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2012 United States presidential election in Virginia

(Redirected from Virginia Democratic primary, 2012)

Main article: 2012 United States presidential election

The 2012 United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Virginia voters chose 13 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

2012 United States presidential election in Virginia
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout66.9% Decrease (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 13 0
Popular vote 1,971,820 1,822,522
Percentage 51.16% 47.28%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Virginia was won by Obama with 51.16% of the vote to Romney's 47.28%, a 3.88% margin of victory.[2] Third parties and write-ins received a cumulative 60,147 votes, representing 1.56% of the vote. In 2008, Obama won the state by 6.30%, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to win it since Lyndon B. Johnson's nationwide Democratic landslide of 1964, but it had otherwise been a reliably Republican state prior to this. However, 2008 represented a realignment election for Virginia.[3]

Much of the Democratic gains were attributed to the growth of progressive suburban Northern Virginia, particularly in Fairfax County, Loudoun County, and Prince William County, all of which voted for Obama twice despite becoming Republican strongholds after 1964. The Northern Virginia suburbs are generally dominated by Washington, D.C., the most Democratic region in the country, and increasing minority populations have turned Virginia from a Republican stronghold to a Democratic one. Obama's increased strength in this heavily populated region more than canceled out his weakness across rural Virginia, which, similar to the rest of Appalachia, swung towards the Republican Party in 2008 due to the Democrats' increasingly environmentalist policies. Obama suffered a historically poor showing even in traditionally Democratic counties of Southwest Virginia, similar to his weak performance in neighboring West Virginia. This would ultimately foreshadow 2016, when the Republican nominee won the election without carrying Virginia for the first time since 1924.

Obama's 2012 win made him the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to carry Virginia in two consecutive elections, and this was the first election since 1948 that the state voted Democratic in consecutive elections. The Democratic margin of victory also made 2012 the first time since 1948 that Virginia voted more Democratic than the nation as a whole, albeit by a narrow advantage of 0.02%: These were ultimately signs of Virginia's continuing leftward shift, after it had been a mostly reliable state for Republicans on the presidential level since 1952. This was the first election since 1976 in which Virginia did not vote in the same way as neighboring North Carolina, and the first election ever in which Virginia voted Democratic while North Carolina voted Republican. Virginia was the only state that backed Obama twice that didn't back Bill Clinton in either of his runs for president in 1992 and 1996.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this was the last time the Republican nominee won Montgomery County, and the last time the Democratic nominee won the independent city of Covington along with Buckingham, Caroline, Essex, Nelson and Westmoreland Counties.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Because incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama faced no serious opposition from within his party in seeking reelection, no Democratic primary was held.

Republican primary

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Virginia Republican primary, 2012
 
← 2008 March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06) 2016 →
     
Candidate Mitt Romney Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Delegate count 43 3
Popular vote 158,119 107,451
Percentage 59.54% 40.46%
 
Virginia results by county and independent city
  Mitt Romney
  Ron Paul

The Republican primary took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012.[4][5]

Virginia had 49 delegates to the 2012 Republican National Convention including the unbound superdelegates. 33 delegates were awarded on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. The other 13 were awarded to the candidate who won a majority statewide, or allocated proportionally if no one got a majority.[6]

Virginia Republican primary, March 6, 2012[7][8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates[8][9]
Mitt Romney 158,119 59.54% 43
Ron Paul 107,451 40.46% 3
Uncommitted delegates: 3
Total: 265,570 100.00% 49

Ballot access

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Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul appeared on the ballot. Other candidates failed to submit the necessary 10,000 signatures (including at least 400 from each of the state's 11 congressional districts) required to get on the ballot by the deadline of 22 December 2011.[10]

On 27 December, Rick Perry filed a lawsuit – joined later by Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum – in the federal District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia in Richmond that challenged provisions that determine who can appear on the primary ballot. Perry and the other candidates argued that the chairman of the Virginia Republican Party and members of State Board of Elections violated their rights by enforcing state requirements as to the number of signatures, the qualifications for signers and the requirement that all petition circulators be "an eligible or registered qualified voter in Virginia." Perry and the other litigants argued that these restrictions "impose a severe burden" on their freedoms of speech and association under the First and Fourteenth Amendment.[11][12][13]

