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User:Sm8900/syria diplomacy

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Fourth northwestern Syria offensive; Operation Spring Shield; continued refugee crisis (December 2019–March 2020)

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See also: Northwestern Syria offensive (December 2019–March 2020) and Operation Spring Shield


Russia and Syria escalated their attacks against rebel forces in and around the Idlib province by the end of 2019 despite the unilateral ceasefire from August and announced sanctions by the United States.[1][2] Air raids by the government forces targeted the Ma'arrat al-Nu'man District which resulted in more than 20 killed.[3][4] In the same week, a bill passed the US senate including new sanctions on Syria, Iran and Russia for their alleged war crimes during the Syrian civil war.[5][6]

On 19 December 2019, Syrian Army forces and allies launched a ground offensive in the northwestern Syria countryside. The main objective was to capture the M5 road which connects Damascus to Aleppo.[7] In late December 2019, Erdogan stated that Syrian bombing of Idlib had caused new waves of refugees to enter Turkey. Erdogan stated that Turkey could not handle this new influx, and that this influx would be "felt by all European countries".[8][9][10]


At the NATO summit in London in December 2019, President Emmanuel Macron of France highlighted major differences with Turkey over the definition of terrorism, and said there was little chance this aspect of the conflict could be resolved positively.[11] Macron criticized Turkey strongly for fighting against groups who had been allied with France and the West in fighting terrorism.[12]

Numerous issues in resolving the conflict emerged at the NATO summit in London. Turkey proposed a safe zone where Syrian refugees could be relocated, but this idea did not receive support from all parties.[12] Prior to the NATO Summit, there was a meeting at 10 Downing Street of the leaders of France, the UK, Germany and Turkey. One key point that emerged that the Western countries insisted that refugees could only be relocated voluntarily.[13][14] Meanwhile, there were concerns in NATO about Turkey's growing closeness with Russia.[15]

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The Syrian Armed Forces' official statement on the capture of Ma'arrat al-Nu'man in February 2020

After a brief ceasefire, the Syrian Army started to advance towards the city of Ma'arrat al-Nu'man in January 2020. Following rapid advances, government forces reached the city from the eastern, northen and southern outskirts, nearly encircling it. The Syrian Army captured Ma'arrat al-Nu'man on 28 January 2020. It was the first time the Syrian government had control over the city since the battle of 2012.[16][17]

Turkish President Erdogan on 19 February 2020, declared his intentions of changing the border between Syria and Turkey into a secure place for people from both countries, as Turkey prepared to commence an operation to prevent the Syrian army's attack on opposition-held Idlib province.[18]

In February 2020, the Syrian Army started pushing north towards the city of Saraqib. Meanwhile the offensive displaced over half a million people in northwestern Syria.[19] On 5 February 2020, government forces fully encircled Saraqib, including four Turkish observation posts. After a two day siege, the Syrian Army entered the city and seized it on the same day.[20]

The Army advanced further to the north along the M5 towards Aleppo city. The road was fully under government control on 14 February 2020. In the meantime, Turkey started to send military convoys into Idlib to reinforce their observation points.[21] The Syrian Army's next objective was to secure the western outskirts of Aleppo. Following a major breakthrough on the southern axis, government forces managed to cut off several rebel supply lines. In fear of getting encircled by the Syrian Army, the rebels decided to retreat westwards, leaving the government in control over western Aleppo, including the cities of Haritan and Anadan on 16 February 2020.[22]

On 20 February 2020, the rebels launched a counteroffensive towards Saraqib with Turkish artillery support.[23] At the same time, the Syrian Army shifted their ground advances to the Jabal al-Zawiya and al-Ghab plain regions. According to SOHR, government forces managed to capture 33 towns and villages in 60 hours by 26 February 2020 .[24] The following day, the rebels backed by Turkey had fully recaptured Saraqib from government forces, thus cutting the Damascus-Aleppo M5 highway and lifting the siege of the four encircled Turkish observation points.[25]

The offensive in northwestern Syria witnessed a major escalation on 27 February 2020 as a result of pro-government airstrikes which targeted a Turkish mechanized infantry battalion near a post in the town of Balyun. The strikes resulted in the death of at least 34 Turkish soldiers.[26][27][28] In response to the Balyun airstrikes, Turkish National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced the launch of Operation Spring Shield. The purpose of the operation was in retaliation for the government attack on Turkish soldiers and to halt the Syrian Army advances towards Idlib.[29] The United States and NATO expressed support for Turkey's operation.[30] Turkish Armed Forces and their allies managed to recapture the strategic Zawiya Mountain together with 18 villages, while the Syrian Army captured Saraqib for the second time in a month.[31][32]


Diplomatic processes

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In December 2019, it was reported that the Russian and Turkish armies had made a deal whereby electricity would be supplied to Tal Abyad by Russia's allies, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who now support Assad; while water would be supplied by the Alouk water station that is controlled by Turkish forces.[33] This deal was mainly facilitated by Russian military officials.[34][35][36]

