Elmwood—Transcona

Elmwood—Transcona
Manitoba electoral district
	Elmwood—Transcona in relation to other Manitoba federal electoral districts as of the 2013 Representation Order. Dotted line shows Winnipeg city limits.
Federal electoral district
Legislature	House of Commons
MP	Leila Dance; New Democratic
;
District created	1987
First contested	1988
Last contested	2024 by-election
District webpage	profile, map
Demographics
Population (2021)	101,691
Electors (2015)	64,395
Area (km²)	50
Pop. density (per km²)	2,033.8
Census division(s)	Division No. 11
Census subdivision(s)	Winnipeg

Elmwood—Transcona (formerly Winnipeg—Transcona) is a federal electoral district in Manitoba, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1988. Its population in 2021 was 101,691.

History

The riding was created in 1987 from Winnipeg North Centre and Winnipeg—Birds Hill ridings.

It was previously named Winnipeg—Transcona from 1987 to 2003.^[2]

The riding gained territory from Kildonan—St. Paul and a fraction from Saint Boniface during the 2012 electoral redistribution.

Following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, the riding will lose the area north of Leighton Avenue and west of Raleigh Street to Kildonan—St. Paul and will gain the Navin, Norcan and Dugald areas from Provencher,

Geography

Elmwood–Transcona is located in the northeastern corner of Winnipeg, covering the East Kildonan, Elmwood, Transcona and part of the North Kildonan sections of the city. It covers the neighbourhoods of Chalmers, Eaglemere, East Elmwood, Glenelm, Grassie, Kern Park, Canterbury Park, Kildonan Crossing, Meadows, Munroe East, Munroe West, Peguis, Raidisson, Regent, Rossmere, Transcona South, Mission Gardens, Melrose, Kildare-Redonda, Kildonan Drive, Talbot-Grey, Transcona Yards, Tyne-Tees, Valley Gardens and Victoria West. It covers 50 km².

In the 2019 and 2021 elections, the NDP have been stronger in the western, more urban part of the riding, especially in Elmwood. Their best neighbourhood in both elections was Glenelm in the West Elmwood Area. The Conservatives saw their best results in the eastern, more suburban part of the riding. Their best neighbourhood in both elections was the Transcona South/Transcona Yards area.

Demographics

As of the Canada 2021 Census

Languages: 75.4% English, 4.5% Tagalog, 4.2% Punjabi, 2.6% French, 1.5% German, 1.4% Spanish, 1.0% Ukrainian
Religions: 50.9% Christian (21.8% Catholic, 4.0% United Church, 2.4% Anglican, 2.4% Lutheran, 2.1% Pentecostal, 1.7% Christian Orthodox, 1.3% Anabaptist, 15.2% Other), 4.2% Sikh, 2.2% Muslim, 1.4% Hindu, 39.4% None
Median income: $40,800 (2020)
Average income: $46,120 (2020)

Racial groups in Elmwood—Transcona (2011−2021)
Racial group	2021^[3]		2016^[4]		2011^[5]
Racial group	Pop.	%	Pop.	%	Pop.	%
European^[a]	57,705	57.4%	59,230	64.96%	62,565	73.64%
Indigenous	14,230	14.15%	12,395	13.59%	10,385	12.22%
Filipino	8,655	8.61%	6,765	7.42%	3,725	4.38%
Southeast Asian	1,470	1.46%	1,030	1.13%	1,065	1.25%
Black	6,735	6.7%	3,910	4.29%	1,915	2.25%
South Asian	6,425	6.39%	3,850	4.22%	1,800	2.12%
Latin American	1,875	1.86%	1,440	1.58%	1,615	1.9%
Chinese	1,035	1.03%	990	1.09%	865	1.02%
Korean	115	0.11%	170	0.19%	100	0.12%
Japanese	160	0.16%	215	0.24%	125	0.15%
Arab	595	0.59%	260	0.29%	150	0.18%
West Asian	250	0.25%	220	0.24%	195	0.23%
Other/multiracial^[b]	1,290	1.28%	695	0.76%	455	0.54%
Total responses	100,540	98.87%	91,185	98.33%	84,960	98.9%
Total population	101,691	100%	92,738	100%	85,906	100%
Notes: Totals greater than 100% due to multiple origin responses. Demographics based on 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution riding boundaries.

