User:Squinn10/Climate migrant

The definition and introductory content on this page do not effectively convey the gravity of the issue. I would make it clearer and more engaging to serve as a hook for readers to continue reading about the subject. Furthermore, the subheadings are not in a logical flow and could have better titles. An improved organizational structure with well-defined subheadings can enhance the readability and accessibility of the information.

The section that needs to be expanded the most is statistics by region. It needs more statistics, especially for individual countries experiencing large migrations due to climate change. This data can become a valuable reference for those seeking specific information on regional and country-level impacts of climate-induced migration.

Additionally, the section climate gentrification is an excerpt from the Wikipedia page on climate gentrification. There is a broom over it signifying that it is currently written as a personal essay, so this section would need to be edited for neutrality.

Planned work:

Intro section: First, relocate the definitions section to the intro section, removing redundant content. Speak to the urgency  and importance of recognizing climate migrations as a growing issue in a neutral way. Mention topics that will be covered later in the page. Use more scholarly sources, instead of links from websites. Add its connection to climate change which will also serve as a transition into the next topic.

Causes of climate migration: Add this section. Most information will come from the climate change wiki page. But also focus specifically on why people have to move as a result of climate change. In 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that millions of people could be displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption. Additionally, increased temperatures increased the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture, resulting in heavier rainstorms. An increase in the intensity of floods in low-lying areas would change shorelines and be catastrophic around the world. I will also edit climate justice and gentrification sections that are already written.

Global Statistics:

Use statistics to support that  the world will have 150–200 million people displaced by climate change by 2050. For example, many people will be displaced by sea level rise, since the global sea level is rising approximately one-tenth of an inch each year. With changing shorelines people will be forced to move either within their country or to another.  Additionally, I will create subsections of statistics by region with both historical displacement rates and predicted ones. Currently the article has Asia and the Pacific, North America, Central America and the Caribbean, South America, and Europe. I will add a section for Africa and the Middle East because both regions struggle with drought and intensifying temperature causing migration. Much work needs to be added to the existing sections so they are more uniform and well-written.

Planning for migration: This section does not cover exactly what planning for climate migration entails. Moving as a result of climate change is extremely restricted today. There is no established method of dealing with it. The main institution dealing with refugees is the United Nations, acting through the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees. I would investigate and write about any other precedents that have been set in dealings with climate migrants. Developed nations that have large intakes of climate refugees should develop standards for the categorization and processing of migrants. Although, it is difficult to address the relationship between environmental degradation and forced migrations.

Political and legal perspectives: This section may become a subtopic of planning for migration depending on how much cross-over there is. Because there is no institutionalized way of dealing with climate refugees, policies need to be developed within nations. A new convention was proposed that would have both political and fiscal power to approach the climate refugee problem. I would also fuse the Global perceptions from possible countries of asylum and Perspective of countries taking immigrants sub sections together.  

Society and culture: Currently, this section only has a few examples of movies and books that are related to climate migrants. Climate migrants evolve and change the cultures they find immigrate to, making significant cultural contributions. I would add more of the contributions such as movies, bookies, art pieces and discuss their underlying messages.  

My sources are in my bibliography found here: User:Squinn10/Climate migrant/Bibliography

Lede

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Climate migration is a form of movement prompted by extreme climate-related events. It encompasses relocations due to sudden or gradual climate-exacerbated disasters such as "abnormally heavy rainfalls, prolonged droughts, desertification, environmental degradation, or sea-level rise and cyclones".[1] Gradual shifts in the environment tend to impact more people than sudden disasters. Between 1979 and 2008, storms impacted 718 million individuals, whereas droughts affected approximately 1.6 billion.[2] The majority of climate migrants move internally within their own countries, though a smaller number of climate-displaced people also move across national borders.[3]

Climate change gives rise to migration on a large, global scale. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that an average of 20 million people are forcibly displaced to other areas in countries all over the world by weather-related events every year.[4] Climate-related disasters disproportionately affect marginalized populations, who are often facing other structural challenges in climate-vulnerable regions and countries.[4] As a result, climate-related disasters are often described as a threat multiplier that compounds crises over time and space. The 2021 White House Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration underscored the multifaceted impacts of climate change and climate-related migration, ranging from destabilizing vulnerable and marginalized communities, exacerbating resource scarcity, to igniting political tension.[5]