It was also reported in December 2019 that the M4 road to Aleppo would reopen soon, based on an agreement mediated by Russia with Turkey, Turkey's allies in Syria, and the SDF.[35][37][38]

Meanwhile, various efforts were proceeding to rebuild infrastructure in Syria in December 2019. Russia said it would spend $500 million to modernize Syria's port of Tartus. Russia also said it would build a railway to link Syria with the Persian Gulf.[39][40] Russia would also contribute to recovery efforts by the UN.[41] Syria awarded oil exploration contracts to two Russian firms.[42]

Syria announced it was in serious dialogue with China to join China's Belt and Road Initiative designed to foster investment in infrastructure in over one-hundred developing nations worldwide.[43][44]

Erdogan claimed that a four-way summit on Syria was scheduled to occur in Turkey in February 2020 and will include Turkey, Germany, the UK, and France.[45]

At a meeting in Damascus, Russian and Syrian officials clearly stated their support for Syria regaining control over all of its territory.[46][47][48] The United Arab Emirates also expressed official support for Assad.[49]

A new round of meetings for the Astana summit process took place in the Kazakh capital Nur Sultan. The meeting includes Russia, Syria, Turkey and Iran.[50] At this meeting Russia, stated that the "safe zone" established by Turkey should not be expanded, as this would not accomplish anything positive for the region.[51]

The Astana process was created by Turkey, Iran and Russia in order to find a lasting solution to the conflict. they have examined a process to reform the constitution of Syria via the newly formed Syrian Constitutional Committee.[52] The parties reported that they reached some important understandings at this meeting, including affirming a commitment to work together to respect Syrian territorial integrity.[53] The United States has boycotted this process.<ref name="Newsweek>

