Wikipedia

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

For related races, see 2024 United States House of Representatives elections.

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the State of Nebraska, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The Primary elections were held on May 14, 2024.

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
All 3 Nebraska seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 3 0
Seats won 3 0
Seat change Steady Steady
Results by district

District 1

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2024 Nebraska's 1st congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Mike Flood Carol Blood
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 184,252 121,523
Percentage 60.3% 39.7%
 
County results
Flood:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
U.S. Representative before election

Mike Flood
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mike Flood
Republican

See also: Nebraska's 1st congressional district

The 1st district is located in eastern Nebraska surrounding Omaha and its suburbs, taking in Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Norfolk. The incumbent is Republican Mike Flood, who was re-elected with 57.9% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Michael Connely, education advisor and candidate for governor in 2022[3]

Endorsements

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Mike Flood
Organizations

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Michael Connely (R) $0 $0 $0
Mike Flood (R) $1,279,065 $928,355 $357,582
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Results

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Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Flood (incumbent) 56,846 81.52%
Republican Michael Connely 12,884 18.48%
Total votes 69,730 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Carol Blood
State legislators
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Carol Blood (D) $36,076 $20,647 $15,428
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Results

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Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Carol Blood 34,888 100.00%
Total votes 34,888 100.00%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Solid R April 29, 2024
Inside Elections[16] Solid R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[18] Safe R October 5, 2023
CNalysis[19] Solid R November 16, 2023

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Flood (R) 		Carol
Blood (D) 		Undecided
YouGov[A] October 21–28, 2024 406 (LV) – 53% 39% 8%[b]

Results

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Nebraska's 1st congressional district, 2024
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Flood (incumbent)
Democratic Carol Blood
Total votes

District 2

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2024 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Don Bacon Tony Vargas
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 160,198 154,369
Percentage 50.9% 49.1%
 
County results
Bacon:      60–70%      70–80%
Vargas:      50–60%
U.S. Representative before election

Don Bacon
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Don Bacon
Republican

See also: Nebraska's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district covers the Omaha metropolitan area, including all of Douglas County, home to the city of Omaha, Saunders County, and suburban parts of northern Sarpy County, including La Vista and Papillon. The incumbent is Republican Don Bacon, who was re-elected with 51.3% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrawn

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  • Michael Connely, education advisor and candidate for governor in 2022 (endorsed Frei, switched to the 1st district)[3]

Declined

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  • Robert Anthony, real estate broker (endorsed Frei)[22]

Endorsements

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Don Bacon
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
  • 26 state senators[28]
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions
Dan Frei
Political parties

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Don Bacon (R) $3,465,982 $1,929,712 $1,727,525
Dan Frei (R) $125,759 $84,491 $41,268
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Results

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Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Don Bacon (incumbent) 35,748 61.96%
Republican Dan Frei 21,946 38.04%
Total votes 57,694 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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Endorsements

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Tony Vargas
Statewide officials
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tony Vargas (D) $2,407,207 $819,341 $1,641,255
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Results

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Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tony Vargas 39,038 100.00%
Total votes 39,038 100.00%

Independents

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Declined

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General election

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Debates and forums

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2024 Nebraska 2nd congressional district debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Bacon Vargas
1[58] October 4, 2024 WOWT Brian Mastre [59] P P
2[60] October 8, 2024 Nebraska Public Media Aaron Sanderford [61] P P
3[62] October 13, 2024 KETV Rob McCartney [63] P P

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Lean D (flip) November 1, 2024
Inside Elections[16] Tilt D (flip) October 10, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Lean D (flip) September 30, 2024
Elections Daily[18] Lean D (flip) October 10, 2024
CNalysis[19] Tilt D (flip) October 7, 2024
Roll Call[64] Tilt D (flip) October 15, 2024
Fox News[65] Tossup September 25, 2024
DDHQ[66] Lean D (flip) November 4, 2024
FiveThirtyEight[67] Lean D (flip) October 8, 2024
The Economist[68] Lean D (flip) October 10, 2024