The case was Perry v. Judd. U.S. District Judge John A. Gibney Jr. ruled on 29 December that he would not issue an injunction to stop the printing of ballots before a scheduled hearing on 13 January.[14] The Virginia Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, representing the state, made a motion to dismiss the case because of a lack of standing.[15] On 13 January, Judge Gibney Jr. dismissed the lawsuit citing the equitable doctrine of laches ("sleeping on one's rights"), writing, "They knew the rules in Virginia many months ago... In essence, they played the game, lost, and then complained that the rules were unfair."[16] The United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit affirmed, emphasizing that the candidate plaintiffs' failure to file in a timely fashion required dismissal.[17]

The final results saw Romney win with 59.54% and 43 delegates of the vote to Ron Paul's 40.46% and 3 delegates.

General election

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Ballot access

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Polling

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Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election § Virginia

The initial polling in 2010 showed Obama leading with margins from 4 to 11 points. In September 2011, the tide changed, and Romney won every poll conducted from September 2011 to December 2011, except one. In January and February 2012, both candidates were neck and neck with neither having a decisive lead. In March, Obama was able to pull ahead and beat Romney in most polls until about late September 2012. On October 4, Romney won his first poll in a month, 48% to 45%. Throughout October, Romney won every poll but one for nearly three weeks. The latest polls in late October and early November shifted in Obama's favor, and Obama was able to successfully make the race near tied. Although Romney had won the final poll by 2 points, 50% to 48%, the average of the last three polls showed Obama leading 49% to 48%.[18][19]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Huffington Post[20] Lean D November 6, 2012
CNN[21] Tossup November 6, 2012
New York Times[22] Tossup November 6, 2012
Washington Post[23] Tossup November 6, 2012
RealClearPolitics[24] Tossup November 6, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2012
FiveThirtyEight[26] Likely D November 6, 2012

Results

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United States presidential election in Virginia, 2012[27]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama (incumbent) Joe Biden (incumbent) 1,971,820 51.16% 13
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 1,822,522 47.28% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Jim Gray 31,216 0.81% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 13,058 0.34% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 8,627 0.22% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 7,246 0.19% 0
Totals 3,854,489 100.00% 13

