Wikipedia

Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.[1]

Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.[2] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand (1News), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote

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Graphical summary

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The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

 
Summary of poll results given below from the election result 23 September 2017. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.625). Left and right-hand axis markers indicate the actual poll results from the 2017 and 2020 elections respectively.
 
Summary of poll results for parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and that are routinely included by polling companies. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.625). Left and right-hand axis markers indicate the actual poll results from the 2017 and 2020 elections respectively.

Individual polls

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For further events related to the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand, see Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green (GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP), Māori (MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and Advance New Zealand (ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A 25.6 50.0 2.6 7.9 7.6 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 24.4
8–15 Oct 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 31.1 45.8 3.5 6.3 7.4 1.3 0.6 1.7 0.3 14.7
10–14 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1005 31 46 2.6 8 8 1.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 15
3–7 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 32 47 2.4 6 8 1.8 0.2 1.3 0.9 15
3 Oct 2020 Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission estimates 60% of voters will cast their vote before election day.[3]
Sep 2020 Roy Morgan Research 911 28.5 47.5 2.5 9.5 7.0 1.5 0.5 – – 19
23–27 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1005 33 47 1.4 7 8 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.6 14
16–23 Sep 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 29.6 50.1 1.9 6.5 6.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 – 20.5
17–21 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 31 48 2.4 6 7 1.1 0.9 1.6 0.8 17
Aug 2020 Roy Morgan Research 897 28.5 48.0 2.5 11.5 6.0 1.0 0.5 – – 19.5
17 Aug 2020 Jacinda Ardern announces the election is postponed to 17 October 2020, over concerns relating to a recent rise in cases of COVID-19.[1]
Jul 2020 Roy Morgan Research 899 26.5 53.5 1.5 8 6.5 1.5 0.5 – N/A 27
25–29 Jul 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1004 32 53 2 5 4.8 0.1 1 1.2 N/A 21
16–24 Jul 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 25.1 60.9 2.0 5.7 3.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 N/A 35.8
14 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
Jun 2020 Roy Morgan Research 879 27 54.5 1.5 9 5 1.5 1 – N/A 27.5
20–24 Jun 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 38 50 1.8 6 3.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 N/A 12
27 Apr – 24 May 2020 Roy Morgan Research 894 26.5 56.5 2.5 7 3.5 1 1.5 – N/A 30
22 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party, replacing Simon Bridges.
16–20 May 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1003 29 59 2.9 4.7 2.2 0.5 1.2 0.4 N/A 30
8–16 May 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 30.6 56.5 2.7 5.5 1.8 0.1 0.9 1.0 N/A 25.9
14 May 2020 2020 Budget is delivered.
Apr 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 30.5 55 2.5 7 2.5 – – – N/A 24.5
Mar 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 37 42.5 3 11.5 3.5 – – – N/A 5.5
25 March 2020 Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Feb 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 37 40.5 5 10.5 3.5 – – – N/A 3.5
8–12 Feb 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1004 46 41 3.3 5 1.7 0.1 1.1 0.8 N/A 5
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 43.3 42.5 3.6 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 N/A 0.8
Jan 2020 Roy Morgan Research – 40 40 2.5 10.5 3 – – – N/A Tie
28 Jan 2020 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020.
23–27 Nov 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 46 39 4.3 7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 N/A 7
7–11 Nov 2019 Stuff–YouGov 1005 38 41 8 8 2 1 1 – N/A 3
5–9 Oct 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 47 40 4.2 7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 N/A 7
2–9 Oct 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 43.9 41.6 4.0 6.3 1.4 1.1 0.7 1 N/A 2.3
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1003 45 43 3.3 6 1 0.5 1.1 0.8 N/A 2
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1002 44 42 5 6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 N/A 2
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 37.4 50.8 2.8 6.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 1 N/A 13.4
30 May 2019 The 2019 Budget is delivered.
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1009 40 48 4.3 6 0.7 – 0.5 0.4 N/A 8
15–23 Mar 2019 Business NZ–Reid Research 1000 41.3 49.6 2.3 3.9 – – – – N/A 8.3
15 Mar 2019 Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 42 45 3 6 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 N/A 3
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 41.6 47.5 2.9 5.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 N/A 5.9
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1008 46 43 4 5 0.6 0.3 0.9 – N/A 3
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1006 43 45 5 7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 N/A 2
2 Aug 2018 Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 45 42 5 6 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 N/A 3
21 Jun 2018 Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1000[4] 45.1 42.6 2.4 5.7 0.2 1.6 0.9 1.1 N/A 2.5
19–23 May 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 45 43 4.2 5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 N/A 2
17 May 2018 The 2018 Budget is delivered.
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 44 43 5 6 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.2 N/A 1
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[5]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[6]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 43 48 2.6 5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 N/A 5
13 Feb 2018 Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.[7]
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1000 44.5 42.3 3.8 6 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 N/A 2.2
2–28 Jan 2018 Roy Morgan Research 1000 39 42.5 6 9 0.5 1.5 1 – N/A 3.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017 Roy Morgan Research – 40.5 37 8 10 0.5 – – – N/A 3.5
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1007 46 39 5 7 0.1 1.2 0.9 – N/A 7
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 40.5 39.5 5 10 0.5 2 1.5 – N/A 1
26 Oct 2017 Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.[8]
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 46 31 6.5 11 0.5 2 1.5 – N/A 15
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[9] N/A 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 2.4 1.2 0.2 N/A 7.6
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP ANZ Lead