Few existing international frameworks and regional and domestic legal regimes provide adequate protection to climate migrants.[4] However, as the UN Dispatch noted, "people who have been uprooted because of climate change exist all over the world — even if the international community has been slow to recognize them as such."[6] As a result, climate migration has been described as “the world’s silent crisis,” contrasting its global pervasiveness with its lack of recognition and investigation.[7] Estimates on climate-related displacement vary, but all point to an alarming trend. The most common projections estimate around 200 million people will be displaced by climate-related disasters by 2050.[7][8] Some even estimate up to 1 billion migrants by 2050, but these take ecological threats, including conflict and civil unrest as well as disasters into account.[9][10]

  1. ^ Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for. "Climate change and disaster displacement". UNHCR. Retrieved 2023-01-09.
  2. ^ Laczko, Frank; Aghazarm, Christine (2009). Migration, Environment, and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence. International Organization for Migration. p. 17. ISBN 978-92-9068-454-1.
  3. ^ "2021 Global Report on Internal Displacement". www.internal-displacement.org. Retrieved 2023-01-09.
  4. ^ a b c "IRAP Advocacy Memo on Climate Displacement" (PDF). International Refugee Assistance Project. November 2022.
  5. ^ "The White House Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration" (PDF).
  6. ^ Curtis, Kimberly (2017-04-24). ""Climate Refugees," Explained". UN Dispatch. Retrieved 2020-01-20.
  7. ^ a b "Climate refugees: The world's silent crisis". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 2023-01-09.
  8. ^ World Bank. "Climate Change Could Force 216 Million People to Migrate Within Their Own Countries by 2050". WorldBank.org. World Bank. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
  9. ^ Institute for Economics & Peace. "Over one billion people at threat of being displaced by 2050 due to environmental change, conflict and civil unrest" (PDF). Economics and Peace. Institute for Economics & Peace. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
  10. ^ Brown, Oli (2008). Migration and Climate Change. International Organization for Migration. p. 12.

Causes

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Climate migrants refer to those who engage in movement driven by the impact of sudden or gradual climate change, such as "abnormally heavy rainfalls, prolonged droughts, desertification, environmental degradation, or sea-level rise and cyclones".[1] The intensification of natural disasters caused by climate change, has the potential to impact many populations, leading to a significant number of climate migrants. Over the past 50 years, the frequency of disasters has increased by a factor of 5. [2] In addition to more frequent and severe disasters, global warming-induced rising temperatures will lead to more prevalent droughts and snow and ice melting, resulting in higher sea levels.[3][4]

Gradual shifts in the environment tend to impact more people than sudden disasters. Between 1979 and 2008, storms impacted 718 million individuals, whereas droughts affected approximately 1.6 billion.[5] Sudden climatic events like severe storms and natural disasters may destroy critical infrastructure, flood neighborhoods, disrupt transit systems, overburden medical centers, cause food and water shortages, destabilize energy plants, and jeopardize human health and well-being.[6] These events can severely harm communities, making recovery a challenging process. Gradual impacts, such as famines, droughts, and other resource shortages and economic damages brought about by climate change may cause conflict, political instability, climate gentrification, and accumulated negative health effects due to exposure to unhealthy environments.[7][8][9] Droughts and slowly rising temperatures, have more mixed effects, but are more likely to lead to longer-term changes.[10]

Rising sea levels represent a frequently addressed concern in environmental discussions. Sea levels are estimated to rise between 3 to 6 feet by 2100.[11] This means that, progressively, land areas will become submerged. To put it in perspective, on average each year, the seal level has risen 3.7 mm.[11] These data reveal significant threats to coastal cities and ecosystems, potentially displacing many humans.

  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference :4 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ World Meteorological Organization (August 31, 2021). "Weather-related disasters increase over past 50 years, causing more damage but fewer deaths".
  3. ^ Dai, Aiguo. “Drought Under Global Warming: a Review.” Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Climate change 2, no. 1 (2011): 45–65.
  4. ^ Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, et al. “Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations That 2 °c Global Warming Could Be Dangerous.” Atmospheric chemistry and physics 16, no. 6 (2016): 3761–3812.
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference :0 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ "The Impact of Natural Disasters". Sciencing. Retrieved 24 November 2021.
  7. ^ Werz, Michael; Conley, Laura (January 3, 2012). "Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict". Center for American Progress. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  8. ^ "Sixth Assessment Report — IPCC". Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  9. ^ Nations, United. "Economic Recovery after Natural Disasters". United Nations. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  10. ^ Cissé, G., R. McLeman, H. Adams, P. Aldunce, K. Bowen, D. Campbell-Lendrum, S. Clayton, K.L. Ebi, J. Hess, C. Huang, Q. Liu, G. McGregor, J. Semenza, and M.C. Tirado, 2022: Health, Wellbeing, and the Changing Structure of Communities. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1041–1170, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.009.
  11. ^ a b IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.