By county and city

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County/City Barack Obama
Democratic 		Mitt Romney
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Accomack 7,655 47.69% 8,213 51.17% 183 1.14% -558 -3.48% 16,051
Albemarle 29,757 55.20% 23,297 43.22% 853 1.58% 6,460 11.98% 53,907
Alexandria 52,199 71.11% 20,249 27.58% 963 1.31% 31,950 43.53% 73,411
Alleghany 3,403 47.44% 3,595 50.12% 175 2.44% -192 -2.68% 7,173
Amelia 2,490 36.01% 4,331 62.63% 94 1.36% -1,841 -26.62% 6,915
Amherst 5,900 39.41% 8,876 59.29% 194 1.30% -2,976 -19.88% 14,970
Appomattox 2,453 30.91% 5,340 67.30% 142 1.79% -2,887 -36.39% 7,935
Arlington 81,269 69.10% 34,474 29.31% 1,865 1.59% 46,795 39.79% 117,608
Augusta 9,451 28.07% 23,624 70.16% 597 1.77% -14,173 -42.09% 33,672
Bath 894 40.22% 1,274 57.31% 55 2.47% -380 -17.09% 2,223
Bedford 10,209 27.28% 26,679 71.29% 537 1.43% -16,470 -44.01% 37,425
Bland 735 24.93% 2,144 72.73% 69 2.34% -1,409 -47.80% 2,948
Botetourt 5,452 29.89% 12,479 68.41% 310 1.70% -7,027 -38.52% 18,241
Bristol 2,492 33.73% 4,780 64.71% 115 1.56% -2,288 -30.98% 7,387
Brunswick 4,994 62.14% 2,968 36.93% 75 0.93% 2,026 25.21% 8,037
Buchanan 3,094 32.08% 6,436 66.72% 116 1.20% -3,342 -34.64% 9,646
Buckingham 3,750 50.29% 3,569 47.86% 138 1.85% 181 2.43% 7,457
Buena Vista 919 36.38% 1,564 61.92% 43 1.70% -645 -25.54% 2,526
Campbell 7,595 29.56% 17,695 68.86% 406 1.58% -10,100 -39.30% 25,696
Caroline 7,276 53.30% 6,151 45.06% 225 1.64% 1,125 8.24% 13,652
Carroll 3,685 28.53% 8,736 67.63% 497 3.84% -5,051 -39.10% 12,918
Charles City 2,772 65.50% 1,396 32.99% 64 1.51% 1,376 32.51% 4,232
Charlotte 2,503 42.44% 3,311 56.14% 84 1.42% -808 -13.70% 5,898
Charlottesville 16,510 75.74% 4,844 22.22% 443 2.04% 11,666 53.52% 21,797
Chesapeake 55,052 49.85% 53,900 48.81% 1,473 1.34% 1,152 1.04% 110,425
Chesterfield 77,694 45.44% 90,934 53.18% 2,360 1.38% -13,240 -7.74% 170,988
Clarke 3,239 41.73% 4,296 55.35% 227 2.92% -1,057 -13.62% 7,762
Colonial Heights 2,544 29.50% 5,941 68.89% 139 1.61% -3,397 -39.39% 8,624
Covington 1,319 56.61% 975 41.85% 36 1.55% 344 14.76% 2,330
Craig 830 31.12% 1,757 65.88% 80 3.00% -927 -34.76% 2,667
Culpeper 8,285 40.99% 11,580 57.30% 346 1.71% -3,295 -16.31% 20,211
Cumberland 2,422 47.98% 2,538 50.28% 88 1.74% -116 -2.30% 5,048
Danville 12,218 60.47% 7,763 38.42% 223 1.11% 4,455 22.05% 20,204
Dickenson 2,473 35.82% 4,274 61.91% 157 2.27% -1,801 -26.09% 6,904
Dinwiddie 6,550 48.20% 6,875 50.59% 164 1.21% -325 -2.39% 13,589
Emporia 1,793 66.51% 886 32.86% 17 0.63% 907 33.65% 2,696
Essex 3,016 53.15% 2,602 45.85% 57 1.00% 414 7.30% 5,675
Fairfax 315,273 59.57% 206,773 39.07% 7,241 1.36% 108,500 20.50% 529,287
Fairfax City 6,651 57.19% 4,775 41.06% 203 1.75% 1,876 16.13% 11,629
Falls Church 5,015 68.93% 2,147 29.51% 114 1.56% 2,868 39.42% 7,276
Fauquier 13,965 39.28% 21,034 59.16% 556 1.56% -7,069 -19.88% 35,555
Floyd 2,732 35.74% 4,673 61.13% 239 3.13% -1,941 -25.39% 7,644
Fluvanna 5,893 46.22% 6,678 52.38% 178 1.40% -785 -6.16% 12,749
