User:RobLa/CA-21-2020-election

User:RobLa/CA-21-2020-election transcludes prose for the upcoming election that may be described at 2020 California's 21st congressional district election (as was 2018 California's 21st congressional district election). It is being held to choose the representative for the United States House of Representatives, California District 21. It is currently represented by T.J. Cox.

2020 Election

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transcluded from: 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 21
2020 California's 21st congressional district election
 
← 2018
2022 →
     
Candidate David Valadao TJ Cox
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 85,928 84,406
Percentage 50.5% 49.5%

U.S. Representative before election

TJ Cox
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

David Valadao
Republican

The 21st district covers San Joaquin Valley, including Coalinga, Delano, Hanford, and parts of Bakersfield, specifically East Bakersfield and Downtown Bakersfield. The incumbent was Democrat TJ Cox, who flipped the district and was elected in 2018 with 50.4% of the vote.[1]

Candidates

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Advanced to general

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Eliminated in primary

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Declined

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Endorsements

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David Valadao (R)

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[28] Tossup July 2, 2020
Inside Elections[29] Tossup October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Lean D November 2, 2020
Politico[31] Tossup April 19, 2020
Daily Kos[32] Tossup October 19, 2020
RCP[33] Tossup June 9, 2020
Niskanen[34] Likely D June 7, 2020

Polling

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General election

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
TJ
Cox (D)
David
Valadao (R)
Undecided
American Viewpoint (R)[35][A] September 8–10, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 38% 49% 9%
NRCC (R)[36] June 30 – July 2, 2019 400 (LV) 36% 52% 11%

Results

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2020 California's 21st congressional district primary results by county
Map legend
  •   Valadao—60–70%
  •   Valadao—50–60%
  •   Cox—40–50%
California's 21st congressional district, 2020[37][38]
Primary election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Valadao 39,488 49.7
Democratic TJ Cox (incumbent) 30,697 38.7
Democratic Ricardo De La Fuente 7,309 9.2
Republican Rocky De La Fuente 1,912 2.4
Total votes 79,406 100.0
General election
Republican David Valadao 85,928 50.5
Democratic TJ Cox (incumbent) 84,406 49.5
Total votes 170,334 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

District

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transluded from: California's 21st congressional district

California's 21st congressional district (or CA-21) is a congressional district in the U.S. state of California. It is located in the San Joaquin Valley and includes parts of Fresno County and Tulare County. Cities in the district include the majority of Fresno, the north side of Visalia, and all of Sanger, Selma, Kingsburg, Parlier, Reedley, Orange Cove, Dinuba, Orosi, Cutler, Farmersville, Woodlake and Exeter.[39] The district is currently represented by Democrat Jim Costa.

Demographics

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According to the APM Research Lab's Voter Profile Tools (featuring the U.S. Census Bureau's 2019 American Community Survey), the district contained about 377,000 potential voters (citizens, age 18+). Of these, 63% are Latino, while 26% are White. Immigrants make up 16% of the district's potential voters. Median income among households (with one or more potential voter) in the district is about $51,500, while 15% of households live below the poverty line. As for the educational attainment of potential voters in the district, 23% of those 25 and older have not earned a high school degree, while 12% hold a bachelor's or higher degree.

Election results from statewide races

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Year Office Results
2008 President Obama 51.5–45.7%
2010 Governor Brown 47.5–43.8%
Senator Fiorina 49.9–39.5%
Attorney General Cooley 48.9–37.2%
Treasurer Lockyer 49.7–38.7%
Controller Chiang 50.1–37.8%
2012 President Obama 54.6–43.5%
Senator Feinstein 55.6–44.4%
2014 Governor Brown 52.4–47.6%
2016 President Clinton 55.2–39.7%
Senator Sanchez 56.7–43.3%
2018 Governor Newsom 52.1–47.9%
Senator de Leon 57.0–43.0%
2020 President Biden 54.4–43.5%
2021 Recall[40]   Yes 51.4–48.6%
2022 Governor[41] Newsom 50.9 - 49.1%
Senator Padilla 53.5 - 46.5%

Composition

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# County Seat Population
19 Fresno Fresno 1,017,162
107 Tulare Visalia 479,468

Cities and CDPs with 10,000 or more people

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2,500 – 10,000 people

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List of members representing the district

