Wikipedia

2024 United States presidential election in Montana

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Montana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]

2024 United States presidential election in Montana
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 352,001 231,856
Percentage 58.39% 38.46%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Trump once again won Montana by 19.9%, an increase from his 16.4% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.4% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state.

Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana — a sparsely-populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains — has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.

However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as very competitive despite Sheehy's ultimate victory by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.

Trump became the first Republican to win predominantly-Native American Big Horn County since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.5% victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 50 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Montana Democratic presidential primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Democratic primary, June 4, 2024[2]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 94,587 91.1% 20 20
No preference 9,285 8.9%
Total: 103,872 100.0% 20 5 25

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Republican primary, June 4, 2024[3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 165,678 90.9%
No Preference 16,570 9.1%
Total: 182,248 100.00% 31 0 31

Green primary

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The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.

Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
No Preference 495 100.00% 4
Total: 495 100.00% 4
Source:[4]

General election

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Candidates

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The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:[5]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[6] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe R May 30, 2023
CNalysis[10] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[11] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[13] Solid R September 23, 2024
RCP[14] Likely R June 26, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

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Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[16] November 3–4, 2024 752 (LV) ± 4.0% 59% 39% 2%
Emerson College[17][A] October 23–25, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 39% 3%[b]
59%[c] 40% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[18] October 5–8, 2024 656 (RV) ± 4.0% 57% 39% 4%
656 (LV) 57% 40% 3%
RMG Research[19][B] September 12–19, 2024 491 (LV) ± 4.4% 59% 38% 3%[d]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[20][C] 		August 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 41% 3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
Rasmussen Reports (R)[21][D] August 13–20, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 35% 7%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
Emerson College[22] August 5–6, 2024 1,000 (RV)  3.0% 55% 40% 5%
58%[c] 43% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[16] November 3–4, 2024 752 (LV) ± 4.0% 57% 37% – 2% 0% 4%[e]
New York Times/Siena College[18] October 5–8, 2024 656 (RV) ± 4.0% 56% 38% – 0% 0% 6%
656 (LV) 56% 39% – 0% 0% 5%
Remington Research Group (R)[23][E] September 16–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 39% – 2% – 3%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings[24] September 30 – October 16, 2024 760 (A) ± 3.6% 52% 34% 3% – 1% 2% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[21][D] August 13–20, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.0% 58% 31% 7% 0% 0% 0% 4%
American Pulse Research & Polling[25][F] August 10–12, 2024 538 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 38% 6% 0% 0% 2% 8%
Emerson College[22] August 5–6, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 54% 39% 5% 0% 0% 0% 2%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
RMG Research[26][B] August 6–14, 2024 540 (RV) ± 4.2% 57% 39% 2% 2%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[27] June 29 – July 1, 2024 570 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 36% 8%
Torchlight Strategies (R)[28][G] June 22–26, 2024 649 (RV) ± 3.9% 51% 35% 14%[f]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[29][H] June 11–13, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 57% 37% 6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[30][I] June 3–5, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% 36% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[31][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 59% 34% 7%
Emerson College[32][A] February 26 – March 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 56% 35% 9%
SurveyUSA[33][F] February 12–15, 2024 549 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 29% 20%
Emerson College[34] October 1–4, 2023 447 (RV) ± 4.6% 49% 28% 23%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35] September 16–19, 2023 1,451 (RV) – 54% 37% 9%
J.L. Partners[36] August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) – 51% 39% 10%
Echelon Insights[37] August 31 – September 7, 2022 320 (LV) ± 6.6% 49% 36% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[32][A] February 26 – March 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 28% 8% 1% 1% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35] September 16–19, 2023 1,451 (RV) – 51% 30% 7% 12%
49% 28% 4% 19%[g]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[31][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 50% 35% 15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[31][J] April 13–21, 2024 301 (LV) – 58% 30% 12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
J.L. Partners[36] August 12–17, 2023 741 (LV) – 50% 36% 14%
Echelon Insights[37] August 31 – September 7, 2022 320 (LV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% 23%

Results

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2024 United States presidential election in Montana[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
352,001 58.39%   1.47%
Democratic
231,856 38.46%   2.09%
We the People
11,824 1.96% N/A
Libertarian
4,273 0.71%   1.82%
Green
2,878 0.48% N/A
Total votes 602,832 100.00% N/A