Members of Parliament

Parliament	Years		Party
Winnipeg—Transcona Riding created from Winnipeg North Centre and Winnipeg—Birds Hill
34th	1988–1993	Bill Blaikie	New Democratic
35th	1993–1997
36th	1997–2000
37th	2000–2004
Elmwood—Transcona
38th	2004–2006	Bill Blaikie	New Democratic
39th	2006–2008	Bill Blaikie
40th	2008–2011	Jim Maloway
41st	2011–2015	Lawrence Toet	Conservative
42nd	2015–2019	Daniel Blaikie	New Democratic
43rd	2019–2021
44th	2021–2024
44th	2024–present	Leila Dance

Election results

Graph of election results in Elmwood—Transcona (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)

v t e Canadian federal by-election, September 16, 2024 Resignation of Daniel Blaikie
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	New Democratic	Leila Dance	13,597	48.18	-1.51
	Conservative	Colin Reynolds	12,415	44.00	+15.87
	Liberal	Ian MacIntyre	1,362	4.83	-9.92
	Green	Nicolas Geddert	360	1.28	-0.34
	People's	Sarah Couture	353	1.25	-4.57
	Canadian Future	Zbig Strycharz	132	0.47	—
Total valid votes			28,219	99.62
Total rejected ballots			107	0.38
Turnout			28,326	39.16	-20.46
Eligible voters			72,325
	New Democratic hold		Swing		-8.73
Source: Elections Canada^[6]

2021 federal election redistributed results^[7]
Party		Vote	%
	New Democratic	20,001	49.12
	Conservative	11,585	28.45
	Liberal	6,057	14.88
	People's	2,423	5.95
	Green	647	1.59
	Others	5	0.01

v t e 2021 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Daniel Blaikie	20,791	49.69	+4.07	$63,992.50
	Conservative	Rejeanne Caron	11,768	28.13	-9.32	$53,284.18
	Liberal	Sara Mirwaldt	6,169	14.74	+2.42	$10,073.29
	People's	Jamie Cumming	2,435	5.82	+4.64	$276.86
	Green	Devlin Hinchey	676	1.62	-1.80	$0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit			41,839	99.26	–	$106,782.98
Total rejected ballots			314	0.74	+0.03
Turnout			42,153	59.62	-2.72
Eligible voters			70,701
	New Democratic hold		Swing		+6.69
Source: Elections Canada^[8]

v t e 2019 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Daniel Blaikie	19,786	45.63	+11.49	$84,787.58
	Conservative	Lawrence Toet	16,240	37.45	+3.45	$90,425.22
	Liberal	Jennifer Malabar	5,346	12.33	-17.18	$35,581.50
	Green	Kelly Manweiler	1,480	3.41	+1.05	none listed
	People's	Noel Gautron	512	1.18	–	$2,119.25
Total valid votes/expense limit			43,364	99.28
Total rejected ballots			313	0.72	+0.30
Turnout			43,677	62.34	-3.26
Eligible voters			70,062
	New Democratic hold		Swing		+4.02
Source: Elections Canada^[9]

v t e 2015 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Daniel Blaikie	14,709	34.14	-10.67	$109,753.17
	Conservative	Lawrence Toet	14,648	34.00	-12.92	$127,718.93
	Liberal	Andrea Richardson-Lipon	12,713	29.51	+24.32	$23,842.58
	Green	Kim Parke	1,016	2.36	-0.71	–
Total valid votes/expense limit			43,086	99.58		$199,824.02
Total rejected ballots			182	0.42	–
Turnout			43,268	66.60	–
Eligible voters			65,961
	New Democratic gain from Conservative		Swing		+1.12
Source: Elections Canada^[10]^[11]^[12]

2011 federal election redistributed results^[13]
Party		Vote	%
	Conservative	16,086	46.91
	New Democratic	15,364	44.81
	Liberal	1,779	5.19
	Green	1,053	3.07
	Others	7	0.02

v t e 2011 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Conservative	Lawrence Toet	15,298	46.40	+5.66	–
	New Democratic	Jim Maloway	14,998	45.49	-0.29	–
	Liberal	Ilona Niemczyk	1,660	5.03	-1.59	–
	Green	Ellen Young	1,017	3.08	-2.78	–
Total valid votes/expense limit			32,973	99.66		–
Total rejected ballots			112	0.34	+0.02
Turnout			33,085	55.93	+1.89
Eligible voters			59,154	–	–
	Conservative gain from New Democratic		Swing		+2.97