Franklin 9,090 34.04% 16,718 62.60% 899 3.36% -7,628 -28.56% 26,707
Franklin City 2,833 64.98% 1,496 34.31% 31 0.71% 1,337 30.67% 4,360
Frederick 12,690 34.87% 22,858 62.81% 846 2.32% -10,168 -27.94% 36,394
Fredericksburg 7,131 62.35% 4,060 35.50% 246 2.15% 3,071 26.85% 11,437
Galax 900 39.53% 1,332 58.50% 45 1.97% -432 -18.97% 2,277
Giles 2,730 36.12% 4,660 61.66% 168 2.22% -1,930 -25.54% 7,558
Gloucester 6,764 35.08% 12,137 62.94% 382 1.98% -5,373 -27.86% 19,283
Goochland 4,676 35.12% 8,448 63.45% 191 1.43% -3,772 -28.33% 13,315
Grayson 2,068 29.04% 4,801 67.42% 252 3.54% -2,733 -38.38% 7,121
Greene 3,290 36.46% 5,569 61.72% 164 1.82% -2,279 -25.26% 9,023
Greensville 3,135 63.64% 1,766 35.85% 25 0.51% 1,369 27.79% 4,926
Halifax 7,766 46.53% 8,694 52.08% 232 1.39% -928 -5.55% 16,692
Hampton 46,966 70.64% 18,640 28.03% 884 1.33% 28,326 42.61% 66,490
Hanover 18,294 30.98% 39,940 67.63% 824 1.39% -21,646 -36.65% 59,058
Harrisonburg 8,654 55.50% 6,565 42.10% 374 2.40% 2,089 13.40% 15,593
Henrico 89,594 55.22% 70,449 43.42% 2,198 1.36% 19,145 11.80% 162,241
Henry 10,317 41.33% 13,984 56.02% 662 2.65% -3,667 -14.69% 24,963
Highland 459 32.48% 924 65.39% 30 2.13% -465 -32.91% 1,413
Hopewell 5,179 57.35% 3,739 41.40% 113 1.25% 1,440 15.95% 9,031
Isle of Wight 8,761 42.07% 11,802 56.67% 264 1.26% -3,041 -14.60% 20,827
James City 17,879 43.35% 22,843 55.39% 518 1.26% -4,964 -12.04% 41,240
King and Queen 1,745 47.74% 1,865 51.03% 45 1.23% -120 -3.29% 3,655
King George 4,477 39.53% 6,604 58.31% 244 2.16% -2,127 -18.78% 11,325
King William 3,344 37.48% 5,466 61.26% 113 1.26% -2,122 -23.78% 8,923
Lancaster 3,149 45.24% 3,753 53.91% 59 0.85% -604 -8.67% 6,961
Lee 2,583 26.91% 6,847 71.34% 168 1.75% -4,264 -44.43% 9,598
Lexington 1,486 55.30% 1,146 42.65% 55 2.05% 340 12.65% 2,687
Loudoun 82,479 51.53% 75,292 47.04% 2,289 1.43% 7,187 4.49% 160,060
Louisa 6,953 42.26% 9,215 56.01% 284 1.73% -2,262 -13.75% 16,452
Lunenburg 2,684 46.81% 2,969 51.78% 81 1.41% -285 -4.97% 5,734
Lynchburg 15,948 43.76% 19,806 54.34% 694 1.90% -3,858 -10.58% 36,448
Madison 2,639 39.90% 3,869 58.50% 106 1.60% -1,230 -18.60% 6,614
Manassas 8,478 55.78% 6,463 42.52% 259 1.70% 2,015 13.26% 15,200
Manassas Park 2,879 61.83% 1,699 36.49% 78 1.68% 1,180 25.34% 4,656
Martinsville 3,855 61.35% 2,312 36.79% 117 1.86% 1,543 24.56% 6,284
Mathews 1,807 33.62% 3,488 64.91% 79 1.47% -1,681 -31.29% 5,374
Mecklenburg 6,921 45.90% 7,973 52.88% 183 1.22% -1,052 -6.98% 15,077
Middlesex 2,370 38.98% 3,619 59.52% 91 1.50% -1,249 -20.54% 6,080
Montgomery 19,903 48.53% 20,006 48.78% 1,100 2.69% -103 -0.25% 41,009
Nelson 4,171 50.56% 3,947 47.84% 132 1.60% 224 2.72% 8,250
New Kent 3,555 32.46% 7,246 66.16% 152 1.38% -3,691 -33.70% 10,953
Newport News 51,100 64.32% 27,230 34.28% 1,114 1.40% 23,870 30.04% 79,444
Norfolk 62,687 72.02% 23,147 26.59% 1,209 1.39% 39,540 45.43% 87,043
Northampton 3,741 57.63% 2,676 41.23% 74 1.14% 1,065 16.40% 6,491
Northumberland 3,191 42.22% 4,310 57.03% 57 0.75% -1,119 -14.81% 7,558
Norton 566 37.94% 895 59.99% 31 2.07% -329 -22.05% 1,492