By county

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County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Beaverhead 4,058 70.00% 1,543 26.60% 223 3.40% 2,515 43.40% 5,824
Big Horn 2,188 48.73% 2,094 49.42% 178 3.80% 2,515 43.40% 4,478
Blaine 1,268 47.24% 1,202 44.78% 214 7.98% 66 2.46% 2,684
Broadwater 2,348 74.94% 573 18.29% 212 6.77% 1,775 56.65% 3,133
Carbon 3,748 62.56% 1,828 30.51% 415 6.93% 1,920 32.05% 5,991
Carter 678 86.26% 70 8.91% 38 4.83% 608 77.35% 786
Cascade 19,632 56.79% 12,175 35.22% 2,764 7.99% 7,457 21.57% 34,571
Chouteau 1,679 64.50% 732 28.12% 192 7.38% 947 36.38% 2,603
Custer 3,657 70.53% 1,176 22.68% 352 6.79% 2,481 47.85% 5,185
Daniels 730 75.88% 168 17.46% 64 6.66% 562 58.42% 962
Dawson 3,320 75.30% 787 17.85% 302 6.85% 2,533 57.45% 4,409
Deer Lodge 1,763 41.92% 2,058 48.93% 385 9.15% -295 -7.01% 4,206
Fallon 1,279 86.19% 154 10.38% 51 3.43% 1,125 75.81% 1,484
Fergus 4,269 73.10% 1,202 20.58% 369 6.32% 3,067 52.52% 5,840
Flathead 30,240 63.67% 13,293 27.99% 3,963 8.34% 16,947 35.68% 47,496
Gallatin 23,802 44.23% 24,246 45.05% 5,771 10.72% -444 -0.82% 53,819
Garfield 653 90.95% 34 4.74% 31 4.31% 619 86.21% 718
Glacier 1,620 31.92% 3,121 61.50% 334 6.58% -1,501 -29.58% 5,075
Golden Valley 365 77.00% 71 14.98% 38 8.02% 294 62.02% 474
Granite 1,192 67.08% 472 26.56% 113 6.36% 720 40.52% 1,777
Hill 3,478 53.96% 2,371 36.79% 596 9.25% 1,107 17.17% 6,445
Jefferson 4,177 62.21% 1,998 29.76% 539 8.03% 2,179 32.45% 6,714
Judith Basin 872 72.19% 235 19.45% 101 8.36% 637 52.74% 1,208
Lake 7,530 57.13% 4,776 36.23% 875 6.64% 2,754 20.90% 13,181
Lewis and Clark 16,895 47.87% 14,478 41.02% 3,923 11.11% 2,417 6.85% 35,296
Liberty 698 72.63% 206 21.44% 57 5.93% 492 51.19% 961
Lincoln 6,729 72.12% 2,041 21.88% 560 6.00% 4,688 50.24% 9,330
Madison 3,297 69.51% 1,180 24.88% 266 5.61% 2,117 44.63% 4,743
McCone 862 78.72% 154 14.06% 79 7.22% 708 64.66% 1,095
Meagher 729 74.62% 193 19.75% 55 5.63% 536 54.87% 977
Mineral 1,330 66.10% 519 25.80% 163 8.10% 811 40.30% 2,012
Missoula 22,250 36.64% 31,543 51.95% 6,929 11.41% -9,293 -15.31% 60,722
Musselshell 1,967 80.58% 332 13.60% 142 5.82% 1,635 66.98% 2,441
Park 4,980 53.21% 3,595 38.41% 784 8.38% 1,385 14.80% 9,359
Petroleum 278 86.34% 30 9.32% 14 4.34% 248 77.02% 322
Phillips 1,723 79.36% 318 14.65% 130 5.99% 1,405 64.71% 2,171
Pondera 1,799 66.07% 738 27.10% 186 6.83% 1,061 38.97% 2,723
Powder River 884 83.95% 127 12.06% 42 3.99% 757 71.89% 1,053
Powell 2,029 72.62% 551 19.72% 214 7.66% 1,478 52.90% 2,794
Prairie 556 80.70% 100 14.51% 33 4.79% 456 66.19% 689
Ravalli 14,810 65.66% 6,223 27.59% 1,523 6.75% 8,587 38.07% 22,556
Richland 3,908 80.23% 671 13.78% 292 5.99% 3,237 66.45% 4,871
Roosevelt 1,797 49.21% 1,560 42.72% 295 8.07% 237 6.49% 3,652
Rosebud 2,253 65.25% 987 28.58% 213 6.17% 1,266 36.67% 3,453
Sanders 4,286 72.00% 1,218 20.46% 449 7.54% 3,068 51.54% 5,953
Sheridan 1,241 67.63% 477 25.99% 117 6.38% 764 41.64% 1,835
Silver Bow 6,376 38.76% 8,619 52.39% 1,457 8.85% -2,243 -13.63% 16,452
Stillwater 3,661 75.13% 908 18.63% 304 6.24% 2,753 56.50% 4,873
Sweet Grass 1,595 75.70% 402 19.08% 110 5.22% 1,193 56.62% 2,107
Teton 2,170 68.07% 808 25.35% 210 6.58% 1,362 42.72% 3,188
Toole 1,497 73.49% 402 19.73% 138 6.78% 1,095 53.76% 2,037
Treasure 351 79.23% 59 13.32% 33 7.45% 292 65.91% 443
Valley 2,698 69.29% 886 22.75% 310 7.96% 1,812 46.54% 3,894
Wheatland 702 74.21% 179 18.92% 65 6.87% 523 55.29% 946
Wibaux 463 85.58% 55 10.17% 23 4.25% 408 75.41% 541
Yellowstone 40,920 58.05% 22,171 31.45% 7,395 10.50% 18,749 26.60% 70,486
Totals 279,240 55.65% 177,709 35.41% 44,873 8.94% 101,531 20.24% 501,822
 
