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User:Jaredscribe/Tesla master plan 20220327

< User:Jaredscribe

The Tesla master plan is the mission statement of American electric vehicle and clean energy company Tesla Inc. to "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."[1][2][3] For a $10 trillion investment, Musk claims the entire world can move wholesale to a renewable energy grid to power electric cars, planes, and ships.[4] It presents the business model of Tesla, Inc. as part of a strategic plan for a fossil-fuel phase-out leading to a renewable energy transition, in order to prevent civilizational collapse. The plan was first introduced in 2006, and updated in 2016 and 2023. A low-carbon economy.[5][6]

Part one (2006)

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On August 2, 2006, it appeared as it appeared on the company website. Stated in the opening sentence:

The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.

Summarized thus:

  1. Build sports car
  2. Use that money to build an affordable car
  3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car
  4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options[7][8]

Landfill-safe batteries

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Landfill-safe batteries which can be sold to recycling companies at the end of their 100,000 mile design life.

Lowest Power plan emissions

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Tesla Roadster Nat Gas-Electric 14.4 g/MJ 1.14 km/MJ 12.6 g/km

Co-marketing photovoltaic cells

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Photovoltaic cells to be provided by SolarCity, of which Musk is the principal financier. Generate enough energy for ~50 miles / day, allowing one who drives under 350 miles / week to become "carbon-negative" even push energy back onto the grid.[9]

Part deux (2016)

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Part deux was released in 2016,[10] outlining a plan for vertical integrating the company.[11]

"By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better"[12]

[13]

Integrating Energy Generation and Storage

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Announcing acquisition/merger with SolarCity. Plan to "empower the individual as their own utility" by scaling Powerwall "thoughout the world".

Expand product line to all major forms of terrestrial transport

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Announces a "compact SUV" and a pickup truck, to complete its offering to the consumer market.

Announces that the Model 3 will be its lowest-cost vehicle. That production volume will scale up "as quickly as possible", by refocusing Tesla engineering on designing the factory that makes the product.

"A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018"

For cargo, a semi-trailer truck.

For high-density urban-transport, a smaller autonomous bus with no center aisles, with acceleration and braking matched to thatof other vehicles, which will reduce inertial impedance to traffic flow.

Autonomous Self-Driving

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Announces that all vehicles will have Tesla Autopilot with fail-operational capability.

Claims that when used correctly it is already safer than human driver. "We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is ha"ppening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day."

Says that when it becomes 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning, then the "beta" label will be removed.

Ride-sharing

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Says that when self-driving is approved, owners will be able to "summon" their car from anywhere. This will allow them to rent their cars, driving down cost of ownership. Says that in some cities, Tesla will operate its own fleet and offer a ride-hailing service.

Analysis and criticisms

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Bloomberg observes in July 2022 that although Tesla has become the world's most valuable car company, by a wide margin, since the plan was released, the company has fallen short or completely missed its original four goals.[14]

Part three (2023)

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Was announced in March 2022.[15] In a company meeting in June 2022, Musk summarized:

That’s what Master Plan Part 3 is: How do you get to enough scale to actually shift the entire energy infrastructure of earth?[16]

He announced 7 Feb 2023 that he would present a "the path to a fully sustainable energy future for earth" on 1 March.[17][18][19][20]

Revealed at his annual investor day on March 1, he did not reveal a new car model.[21][22] Vowed to half the costs of EV production.[23] Musk said: “There is a clear path to a sustainable-energy Earth. It doesn’t require destroying natural habitats. It doesn’t require us to be austere and stop using electricity and be in the cold or anything.” He added, “In fact, you could support a civilization much bigger than Earth, much more than the 8 billion humans could actually be supported sustainably on Earth.”[24]

Requirements

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Requirements for a sustainable energy economy[25]
Battery Storage Renewable Power Manufacturing Investment Energy Required Land area required 2022 GDP
240 TWh 30TW $10T 1/2 <0.2% 10%

The plan

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  1. Re-power existing grid with renewables - 24 TWh, 10TW (solar + wind), $.8T
  2. Switch to electric vehicles - 115 TWh (batteries and stationary storage, 4TW (solar + wind) $7.0T (investment)
  3. Switch to Heat pumps in homes, businesses, and industry.
  4. Electrify high temp heat delivery for industrial use. 48TWh (stationary storage), 6TW, $0.8T
  5. Sustainable fuel planes and boats. 44TWh, 4TW, $0.8T

Next generation vehicle platform

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Acknowleged that as transition to clean energy results in increased demand for rare earth metals, the mining of these has environmental and health risks.

The next generation vehicle's battery will use no rare earth metals, and no silicon carbide.

Controllers and Electronics

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Electronic fuses replace moving parts with solid state transistors. Allow software to do load shedding, software controlled retries, transient faults, monitoring. software-controlled hardware: context-awareness, context-specific behavior in hardware.