Nottoway 3,344 48.85% 3,409 49.80% 93 1.35% -65 -0.95% 6,846
Orange 6,870 42.01% 9,244 56.52% 240 1.47% -2,374 -14.51% 16,354
Page 3,724 36.41% 6,344 62.03% 160 1.56% -2,620 -25.62% 10,228
Patrick 2,417 29.27% 5,622 68.07% 220 2.66% -3,205 -38.80% 8,259
Petersburg 14,283 89.79% 1,527 9.60% 98 0.61% 12,756 80.19% 15,908
Pittsylvania 10,858 35.39% 19,263 62.78% 560 1.83% -8,405 -27.39% 30,681
Poquoson 1,679 23.63% 5,312 74.75% 115 1.62% -3,633 -51.12% 7,106
Portsmouth 32,501 70.77% 12,858 28.00% 563 1.23% 19,643 42.77% 45,922
Powhatan 4,088 26.33% 11,200 72.14% 237 1.53% -7,112 -45.81% 15,525
Prince Edward 5,132 55.55% 3,952 42.78% 155 1.67% 1,180 12.77% 9,239
Prince George 6,991 43.57% 8,879 55.33% 176 1.10% -1,888 -11.76% 16,046
Prince William 103,331 57.34% 74,458 41.32% 2,406 1.34% 28,873 16.02% 180,195
Pulaski 5,292 36.05% 8,920 60.76% 468 3.19% -3,628 -24.71% 14,680
Radford 2,732 50.60% 2,520 46.68% 147 2.72% 212 3.92% 5,399
Rappahannock 1,980 45.44% 2,311 53.04% 66 1.52% -331 -7.60% 4,357
Richmond 1,574 41.75% 2,160 57.29% 36 0.96% -586 -15.54% 3,770
Richmond City 75,921 77.81% 20,050 20.55% 1,598 1.64% 55,871 57.26% 97,569
Roanoke 18,711 36.53% 31,624 61.75% 882 1.72% -12,913 -25.22% 51,217
Roanoke City 24,134 60.10% 14,991 37.33% 1,030 2.57% 9,143 22.77% 40,155
Rockbridge 4,088 40.17% 5,898 57.95% 191 1.88% -1,810 -17.78% 10,177
Rockingham 10,065 28.87% 24,186 69.37% 615 1.76% -14,121 -40.50% 34,866
Russell 3,718 30.76% 8,180 67.67% 190 1.57% -4,462 -36.91% 12,088
Salem 4,760 38.64% 7,299 59.25% 259 2.11% -2,539 -20.61% 12,318
Scott 2,395 23.97% 7,439 74.45% 158 1.58% -5,044 -50.48% 9,992
Shenandoah 6,469 33.39% 12,538 64.72% 366 1.89% -6,069 -31.33% 19,373
Smyth 4,171 32.64% 8,379 65.58% 227 1.78% -4,208 -32.94% 12,777
Southampton 4,437 47.90% 4,733 51.09% 94 1.01% -296 -3.19% 9,264
Spotsylvania 25,165 43.41% 31,844 54.93% 965 1.66% -6,679 -11.52% 57,974
Stafford 27,182 44.87% 32,480 53.61% 921 1.52% -5,298 -8.74% 60,583
Staunton 5,728 51.10% 5,272 47.03% 210 1.87% 456 4.07% 11,210
Suffolk 24,267 57.01% 17,820 41.86% 479 1.13% 6,447 15.15% 42,566
Surry 2,576 59.80% 1,671 38.79% 61 1.41% 905 21.01% 4,308
Sussex 3,358 61.73% 2,021 37.15% 61 1.12% 1,337 24.58% 5,440
Tazewell 3,661 20.65% 13,843 78.07% 228 1.28% -10,182 -57.42% 17,732
Virginia Beach 94,299 47.95% 99,291 50.49% 3,051 1.56% -4,992 -2.54% 196,641
Warren 6,452 38.64% 9,869 59.10% 377 2.26% -3,417 -20.46% 16,698
Washington 7,076 27.61% 18,141 70.77% 415 1.62% -11,065 -43.16% 25,632
Waynesboro 3,840 43.68% 4,790 54.49% 161 1.83% -950 -10.81% 8,791
Westmoreland 4,295 52.89% 3,731 45.95% 94 1.16% 564 6.94% 8,120
Williamsburg 4,903 63.28% 2,682 34.62% 163 2.10% 2,221 28.66% 7,748
Winchester 5,094 49.48% 4,946 48.04% 256 2.48% 148 1.44% 10,296
Wise 3,760 25.04% 11,076 73.75% 182 1.21% -7,316 -48.71% 15,018
Wythe 3,783 30.61% 8,324 67.36% 251 2.03% -4,541 -36.75% 12,358
York 13,183 38.83% 20,204 59.51% 566 1.66% -7,021 -20.68% 33,953
Totals 1,971,820 51.16% 1,822,522 47.28% 60,147 1.56% 149,298 3.88% 3,854,489
 