Climate justice and adaptation

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Climate adaptation projects in preparation for climate hazards and as a response to climate change may increase the climate resilience of communities.[1] However, this projects may inadvertently contribute to climate gentrification—a process where actions to address climate risks lead to the displacement of lower-socioeconomic groups by wealthier communities. Inner coastal cities and areas at higher elevations, traditionally occupied by less affluent populations, are now becoming more desirable due to increasing risks like sea level rise and extreme weather events affecting lower-lying wealthy waterfront properties.[2]

By bolstering resilience, such projects may reduce the degree of migration people may undertake due to climate-related challenges. Varying levels of investment are made in supporting the adaptation, resilience, and mobility of neighborhoods, municipalities, and nations in the face of climate change and consequent environmental migration.[3] This is especially important to consider since small island states, rural populations, people of color, low-income communities, the elderly, people with disabilities, coastal urban populations, food and housing insecure households, and developing countries are especially vulnerable to the worst effects of the climate crisis and therefore to environmental migration.[4][5][6][7] Just as individuals and countries do not contribute equally to climate change, they also do not experience the negative effects of the crisis equally.[4] Both short- and long-term impacts of climate change bring under-prepared communities environmental harm and exacerbate existing inequities.[8] People with livelihoods tied to the environment, like those in agriculture, fisheries, and coast-dependent businesses, are also at risk of relocation or job loss due to climate change.[4] If communities cannot adapt adequately, migration might emerge as the primary response.

Climate migrants may migrate internally within their own country or to another country in response to climate change. Most climate migration is internal, meaning movement occurs within an individuals own country, and they do not cross international borders. [9] In 2022 alone, weather-related events led to nearly 32 million internal displacements.[10] In poor countries where individuals are more vulnerable to disasters due to inadequate climate adaptation, individuals will also often lack resources for long-distance migration.[11]

In some cases, climate change constrains migration and people may lose the means to migrate, leading to a net decrease in migration.[12] Most of the time, the migration that does take place is seen as voluntary and economically motivated. In some cases climate change could also exacerbate economic insecurity or political instability as causes for migration beyond temperatures and extreme weather events.[13][14][15] Who moves and who stays when affected by climate change often falls along lines of race and class, as mobility requires some amount of wealth.[16]

  1. ^ Rajkovich, Nicholas B., and Seth H. Holmes, eds. Climate Adaptation and Resilience Across Scales : from Buildings to Cities / Edited by Nicholas B. Rajkovich and Seth H. Holmes. New York, NY: Taylor & Francis, 2022.
  2. ^ Wang, Haiyun; Wang, Siqin; Liu, Yan (2022), Brears, Robert C. (ed.), "Climate Gentrification: An Emerging Phenomenon in Coastal Cities in the Era of Climate Change", The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Urban and Regional Futures, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 253–268, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-87745-3_228, ISBN 978-3-030-87744-6, retrieved 2023-11-12
  3. ^ Smit, Barry, and Olga Pilifosova. "Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity." Sustainable Development 8, no. 9 (2003): 9.
  4. ^ a b c "5 facts on climate migrants - Institute for Environment and Human Security". ehs.unu.edu. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  5. ^ Cite error: The named reference :8 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  6. ^ Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for. "Disability, Displacement and Climate Change". UNHCR. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  7. ^ Lustgarten, Abrahm (2020-09-15). "How Climate Migration Will Reshape America". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  8. ^ Smith, Neil. "There's No Such Thing as a Natural Disaster". Items. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  9. ^ Ionesco, Dina (2019). "Let's Talk About Climate Migrants, Not Climate Refugees". International Organization for Migration. Retrieved October 18, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  10. ^ Internal Displacement Monitoring Center. 2023. Grid 2023:Global Report on Internal Displacement. https://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2023/
  11. ^ Zickgraf C. and N. Perrin. 2016. Immobile and Trapped Populations. The Atlas of Environmental Migration
  12. ^ Cattaneo, Cristina; Beine, Michel; Fröhlich, Christiane J.; Kniveton, Dominic; Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada; Mastrorillo, Marina; Millock, Katrin; Piguet, Etienne; Schraven, Benjamin (2019). "Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy. 13 (2): 189–206. doi:10.1093/reep/rez008. hdl:10.1093/reep/rez008. ISSN 1750-6816. S2CID 198660593.
  13. ^ Xu, Chi; Kohler, Timothy A.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Scheffer, Marten (26 May 2020). "Future of the human climate niche – Supplementary Materials". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (21): 11350–11355. Bibcode:2020PNAS..11711350X. doi:10.1073/pnas.1910114117. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 7260949. PMID 32366654.
  14. ^ Lilleør, Helene Bie; Van den Broeck, Katleen (1 December 2011). "Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCs". Global Environmental Change. 21: S70–S81. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.002. ISSN 0959-3780.
  15. ^ "How does climate change affect migration?". Stanford Earth. 2 June 2021.
  16. ^ Kohut, Abrahm Lustgarten,Meridith. "Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration". ProPublica. Retrieved 2021-11-24.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

Global statistics

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An activist holding a sign "Climate change = more climate refugees" at the Melbourne Global climate strike on Sep 20, 2019.