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Representative Party Dates Cong
ress(es)
Electoral history Counties
District created January 3, 1943
 
Harry R. Sheppard
(Yucaipa)
Democratic January 3, 1943 –
January 3, 1953
78th
79th
80th
81st
82nd
Redistricted from the 19th district and re-elected in 1942.
Re-elected in 1944.
Re-elected in 1946.
Re-elected in 1948.
Re-elected in 1950.
Redistricted to the 27th district.
1943–1953
Northern Los Angeles, San Bernardino
 
Edgar W. Hiestand
(Burbank)
Republican January 3, 1953 –
January 3, 1963
83rd
84th
85th
86th
87th
Elected in 1952.
Re-elected in 1954.
Re-elected in 1956.
Re-elected in 1958.
Re-elected in 1960.
Redistricted to the 27th district and lost re-election.
1953–1983
Los Angeles
 
Augustus Hawkins
(Los Angeles)
Democratic January 3, 1963 –
January 3, 1975
88th
89th
90th
91st
92nd
93rd
Elected in 1962.
Re-elected in 1964.
Re-elected in 1966.
Re-elected in 1968.
Re-elected in 1970.
Re-elected in 1972.
Redistricted to the 29th district.
 
James C. Corman
(Los Angeles)
Democratic January 3, 1975 –
January 3, 1981
94th
95th
96th
Redistricted from the 22nd district and re-elected in 1974.
Re-elected in 1976.
Re-elected in 1978.
Lost re-election.
 
Bobbi Fiedler
(Los Angeles)
Republican January 3, 1981 –
January 3, 1987
97th
98th
99th
Elected in 1980.
Re-elected in 1982.
Re-elected in 1984.
Retired to run for U.S. Senator.
1983–1993
Los Angeles (western San Fernando Valley), southeastern Ventura
 
Elton Gallegly
(Simi Valley)
Republican January 3, 1987 –
January 3, 1993
100th
101st
102nd
Elected in 1986.
Re-elected in 1988.
Re-elected in 1990.
Redistricted to the 23rd district.
 
Bill Thomas
(Bakersfield)
Republican January 3, 1993 –
January 3, 2003
103rd
104th
105th
106th
107th
Redistricted from the 20th district and re-elected in 1992.
Re-elected in 1994.
Re-elected in 1996.
Re-elected in 1998.
Re-elected in 2000.
Redistricted to the 22nd district.
1993–2003
Kern, eastern Tulare
 
Devin Nunes
(Tulare)
Republican January 3, 2003 –
January 3, 2013
108th
109th
110th
111th
112th
Elected in 2002.
Re-elected in 2004.
Re-elected in 2006.
Re-elected in 2008.
Re-elected in 2010.
Redistricted to the 22nd district.
2003–2013
 
Eastern Fresno, Tulare
 
David Valadao
(Hanford)
Republican January 3, 2013 –
January 3, 2019
113th
114th
115th
Elected in 2012.
Re-elected in 2014.
Re-elected in 2016.
Lost re-election.
2013–2023
 
Kings, parts of Fresno, Kern and Tulare.
 
TJ Cox
(Selma)
Democratic January 3, 2019 –
January 3, 2021
116th Elected in 2018.
Lost re-election.
 
David Valadao
(Hanford)
Republican January 3, 2021–
January 3, 2023
117th Elected in 2020.
Redistricted to the 22nd district.
 
Jim Costa
(Fresno)
Democratic January 3, 2023 –
present
118th Redistricted from the 16th district and re-elected in 2022.
Re-elected in 2024.
2023–present
 
central San Joaquin Valley between Fresno and Visalia

Election results

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1942

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1942 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Harry R. Sheppard (Incumbent) 38,419 96.6
Republican Arthur E. Isham (write-in) 1,350 3.4
Total votes 39,769 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1944

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1944 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[43]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Harry R. Sheppard (Incumbent) 48,539 58.5
Republican Earl S. Webb 34,409 41.5
Total votes 82,948 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1946

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1946 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Harry R. Sheppard (Incumbent) 37,229 52.7
Republican Lowell E. Lathrop 33,395 47.3
Total votes 70,624 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1948

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1948 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Harry R. Sheppard (Incumbent) 61,383 55.2
Republican Lowell E. Lathrop 47,411 42.6
Progressive Howard J. Louks 2,422 2.2
Total votes 111,216 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1950