Source: Elections Canada

v t e 2008 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Jim Maloway	14,355	45.77	−5.07	$73,584.88
	Conservative	Thomas Steen	12,776	40.74	+8.61	$60,628.72
	Liberal	Wes Penner	2,079	6.63	−5.68	$30,542.33
	Green	Chris Hrynkow	1,839	5.86	+2.23	$847.16
	Christian Heritage	Robert Scott	312	0.99	−0.09	$2,735.85
Total valid votes/expense limit			31,361	99.68	–	$77,369.61
Total rejected ballots			100	0.32	−0.08
Turnout			31,461	54.04	−4.16
Electors on the lists			58,216
	New Democratic hold		Swing		−6.84

v t e 2006 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Bill Blaikie	16,967	50.85	−1.14	$40,314.57
	Conservative	Linda West	10,720	32.13	+6.02	$68,007.66
	Liberal	Tanya Parks	4,108	12.31	−4.50	$12,622.61
	Green	Tanja Hutter	1,211	3.63	+1.17	$240.77
	Christian Heritage	Robert Scott	363	1.09	−0.23	$706.54
Total valid votes			33,369	99.60
Total rejected ballots			133	0.40	+0.12
Turnout			33,502	58.20	+7.55
Electors on the lists			57,561
	New Democratic hold		Swing		−3.58
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.

v t e 2004 Canadian federal election
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Bill Blaikie	15,221	51.99	+3.84	$37,459.54
	Conservative	Bryan McLeod	7,644	26.11	−5.58	$33,737.79
	Liberal	Tanya Parks	4,923	16.81	−1.55	$20,165.52
	Green	Elijah Gair	719	2.46	–	$204.72
	Christian Heritage	Robert Scott	386	1.32	–	$2,599.64
	Marijuana	Gavin Whittaker	311	1.06	–	–
	Communist	Paul Sidon	74	0.25	–	$654.57
Total valid votes			29,278	99.73
Total rejected ballots			80	0.27
Turnout			29,358	50.65
Electors on the lists			57,965
	New Democratic hold		Swing		+4.71
Percentage change figures are factored for redistribution. Conservative Party percentages are contrasted with the combined Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative percentages from 2000.
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.

2000 federal election redistributed results^[14]
Party		Vote	%
	New Democratic	15,205	48.15
	Canadian Alliance	7,967	25.23
	Liberal	5,801	18.37
	Progressive Conservative	2,041	6.46
	Others	566	1.79

Winnipeg—Transcona, 1996–2003

Map of Winnipeg—Transcona in use from 1996 to 2003

v t e 2000 Canadian federal election: Winnipeg—Transcona
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Bill Blaikie	15,680	47.85	−2.42	$35,468.07
	Alliance	Shawn Rattai	8,336	25.44	+8.21	$21,800.25
	Liberal	Bret Dobbin	6,041	18.43	−3.03	$17,596.32
	Progressive Conservative	Chris Brewer	2,133	6.51	−2.46	–
	Green	C. David Nickarz	229	0.70	–	–
	Christian Heritage	Robert Scott	146	0.45	−0.83	$3,639.93
	Independent	Theresa Ducharme	118	0.36	−0.13	–
	Communist	James Hogaboam	87	0.27		$263.77
Total valid votes			32,770	99.61
Total rejected ballots			127	0.39	−0.21
Turnout			32,897	58.38	−1.97
Electors on the lists			56,345
	New Democratic hold		Swing		−5.31
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.

v t e 1997 Canadian federal election: Winnipeg—Transcona
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Bill Blaikie	16,640	50.27	+11.01	$37,996
	Liberal	Rosemary Broadbent	7,105	21.46	−16.90	$25,771
	Reform	Helen Sterzer	5,703	17.23	+3.42	$19,506
	Progressive Conservative	Glenn Buffie	2,968	8.97	+4.01	$7,682
	Christian Heritage	Robert Scott	423	1.28		$3,633
	Independent	Theresa Ducharme	161	0.49		$111
	Marxist–Leninist	Ken Kalturnyk	104	0.31		$11
Total valid votes			33,104	99.40
Total rejected ballots			199	0.60
Turnout			33,303	60.36
Electors on the lists			55,177
	New Democratic hold		Swing		+13.95
Percentage change figures are factored for redistribution.
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.