In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared that the greatest single consequence of climate change could be migration, 'with millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and severe drought'.[1]

The most common projection is that the world will have 150–200 million people displaced by climate change by 2050. Variations of this claim have been made in influential reports on climate change by the IPCC [2] and the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change,[3] as well as by NGOs such as Friends of the Earth,[4] Greenpeace Germany (Jakobeit and Methmann 2007)[5] and Christian Aid;[6] and inter-governmental organisations such as the Council of Europe,[7] UNESCO,[8] and UNHCR.[9] There has even been an estimate as high as 1.2 billion attributing climate migration to ecological threats, including conflict and civil unrest.[10] This acknowledges that such ecological challenges might instigate conflicts, such as regions disputing over water access.[11] Other reports with more conservative estimates focus solely on the direct effects of climate.

Francois Gemenne has stated that: 'When it comes to predictions, figures are usually based on the number of people living in regions at risk, and not on the number of people actually expected to migrate. Estimates do not account for adaptation strategies [or] different levels of vulnerability'.[12] However, Hein de Haas has argued that to link the climate change issue "with the specter of mass migration is a dangerous practice based on myth rather than fact. The use of apocalyptic migration forecasts to support the case for urgent action on climate change is not only intellectually dishonest, but also puts the credibility of those using this argument - as well as the broader case for climate change action - seriously at risk".[13] He argued that while "climate change is unlikely to cause mass migration" this also overlooks the fact that the implications of environmental adversity are most severe for the most vulnerable populations who lack the means to move out.[13]

While climate-related migration is often framed as a remote issue, extreme weather events are already forcing people out of their homes in many parts of the world. In 2021, storms, floods, landslides, wildfires and droughts triggered 23.7 million internal displacements (i.e. displacement within a country), according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. This makes up for 60% of all internal displacements that year.[14]

In 2018, the BBC reported that "UN figures indicate that 80% of people displaced by climate change are women".[15]

  1. ^ Warner K and Laczko F. (2008). ‘Migration, Environment and Development: New Directions for Research’, in Chamie J, Dall’Oglio L (eds.), International Migration and Development, Continuing the Dialogue: Legal and Policy Perspectives, IOM, page 235
  2. ^ Cite error: The named reference :2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ Stern, N. (Ed.) (2006). The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  4. ^ Friends of the Earth, 'A Citizen's Guide to Climate Refugees, Fact Sheet Four: Predictions of Climate Refugees to 2050' (FOTE: London), 2007: 10
  5. ^ Jakobeit, C., and Methmann, C. (2007). Klimafluchtlinge – Die Verleugnete Katastrophe, Greenpeace, Hamburg
  6. ^ Christian Aid (2007). ‘Human Tide: The Real Migration Crisis’ (CA: London), page 6
  7. ^ Parliamentary Assembly Doc. 11084, 23 October 2006, The Problem of Environmental Refugees: 1
  8. ^ UNESCO (2007)
  9. ^ UNHCR (2002), ‘A critical time for the environment’, Refugees No.127. Geneva.
  10. ^ Cite error: The named reference :3 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  11. ^ Cite error: The named reference :52 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  12. ^ Gemenne, F (2009). 'Environmental Migration: Normative Frameworks and Policy Prescriptions', Doctoral Thesis, Sciences-Po, Paris
  13. ^ a b https://heindehaas.blogspot.com/2020/01/climate-refugees-fabrication-of.html Climate refugees: The fabrication of a migration threat
  14. ^ "2022 Global Report on Internal Displacement". www.internal-displacement.org. Retrieved 2022-08-22.
  15. ^ Halton, Mary (8 March 2018). "Climate change 'impacts women more than men'". BBC News. Retrieved 8 March 2021.

