This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the snap 2024 French legislative election, which will be held in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024. Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission and utilize the quota method. Sample sizes listed are for registered voters, and polls are listed in reverse chronological then alphabetical order by name of institute.
National polling
editGraphical summary
editFirst round
editThe 20:00 CEST estimations made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.[a]
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | EXG | NFP | DVG | ECO | ENS | DVC | DSV | DVD | LR (CNI)[b] |
RN and allies | REC | REG | Others | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LFI | PCF | LE | PS | LR (UXD)[c] | RN | |||||||||||||||
Ministry of the Interior | 30 Jun 2024 | — | 66.71% | 1.14% | 28.21% | 1.57% | 0.57% | 21.28% | 1.22% | 0.28% | 3.60% | 6.57% | 3.96% | 29.26% | 0.75% | 0.97% | 0.63% | |||
Elabe | 30 Jun 2024 | 20:00 CEST est. |
67.5% | 1.5% | 28.5% | 1.5% | – | 22.0% | 0.5%[d] | 10.5% | 33.0% | 0.5% | – | 2.0% | ||||||
Harris Interactive | 67.0% | – | 29.6% | – | 22.4% | –[e] | 10.0% | 34.2% | 1.0%[f] | – | 2.8% | |||||||||
Ifop | 67.0% | 1.3% | 29.1% | – | – | 21.5% | – | – | 10.0% | 34.2% | 0.6% | – | 3.3% | |||||||
Ipsos | 65.5% | 1.2% | 28.1% | 1.8% | – | 20.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 30.0% | 0.6% | – | 2.1% | ||||||
OpinionWay | 67.5% | 1.5% | 29.0% | – | – | 22.0% | – | – | 9.0% | 34.0% | 1.0% | – | 3.5% | |||||||
Harris Interactive | 27–28 Jun 2024 | 2,182 | – | 0.5% | 28% | 1% | – | 20% | 1% | 0.5% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 34% | 2% | – | 2% | |||
Ipsos | 27–28 Jun 2024 | 10,286 | 64% | 1% | 29% | 1% | – | 20% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 8% | 4% | 32% | 1% | – | 2% | ||||
Ifop | 25–28 Jun 2024 | 2,824 | 67% | 1% | 29% | 1% | – | 20.5% | 0.5% | – | 7% | 36.5% | 1.5% | – | 3% | |||||
Elabe | 26–27 Jun 2024 | 1,871 | 64% | 1% | 27.5% | 2% | – | 20% | 0.5% | 0.5%[d] | 9% | 36% | 1.5% | – | 2% | |||||
Odoxa | 26–27 Jun 2024 | 1,896 | 66% | 1% | 27.5% | 1.5% | 1% | 21% | – | – | 2% | 7% | 35% | 1.5% | – | 2.5% | ||||
OpinionWay | 26–27 Jun 2024 | 1,058 | 65% | 1% | 28% | 1% | <1% | 20% | – | – | 2% | 6% | 37% | 1% | – | 4% | ||||
Cluster17 | 25–27 Jun 2024 | 2,465 | 65% | 1.5% | 29.5% | 1% | – | 20% | 1% | – | 1.5% | 7.5% | 4% | 31% | 1.5% | – | 1.5% | |||
Ifop | 24–27 Jun 2024 | 2,823 | 66% | 0.5% | 29% | 1% | – | 21% | 1% | – | 6.5% | 36% | 1.5% | – | 3.5% | |||||
Harris Interactive | 25–26 Jun 2024 | 2,014 | – | 0.5% | 27% | 1% | – | 21% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 34% | 2% | – | 2.5% | |||
OpinionWay | 25–26 Jun 2024 | 1,035 | – | 1% | 28% | 1% | 1% | 20% | – | – | 2% | 7% | 36% | 2% | – | 2% | ||||
Ifop | 22–26 Jun 2024 | 2,343 | 66% | 1% | 28.5% | 1% | – | 21% | 1% | – | 6% | 36% | 1% | – | 4.5% | |||||
Ifop | 21–25 Jun 2024 | 2,335 | 64.5% | 1% | 28.5% | 0.5% | – | 21% | 1% | – | 6.5% | 36% | 1.5% | – | 4% | |||||
Cluster17 | 22–24 Jun 2024 | 2,470 | 64.5% | 1.5% | 30% | 1.5% | – | 19.5% | 1% | – | 1.5% | 7.5% | 4% | 30.5% | 1.5% | – | 1.5% | |||
Harris Interactive | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 2,004 | – | 1% | 27% | 1% | – | 20% | 1% | 0.5% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 33% | 2% | – | 1.5% | |||
Ipsos | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 11,820 | 63% | 1% | 29% | 1% | – | 19.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 8% | 4% | 32% | 1.5% | – | 2% | ||||
