Wikipedia:Reference desk/Archives/Science/2024 August 11

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August 11

A hypothetical male version of Jeanne Calment

Would a hypothetical male version of Jeanne Calment, if one will ever actually exist (including in the future), be(come) around 119 years old? (Since Calment herself was almost 122.5 when she died (122.45 years, to be more specific) and 122.45 - 3 = 119.45.) Based on the data here (List of the verified oldest people), it seems like the men are generally around three years younger than the women of the equivalent rank (for instance, comparing the 100th oldest man ever to the 100th oldest woman ever, or the 50th oldest man ever to the 50th oldest woman ever, or the 25th oldest man ever to the 25th oldest woman ever, et cetera). 172.59.128.60 (talk) 05:19, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

Aside from the fact that we don't do such guesswork here, there is doubt about the age Jeanne Calment actually reached. ←Baseball Bugs ^{What's up, Doc?} carrots→ 06:09, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

"there is doubt".  --Lambiam 13:58, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

Was Jeanne Calment the Oldest Person Who Ever Lived—or a Fraud?

Some researchers have cast doubt on the record of the celebrated supercentenarian. By Lauren Collins The New Yorker 2020/02/17 [1]. This article is behind a paywall, hence I have not read it yet. Anyway, I've always wondered whether researchers were able to rule out familiar fraud in which the daughter at some point assumes their mom's identity. With an age difference of 23 years that would make her "only" 99 when she died. According to her article some family photos were deliberately burned which is a red flag that may or might not have been dealt with adequately. In addition, I expect that the growing popularity of genetic genealogy will be able to shed further light on her claim, either confirming or disproving it. hModocc (talk) 15:06, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

I suspect that she really was 122.45 years old when she died and that the people who argue otherwise are merely spewing a Russian conspiracy theory. However, maybe this question will eventually be settled with DNA testing. I don't know. Though if so, then I would expect the conspiracy theory proponents to be humiliated. 172.59.128.60 (talk) 21:13, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

I live in Hawaii, where the number of centenarians is staggering, to the point where you will inevitably meet one at some point. For me, the question is why aren't there more supercentenarians here. Something seems to happen between 103-106 or so, but I don't know what it is. Maybe poor eyesight leads to more falls, and premature death. Viriditas (talk) 23:16, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

It is really a matter of how you define the notion of a (hypothetical) "male version" of a female person. Life expectancy depends on many factors other than sex – where one lives, family, education, lifestyle. Would your hypothetical male version of Jeanne Calment also have led a leisurely lifestyle within the upper society of Arles, pursuing hobbies such as fencing, cycling, tennis, swimming, rollerskating, playing the piano, and making music with friends? If the defining characteristic is narrowed to dying at an age with the same percentage in actuarial tables for the separate genders, these tables are time-dependent and population-dependent. I don't know how easy it will be to find such tables for France around 1997. And they will not extend to the age of 122 anyway, so one would need to replace them by a plausible mathematical model that fits the available data.  --Lambiam 13:46, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

Yes, it's not obvious what "a hypothetical male version of Jeanne Calment" means precisely.

There's lifespan data for people with ~50% and ~25% samples of her genetic make-up, an example of the many factors at play.

Father - 93

Mother - 86

First son Antoine - 4

First daughter Marie - 1

Second son Francois - 97

Second daughter Jeanne - 122

Jeanne's daughter Yvonne - 36

Jeanne's grandson Frederic - 36

Sean.hoyland (talk) 15:07, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

Frederic died in a car accident, so he didn't live to his full potential. Or was it in a motorcycle accident? Either way, my point here still stands. 172.59.128.60 (talk) 21:14, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

Well, it's entirely possible, given Murphy's Law, that the gene interaction network presumably partially responsible for Jeanne's lifespan, increases the likelihood of death by traffic accident in males. Sean.hoyland (talk) 13:50, 12 August 2024 (UTC)

They answer is yes, but you're not going to like the implications: A "study followed 81 castrated men and found that their lifespan was on average 14.6 years longer than non-castrated males. A study in Italy in 2014 found similar results, with castrated men living on average 13.5 years longer than non-castrated males." Viriditas (talk) 23:01, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

But male supercentenarians generally aren't castrated, are they?

Male hormones may limit life expectancy. As to why these supercentenarian men defy the odds, I cannot say. Viriditas (talk) 23:08, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

We have an article, profoundly depressing, on forced sterilisation. This article does not seem to mention any effects on life expectancy. However, multiple websites state significant increases on life expectancy (20% - 60%) in neutered dogs and cats. --Cookatoo.ergo.ZooM (talk) 06:32, 12 August 2024 (UTC)

Russia having very few validated supercentenarians

Is the reason for Russia having very few validated supercentenarians in part due to the fact that both Communism and Nazism caused an extraordinarily massive number of premature deaths in Russia? (Ditto for Ukraine and Belarus?) 172.59.128.60 (talk) 23:03, 11 August 2024 (UTC)

Vodka. Abductive (reasoning) 00:54, 12 August 2024 (UTC)

The 2021 population pyramid of the Russian Federation shows a steep drop when going from the 70–74 bracket (people born in or after 1947) to the 75–79 bracket (people born in or before 1946), and an even steeper drop in the transition from the 80–84 to the 85–89 bracket. The Russian pyramid has a much thinner spire than that of the UK, which shows more gradual transitions. The strong relative lack of supercentenarians will continue for another 35 years. A connection with the extreme hardship of WWII appears plausible.  --Lambiam 12:01, 12 August 2024 (UTC)

It's also noticeable that male-female ratio in the older age groups is much lower in the Russian pyramid than in the British, even for the 65–69 and 70–74 groups. AndrewWTaylor (talk) 13:51, 12 August 2024 (UTC)