Replaced lead acid with Lithium-ion batteries which will last for the life of the car.

Low-voltage architecture. 48 volt electrical system will replace 12 volt design. Reduction in current allows smaller wires, smaller e-fuses, controllers, heat sinks. They welcome OEMs and suppliers to join them in this evolution.

Primary Sources

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  • Musk, Elon (March 2023). "Investor Day 2023 Keynote - Master Plan 3".
  • Musk, Elon (2016) Master Plan, Part Deux – Tesla, Inc.
  • Musk, Elon (2006) The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) – Tesla, Inc.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Desjardins, Jeff. "Here's what the future of Tesla could look like". Business Insider. Retrieved 2023-03-27.
  2. ^ Domonske, Camila (1 March 2023). "Tesla has a new master plan. It's not a new car — just big thoughts on planet Earth". NPR.
  3. ^ "What's in Elon Musk's Master Plan 3 for Tesla investors? Here's what we know". Austin American-Statesman. Retrieved 2023-03-27.
  4. ^ Marshall, Aarian. "The Mystery Vehicle at the Heart of Tesla's New Master Plan". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Retrieved 2023-03-28.
  5. ^ "Tesla Unveils Third 'Master Plan' Reaching for Sustainable Energy Economy". Car and Driver. 2023-03-02. Retrieved 2023-03-23.
  6. ^ Shakir, Umar (2023-03-02). "Elon Musk unveils a new Master Plan, a path to sustainable energy future, but no new cars". The Verge. Retrieved 2023-03-23.
  7. ^ "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)". Tesla, Inc. 2006-08-02. Archived from the original on December 4, 2017. Retrieved 2022-08-11.
  8. ^ Alvarez, Simon (July 28, 2019). "Each step of Elon Musk's first Tesla Master Plan visualized in concept video". TESLARATI. Archived from the original on August 11, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  9. ^ "Elon Musk's Complete Master Plan". Solar Tribune. Archived from the original on August 11, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  10. ^ "Musk's Master Plan Met With Indifference From Tesla Investors". Bloomberg news. July 21, 2016. Archived from the original on September 6, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  11. ^ Stewart, Jack. "This Is the Enormous Gigafactory, Where Tesla Will Build Its Future". Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. Retrieved 2023-03-27.
  12. ^ "Master Plan, Part Deux". Tesla, Inc. 2016-07-20. Archived from the original on July 2, 2017. Retrieved 2022-08-11.
  13. ^ Staff, Ars (2016-07-21). "Musk: Tesla to become a sustainable energy company". Ars Technica. Retrieved 2023-03-27.
  14. ^ "Elon Musk Crafts New Master Plan Before Tesla Pulls Off the Old One". Bloomberg news. July 27, 2022. Archived from the original on July 27, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  15. ^ Lambert, Fred (March 17, 2022). "Elon Musk says he is going to release Tesla's Master Plan Part 3". Electrek. Archived from the original on August 11, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  16. ^ Lambert, Fred (2022-06-09). "Elon Musk reveals what Tesla's Master Plan Part 3 is about". Electrek. Archived from the original on August 11, 2022. Retrieved 2022-08-11.
  17. ^ Korosec, Kirsten (2023-02-08). "Here's when Tesla CEO Elon Musk will finally reveal his Master Plan 3". TechCrunch. Retrieved 2023-03-27.
  18. ^ Reuters (2023-02-08). "Elon Musk to unveil Tesla's 'Master Plan 3' at first investor day". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-03-27. {{cite news}}: |last= has generic name (help)
  19. ^ Tayeb, Zahra. "Elon Musk says 'the future is bright' for Tesla as he gets ready to charm disgruntled shareholders at its investor day". Markets Insider. Retrieved 2023-03-27.
  20. ^ "Analysis | Musk's Secret, Secret Master Plan for Tesla Is So Obvious". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2023-03-28.
  21. ^ Ewing, Jack (2023-03-01). "Tesla Offers a New 'Master Plan' but Few Big Revelations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-03-28.
  22. ^ Balu, Nivedita; Sriram, Akash; Sriram, Akash (2023-03-02). "Elon Musk's 'Master Plan' for Tesla fails to charge up investors". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-03-28.
  23. ^ Jin, Hyunjoo; White, Joseph; Sriram, Akash; White, Joseph; Sriram, Akash (2023-03-02). "Tesla vows to halve EV production costs, Musk keeps affordable car plan under wraps". Reuters. Retrieved 2023-03-28.
  24. ^ Kolodny, Lora. "Tesla stock down as investor day falls short on specifics". CNBC. Archived from the original on March 2, 2023. Retrieved March 3, 2023.
  25. ^ Musk 2023, p. 9.
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