Statistics by region

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Climate-induced migration is a highly complex issue which needs to be understood as part of global migration dynamics. Migration typically has multiple causes, and environmental factors are intertwined with other social and economic factors, which themselves can be influenced by environmental changes. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) recognized that climate change and environmental harm frequently “interact with other drivers of displacement” that fit into the established refugee definition.[1]

Additionally, it is maintained that the poor populate areas that are most at risk for environmental destruction and climate change, including coastlines, flood-lines, and steep slopes. As a result, climate change threatens areas already suffering from extreme poverty. "The issue of equity is crucial. Climate affects us all, but does not affect us all equally," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told delegates at a climate conference in Indonesia.[2]

Africa

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Africa has 80% of the world's refugee population and this number is only set to increase with climate change.[3] Africa is one of the world regions where environmental displacement is critical largely due to droughts and other climate-related eventualities.[4] The United Nations Environment Programme noted that "No continent will be struck as severely by the impacts of climate change as Africa."[5] Most of the countries in Africa were ranked most vulnerable to climate change and least likely to adapt to its impacts.[6] Existing conflicts, poverty, and displacement in Africa may draw attention away from climate migrants, but it is important to understand that these interrelated challenges often exacerbate the difficulties of those forced to move due to environmental factors.

Drought has become a pressing issue with climate change, and with at least one-third of the population in Africa living in drought prone areas, many of these people are vulnerable.[7] Thus, drought conditions are expected to change the lives of nearly 100 million Africans by 2050.[8] As drought intensifies, it exacerbates desertification, further diminishing the amount of habitatble land.[9] Land degradation caused by desertification will have an impact of agricultural productivity, decreasing food security.[10] The connection between desertification and food insecurity is evident in the Sahel region, where between 14.4 and 23.7 million people faced hunger in 2020 and 2021.[11]

Aside from droughts, other parts of Africa experience intensified storms and flooding due to monsoon seasons. In Sudan in 2014 flooding from a storm displaced 159,000 individuals.[12] In Somali, seasonal rains caused flash flooding in 2023 which displaced nearly a 250,000.[13]

The exacerbation of conflict and displacement in the Lake Chad basin, has been attributed to droughts, floods, and the lake's contraction due to climate change. The dwindling of natural resources is intensifying regional tensions and has led to the displacement of 3 million individuals.[14]

Middle East

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The Middle East is combatting a severe refugee crisis and climate change is set to be influential in creating even more refugees.[15] The leading country in the refugee crisis is Syria, largely due to social conflict. Since 2011, over 14 million Syrians have been displaced.[16] The drought between 2007 and 2010 played a role in exacerbating the Syrian conflict. This period experienced the most severe drought on record, leading to significant agricultural setbacks and prompting numerous farming households to relocate to cities. [17] The drought acted as a catalyst, leading to the Syrian civil war.[18] Such environmental stresses have underscored the idea that many Syrians can be viewed as climate migrants, given that climatic factors indirectly fueled the onset of the Syrian civil war.

Another cause of environmental distress in the Middle East is extreme heat. With its hot desert climate, the Middle east is predicted to reach summertime temperatures as high as 46°C by 2050.[19] These soaring temperatures have already occurred, although rarely, and have labeled parts of the Middle East as unlivable for humans.[20] Such extreme conditions are expected to increase the number of climate migrants, as people search for cooler and more habitable regions.

Asia and the Pacific

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Bangladesh climate refugee

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, more than 42 million people were displaced in Asia and the Pacific triggered by sudden onset natural hazards during 2010 and 2011, more than twice the population of Sri Lanka. This figure includes those displaced by storms, floods, and heat and cold waves. Still others were displaced by drought and sea-level rise. Most of those compelled to leave their homes eventually returned when conditions improved, but an undetermined number became migrants, usually within their country, but also across national borders.[21]

A 2012 Asian Development Bank study argues that climate-induced migration should be addressed as part of a country's development agenda, given the major implications of migration on economic and social development. The report recommends interventions both to address the situation of those who have migrated, as well as those who remain in areas subject to environmental risk. It says: "To reduce migration compelled by worsening environmental conditions, and to strengthen the resilience of at-risk communities, governments should adopt policies and commit financing to social protection, livelihoods development, basic urban infrastructure development, and disaster risk management."[22]

 
The Sundarbans a few months after Cyclone Sidr in 2007

Due to rising sea levels, as many as 70,000 people will be displaced in the Sundarbans as early as 2020 according to an estimate by the Center for Oceanographic Studies at Jadavpur University.[23] One expert calls for restoring the Sundarbans’ original mangrove habitats to both mitigate the impacts of rising seas and storm surges, and to serve as a carbon sink for greenhouse gas emissions.[24][25][26]