Polling

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Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Don
Bacon (R) 		Tony
Vargas (D) 		Undecided
[c] 		Margin
The Hill/DDHQ through October 28, 2024 October 30, 2024 44.9% 50.2% 4.9% Vargas +5.3%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Don
Bacon (R) 		Tony
Vargas (D) 		Undecided
YouGov[A] October 21–28, 2024 389 (LV) ± 6.2% 46% 50% 4%[d]
The New York Times/Siena College September 24–26, 2024 663 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 49% 6%
663 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 48% 8%
SSRS[B] September 20-25, 2024 749 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 50% 6%
September 19-23, 2024 Republican efforts to move Nebraska to a winner-take-all electoral vote system for President[69][70]
Change Research (D)[C] September 16-23, 2024 548 (LV) – 41% 49% 10%
Global Strategy Group[D] September 9-13, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 49% 6%
SurveyUSA[E] August 23–27, 2024 507 (RV) ± 5.6% 40% 46% 14%
Change Research (D)[C] August 10–17, 2024 2,429 (V) ± 2.2% 43% 48% 9%
Remington Research Group (R) August 14–17, 2024 656 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 44% 10%
GQR (D)[F] July 16–21, 2024 400 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Torchlight Strategies (R)[G] July 8–11, 2024 300 (LV) ± 6.3% 46% 43% 11%
Global Strategy Group (D)[D] June 25–30, 2024 700 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% 9%
Global Strategy Group (D)[D] February 20–25, 2024 500 (A) ± 4.4% 43% 46% 11%

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Don Bacon (R) $5,630,302 $3,638,458 $2,006,079
Tony Vargas (D) $6,189,421 $4,718,757 $1,524,052
Source: Federal Election Commission[39]

Results

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Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 2024
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Don Bacon (incumbent) 160,198 50.93
Democratic Tony Vargas 154,369 49.07
Total votes 314,567 100.00
Republican hold

District 3

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2024 Nebraska's 3rd congressional district election
 
← 2022
2026 →
     
Nominee Adrian Smith Daniel Ebers
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 243,483 59,287
Percentage 80.4% 19.6%
 
County results
Smith:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. Representative before election

Adrian Smith
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Adrian Smith
Republican

See also: Nebraska's 3rd congressional district

The 3rd district covers most of the rural central and western part of the state, and includes Grand Island, Kearney, Hastings, North Platte, Alliance, and Scottsbluff. The incumbent is Republican Adrian Smith, who was re-elected with 78.3% of the vote in 2022.[1]

Republican primary

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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  • Robert McCuiston, former mayor of Tamora[73]
  • John Walz, mechanical engineer[74]

Endorsements

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Adrian Smith
Organizations
John Walz
Political parties

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Adrian Smith (R) $1,236,502 $945,970 $1,205,069
John Walz (R) $19,932 $18,380 $1,570
Source: Federal Election Commission[76]

Results

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Primary results by county:
  Smith
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Adrian Smith (incumbent) 68,056 74.16%
Republican John Walz 17,060 18.59%
Republican Robert McCuiston 6,654 7.25%
Total votes 91,770 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Nominee

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  • Daniel Ebers, hotel manager[73]

Eliminated in primary

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  • David Else, farmer and nominee for this district in 2022[73]

Fundraising

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Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
David Else (D) $0 $0 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[76]

Results

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Primary results by county:
  Ebers
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Else
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Tie
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Daniel Ebers 7,841 52.90%
Democratic David Else 6,982 47.10%
Total votes 14,823 100.00%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Solid R April 29, 2024
Inside Elections[16] Solid R March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[18] Safe R October 5, 2023
CNalysis[19] Solid R November 16, 2023

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Adrian
Smith (R) 		Daniel
Ebers (D) 		Undecided
YouGov[A] October 21–28, 2024 404 (LV) – 68% 22% 10%[e]

Results

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Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, 2024
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Adrian Smith (incumbent) 243,483 80.42
Democratic Daniel Ebers 59,287 19.58
Total votes 302,770 100.00
Republican hold

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone Else" with 1%
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ "Someone Else" with 1%
  5. ^ "Someone Else" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Economist
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by CNN
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Future Majority PAC, a Democratic group[71]
  4. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Vargas's campaign
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Split Ticket
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by House Majority PAC, a Democratic group
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of U.S. Senator Deb Fischer, who has endorsed Bacon

