia and Ukraine both operate similar tanks, namely the T-64 and T-72, although Russia is known to possess more tanks overall. According to army-technology.com, modernized Ukrainian T-64 tanks are technologically superior than most Russian tanks.[9]

Analysis of the invasion

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Tactics and combat performance

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2022

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2023

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2024

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Logistics

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Air warfare

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Morale

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Russia

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Ukraine

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Information warfare

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See also: Russian information war against Ukraine and Disinformation in the 2021–2022 Russo-Ukrainian crisis

Casualties

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See also: Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Russians

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Ukrainians

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Deaths of high-ranking officers

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See also: List of Russian generals killed during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine

Foreign fighters

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Weapons and equipment

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See also: Weapons of the Russo-Ukrainian War and List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War

In general

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Foreign supplied weapons and distinctions

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HIMARS

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Usages of very old weapons

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Improvised weapons, vehicles, and modifications

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Radio interception/Electronic warfare

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Cyber warfare

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Mobilization, Mercenaries and Foreign Fighters

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See also: International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine

Russia

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Ukraine

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Role of Women

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International support

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Escalations

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Lessons, debates, and impacts

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Logistics

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Weapons

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Artillery

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Drones

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Tanks and anti-tank weapons

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Captured

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T-90 tank
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Leadership role

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Military response and development by countries

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Gauging military strength

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Questions about Russia's true military capabilities

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Planning and execution of complex operations

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Leadership

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Corruption

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Quality

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Political Factions and Infighting

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Ultranationalists

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Rise and Fall of Wagner influence

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Private militaries

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Effects on military operations

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Reputational damage

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International standing

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Arms export

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Milbloggers

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References

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  1. ^ a b c d Muraviev, Alexey (21 January 2022). "2022 is not 2014: What holds back Russia from Ukraine". Lowy Institute. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  2. ^ Harding, Emily (15 February 2022). "Scenario Analysis on a Ukrainian Insurgency". Center for Strategic & International Studies. Retrieved 28 April 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  3. ^ a b c "Ukrainian military is long on morale but short on weaponry". NPR. 10 December 2021. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  4. ^ Kaushik, Krishn (24 February 2022). "Explained: The military strengths of Russia and Ukraine, compared". The Indian Express. Retrieved 31 March 2022.
  5. ^ Abay, Emre G. (15 February 2022). "Eyes turn to military capacities as Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates". AA. Retrieved 31 March 2022.
  6. ^ a b c d Peleschuk, Dan (14 April 2021). "Ukraine's military poses a tougher challenge for Russia than in 2014". Politico. Retrieved 28 April 2022.
  7. ^ a b c d Zagorodnyuk, Andriy; Frolova, Alina; Midtunn, Hans P.; Pavliuchyk, Oleksii (23 December 2021). "Is Ukraine's reformed military ready to repel a new Russian invasion?". Atlantic Council. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  8. ^ Cole, Brendan (26 January 2022). "Ukraine's 30-Year-Old Fighter Jets Hand Russia the Air Advantage in Any War". Newsweek. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  9. ^ Neumann, Norbert (9 February 2022). "Does Russia or Ukraine have better tanks?". Army Technology. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
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