UMR and Curia polls

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These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT Lead
13 Oct 2020 UMR Research 29 50 2.7 6 7 21
25 Aug – 2 Sep 2020 UMR Research 29 53 3.9 3.2 6.2 24
12 Aug 2020 UMR Research 28 52 5.1 5.4 5.9 24
28 Jul 2020 Curia 36 47 3 6 3 11
30 Jun 2020 Curia 34 55 – – – 21
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research 30 54 5 4 – 24
21–27 April 2020 UMR Research 29 55 6 5 3 26
14 April 2020 Curia 31 49 6 9 5 18
8 April 2020 UMR Research 35 49 5 5 2 14
17 Feb 2020 UMR Research 38 42 6 9 3 4
2 Feb 2020 Curia 39 41 7 7 2 2
23 Jul 2019 UMR Research 38 42 – 9 – 4
9 Nov 2018 UMR Research 37 46 – – – 9
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[9] 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 7.5

Preferred prime minister

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Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

 
Graph of preferred prime minister polling before the 2020 election. Only includes people who polled above 1% at least once. Smoothing is set to span 45%.
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Judith Collins Winston Peters James Shaw Marama Davidson David Seymour Leighton Baker Billy Te Kahika Todd Muller Simon Bridges Bill English Lead
8–15 Oct 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 52.6 18.4 – – – – – – – – – 34.2
10–14 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,005 55 20 1 0.4 0.1 3 0.4 0.4 – 0.4 – 35
3–7 Oct 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 50 23 1 0.1 0.5 2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 27
23–27 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,005 54 23 1 0.1 0.2 2 0.1 0.4 – 0.1 0.1 31
16–23 Sep 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 53.2 17.7 – – – – – – – – – 35.5
17–21 Sep 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 54 18 2 0.1 – 2 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 0.3 36
25–29 Jul 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 54 20 1 0.1 0.1 1 0.1 0.7 0.2 – – 34
16–24 Jul 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 62 14.6 – – – – – – – – – 47.4
14 Jul 2020 Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
20–24 Jun 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 54 2 2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 – 13 0.4 0.2 41
26 May – 1 Jun 2020 UMR Research – 65 – – – – – – – 13 – – 52
22 May 2020 Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party.
16–20 May 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,003 63 3 1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 – 0.2 5 0.1 58
8–16 May 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 59.5 3.1 – – – – – – – 4.5 – 51
21–27 Apr 2020 UMR Research – 65 7 3 – – – – – – 7 – 58
8–12 Feb 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 42 3 3 0.1 0.5 0.8 – – – 11 0.2 31
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 38.7 – – – – – – – – 10.6 – 28.1
23–27 Nov 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 36 4 3 0.3 – 0.6 – – – 10 – 26
5–9 Oct 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 38 5 4 0.3 0.3 0.4 – – 0.2 9 0.1 29
2–9 Oct 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 38.4 5.2 – – – – – – – 6.7 – 31.7
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,003 41 6 2 – 0.1 0.4 – – 0.1 6 0.2 35
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,002 45 6 5 0.1 – 0.5 – – – 5 0.1 39
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 49 7.1 – – – – – – – 4.2 – 41.9
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 51 5 3 0.2 – 0.2 – – – 5 0.3 46
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 44 6 3 0.2 – 0.1 – – – 6 0.4 38
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 41.8 6.2 – – – – – – – 5.0 – 35.6
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,008 39 6 4 0.1 – 0.1 – – – 7 0.4 32
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 42 5 4 0.1 0.1 – – – – 7 1 35
2 Aug 2018 Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 40 2 5 0.3 0.3 0.2 – – – 10 0.9 30
21 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000[10] 40.2 3.7 4.6 – – – – – – 9 4.2 31.2
19–23 May 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 2 4 0.2 – 0.1 – – – 12 0.9 29
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 2 5 – – 0.3 – – – 10 2 27
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.[5]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.[6]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 0.4 4 0.4 – 0.1 – – – 1 20 21
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000[4] 37.9 0.2 5.7 0.1 – – – – – 0.5 25.7 12.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 0.7 5 0.4 – – – – – 0.3 28 9