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Despite losing the state, Romney won 7 of 11 congressional districts, while Obama won 4, including one held by a Republican.[28]

District Romney Obama Representative
1st 53.1% 45.6% Rob Wittman
2nd 48.6% 50.1% Scott Rigell
3rd 19.99% 78.96% Robert C. Scott
4th 50.14% 48.77% Randy Forbes
5th 52.55% 45.88% Robert Hurt
6th 58.84% 39.46% Bob Goodlatte
7th 56.94% 41.72% Eric Cantor
8th 31.0% 67.76% Jim Moran
9th 63.08% 34.9% Morgan Griffith
10th 49.9% 48.8% Frank Wolf
11th 36.3% 62.46% Gerry Connolly

Analysis

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Despite Indiana and neighboring North Carolina flipping back into the Republican column, Virginia remained in the Democratic column, voting for President Obama with a margin of 3.88%, albeit a reduced margin from 2008 when he carried it by 6.30%.[29] 2008 was the first time a Democrat carried the state of Virginia since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in his landslide 1964 election.[30] Republican support, which had been anchored by the historically Republican D.C. suburbs, dwindled as the population grew. According to 270toWin, Obama carried Northern Virginia by 59.8% to Romney's 38.8%, a 21% margin, a great improvement from Al Gore's 3.2% win against George W. Bush in 2000 and John Kerry's 7.9% win against Bush in 2004.[3] The leftward shift of college-educated whites and dominance by the unabashedly liberal District of Columbia only furthered Democratic margins. Widening margins in Northern Virginia allowed Obama to counteract losses in Southwest Virginia as the Democrats increasingly supported environmentalist policies making them unpopular amongst Appalachian voters. Consequently, Democrats were able to comfortably carry it in every election following 2008: a Republican wouldn't win statewide public office in Virginia until Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 gubernatorial election.

According to exit polls from The New York Times,[31] voter demographics were split. Romney carried men 51-47 while Obama carried women 54–45. Men and women make up 47% and 53% of the electorate, respectively. While Romney expectedly carried white voters in a 61-37 landslide, Obama was able to offset these wins with 93–6, 64–33, and 66-32 landslides among African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, respectively. Cumulatively, these minorities consisted of 28% of the electorate. Splits among age groups were also obvious: voters 18 to 29 and 30 to 44 favored Obama 61-36 and 54–45, respectively, while voters aged 46–64 favored the Republican ticket 53-44 and 65+ favored them 54–46. Romney was able to carry three of four education groups: those with no, some, or a college degree favored Romney by narrow margins of 50–49, 51–47, and 50–48, respectively, but Obama canceled out these wins with a 57–42 win among postgraduates. Respectively, these groups comprise 46%, 25%, 30%, and 24% of voters. Self-identified moderates were carried by Obama 56–42, but Independents flipped back into the Republican column, backing Romney 54–43 after backing Obama by 1 percentage point in 2008.

Economic status also showed a clear political divide in exit polls. The president's strength came from lower-income voters: he carried those with an income under $30,000 by 61-38 and an income $30,000 to $50,000 by 60–38. Meanwhile, Romney carried those making over $50,000 by 52-47 and over $100,000 by 51–47. However, Romney's close win among the upper middle class was a good sign for Democrats: Bush carried them 57–43 in 2004, a 14-point win, and it solidified suburban Northern Virginia's shift left.

