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2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

The United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 election. Shaheen's win marked the first time since 1972 that Democrats won this seat, and made her the first Democratic Senator elected from New Hampshire since John A. Durkin's victory in 1975.

2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
← 2002 November 4, 2008 2014 →
 
Nominee Jeanne Shaheen John E. Sununu
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 358,438 314,403
Percentage 51.62% 45.28%
Shaheen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%
Sununu:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

John E. Sununu
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

Background

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For a considerable amount of time, New Hampshire had always been considered an island of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council, and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911).[1] The popularity of Governor Lynch was considered an impediment to Sununu's re-election.[2] Though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Shaheen, the Democratic nominee, at a rally in the lead-up to the election.

Astronaut Jay Buckey MD, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett, (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett), had announced their candidacies but withdrew in favor of former governor Jeanne Shaheen upon her entrance into the race.[3]

Shaheen had been the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted to run by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats, and by a "Draft Shaheen" campaign led by former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Kathy Sullivan.

The filing deadline for the Democratic and Republican Parties was June 13, 2008. Shaheen filed, as did Raymond Stebbins.[4]

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen 43,968 88.5%
Democratic Raymond Stebbins 5,281 10.6%
Write-in 407 0.8%
Total votes 49,656 100.0%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Sununu (incumbent) 60,852 88.7%
Republican Tom Alciere 7,084 10.3%
Write-in 685 1.0%
Total votes 68,621 100.0%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating.[6] A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat.[7]

A July 2008 Granite State Poll had Sununu's favorability rating at 52%, his unfavorability rating at 33%, and neutral or undecided by 16%.[8] Shaheen is viewed favorable by 53%, unfavorable by 31% and neutral or undecided by 15%.[9]

Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, had mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu had said he would remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary. However, McCain selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin instead.

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Tossup October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[11] Lean D (flip) October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[12] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[13] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2008

Polling

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Source Date John
Sununu (R) 		Jeanne
Shaheen (D) 		Ken
Blevens (L) 		Undecided
American Research Group[14] March 29, 2007 34% 44% –– 22%
American Research Group[15] June 2007 29% 57% –– 14%
Research 2000[16] July 2007 34% 56% –– 10%
WMUR-CNN[17] July 2007 38% 54% –– 7%
Rasmussen Reports[18] September 16, 2007 43% 48% –– 9%
American Research Group[19] September 18, 2007 41% 46% –– 13%
WMUR-CNN[20] September 2007 38% 54% –– 7%
SurveyUSA[21] November 5, 2007 42% 53% –– 5%
American Research Group[22] December 20, 2007 52% 41% –– 7%
Granite State Poll[23] February 11, 2008 37% 54% –– 7%
Rasmussen Reports[24] February 13, 2008 41% 49% –– ––
American Research Group[25] March 20, 2008 33% 47% –– 20%
Rasmussen Reports[26] March 21, 2008 41% 49% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports[27] May 23, 2008 43% 50% –– ––
American Research Group[28] June 18, 2008 40% 54% –– 6%
Rasmussen Reports[29] June 20, 2008 39% 53% –– ––
Granite State Poll[30] July 20, 2008 42% 46% –– 10%
American Research Group[31] July 19, 2008 36% 58% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports[32] July 23, 2008 45% 51% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports[33] August 19, 2008 43% 52% –– ––
American Research Group[34] August 18, 2008 41% 52% –– 7%
Public Opinion Strategies[35] September 3, 2008 44% 46% 3% 5%
American Research Group[36] September 13, 2008 40% 52% –– 8%
Granite State Poll[37] September 14, 2008 44% 48% –– 7%
Rasmussen Reports[38] September 23, 2008 52% 45% 1% 2%
Rasmussen Reports[39] October 1, 2008 45% 50% 1% 3%
Rasmussen Reports[40] October 23, 2008 46% 52% –– ––
Rasmussen Reports[41] October 30, 2008 44% 52% –– ––
Survey USA[42] October 30, 2008 40% 53% 6% 2%

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Jeanne Shaheen (D) $8,273,501.00 $8,225,580.00 $47,920.00 $120,630.00
John Sununu (R) $8,879,307.00 $8,868,017.00 $104,187.00 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[43]

Results

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Results by municipality.
2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen 358,438 51.62% +4.95%
Republican John Sununu (incumbent) 314,403 45.28% −5.83%
Libertarian Ken Blevens 21,516 3.10% +0.89%
Total votes 694,357 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature
  2. ^ "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?". Real Clear Politics. July 30, 2007. Retrieved July 30, 2007.[dead link‍]
  3. ^ Swett Drops Out Of NH Senate Race[permanent dead link‍] WCSH 6 September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 22, 2007
  4. ^ Democratic Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
  5. ^ Republican Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
  6. ^ Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151, conducted November 2006
  7. ^ Ralph Z. Hallow, "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton", Washington Times, June 27, 2007
  8. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  9. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  10. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  11. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  12. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  13. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  14. ^ American Research Group
  15. ^ American Research Group
  16. ^ Research 2000
  17. ^ WMUR-CNN
  18. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  19. ^ American Research Group
  20. ^ WMUR-CNN
  21. ^ SurveyUSA [permanent dead link‍]
  22. ^ American Research Group
  23. ^ Granite State Poll
  24. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  25. ^ American Research Group
  26. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  27. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  28. ^ American Research Group
  29. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ Granite State Poll
  31. ^ American Research Group
  32. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  33. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  34. ^ American Research Group
  35. ^ Public Opinion Strategies
  36. ^ American Research Group
  37. ^ Granite State Poll
  38. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  39. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  40. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  42. ^ Survey USA
  43. ^ "New Hampshire 2008 Senate race fundraising".
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