The 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Oregon voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oregon has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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Democrats have won Oregon in every presidential election starting in 1988, and have consistently done so by double digits starting in 2008. Oregon is part of the Democratic-leaning West Coast, and is predicted to go comfortably for the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024.[2]
Primary elections
editRepublican primary
editThe Oregon Republican primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky caucuses.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 294,744 | 91.6% | 31 | 31 | |
| Write-in votes | 27,209 | 8.5% | |||
| Total: | 321,983 | 100.0% | 31 | 31 | |
Democratic primary
editThe Oregon Democratic primary was held on May 21, 2024, the same date as the Kentucky primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 397,702 | 87.1% | 66 | 66 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 33,603 | 7.4% | |||
| Write-in votes | 25,135 | 5.5% | |||
| Total: | 456,440 | 100.0% | 66 | 12 | 78 |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[5] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[6] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] | Likely D | June 8, 2024 |
| CNalysis[9] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[10] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[11] | Likely D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[12] | Likely D | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[13] | Likely D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
edit- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffman Research | July 24–26, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 40% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | October 31 – November 1, 2022 | 975 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Emerson College | September 30 – October 1, 2022 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
See also
editNotes
editReferences
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
- ^ "Oregon Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
- ^ "Oregon Presidential Primary". The AP. June 4, 2024. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.