 
 
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

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Trump won both congressional districts.[39]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 54% 43% Ryan Zinke
2nd 63% 34% Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
Troy Downing (119th Congress)

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  5. ^ "Other" with 3%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  7. ^ Joe Manchin with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  3. ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
  7. ^ Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  9. ^ Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
  10. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  3. ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 Primary Election - June 4, 2024". Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  5. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 1, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ^ a b "Atlas Poll - US Key States - November 4, 2024" (PDF). AtlasIntel. November 4, 2024.
  17. ^ "October 2024 Montana Poll: Sheehy 50%, Tester 46%". Emerson College. October 27, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  18. ^ a b Goldmacher, Shane (October 10, 2024). "Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows". The New York Times.
  19. ^ "Montana: Trump 59% Harris 38%". Napolitan Institute. September 23, 2024.
  20. ^ Bridges, Kate (September 5, 2024). "Sheehy Leads Tester by 16 Points in Montana Senate Race". AARP. doi:10.26419/res.00813.034.
  21. ^ a b "Toplines - NUSA August 2024 Montana". Rasmussen Reports. August 30, 2024.
  22. ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: Trump 55%, Harris 40%". Emerson College Polling. August 8, 2024.
  23. ^ "Polling data on Biden-Harris gas car ban and EV mandate policies" (PDF). American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers. October 1, 2024.
  24. ^ "Mountain States Poll - October 2024" (PDF). Montana State University Billings. October 30, 2024.
  25. ^ "Poll shows strong Montana support for Trump over Harris". KULR8. August 14, 2024.
  26. ^ "Montana Senate: Tester 49% Sheehy 44%". Napolitan Institute. August 15, 2024.
  27. ^ Pearce, Tim (July 3, 2024). "Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate". The Daily Wire.
  28. ^ Rogers, John (June 27, 2024). "June 2024 Survey of Likely Montana Voters". X.
  29. ^ "Montana Statewide Poll" (PDF). Public Opinion Strategies. June 13, 2024.
  30. ^ Fabrizio, Tony; Tunis, Travis (June 17, 2024). "MONTANA WANTS TO VOTE GOP – SHEEHY LEADS TESTER". Politico.
  31. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  32. ^ a b "Montana 2024 Poll: U.S. Senate Tester 44%, Sheehy 42%". Emerson College Polling. March 6, 2024.
  33. ^ Lewis, Megan (February 19, 2024). "Poll shows Trump winning Montana over Biden with more support than 2020". Montana Right Now.
  34. ^ "Montana 2024 Poll: Democratic Senator Jon Tester Holds Narrow Lead Over Republican Challenger Tim Sheehy". Emerson College Polling. October 17, 2023.
  35. ^ a b "Pulse of the Nation Report - Voter Attitudes and Concerns Driven by High Costs" (PDF). Future Majority. October 11, 2023.
  36. ^ a b "Montana - Prepared by J.L. Partners" (PDF). Squarespace. August 31, 2023.
  37. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  38. ^ "2024 General Election - November 5, 2024". Secretary of State of Montana. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 23, 2024.
  39. ^ https://x.com/TheDrewSav/status/1855335674708213793
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