References

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  1. ^ Sirwan Kajjo. "Russian, Syrian Regime Forces Step Up Attacks on Rebel Stronghold Idlib". Voice of America. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  2. ^ Tom O'Connor (17 December 2019). "Syria Prepares for Massive Offensive as U.S. Votes for New Sanctions on Assad, Russia and Iran". Newsweek. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  3. ^ "More than 20 killed in air raids on towns in Syria's Idlib". Al-Jazeera. 2019-12-18. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  4. ^ "Syria war: Air strikes and shelling kill 24 civilians in Idlib". BBC News. 2019-12-18. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  5. ^ "Pentagon budget would hit Syria, Iran, Russia with tough sanctions". Fox News. 2019-12-17. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  6. ^ Deborah Amos (17 December 2019). "Congress Authorizes Sanctions On Syria, Iran And Russia". NPR. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  7. ^ "Breaking: Syrian Army kicks off 2nd phase of Idlib offensive". Al-Masdar News. 2019-12-19. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  8. ^ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50886120 Syria war: Turkey can't handle new 'refugee wave', says Erdogan. 23 December 2019
  9. ^ https://www.dw.com/en/europe-will-feel-new-refugee-wave-warns-turkeys-erdogan/a-51776809 Europe 'will feel' new refugee wave, warns Turkey's Erdogan. The Turkish president has described a new humanitarian crisis as thousands of Syrians flee renewed bombing in Idlib. But he warned that Turkey "will not carry such a migrant burden on its own."
  10. ^ https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/23/middleeast/turkey-erdogan-idlib-syria-intl-hnk/index.html Turkey can't handle a fresh wave of Syrian migrants, Erdogan warns By Helena DeMoura, Jonny Hallam and Ben Westcott, CNN Updated 2:04 AM ET, Mon 23 December 2019.
  11. ^ Macron says 'no consensus' with Turkey over definition of terrorism, 4 December 2019, France24.
  12. ^ a b Macron spars with US and Turkey over Nato, By NIKOLAJ NIELSEN BRUSSELS, 4. DEC, euobserver.com.
  13. ^ Erdogan: Quartet meeting was ‘good’, 3 December 2019, middleeastmonitor.com/.
  14. ^ Exclusive details of Erdoğan's meeting with Johnson, Merkel and Macron, by Yahya Bostan, dailysabah.com
  15. ^ Erdogan in NATO: Russia’s ‘Trojan horse’?, by Cengiz Candar 9 December 2019.
  16. ^ Bethan McKernan (2020-01-28). "Assad regime captures town in Syria's last rebel-held territory". The Guardian. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  17. ^ "Syria war: Army 'recaptures' key town from opposition in Idlib". BBC News. 2020-01-29. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  18. ^ "Turkish operation in Idlib 'only a matter of time'". BBC News. 19 February 2020.
  19. ^ Bethan McKernan (2020-02-05). "500,000 flee Syrian regime's deadly offensive in Idlib". The Guardian. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  20. ^ "Syria war: Government troops seize part of key Idlib town Saraqeb". BBC News. 2020-02-07. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  21. ^ "Syrian Government Captures Last Stretch of Highway Between Damascus and Aleppo". Voice of America. 2020-02-15. Retrieved 2021-08-29.
  22. ^ "Syrian forces seize most of Aleppo province, on eve of Turkey-Russia talks". NBC News. 2020-02-17. Retrieved 2021-08-29.
  23. ^ "Turkey launches 'limited' operation to retake Idlib towns". The New Arab. 20 February 2020. Retrieved 2021-08-29.
  24. ^ "Regime forces target Turkish military column in Jabal Al-Zawiyah destroying at least one vehicle". SOHR. 26 February 2020. Retrieved 2021-08-29.
  25. ^ Khaled al-Khateb (2020-02-27). "Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces claim gains in Idlib". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 2021-08-29.
  26. ^ Gurcan, Metin (28 February 2020). "Deciphering Turkey's darkest night in Syria". Al-Monitor. Retrieved 2021-08-30.
  27. ^ "At least 34 soldiers of the Turkish Forces were killed in airstrikes today". The Syrian Observatory For Human Rights. 2020-02-27.
  28. ^ "1 year ago Assad attack killed 34 Turkish troops in Syria's Idlib". Daily Sabah. 2021-02-27. Retrieved 2021-08-30.
  29. ^ "Turkey launches Operation Spring Shield". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 2021-08-30.
  30. ^ "Press point by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the North Atlantic Council meeting at Turkey's request for Article 4 consultations on the situation in Syria". nato.int. 28 February 2020.
  31. ^ "Opposition factions capture more areas in south Idlib as regime forces advance into Saraqeb". SOHR. 2020-03-02. Retrieved 2021-08-30.
  32. ^ "Syria army retakes Saraqib city in Idlib from opposition". Middle East Monitor. 2020-03-02.
  33. ^ Russia and Turkey armies strike deal to swap water for electricity, 9 December 2019, middleeastmonitor.com
  34. ^ Russians appear to broker deal with Turkey in electricity for water swap in Syria, Wladimir van Wilgenburg Wladimir van Wilgenburg |9 December-2019.
  35. ^ a b Major road connecting Aleppo to eastern Syria to reopen after Russian-Turkish agreement, 11 December 2019.
  36. ^ Turkish-Russian agreement to deliver electricity to Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ain through Tishreen Dam, Enab Baladi, 20 December 2019.
  37. ^ Russia and Turkey oversee withdrawal of military forces from "M4 road", Enab Baladi, 8 December 2019.
  38. ^ Turkish-Russian agreements redraws the map of eastern Euphrates, Enab Baladi, 4 December 2019.
  39. ^ Russia to modernize Syria port, build railway across Syria to Persian Gulf. Major commercial projects could potentially make it easier for Tehran to increase its influence in Israel’s northeastern neighbor.
  40. ^ Reuters UPDATE 1-Russia to invest $500 mln in Syrian port, build grain hub, Reuters.
  41. ^ https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/12/18/5-russian-syrian-projects-announced-this-week-a68655 5 Russian-Syrian Projects Announced This Week.
  42. ^ https://www.oilandgas360.com/syria-hands-oil-exploration-contracts-to-two-russian-firms/ Syria hands oil exploration contracts to two Russian firms in Closing Bell Story / Crude Oil News / Exploration and Production (E&P) / International by— Oil & Gas 360 17 December 2019.
  43. ^ The Daily Telegraph Syria in 'serious dialogue' with China about joining Belt and Road initiative, says Assad, Josie Ensor, beirut, 16 DECEMBER 2019.
  44. ^ Briefing, Silk Road (17 December 2019). "Syria Reaches Out To Join China's Belt & Road Initiative".
  45. ^ A four-way summit on Syria will be in Turkey, NewsTurkey 5 December 2019.
  46. ^ Putin’s Envoy Tells Assad Russia Supports ‘Recapturing All Syrian Territories’, Tuesday, 3 December 2019.
  47. ^ Intel: How Russia is changing course in Syria, Maxim A. Suchkov 3 December 2019.
  48. ^ Press release on Russian officials’ meeting with President of Syria Bashar al-Assad, 02-12-2019.
  49. ^ UAE OFFICIALLY BACKS SYRIA'S ASSAD TO WIN WAR, BY TOM O'CONNOR ON 12/3/19.
  50. ^ Astana round begins with a meeting between the meeting sponsors The 14th round of the Astana meetings began in the Kazakh capital Nur Sultan on Tuesday morning with a series of meetings of the meeting sponsors (Russia, Turkey and Iran). 10 Dec 2019, Tue - 14:07 2019-12-10T14:07:00 NEWS DESK
  51. ^ Astana talks: Expanding Syria ‘safe zone’ will ‘do nothing good’, says Russian envoy, 18 hours ago, Karwan Faidhi Dri, rudaw.net.
  52. ^ Regime continues to violate Sochi deal amid diplomatic efforts for political solution in Syria DAILY SABAH, ISTANBUL Published 10 December 2019.
  53. ^ 14th round led to significant results, MFA about the Astana process on Syria, 11 December 2019, inform.kz, kazinform news agency.
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