650 families of Satbhaya in Kendrapara district of Odisha, India who have been displaced by sea level rise and coastal erosion have been a part of the state government of Odisha's pioneering approach to planned relocation at Bagapatia under Gupti Panchayat.[27] While this approach makes provision for homestead land and other amenities, provisioning for livelihoods like agriculture and fishing which are the mainstay for the relocated populations is needed.[28]

In Minqin County, Gansu Province, "10,000 people have left the area and have become shengtai yimin, 'ecological migrants'".[29] In Xihaigu, Ningxia, water shortages driven by climate change and deforestation have resulted in several waves of government-mandated relocations since 1983.[30]

In 2013 a claim of a Kiribati man, Ioane Teitiota, of being a "climate change refugee" under the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees (1951) was determined by the New Zealand High Court to be untenable.[31][32][33] The Refugee Convention did not apply as there is no persecution or serious harm related to any of the five stipulated convention grounds. The Court rejected the argument that the international community itself (or countries which can be said to have been historically high emitters of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases) were the "persecutor" for the purposes of the Refugee Convention.[32] This analysis of the need for the person to identify persecution of the type described in the Refugee Convention does not exclude the possibility that a people for countries experiencing severe impacts of climate change can come with the Refugee Convention. However, it is not the climate change event itself, rather the social and political response to climate change, which is likely to create the pathway for a successful claim. The New Zealand Immigration and Protection Tribunal and the High Court, "there is a complex inter-relationship between natural disasters, environmental degradation and human vulnerability. Sometimes a tenable pathway to international protection under the Refugee Convention can result. Environmental issues sometimes lead to armed conflict. There may be ensuing violence towards or direct repression of an entire section of a population. Humanitarian relief can become politicised, particularly in situations where some group inside a disadvantaged country is the target of direct discrimination".[34] The New Zealand Court of Appeal also rejected the claim in a 2014 decision. On further appeal, the New Zealand Supreme Court confirmed the earlier adverse rulings against the application for refugee status, with the Supreme Court also rejecting the proposition "that environmental degradation resulting from climate change or other natural disasters could never create a pathway into the Refugee Convention or protected person jurisdiction".[35] Teitiota appealed to the UN. In January 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee "ruled against Teitiota on the basis that his life was not at imminent risk," but also said that it was a human rights violation to force refugees to return "to countries where climate change poses an immediate threat."[36]

In 2014 attention was drawn to an appeal to the New Zealand Immigration and Protection Tribunal against the deportation of a Tuvaluan family on the basis that they were "climate change refugees", who would suffer hardship resulting from the environmental degradation of Tuvalu.[37] However the subsequent grant of residence permits to the family was made on grounds unrelated to the refugee claim.[38] The family was successful in their appeal because, under the relevant immigration legislation, there were "exceptional circumstances of a humanitarian nature" that justified the grant of resident permits as the family was integrated into New Zealand society with a sizeable extended family which had effectively relocated to New Zealand.[38]

South America

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South America Continental Divide

Research on South American migration patterns have found multiple connections between climate change and its effect on migration. The effects and results vary based on the type of climatic change, socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics of migrants and the distance and direction of the migration.[39] Since most climate migration studies are done in the developed world, scientists have called for more quantitative research within the developing world, including South America.[40] Migration in South America does not always increase as a result of increased environmental threats but is affected by factors such as climate variability and land suitability. These migrations happen either gradually or suddenly but are typically directed from rural to urban areas. Inter-provincial migration is shown to not be as heavily influenced by environmental changes whereas migration outside of the country of origin is heavily influenced by environmental changes.[40] The results of a climactic event catalyzing migration change depending on the onset of the event, however, climate change related events such as drought and hurricanes augment or increase youth migration. Youth are more likely to migrate as a response to climate-related events. As a result, children who have been displaced are found to travel shorter distances to find work in rural destinations versus further to an urban area.[41] The increase in interest in this topic in the past decade has called for a measure called preventive resettlement. The cases in which preventive resettlement appear appropriate is typically discerned by local and governmental bodies.[42]

Active sea-level rise resulted in the relocation of the people of Enseada da Baleia, a coastal community located on Cardoso Island in southeastern Brazil. The government offered the residents the ability to either relocate to another community on the island or a city on the mainland. Most residents chose to move to a new location that was more inland on the same island and paid for their own expenses of relocation with little government assistance. Brazilian lawyer Erika Pires Ramos argues that the dilemma faced by the residents of Enseada da Baleia illustrates how climate migrants are invisible throughout much of Latin America. Governments must first recognize and identify groups of climate migrants in order to better help them.[43]

