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2008 Missouri gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2008 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2008 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Blunt decided to retire instead of seeking reelection to a second term in office. Democratic nominee Jay Nixon won the open seat, defeating Republican nominee Kenny Hulshof.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee Jay Nixon Kenny Hulshof
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,680,661 1,136,364
Percentage 58.4% 39.5%
Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Hulshof:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Matt Blunt
Republican

Elected Governor

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Background

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On January 22, 2008, Governor Blunt unexpectedly announced that he would not seek re-election[1] because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same sense of mission for a second."

A November 2007 poll conducted by SurveyUSA showed Blunt with a 44% approval rating.[2] His approval among Republicans polled was 68%, and his rating among Democrats was 23%.[2] On November 10, 2007, Democrat Jay Nixon filed the necessary paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to launch a 2008 campaign for governor.[3]

The gubernatorial and other statewide office primaries were held August 5, 2008.[4] CQ Politics rated the race as 'Leans Democratic'.[5]

Timeline

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  • March 25, 2008 – Filing deadline for Democrats, Republicans and Libertarians[6]
  • August 5, 2008 – Primary (gubernatorial and other statewide office) elections[6]
  • August 19, 2008 – Filing deadline for other third parties and Independents[6]
  • November 4, 2008 – General election.

Primaries

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Republican primary

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Republican primary results[7]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kenny Hulshof 194,556 49.2
Republican Sarah Steelman 176,750 44.7
Republican Scott Long 18,745 4.7
Republican Jen Sievers 5,664 1.4
Total votes 395,715 100.0

Democratic primary

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jay Nixon 303,796 85.0
Democratic Daniel Carroll 53,768 15.0
Total votes 357,564 100.0

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[8] Lean D (flip) October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[9] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2008
Real Clear Politics[11] Likely D (flip) November 4, 2008

Polling

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Source Date Kenny
Hulshof (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D)
Public Policy Polling[12] November 2, 2008 38% 58%
Survey USA[13] November 2, 2008 39% 54%
Survey USA[14] October 26, 2008 38% 55%
Rasmussen Reports[15] October 14, 2008 38% 57%
Survey USA[16] September 24, 2008 37% 54%
Rasmussen Reports[15] September 11, 2008 39% 54%
Public Policy Polling[17] August 17, 2008 42% 48%
Survey USA[18] July 31, 2008 42% 48%
Rasmussen Reports[15] July 7, 2008 38% 49%
Rasmussen[19] June 9, 2008 34% 54%
Survey USA[20] May 20, 2008 33% 57%
Rasmussen[21] May 8, 2008 35% 51%
Rasmussen[22] March 24, 2008 37% 48%
Rasmussen[23] February 13, 2008 30% 48%
Hypothetical polling

With Steelman

Source Date Sarah
Steelman (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D)
Survey USA[18] July 31, 2008 41% 50%
Rasmussen Reports[15] July 7, 2008 37% 46%
Rasmussen[19] June 9, 2008 34% 56%
Survey USA[20] May 20, 2008 33% 58%
Rasmussen[21] May 8, 2008 35% 51%
Rasmussen[22] March 24, 2008 39% 46%
Rasmussen[23] February 13, 2008 35% 46%

With Blunt

Source Date Matt
Blunt (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D)
Rasmussen Reports[24] December 12, 2007 42% 47%
Research2000[25] November 24, 2007 42% 51%
Rasmussen[26] October 10, 2007 44% 43%
Rasmussen[26] August 23, 2007 43% 46%
SurveyUSA[27] July 25–27, 2007 38% 57%

Results

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On election night, Nixon won easily, even though fellow Democrat Barack Obama lost in Missouri in the concurrent presidential election (albeit by only 4,000 votes). Nixon was able to perform well in rural parts of the state. When combined with heavily populated, strong Democratic areas like St. Louis and Kansas City, Hulshof didn't have a chance to come back. Nixon was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Missouri. Hulshof conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. Central Time.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jay Nixon 1,680,611 58.4 +10.6
Republican Kenny Hulshof 1,136,364 39.5 −11.3
Libertarian Andrew Finkenstadt 31,850 1.1 +0.2
Constitution Gregory Thompson 28,941 1.0 +0.6
Write-in 12 0.0 n/a
Total votes 2,877,778 100.0 n/a
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Shelton, Missy (January 22, 2008). "Governor Matt Blunt Will Not Seek Re-election". KSMU. Archived from the original on April 15, 2013. Retrieved July 18, 2021.
  2. ^ a b Survey USA
  3. ^ Article[permanent dead link‍] by Columbia Daily Tribune: Document points to Nixon run
  4. ^ August 5, 2008 State Primary Election Information Missouri Secretary of State
  5. ^ Dems Gain in Five of Six New CQ Politics Rating Changes Archived 2008-10-12 at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics, October 8, 2008
  6. ^ a b c 2008 Missouri Election Calendar from the Missouri Secretary of State
  7. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 9, 2008. Retrieved August 6, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ^ "2008 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 4, 2021.
  9. ^ "2008 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved May 25, 2021.
  10. ^ "THE LAST LAST WORD The Crystal Ball's Final Projections for the 2008 Election". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 25, 2021.
  11. ^ "2008 Missouri Governor Race". RealClearPolitics. November 4, 2008. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
  12. ^ Public Policy Polling
  13. ^ Survey USA
  14. ^ Survey USA
  15. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  16. ^ Survey USA
  17. ^ Public Policy Polling
  18. ^ a b Survey USA
  19. ^ a b Rasmussen
  20. ^ a b Survey USA
  21. ^ a b Rasmussen
  22. ^ a b Rasmussen
  23. ^ a b Rasmussen
  24. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  25. ^ Research2000
  26. ^ a b Rasmussen
  27. ^ SurveyUSA
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