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1950 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Harry R. Sheppard (Incumbent) 62,994 57.4
Republican R. E. Reynolds 46,693 42.6
Total votes 109,687 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1952

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1952 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[47]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Edgar W. Hiestand 112,100 53.6
Democratic Everett G. Burkhalter 97,007 46.4
Total votes 209,107 100.0
Turnout  
Republican win (new seat)

1954

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1954 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Edgar W. Hiestand (Incumbent) 100,258 58.7
Democratic William E. "Bill" Roskam 70,486 41.3
Total votes 170,744 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1956

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1956 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[49]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Edgar W. Hiestand (Incumbent) 153,679 62.6
Democratic W. C. "Bill" Stethem 91,683 37.4
Total votes 245,362 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1958

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1958 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[50]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Edgar W. Hiestand (Incumbent) 127,238 51.9
Democratic Mrs. Rudd Brown 118,141 48.1
Total votes 245,379 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1960

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1960 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Edgar W. Hiestand (Incumbent) 179,376 58.4
Democratic Mrs. Rudd Brown 127,591 41.6
Total votes 306,967 100.0
Turnout
Republican hold

1962

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1962 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[52]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Augustus F. Hawkins 73,465 84.6
Republican Herman Smith 13,371 15.2
Total votes 86,836 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic win (new seat)

1964

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1964 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[53]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Augustus F. Hawkins (Incumbent) 106,231 90.3
Republican Rayfield Lundy 11,374 9.7
Total votes 117,605 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1966

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1966 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[54]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Augustus F. Hawkins (Incumbent) 74,216 84.8
Republican Rayfield Lundy 13,294 15.2
Total votes 87,510 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1968

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1968 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Augustus F. Hawkins (Incumbent) 87,205 91.6
Republican Rayfield Lundy 7,995 8.4
Total votes 95,200 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1970

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1970 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Augustus F. Hawkins (Incumbent) 75,127 94.5
Republican Southy M. Johnson 4,349 5.5
Total votes 79,476 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1972

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1972 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Augustus F. Hawkins (Incumbent) 92,799 82.9
Republican Rayfield Lundy 19,187 17.1
Total votes 111,986 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1974

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1974 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[58]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic James C. Corman (Incumbent) 86,778 73.5
Republican Mel Nadell 31,365 26.5
Total votes 118,143 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1976

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1976 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[59]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic James C. Corman (Incumbent) 101,837 66.5
Republican Erwin Ed Hogan 44,094 28.8
Peace and Freedom Bill Hill 7,178 4.7
Total votes 153,109 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1978

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1978 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[60]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic James C. Corman (Incumbent) 73,869 59.5
Republican Rod Walsh 44,519 35.9
Peace and Freedom Bill Hill 5,750 4.6
Total votes 124,138 100.0
Turnout  
Democratic hold

1980

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1980 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[61]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bobbi Fiedler 74,674 48.7
Democratic James C. Corman (Incumbent) 73,898 48.2
Libertarian George J. Lehmann 2,790 1.8
Peace and Freedom Jan B. Tucker 2,038 1.3
Total votes 153,400 100.0
Turnout  
Republican gain from Democratic

1982

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1982 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bobbi Fiedler (Incumbent) 138,474 71.8
Democratic George Henry Margolis 46,412 24.1
Libertarian Daniel Wiener 7,881 4.1
Total votes 192,767 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1984

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1984 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[63]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bobbi Fiedler (Incumbent) 173,504 72.3
Democratic Charles "Charlie" Davis 62,085 25.9
Libertarian Robert Townsend Leet 4,379 1.8
Total votes 239,968 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1986

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1986 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[64]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Elton Gallegly 132,090 68.4
Democratic Gilbert R. Saldana 54,497 28.2
Libertarian Daniel Wiener 6,504 3.4
Total votes 193,091 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1988

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1988 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[65]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Elton Gallegly (Incumbent) 181,413 69.1
Democratic Donald E. Stevens 75,739 28.8
Libertarian Robert Jay 5,519 2.1
Total votes 262,671 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1990

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1990 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[66]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Elton Gallegly (Incumbent) 118,326 58.4
Democratic Richard D. Freiman 68,921 34.0
Libertarian Peggy L. Christensen 15,364 7.6
Total votes 202,611 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1992