1993 federal election redistributed results^[15]
Party		Vote	%
	New Democratic	15,731	39.26
	Liberal	15,371	38.36
	Reform	5,531	13.80
	Progressive Conservative	1,985	4.95
	Others	1,453	3.63

Winnipeg—Transcona, 1987–1996

Map of Winnipeg—Transcona used from 1987 to 1996

v t e 1993 Canadian federal election: Winnipeg—Transcona
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Bill Blaikie	16,074	38.86	−2.26	$33,353
	Liberal	Art Miki	15,855	38.33	+6.45	$45,977
	Reform	Helen Sterzer	5,829	14.09	–	$7,111
	Progressive Conservative	Brett Eckstein	2,112	5.11	−20.51	$13,422
	National	Marnie Johnston	900	2.18	–	$14,483
	Christian Heritage	Robert Scott	362	0.88	–	$2,688
	Natural Law	Geoff Danyluk	150	0.36	–	$78
	Marxist–Leninist	Ken Kalturnyk	42	0.10	−0.17	$216
	Canada Party	Bill Tataryn	39	0.09	–	$0
Total valid votes			41,363	100.00
Total rejected ballots			144	0.35	+0.04
Turnout			41,507	70.15	−5.32
Electors on the lists			59,169
	New Democratic hold		Swing		−4.36
Source: Thirty-fifth General Election, 1993: Official Voting Results, Published by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. Financial figures taken from official contributions and expenses provided by Elections Canada.

v t e 1988 Canadian federal election: Winnipeg—Transcona
Party	Candidate	Votes	%
	New Democratic	Bill Blaikie	17,361	41.13
	Liberal	Shirley Timm-Rudolph	13,460	31.88
	Progressive Conservative	Mike Thompson	10,815	25.62
	Western Independence	Fred Cameron	308	0.73
	Independent	Gerry West	156	0.37
	Marxist–Leninist	Karen Naylor	115	0.27
Total valid votes			42,215	100.00
Total rejected ballots			130	0.31
Turnout			42,345	75.47
Electors on the lists			56,110

References

"Elmwood—Transcona (Code 46005) Census Profile". 2011 census. Government of Canada - Statistics Canada. Retrieved March 3, 2011.
Riding history for Elmwood–Transcona (2003– ) from the Library of Parliament
Expenditures - 2008

Notes

^ Statistic includes all persons that did not make up part of a visible minority or an indigenous identity.
^ Statistic includes total responses of "Visible minority, n.i.e." and "Multiple visible minorities" under visible minority section on census.

^ ^a ^b Statistics Canada: 2012
^ CBC News (September 20, 2010). "Elmwood - Transcona". CBC News.
^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 26, 2022). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 27, 2021). "Census Profile, 2016 Census". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
^ Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (November 27, 2015). "NHS Profile". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
^ "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
^ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.
^ "Elmwood—Transcona forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
^ "Elmwood—Transcona forty-third general election 2019 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
^ Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Elmwood—Transcona, 30 September 2015
^ Elections Canada – Preliminary Election Expenses Limits for Candidates Archived August 15, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
^ "Elmwood—Transcona forty-second general election 2015 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
^ Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections
^ Election Prediction Project
^ Pundit's Guide to Canadian Elections - Internet Archive

49°55′07″N 97°01′53″W / 49.9186°N 97.0313°W / 49.9186; -97.0313

[euro-6] Statistic includes all persons that did not make up part of a visible minority or an indigenous identity.

[Other-7] Statistic includes total responses of "Visible minority, n.i.e." and "Multiple visible minorities" under visible minority section on census.

[stats-1] Statistics Canada: 2012

[2] CBC News (September 20, 2010). "Elmwood - Transcona". CBC News.

[2021censusB-3] Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 26, 2022). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.

[2016censusB-4] Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 27, 2021). "Census Profile, 2016 Census". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.

[2011censusB-5] Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (November 27, 2015). "NHS Profile". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.

[8] "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada. Retrieved September 23, 2024.

[9] "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 9, 2024.

[10] "Elmwood—Transcona forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.

[11] "Elmwood—Transcona forty-third general election 2019 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.

[12] Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Elmwood—Transcona, 30 September 2015

[13] Elections Canada – Preliminary Election Expenses Limits for Candidates Archived August 15, 2015, at the Wayback Machine

[14] "Elmwood—Transcona forty-second general election 2015 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.

[15] Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections

[16] Election Prediction Project

[17] Pundit's Guide to Canadian Elections - Internet Archive

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