Government approval rating

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Government approval rating prior to the 2020 election. No polling was conducted in 2018 or 2019.
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
Sep 2020 Roy Morgan Research 911 70.5 19.5 10 51
Aug 2020 Roy Morgan Research 897 71 19 10 52
Jul 2020 Roy Morgan Research 899 71.5 19 9.5 52.5
Jun 2020 Roy Morgan Research 879 72 18.5 9.5 53.5
May 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 76 17.5 6.5 58.5
Apr 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 77 14 9 63
Mar 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 60.5 25.5 14 35
Feb 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 59 27 14 32
Jan 2020 Roy Morgan Research 900 66.5 20 12.5 46.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017 Roy Morgan Research 68 18 14 50
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,007 51 26 23 25
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 66.5 20 13.5 46.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 Horizon Research 1,068 49 24 28 21
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 58.5 27.5 14 31

Electorate polling

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Auckland Central

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF TOP ACT SNZ TEA IND
Helen White Emma Mellow Nikki Kaye Chlöe Swarbrick Denise Roche Jenny Marcroft Frank Edwards Tuariki Delamere Mika Haka Felix Poole Brooke van Velden Vernon Tava Dominic Hoffman Dervan Joshua Love
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 35 30 N/A 26 N/A 1 N/A — N/A 4 N/A 2 1 0.4
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 42.3 26.6 N/A 24.2 N/A 2.2 N/A 1.0 N/A 0.9 N/A — — —
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 39.82 N/A 45.25 N/A 9.72 N/A 1.98 N/A 2.33 N/A 0.52 N/A N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN ACT NZF TOP SNZ VNZ SCP
24–30 Sep 2020 Q+A Colmar Brunton 47 28 13 6 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.3
September 2020 Newshub Nation–Reid Research 56.2 23.1 12.1 3.9 1.6 1.4 — — —
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 37.71 39.15 13.87 1.05 3.87 3.14 N/A N/A 0.01

East Coast

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN
Kiri Allan Tania Tapsell Anne Tolley Meredith
Akuhata-Brown		 Gareth Hughes
22–24 Sep 2020 Community Engagement 40.5 35 N/A 4.9 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 33.51 N/A 46.18 N/A 7.13
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN NZF
22–24 Sep 2020 Community Engagement 50 31 4.4 4.2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 36.62 44.03 4.58 9.89

Northland

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation NAT LAB NZF GRN NCP ACT
Matt King Willow-Jean Prime Shane Jones Winston Peters Darleen Tana Hoff-Nielsen Peter Hughes Mel Taylor Mark Cameron Craig Nelson
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020 Q+A–Colmar Brunton 46 31 15 N/A 3 N/A 2 1 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 38.30 21.61 N/A 34.81 N/A 4.51 0.46 N/A 0.30
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT ACT NZF GRN TOP
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020 Q+A–Colmar Brunton 41 38 8 7 4.7 0.4
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 30.12 46.35 0.47 13.17 6.05 1.98