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1992 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Thomas (Incumbent) 127,758 65.2
Democratic Deborah A. Vollmer 68,058 34.7
Libertarian Mike Hodges (write-in) 149 0.1
Total votes 195,965 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1994

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1994 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Thomas (Incumbent) 116,874 68.10
Democratic John L. Evans 47,517 27.69
Libertarian Mike Hodges 6,899 4.02
No party Vollmer (write-in) 339 0.20
Total votes 171,629 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1996

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1996 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[69]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Thomas (Incumbent) 125,916 65.9
Democratic Deborah Vollmer 50,694 26.5
Reform John Evans 8,113 4.3
Natural Law Jane Bialosky 3,380 1.8
Libertarian Mike Hodges 3,049 1.5
Republican Karen Gentry (write-in) 172 0.0
Total votes 191,324 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

1998

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1998 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[70]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Thomas (Incumbent) 115,989 78.91
Democratic John Evans 30,994 21.09
Total votes 146,983 100.0
Turnout
Republican hold

2000

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2000 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[71]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Thomas (Incumbent) 142,539 71.6
Democratic Pedro "Pete" Martinez 49,318 24.8
Libertarian James R.S. Manion 7,243 3.6
Total votes 199,100 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

2002

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2002 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[72]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Devin Nunes 87,544 70.5
Democratic David G. LaPere 32,584 26.3
Libertarian Jonathan Richter 4,070 3.2
Total votes 124,198 100.0
Turnout
Republican win (new seat)

2004

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2004 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[73]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Devin Nunes (Incumbent) 140,721 73.2
Democratic Fred B. Davis 51,594 26.8
Total votes 192,315 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

2006

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2006 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Devin Nunes (Incumbent) 95,214 66.8
Democratic Steven Haze 42,718 29.9
Green John Roger Miller 4,729 3.3
Total votes 142,661 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

2008

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2008 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[75][76][77]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Devin Nunes (Incumbent) 143,498 68.4
Democratic Larry Johnson 66,317 31.6
Total votes 209,815 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

2010

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2010 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[78]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Devin Nunes (Incumbent) 135,979 100.0
Total votes 135,979 100.0
Turnout  
Republican hold

2012

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2012 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[79]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Valadao 67,164 57.8
Democratic John Hernandez 49,119 42.2
Total votes 116,283 100.0
Republican win (new seat)

2014

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2014 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[80]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Valadao (Incumbent) 45,907 57.8
Democratic Amanda Renteria 33,470 42.2
Total votes 79,377 100.0
Republican hold

2016

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2016 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[81]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Valadao (Incumbent) 75,126 56.7
Democratic Emilio Huerta 57,282 43.3
Total votes 132,408 100.0
Republican hold

2018

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2018 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district[82]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic TJ Cox 57,239 50.4
Republican David Valadao (Incumbent) 56,377 49.6
Total votes 113,616 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican

2020

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2020 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Valadao 85,928 50.45
Democratic TJ Cox (Incumbent) 84,406 49.55
Total votes 170,334 100.0
Republican gain from Democratic

2022

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2022 United States House of Representatives elections in California, 21st district
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jim Costa (Incumbent) 68,074 54.2
Republican Michael Maher 57,573 45.8
Total votes 125,647 100.0
Democratic hold