OpinionWay | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 3,040 | 58% | 1% | 28% | 1% | <1% | 19% | – | – | 4% | 7% | 36% | 1% | – | 3% | ||||
Ifop | 20–24 Jun 2024 | 1,843 | 63.5% | 1% | 29.5% | 1% | – | 20.5% | 1% | – | 7% | 36% | 1% | – | 3% | |||||
Ifop | 19–22 Jun 2024 | 1,853 | 64% | 1.5% | 29% | 1% | – | 21% | 1% | – | 7% | 35.5% | 1% | – | 3% | |||||
Elabe | 19–21 Jun 2024 | 1,870 | 63% | 1% | 27% | 2% | – | 20% | 0.5% | 0.5%[d] | 10% | 36% | 1.5% | – | 1.5% | |||||
Ifop | 18–21 Jun 2024 | 2,317 | 64% | 1% | 29% | 1% | – | 21.5% | 1% | – | 6.5% | 35% | 1.5% | – | 3.5% | |||||
Harris Interactive | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 2,004 | – | 1% | 26% | 1% | – | 21% | 1% | 0.5% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 33% | 3% | – | 3.5% | |||
Ipsos | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 2,000 | 62% | 1.5% | 29.5% | 1% | – | 19.5% | 1% | 1.5% | 7% | 4% | 31.5% | 2% | – | 1.5% | ||||
Odoxa | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 1,861 | 64% | 2% | 28% | 3% | 1.5% | 19% | – | – | 1% | 7% | 33% | 3.5% | – | 2% | ||||
OpinionWay | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 1,009 | – | 1% | 28% | 1% | <1% | 22% | – | – | 3% | 6% | 35% | 1% | – | 3% | ||||
Ifop | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 1,861 | 64% | 1% | 29% | 1% | – | 22% | 1% | – | 6% | 34% | 2% | – | 4% | |||||
OpinionWay | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 1,057 | – | <1% | 27% | 2% | 1% | 20% | – | – | 2% | 7% | 35% | 2% | – | 4% | ||||
Cluster17 | 17–19 Jun 2024 | 2,654 | 60.5% | 1% | 30% | 3% | – | 19% | – | – | 2.5% | 7% | 32% | 2.5% | – | 3% | ||||
Ifop | 14–17 Jun 2024 | 1,131 | 62% | 1.5% | 28% | 3% | – | 18% | – | 0.5% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 33% | 3% | – | 2% | |||
Ifop | 13–14 Jun 2024 | 1,114 | 63% | 1% | 26% | 3.5% | – | 19% | – | 1% | 1.5% | 7% | 35% | 3% | – | 3% | ||||
OpinionWay | 12–13 Jun 2024 | 1,011 | – | 1% | 25% | 2% | 2% | 20% | – | – | 2% | 7% | 33% | 3% | – | 5% | ||||
Cluster17 | 11–13 Jun 2024 | 2,764 | 60% | 1% | 28.5% | 3% | 1.5% | 18% | 1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 7% | 29.5% | 3.5% | 1% | 2% | ||||
Elabe | 11–12 Jun 2024 | 1,422 | 57% | 1% | 28% | 5% | – | 18% | – | – | 2% | 6.5% | 31% | 4% | – | 4.5% | ||||
OpinionWay | 11–12 Jun 2024 | 1,019 | – | 1% | 25% | 3% | 1% | 19% | – | – | 1% | 9% | 32% | 4% | – | 5% | ||||
Ifop | 10–11 Jun 2024 | 1,089 | – | 1% | 25% | 5% | – | 18% | – | 0.5% | 1.5% | 9% | 35% | 4% | – | 1% | ||||
1% | 11% | 19% | 3% | – | 17% | – | <0.5% | 2% | 8% | 34% | 4% | – | 1% | |||||||
1% | 11% | 2% | 6% | 13% | 2% | – | 16% | – | 0.5% | 1% | 8% | 35% | 3.5% | – | 1% | |||||
OpinionWay | 10 Jun 2024 | 1,095 | – | 1% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 18% | – | – | 2% | 8% | 33% | 5% | – | 4% | ||||
Harris Interactive | 9–10 Jun 2024 | 2,340 | – | 3% | 22% | 9% | – | 19% | – | – | 9% | 34% | 4% | – | – | |||||
Ifop | 12–13 Dec 2023 | 1,100 | – | 1.5% | 24% | 6% | – | 19% | – | 1% | 3% | 11% | 28% | 5% | – | 1.5% | ||||
1% | 10% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 2% | – | 18% | – | 1% | 3% | 10% | 27% | 6% | – | 1% | |||||
Elabe | 3–5 Apr 2023 | 1,699 | – | 1% | 25.5% | 3% | – | 21.5% | – | 1.5% | 1% | 11.5% | 24.5% | 4.5% | – | 6% | ||||
Ifop | 20–21 Mar 2023 | 1,094 | – | 1% | 26% | 5% | – | 22% | – | 1% | 2% | 10% | 26% | 5% | – | 2% | ||||