Hauraki-Waikato

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI
Nanaia Mahuta Donna Pokere-Phillips Rahui Papa
29–30 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 61 14 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 68.85 N/A 27.36
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI NAT GRN NZF ACT
29–30 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 61 8 5 3 3 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 61.5 11.3 6.87 5.14 8.34 0.09

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN ANZ OUT
Meka Whaitiri Heather
Te Au-Skipworth		 Marama Fox Elizabeth Kerekere Waitangi Kupenga Kelly Thurston
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 46 19 N/A 3 2 0
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 53.68 N/A 35.27 8.41 N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI NZF GRN NAT ACT
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 62 10 3 3 2 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 64.7 13 7.16 4.86 4.8 0.13

Tāmaki Makaurau

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN
Peeni Henare John Tamihere Shane Taurima Marama Davidson
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 35 29 N/A 14
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 47.51 N/A 28.25 21.58
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN NZF NAT ACT
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 57 9 7 5 3 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 59.34 10.96 7.24 9.53 6.55 0.16

Te Tai Hauāuru

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI
Adrian Rurawhe Debbie
Ngarewa-Packer		 Howie Tamati
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 38 20 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 43.86 N/A 39.21
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI NAT GRN NZF ACT TOP
23–25 Sep 2020 Māori TV–Curia 51 10 4 4 3 2 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 58.47 14.96 6.54 6.53 7.26 0.08 2.85

Te Tai Tokerau

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI ANZ
Kelvin Davis Mariameno Kapa-Kingi Billy Te Kahika
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 36 18 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 52.60 N/A N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NZF NAT MRI GRN ACT
6–7 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 58 6 4 7 7 1
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 57.94 11.12 7.42 6.48 6.35 0.16

Te Tai Tonga

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN
Rino Tirikatene Tākuta Ferris Mei Reedy-Taare Ariana
Paretutanganui-Tamati 		Metiria Turei
4–5 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 37 11 N/A 2 N/A
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 44.44 N/A 20.97 N/A 24.5
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT MRI GRN NZF ACT
4–5 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 53 16 5 5 2 2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 55.8 12.47 8.4 8.12 7.8 0.2

Waiariki

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Electorate vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI VNZ
Tāmati Coffey Rawiri Waititi Te Ururoa Flavell Hannah Tamaki
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 38 26 N/A 2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 53.74 N/A 46.26 N/A
Party vote
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB MRI GRN NAT NZF ACT
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020 Māori TV–Curia 47 19 7 3 2 2
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result 58.95 19.71 3.86 4.75 7.42 0.08

Forecasts

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The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National[11] and that Botany will be returned to National,[12][13] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[14]

Source Seats in Parliament[i] Likely
government
formation(s)
NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT MRI Total
Roy Morgan[15]
Sep 2020 poll 		38 61 0 12 9 0 120 Labour (61)
1 News–Colmar Brunton[16]
10–14 Oct 2020 poll 		40 59 0 11 10 0 120 Labour–Green (70)
Newshub–Reid Research[17]
8–15 Oct 2020 poll 		41 61 0 8 10 0 120 Labour (61)
2020 result 33 65 0 10 10 2 120 Labour (65)
  1. ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ a b 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

References

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  1. ^ a b Deguara, Brittney (17 August 2020). "Live: Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak". Stuff. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
  2. ^ Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
  3. ^ "Hundreds of sites to open for advance voting from today". Radio NZ. Archived from the original on 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2 October 2020 – via 1 News.
  4. ^ a b "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
  5. ^ a b "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
  6. ^ a b "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
  7. ^ "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
  8. ^ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
  9. ^ a b "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
  10. ^ "TV3 Poll Results | Reid Research | Independent Field Market Research". Archived from the original on 9 March 2019.
  11. ^ Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  12. ^ "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  13. ^ Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
  14. ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  15. ^ "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
  16. ^ Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
  17. ^ O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.
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