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference HPVT was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ Irby, Kate (October 25, 2019). "Why this California Democrat is having trouble raising money in his own district". Fresno Bee. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  3. ^ Bowman, Bridget (August 28, 2019). "Former GOP Rep. Valadao launches comeback bid in California". Roll Call. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  4. ^ a b Tavlian, Alex (December 12, 2019). "How a multi-millionaire father-son duo crashed the Cox-Valadao rematch". San Joaquin Valley Sun. Retrieved December 23, 2019.
  5. ^ "The fields are set: here's who is running in the March Primary". The San Joaquin Valley Sun. December 8, 2019. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
  6. ^ Cite error: The named reference ObamaFirstWave was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. ^ "2019 Pre-Primary Endorsements – California Labor Federation". California Labor Federation.
  8. ^ Cite error: The named reference SEIU was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  9. ^ "Endorsements – UFW". United Farm Workers.
  10. ^ Cite error: The named reference 314 Action was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  11. ^ Cite error: The named reference AAA was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  12. ^ Cite error: The named reference CTA was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  13. ^ Cite error: The named reference Reformers was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ Cite error: The named reference Equality was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  15. ^ "Giffords Rolls Out Endorsement of California Congressional Candidates Dedicated to Progress on Gun Safety". Giffords. February 20, 2020.
  16. ^ Cite error: The named reference HRC was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  17. ^ Cite error: The named reference HSLF was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  18. ^ "Candidates". Indivisible.
  19. ^ Cite error: The named reference JStreet was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  20. ^ Cite error: The named reference LCV 39 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  21. ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses TJ Cox for Re-election to Congress". NARAL Pro-Choice America. 30 May 2019.
  22. ^ "NewDem Vanguard". NewDem Action Fund.
  23. ^ Cite error: The named reference PP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  24. ^ Cite error: The named reference SierraClub was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  25. ^ "Current Endorsements". Stonewall Democratic Club.
  26. ^ Cite error: The named reference Fresno GOP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  27. ^ "Hanford dairyman David Valadao wants to return to Congress. Voters should let him".
  28. ^ Cite error: The named reference CookPolitical was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  29. ^ Cite error: The named reference InsideElections was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  30. ^ Cite error: The named reference Sabato was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  31. ^ Cite error: The named reference Politico was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  32. ^ Cite error: The named reference DailyKos was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  33. ^ Cite error: The named reference RCP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  34. ^ Cite error: The named reference Niskanen was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  35. ^ American Viewpoint (R)
  36. ^ NRCC (R)
  37. ^ Cite error: The named reference SoSPrimary was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  38. ^ Cite error: The named reference CAgenr was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  39. ^ "CA 2022 Congressional". Dave's Redistricting. 2022-01-04. Retrieved 2022-11-11.
  40. ^ "Counties by Congressional District for Recall Question" (PDF). sos.ca.gov. September 14, 2021. Retrieved May 2, 2022.
  41. ^ "Counties by Congressional Districts for Governor" (PDF). sos.ca.gov. November 8, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2023.
  42. ^ 1942 election results
  43. ^ 1944 election results
  44. ^ 1946 election results
  45. ^ 1948 election results
  46. ^ 1950 election results
  47. ^ 1952 election results
  48. ^ 1954 election results
  49. ^ 1956 election results
  50. ^ 1958 election results
  51. ^ 1960 election results
  52. ^ 1962 election results
  53. ^ 1964 election results
  54. ^ 1966 election results
  55. ^ 1968 election results
  56. ^ 1970 election results
  57. ^ 1972 election results
  58. ^ 1974 election results
  59. ^ 1976 election results
  60. ^ 1978 election results
  61. ^ 1980 election results
  62. ^ 1982 election results
  63. ^ 1984 election results
  64. ^ 1986 election results
  65. ^ 1988 election results
  66. ^ 1990 election results
  67. ^ 1992 election results
  68. ^ 1994 election results
  69. ^ 1996 election results
  70. ^ 1998 election results
  71. ^ 2000 election results
  72. ^ 2002 general election results Archived February 3, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  73. ^ 2004 general election results Archived 2008-08-21 at the Wayback Machine
  74. ^ 2006 general election results Archived November 27, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  75. ^ California - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times
  76. ^ Barone, Michael; Cohen, Richard E. (2009). Koszczuk, Jackie (ed.). The Almanac of American Politics (2010 ed.). Washington, D.C.: National Journal Group. p. 195. ISBN 978-0-89234-120-7.
  77. ^ Statement of Vote November 4, 2008, General Election Archived October 18, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  78. ^ 2010 general election results[permanent dead link]
  79. ^ 2012 general election results Archived October 19, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  80. ^ U.S. House of Representatives District 21 - Districtwide Results Archived 2014-12-14 at the Wayback Machine
  81. ^ U.S. House of Representatives District 21 - Districtwide Results Archived 2014-11-18 at the Wayback Machine
  82. ^ U.S. House of Representatives District 21 - Districtwide Results Archived 2018-12-02 at the Wayback Machine
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36°30′N 119°00′W / 36.5°N 119°W / 36.5; -119








2018 Results

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transcluded from: 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 21
district: California's 21st congressional district
2018 California's 21st congressional district election
 
← 2016
2020 →
     
Nominee TJ Cox David Valadao
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 57,239 56,377
Percentage 50.4% 49.6%

 
County results
Cox:
  Cox—50–60%
Valadao:
  Valadao—50–60%
  Valadao—60–70%

U.S. Representative before election

David Valadao
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

TJ Cox
Democratic

The 21st district is based in the Central Valley and includes Hanford and parts of Bakersfield. Incumbent Republican David Valadao, who had represented the 21st district since 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 56.7% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of D+5.