References

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  1. ^ a b c "2022 National House Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  2. ^ Stoddard, Martha (January 24, 2024). "Republican Mike Flood files for reelection to 1st District congressional seat". Omaha World-Herald. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  3. ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (March 1, 2024). "Republican challenger switches House races to clear NE02 GOP primary field for Bacon vs. Frei". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
  4. ^ a b c "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  5. ^ a b c NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Nebraska". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  6. ^ a b c "Nebraska Endorsements". www.nrlvictoryfund.org. National Right to Life Victory Fund. Retrieved July 18, 2024.
  7. ^ "Mike Flood Earns Nebraska Farm Bureau Endorsement for First Congressional District". KRVN 880 – KRVN 93.1 – KAMI. February 18, 2024. Retrieved February 18, 2024.
  8. ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Rep. Mike Flood for Nebraska's 1st Congressional District". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. August 21, 2024.
  9. ^ a b "2024 Election United States House - Nebraska 1st". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 3, 2024.
  10. ^ a b c d e f "Unofficial Results: Primary Election - May 14, 2024". Secretary of State of Nebraska. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  11. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (January 23, 2024). "Nebraska State Sen. Carol Blood poised to run against Rep. Mike Flood for Congress". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved January 23, 2024.
  12. ^ Wegley, Andrew (January 27, 2024). "Carol Blood declares 'it's about time for a win' as she launches run for Congress". JournalStar.com. The Lincoln Journal Star.
  13. ^ "Vote Mama PAC | Candidates". Vote Mama PAC. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  14. ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  15. ^ a b c "2024 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
  16. ^ a b c "House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 20, 2024.
  17. ^ a b c "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  18. ^ a b c "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 17, 2023.
  19. ^ a b c "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  20. ^ Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  21. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (January 21, 2024). "Dan Frei makes it official, files to challenge Rep. Don Bacon in 2nd District". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  22. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (January 5, 2024). "U.S. Rep. Don Bacon likely to face a challenger on his right". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  23. ^ Staff, Bolton PAC (February 27, 2024). "Ambassador John Bolton Endorses Don Bacon for U.S. House of Representatives in Nebraska's Second District". John Bolton PAC. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
  24. ^ Carney, Jordain (October 28, 2024). "A vulnerable House Republican's delicate dance with Trump". Politico. Retrieved October 29, 2024.
  25. ^ a b c Alfaro, Mariana; Caldwell, Leigh Ann (May 14, 2024). "Nebraska GOP congressman survives primary challenge from the right". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  26. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (December 19, 2023). "House Speaker Mike Johnson visits Omaha, endorses Rep. Don Bacon". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved December 19, 2023.
  27. ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (April 23, 2024). "Bacon pushes back on county GOP endorsement talk with some of his own". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  28. ^ Wegley, Andrew (February 1, 2024). "In break with Nebraska GOP, group of Republican state senators endorse federal incumbents". JournalStar.com. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  29. ^ "Don Bacon picks up Jean Stothert's endorsement".
  30. ^ "Democrat Ann Ashford endorses GOP U.S. Rep. Don Bacon in 2nd District". September 30, 2024.
  31. ^ "BIPAC Action Fund Releases Second Round of 2024 Endorsements". bipacaction.com. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  32. ^ America, Pro Israel (January 9, 2024). "Pro-Israel America Re-Launches with New Mission, Leadership, and Endorsements". Pro Israel America. Retrieved January 31, 2024.
  33. ^ "RJC Announces 11 House Endorsements". Republican Jewish Coalition. Retrieved December 24, 2023.
  34. ^ "Endorsements". With Honor Fund II. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  35. ^ "U.S. Chamber Endorses Rep. Don Bacon for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District". U.S. Chamber of Commerce. August 21, 2024.
  36. ^ "AFA Endorsed Candidates for 2024 Election". Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  37. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (November 27, 2023). "U.S. Rep. Don Bacon gets expected Omaha police union endorsement, but early". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved November 28, 2023.
  38. ^ a b Sanderford, Aaron (January 27, 2024). "Nebraska GOP fight with delegation spills over into its endorsements". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