In terms of county performance, Romney flipped two counties back into the Republican column, including Montgomery, home to Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.[29] King and Queen County also returned to the Republican column, thereby making Obama the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying this county. Obama racked up his greatest margins in independent cities, where he received upwards of 70% of the vote in many of them. Petersburg gave 89.79% of its vote to the Democratic ticket. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Romney's best performances were in Southwest Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley, where he garnered over 60% of ballots cast.

Despite polls predicting a close race, Obama's comfortable margin in Virginia solidified the state's shift to the Democrats.[32] In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton would win the state by 5.32% against Donald Trump, one of the few states where she improved on Obama's margins despite losing the election nationwide.[33] In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by 10.11%, the best margin for a Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt's 24.97% margin in 1944.[34]

2012 Virginia presidential election (New York Times)
Demographic subgroup Obama Romney % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 92 7 24
Moderates 56 42 45
Conservatives 11 87 31
Party
Democrats 94 6 39
Republicans 5 94 32
Independents 43 54 29
Age
18–29 years old 61 36 19
30–44 years old 54 45 27
45–64 years old 46 53 41
65 and older 46 54 14
Gender
Men 47 51 47
Women 54 45 53
Marital status
Married 44 55 62
Unmarried 61 37 38
Race/ethnicity
White 37 61 70
Black 93 6 20
Latino 64 33 5
Asian 66 32 3
Education
Never attended college 49 50 46
Some college education 47 51 25
College graduate 48 50 30
Advanced degree 57 42 24
Income
Under $30K 61 38 18
$30K-$49K 60 38 18
$50K or more 47 52 65
$100K or more 47 51 34

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (December 31, 2012). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  2. ^ "VA Board of Elections". Archived from the original on May 10, 2013. Retrieved August 3, 2013.
  3. ^ a b Savicki, Drew (July 20, 2020). "The Road to 270: Virginia". 270toWin. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  4. ^ "Primary and Caucus Printable Calendar". CNN. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
  5. ^ "Presidential Primary Dates" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved January 23, 2012.
  6. ^ Nate Silver (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  7. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on December 5, 2012. Retrieved March 22, 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ^ a b "Virginia Republican". March 6, 2012. Retrieved March 6, 2012.
  9. ^ "Super Tuesday Delegate Count". DemocraticConventionWatch.com. March 6, 2012. Archived from the original on December 8, 2012. Retrieved March 6, 2012.
  10. ^ Anita Kumar, "Gingrich, Perry disqualified from Va. primary ballot" (December 24, 2011).
  11. ^ Martin Weil and Anita Kumar. "[1]" (December 27, 2011). Washington Post.
  12. ^ Catalina Camia, "Perry sues to get on Virginia ballot" (December 28, 2011). USA Today.
  13. ^ Kevin Liptak, "Candidates join Perry's Virginia lawsuit" (December 31, 2011). CNN.
  14. ^ Rebecca Kaplan, "Perry Hearing on Virginia Ballot Challenge Set for Jan. 13 Archived 2012-03-04 at the Wayback Machine" (December 29, 2011). National Journal.
  15. ^ Tom Schoenberg, "Virginia Argues Perry Can't Challenge Ballot" (January 4, 2012). Bloomberg.
  16. ^ Catalina Camia, "Judge rejects Perry, GOP hopefuls for Va. ballot" (January 13, 2012). USA Today.
  17. ^ Perry v. Judd, Unpublished E.D. Va. (2012).
  18. ^ "2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolitics".
  19. ^ "Election 2012 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  20. ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
  21. ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  22. ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
  23. ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
  24. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
  25. ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
  26. ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
  27. ^ Karen L. Haas, ed. (February 28, 2013). "Statistics of the presidential and congressional election of November 6, 2012" (PDF).
  28. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
  29. ^ a b "Virginia - Election Results 2008". The New York Times. November 4, 2008. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  30. ^ "Virginia Presidential Election Voting History". 270toWin. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  31. ^ "President Exit Polls". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  32. ^ Cohen, Micah (November 4, 2012). "In Virginia, It's Tradition Versus Change". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  33. ^ "Virginia Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 1, 2017. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  34. ^ "Virginia Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
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