Wikipedia

2024 Montana gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of Montana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.[2] Incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Ryan Busse.[3]

2024 Montana gubernatorial election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Reporting
93%
as of Nov. 6, 10:05 AM MST[1]
 
Nominee Greg Gianforte Ryan Busse
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kristen Juras Raph Graybill
Popular vote 327,089 207,980
Percentage 59.6% 37.9%
County results
Gianforte:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90-100%
Busse:      50–60%
Governor before election

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Elected Governor

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Though Montana has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1996, the sparsely-populated Mountain state maintained a Democratic tendency at the state and U.S. Senate levels well through the 2010s. In the 2020 gubernatorial election, Gianforte defeated Democratic nominee Mike Cooney by 12.8%, becoming the first Republican to be elected governor of Montana since Judy Martz in 2000. Gianforte's election flipped two of Montana's last three Democrat-held statewide offices (governor and lieutenant governor) into the GOP camp. Leading up to the election, the only statewide office occupied by a Democrat was Jon Tester's U.S. Senate seat, which flipped Republican in a concurrent race.[4] Gianforte was widely expected to comfortably win re-election in 2024.[5][6]

Republican primary

edit

Candidates

edit

Nominee

edit

Eliminated in primary

edit

Endorsements

edit
Greg Gianforte
Organizations

Results

edit
 
Primary results by county:
  Gianforte
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Gianforte (incumbent)
Kristen Juras (incumbent) 		144,752 75.2%
Republican Tanner Smith
Randy Pinocci 		47,747 24.8%
Total votes 192,499 100.0%

Democratic primary

edit

Candidates

edit

Nominee

edit

Eliminated in primary

edit

Withdrawn

edit
  • Shawn White Wolf, perennial candidate[17]

Results

edit
 
Primary results by county
  Busse
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Hunt
  •   60–70%
  Tie
  •   50%
Democratic primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ryan Busse
Raph Graybill 		69,184 70.9%
Democratic Jim Hunt
Jerry Driscoll 		28,354 29.1%
Total votes 97,538 100.00%

Libertarian primary

edit

Candidates

edit

Presumptive nominee

edit
  • Kaiser Leib, software engineer[15]
    • Running mate: Matt Campbell, transportation engineer[16]

General election

edit

Predictions

edit
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[19] Solid R June 13, 2024
Inside Elections[20] Solid R July 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Safe R June 4, 2024
RCP[22] Likely R July 13, 2024
Elections Daily[23] Safe R July 12, 2023
CNalysis[24] Solid R August 17, 2024

Polling

edit
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Gianforte (R) 		Ryan
Busse (D) 		Other Undecided
Montana State University September 30 – October 16, 2024 760 (A) ± 3.56% 50% 31% 5%[b] 14%
The New York Times/Siena College October 5–8, 2024 656 (LV) ± 4.3% 57% 35% – 8%
656 (RV) 57% 35% – 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] September 29 – October 1, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.34% 55% 36% 1%[c] 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[B] 		August 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 54% 38% – 8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] August 18–20, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 53% 34% 4%[d] 8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[A] June 11–13, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 33% 5%[e] 8%
SurveyUSA[C] February 12–15, 2024 549 (LV) ± 4.5% 52% 30% – 18%

Results

edit
}
2024 Montana gubernatorial election[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
327,089 59.6%
Democratic
207,980 37.9%
Libertarian
  • Kaiser Leib
  • Matt Campbell
 13,302 2.4%
Total votes 548,371 100.00%
Turnout
Registered electors
Republican hold

See also

edit

Notes

edit
  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%
  3. ^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 1%
  4. ^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 4%
  5. ^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

References

edit
  1. ^ a b "Montana Governor Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ^ "Busse and Gianforte win their respective primary races". KRTV NEWS Great Falls. June 5, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  4. ^ Kondik, Kyle (September 6, 2024). "Montana Senate Race Moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  5. ^ "Cook Political Report 2024 Governor Race Ratings - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  7. ^ a b Anthony, Michael (January 17, 2024). "Governor Greg Gianforte to seek reelection". KFYR-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  8. ^ Larson, Seaborn (June 13, 2023). "Freshman GOP Rep. announces run for governor". Independent Record.
  9. ^ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex; Eggert, Amanda (April 15, 2024). "Who's running for office in Montana's 2024 election". Montana Free Press. Retrieved May 2, 2024.
  10. ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  11. ^ Stacy, Nicole (May 3, 2024). "SBA Pro-Life America Candidate Fund Endorses Gianforte for Governor". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  12. ^ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/montana-governor-results#republican-primary
  13. ^ Hanson, Amy; Brown, Matthew (September 14, 2023). "Former firearms executive Busse seeks Democratic nomination for Montana governor". Associated Press. Retrieved September 14, 2023.
  14. ^ Silvers, Mara (February 19, 2024). "Busse taps Graybill as running mate in bid for governor's office". Montana Free Press. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  15. ^ a b "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  16. ^ a b Ambarian, Jonathon (March 11, 2024). "Top Montana election races set as candidate filing period closes". KTVH. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  17. ^ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex (November 28, 2023). "Who's running for office in Montana in 2024? Here's a running list". Montana Free Press. Retrieved January 17, 2024. Shawn White Wolf, who has run for a number of different positions in the Helena area in recent years, filed to run for governor in 2023 but has since withdrawn his candidacy.
  18. ^ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/montana-governor-results#democratic-primary
  19. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  20. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  21. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  22. ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  23. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  24. ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
edit
Official campaign websites
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2024_Montana_gubernatorial_election&oldid=1258507468"