  39. ^ a b c "2024 Election United States House - Nebraska 2nd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  40. ^ Sanderford, Aaron (July 5, 2023). "State Sen. Tony Vargas announces 2024 run at Rep. Don Bacon in Nebraska's 2nd District". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved July 5, 2023.
  41. ^ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  42. ^ "CHC BOLD PAC Endorses Tony Vargas in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District". www.boldpac.com. July 5, 2023. Retrieved July 5, 2023.
  43. ^ "Democrats launch their first slate of challengers in the fight for the House majority". NBC News. January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  44. ^ Schneider, Elena (February 8, 2024). "Pro-Israel group wades into several contested Democratic primaries". Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  45. ^ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Slate of Congressional Candidates". End Citizens United. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 23, 2024.
  46. ^ "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Announces New Round of Federal Endorsements". Everytown for Gun Safety. September 26, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2024.
  47. ^ "Tony Vargas". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 13, 2023.
  48. ^ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
  49. ^ "Latino Victory Fund Endorses Tony Vargas for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District". Latino Victory. October 27, 2023. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  50. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New U.S. House Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  51. ^ "NewDem Action Fund Endorses Tony Vargas for Nebraska's Second Congressional District". NewDem Action Fund. July 6, 2023. Retrieved July 6, 2023.
  52. ^ "New Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsements: We Can Flip The House By Electing These Reproductive Rights Champions in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  53. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of Challengers in Key U.S. House Districts". Reproductive Freedom for All. March 13, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  54. ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  55. ^ "Make a high-impact donation—without all the usual drama". Swing Left.
  56. ^ "Nebraska". UAW Endorsements. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  57. ^ Senator Megan Hunt [@NebraskaMegan] (March 23, 2023). "This is very flattering, but I would never allow the Governor of Nebraska to appoint my replacement in the Legislature. There's no way I could do that to my district! But thanks so much for the encouragement — I'm right where I need to be. ❤️" (Tweet). Retrieved May 7, 2024 – via Twitter.
  58. ^ "Don Bacon, Tony Vargas debate abortion ahead of 2024 Election". WOWT. Retrieved October 8, 2024.
  59. ^ WOWT
  60. ^ "Bacon and Vargas join 2nd District debate on Nebraska Public Media". Nebraska Examiner. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  61. ^ Nebraska Public Media
  62. ^ "KETV's Commitment 2024 to hold town hall and debate with candidates in October". KETV.
  63. ^ KETV
  64. ^ Gonzales, Nathan L. (October 15, 2024). "Rating Changes: 8 in the House, 2 in the Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved October 15, 2024.
  65. ^ Numa, Rémy (September 25, 2024). "Fox News Power Rankings: Harris ticks up and Senate Republicans take charge". Fox News. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  66. ^ Staff, DDHQ (September 28, 2024). "2024 House Forecast". DDHQ. Retrieved September 28, 2024.
  67. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (October 10, 2024). "2024 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 10, 2024.
  68. ^ "The Economist's 2024 House Election forecast". The Economist. Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  69. ^ Zeleny, Jeff (September 21, 2024). "Trump presses to change Nebraska election law, in fight for a sole electoral vote | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved September 22, 2024.
  70. ^ "How One Man's Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election". The New York Times. September 20, 2024.
  71. ^ Severns, Maggie (April 29, 2019). "Top Dem strategists launch secret-money group to rebrand party". Politico. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
  72. ^ Allen, Ashanti (January 9, 2024). "Adrian Smith files for re-election for Nebraska's Third Congressional District". KNOP-TV. Retrieved January 10, 2024.
  73. ^ a b c "Nebraska Statewide Candidate List". Nebraska Secretary of State. January 5, 2024.
  74. ^ "Hastings man running against Adrian Smith for congress". KSNB-TV. December 27, 2023. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
  75. ^ "Mike Flood Earns Nebraska Farm Bureau Endorsement for First Congressional District". York's Max Country 104.9. February 18, 2024. Retrieved February 19, 2024.
  76. ^ a b "2024 Election United States House - Nebraska 3rd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
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Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates
Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates
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