The International Organization for Migration estimates that today nearly 11 million South Americans are currently resettling or migrating due to recent and ongoing natural disasters, some of which are climate-induced. Collecting and maintaining data on climate migrants remains a major obstacle for South American governments in preparing and anticipating for migration flows from future climate-induced disasters. Peru passed a national climate change law in 2018 that mandates the government, led by a multi-agency group, to create a plan to mitigate and adapt to future climate migrations. Uruguay already has its own “national resettlement plan” for climate-induced migrations in place.[44]

A few countries like Argentina and Brazil, offer a “disaster-related emergency visa”. In Argentina, the visa came into effect in 2022 includes relocation, housing and integration support provided by civil society.[45]

Some Kuna people, such as those in the settlement of Gardi Sugdub, have decided to relocate from islands to the mainland of Panama due to sea level rise.[46]

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  18. ^ Kelley, Colin P., Shahrzad Mohtadi, Mark A. Cane, Richard Seager, and Yochanan Kushnir. “Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 112, no. 11 (2015): 3241–3246.
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  20. ^ Vohra, Anchal. 2021. "The Middle East Is Becoming Literally Uninhabitable." Foreign Policy. Published August 24, 2021.
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Few existing international frameworks and regional and domestic legal regimes provide adequate protection to climate migrants.[1] Typically, climate migrants are not legally recognized as refugees and therefore do not enjoy international and domestic refugee law protections.[2] In the Americas, instead of being granted refugee status, individuals displaced by environmental factors are offered humanitarian visas or complementary protection, which do not always provide permanent residence and citizenship pathways.[1] Although the term 'refugee' is legally incorrect, the definition of climate change refugee has be created to address the crisis. Every individuals affected by environmental harm still deserves protection and aid on humanitarian grounds. [3]

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) expects the scale of global migration to rise as a result of accelerated climate change.[4] It, therefore, recommends policymakers around the world to take a proactive stance on the matter.[5] Despite the scale of climate migration, current legal protections across the world are ineffective in protecting climate migrants. A report from the International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP) therefore recommends the creation of new legal pathways to safety for people moving in the context of climate change and environmental degradation. IRAP’s report also recommends that governments develop stronger humanitarian protection for people who are forcibly displaced in a changing climate. The report emphasizes that strengthening the legal protections for climate-displaced persons should be preemptive with increased options for these persons before environmental disasters occur.[2]

The International Law Commission (ILC) provides guidance on the legal protections that climate-displaced persons should enjoy when disasters strikes. ILC’s Draft Articles on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters advocates for mass displacement to be included in the definition of “disaster”. The United Nations Human Rights Committee (UNHRC) recently decided cases wherein the Committee asserted that “the ICCPR obligates states not to return people fleeing life-threatening climate change impacts.” In one of these cases, Teitota v. New Zealand, the UNHRC held that “individuals and groups who have crossed national borders could file subsequent petitions against deportation to the UNHRC, after exhausting domestic options, based on climate change impacts that violate the right to life.”[6] In January 2020, the UN Human Rights Committee ruled that "climate refugees fleeing the effects of the climate crisis cannot be forced by their adoptive countries to return to their home counties whose climate is posing an immediate threat." [7]

The Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) argued that people who will be forced to move due to climate change currently have no adequate recognition in international law.[8] The EJF contends that a new multilateral legal instrument is required to specifically address the needs of "climate refugees" in order to confer protection to those fleeing environmental degradation and climate change.[9] They have also asserted that additional funding is needed to enable developing countries to adapt to climate change. Sujatha Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan have argued for the use of the term 'climate exiles' and for international agreements to provide them political and legal rights, including citizenship in other countries, bearing in mind those countries' responsibilities and capabilities.[10][11][12][13]

Planning for climate migrants

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A schematic showing the regions where more natural disasters will occur due to climate change.

Planning for climate migration, entails preparing for the desertion of geographically vulnerable areas as well as for the influx of vulnerable communities into largely urban areas.[14][15] In addressing current issues of environmental migration and preparing for forthcoming ones, experts call for interdisciplinary, locally-informed, equitable, and accessible approaches.[15][16] Cities can explore what being “migrant friendly” might look like, such as offering job training programs, affordable and livable housing, access to green spaces, accessible mass transit systems, and resources to overcome language or cultural barriers.[15] Special investment in both resources and information dissemination can help accommodate the diverse needs of people with disabilities and mental health conditions – both in the immediate moment of a disaster, where some emergency response and early warning systems may not be audiologically or visually accessible, and in the aftermath.[17] Investments in flood barriers and other infrastructure for adaptation can provide physical protections against severe weather. Incorporating these considerations into planning conversations now can assist cities in preparing for the worst effects of climate change before some of the scenarios for climate migration come to occur.[14]

