Epagogix is a UK-based company founded in 2003 that uses neural networks and analytical software to predict which movies will provide a good possibility of return on investments and which movie scripts or plots will be successful. It was featured in an article by Malcolm Gladwell in The New Yorker.[1] It has also been featured in Super Crunchers, Ian Ayres' book about number analysis, in CIO magazine[2][3] and in Kevin Slavin's TED talk.[4]
The Epagogix system uses a "computer enhanced algorithm" which uses data from an archive of films which analysts have broken down into hundreds of categories[5] or plot points, such as "love scene" or "car chase". A film's script is assigned scores for these categories by an Epagogix employee, and the scores fed into a computer algorithm which estimates how much that film might take at the box office, plus or minus around ten per cent. The software may also recommend script changes.[6]
As part of a reported testing process, the Epagogix software predicted that the $50 million 2007 film Lucky You would "bomb" and take only $7 million. Upon release, the film took $6 million.[3] The company also interpreted the software's analysis of Casablanca as considering it "gloomy, downbeat and too long".[5]
References
edit- ^ Gladwell, Malcolm (16 October 2006). "The Formula". The New Yorker. Retrieved 18 July 2010.
- ^ Ayres, Ian. Super Crunchers. Bantam, 2007. 145-147.
- ^ a b Wailgum, Thomas (16 January 2009). "Prediction Software: The New Science Behind the Art of Making Hit Movies". CIO. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
- ^ Slavin, Kevin (July 2011). "Kevin Slavin: How algorithms shape our world". TEDGlobal. Retrieved 29 July 2011.
- ^ a b Rowley, Tom (2 January 2014). "The geeks who are directing Hollywood". Retrieved 23 June 2018.
- ^ "What's behind the future of hit movies? An algorithm". 19 July 2013. Retrieved 23 June 2018.
External links
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