Primary election

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Republican candidates

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Advanced to general
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Democratic candidates

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California's 21st district was included on the list of Republican-held seats being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[1]

Advanced to general
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Withdrawn
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  • Emilio Huerta, civil rights attorney and general election candidate for this seat in 2016

Cox was running in the 10th district race before switching to run in the 21st district in March 2017.[3] Democrat Emilio Huerta, who ran for the seat in 2016 and was planning to run again, dropped out shortly before Cox entered the race.[4]

Results

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Results by county:
  Valadao—70–80%
  Valadao—60–70%
  Valadao—50–60%
Nonpartisan blanket primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican David Valadao (incumbent) 34,290 62.8
Democratic TJ Cox 20,293 37.2
Total votes 54,583 100.0

General election

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Endorsements

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David Valadao (R)

Organizations

TJ Cox (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Valadao (R)
TJ
Cox (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA[12] September 20–24, 2018 555 ± 5.4% 50% 39% 11%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Likely R November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[14] Likely R November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Lean R November 5, 2018
RCP[16] Likely R November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[17] Likely R November 5, 2018
538[18] Likely R November 7, 2018
CNN[19] Likely R October 31, 2018
Politico[20] Lean R November 4, 2018

Debate

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2018 California's 21st congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
David Valadao TJ Cox
1 , 2018 KSEE-TV
KGET-TV
Evan Onstot
Jim Scott
[21] P P

Results

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On election night, Valadao held an 8-point lead, the Associated Press and other news networks called the race for Valadao, and Cox conceded. However, mail-in and absentee ballots, which constituted about sixty percent of all ballots cast in the race, started arriving in the days and weeks following election day and swung heavily toward Cox. On November 26, Cox took the lead, retaining it until all ballots had been counted; Valadao conceded the race on December 6.

California's 21st congressional district election, 2018[22]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic TJ Cox 57,239 50.4
Republican David Valadao (incumbent) 56,377 49.6
Majority 862 0.8
Total votes 113,616 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican


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  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference dccc.org was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ Johnson, Jessica (March 4, 2018). "Fresno engineer T.J. Cox to face Rep. David Valadao, sources say". The Fresno Bee. Retrieved March 4, 2018.
  3. ^ Tolan, Casey (March 8, 2018). "Candidates wanted: Can Dems conquer Central Valley congressional seat?". The Mercury News. Retrieved November 23, 2018.
  4. ^ Appleton, Rory (March 2, 2018). "Emilio Huerta drops out of congressional race against David Valadao". The Fresno Bee. Retrieved November 23, 2018.
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference Primary Election was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ Cite error: The named reference Patriot was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. ^ Cite error: The named reference auto was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  8. ^ "Endorsements". TJ Cox for Congress.
  9. ^ Lieu, Ted [@tedlieu] (March 22, 2018). ".@TJCoxCongress is the Dem candidate running in #CA21, a district that Hillary Clinton won. He is terrific & I have endorsed him. Today we in the @dccc announced his placement on the red to blue program" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  10. ^ Tran, Connie (September 12, 2018). "Gavin Newsom visits Fresno to Endorse Democrats TJ Cox and Melissa Hurtado". YourCentralValley.com. Retrieved September 30, 2018.
  11. ^ Cite error: The named reference RtB was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  12. ^ SurveyUSA
  13. ^ Cite error: The named reference Cook was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ Cite error: The named reference IE was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  15. ^ Cite error: The named reference Sab was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  16. ^ Cite error: The named reference RCP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  17. ^ Cite error: The named reference Kos was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  18. ^ Cite error: The named reference F538 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  19. ^ Cite error: The named reference CNN was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  20. ^ Cite error: The named reference RatingsAndPredictions was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  21. ^ YouTube
  22. ^ Cite error: The named reference General Election was invoked but never defined (see the help page).