Sustainable development, emergency response mechanisms, and local planning can help mitigate the consequences of climate migration. Mitigation may be too late for many, leaving planned migration as the only option.[18] For people whose livelihoods are closely linked to the stability and health of their environment – like farmers and fishers – migration may become necessary for survival.A recent New York Times and Pulitzer Center article on the issue notes that “by comparison, Americans are richer, often much richer, and more insulated from the shocks of climate change. They are distanced from the food and water sources they depend on, and they are part of a culture that sees every problem as capable of being solved by money...Census data show us how Americans move: toward heat, toward coastlines, toward drought, regardless of evidence of increasing storms and flooding and other disasters...The sense that money and technology can overcome nature has emboldened Americans."[14] This disparity is reflected in the coastal real estate market and development projects. Addressing climate migration issues and climate change as a whole may involve reimagining how, where, and why municipalities develop and urbanize for the future.

In an article written for The Guardian, Gaia Vince outlined what the future of climate migration would look like and how countries can prepare. She cites research from the United Nations estimating that in the next 30 years, over 1 billion climate and environmental migrants will be uprooted from their homes, largely from countries in the Global South. Developed nations in North America and Europe, with aging and declining populations, will benefit from accepting and assimilating these climate migrants into their societies, she argues. Climate migration can be a solution to many of the world’s problems, rather than just a problem, according to Vince. Currently, there is no global body or organization devoted exclusively to the issue of climate migration, however, Vince argues that new climate-friendly policies are still possible.[19] Vince points to the rapid European response to enact open-border policies and right-to-work laws for Ukrainian refugees fleeing the 2022 war as an example. The policies arguably saved millions of lives and enabled the migrants to avoid the convoluted and slow-acting bureaucratic hurdles that exist for migrants from other countries. Vince argues that the Ukrainian migrant policy provides a blueprint for how developed countries can adopt policies and contingency plans for climate migrants in the future.

  1. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :4 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :11 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ Tyler Giannini & Bonnie Docherty, Confronting a Rising Tide: A Proposal For A Convention On Climate Change Refugees, 33 Harv. Envtl. L. Rev. 349 (2009).
  4. ^ International Organization for Migration's Perspective on Migration and Climate Change Archived 8 August 2009 at the Library of Congress Web Archives
  5. ^ International Organization for Migration: Key Principles for Policy Making on Migration, Climate Change & the Environmental Degradation Archived 10 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ Francis, Ama (2021). "Global Southerners in the North". Columbia Law School Scholarship Archive.
  7. ^ Picheta, Rob (January 20, 2020). "Climate refugees cannot be sent back home, United Nations rules in landmark decision". CNN. Retrieved October 19, 2023.
  8. ^ "No place like home – climate refugees" Archived 7 November 2009 at the Wayback Machine, The Environmental Justice Foundation, 2009
  9. ^ Vidal, John (3 November 2009). "Global warming could create 150 million climate refugees by 2050". The Guardian.
  10. ^ Byravan, Sujatha; Rajan, Sudhir Chella (9 May 2005). "Before the Flood". The New York Times. Retrieved 11 May 2022.
  11. ^ "Warming Up to Immigrants: An Option for the US in Climate Policy". Economic and Political Weekly: 7–8. 2015-06-05.
  12. ^ Byravan, Sujatha; Rajan, Sudhir Chella (Fall 2010). "The Ethical Implications of Sea-Level Rise Due to Climate Change". Ethics & International Affairs. 24 (3): 239–260. doi:10.1111/j.1747-7093.2010.00266.x. S2CID 145462401. Archived from the original on 13 August 2011.
  13. ^ Byravan, Sujatha (2022). "Cross-border migration on a warming planet: A policy framework". WIREs Climate Change. 13 (2). doi:10.1002/wcc.763. S2CID 247698985.
  14. ^ a b c Lustgarten, Abrahm (2020-09-15). "How Climate Migration Will Reshape America". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  15. ^ a b c "Will climate-friendly cities be friendly to climate migrants?". Fix. 2021-06-25. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  16. ^ Nations, United. "Economic Recovery after Natural Disasters". United Nations. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  17. ^ Refugees, United Nations High Commissioner for. "Disability, Displacement and Climate Change". UNHCR. Retrieved 2021-11-24.
  18. ^ Merone, Lea, and Peter Tait. 2018. “‘Climate Refugees’: Is It Time to Legally Acknowledge Those Displaced by Climate Disruption?” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 42 (6): 508–9. https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12849.
  19. ^ "The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval". the Guardian. 2022-08-18. Retrieved 2023-01-19.