1% | 11% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 3% | – | 21% | – | 1% | 1% | 10% | 26% | 5% | – | 2% | |||||
Harris Interactive | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 2,108 | – | 1% | 24% | 6% | – | 24% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 10% | 22% | 4% | – | 4% | ||||
Cluster17 | 4–6 Nov 2022 | 2,096 | 56.9% | 1.5% | 24.5% | 3% | 1%[g] | 25% | 0.5% | 2% | 2% | 10.5% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 4% | ||||
Ifop | 2–4 Nov 2022 | 1,396 | – | 1.5% | 25% | 4% | – | 27% | – | 0.5% | 2% | 11% | 21% | 5.5% | – | 2.5% | ||||
1.5% | 11% | 3% | 7% | 8% | 2% | – | 26% | – | 0% | 3% | 11% | 21% | 5% | – | 1.5% | |||||
Ministry of the Interior (Le Monde) |
12 Jun 2022 | — | 47.51% | 1.17% (1.19%) |
25.66% (26.16%) |
3.70% (3.30%) |
2.67% (–) |
25.75% (25.80%) |
1.25% (1.30%) |
1.13% (1.21%) |
2.33% (1.92%) |
11.29% (11.30%) |
18.68% (18.68%) |
4.24% (4.25%) |
1.28% (1.09%) |
0.85% (3.80%) |
Seat projections
editEven though polls since the publication of the official list of candidates by the Ministry of the Interior ask about the specific candidates within each constituency, seat projections should be treated with a significant level of precaution due to their numerous sources of uncertainty which include but are not limited to:
- the large historical error associated with these seat projections outside of the margins of uncertainty reported by pollsters;
- the fact that the legislative election is based on two rounds of voting with 577 varying configurations of candidates in different constituencies, rather than a national party list vote;
- the number of constituencies with second rounds featuring more than two candidates (due to the threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to appear in the second round);
- the need to make inferences about first-to-second round vote transfers between candidates based on historical voting patterns;
- the fact that only residents of metropolitan France are usually surveyed, excluding constituencies of overseas France and constituencies for French residents overseas;
- the unpredictability of eliminated candidates' voting instructions in the aftermath of the first round and candidate withdrawals in constituencies with three or more candidates advancing to the second round; and
- the fact that these projections are agnostic to local factors such as the strength of specific incumbent deputies because they are not made on a constituency-by-constituency basis (and no national polls have a large enough sample size to detect such anomalies), and are instead based on simulations using the aforementioned inferences on the basis of national-level polling with a representative sample in terms of gender, age, region, urbanicity, and socio-economic status (among other variables) projected onto each constituency.
Due to these uncertainties, certain polling institutes opt not to release seat projections alongside topline voting intention figures prior to the first round, and only publish such projections after the results of that initial voting is known.[h]
These seat projections are not subject to the same regulations of the national polling committee as regular voting intention polls are.[i]
The precautions above also apply to the estimations released by pollsters at 20:00 CEST on the day of the first round, though may be slightly more reliable due to asking about several second-round hypotheses based on large number of survey interviews conducted in the hours just prior to the day of the vote. As with the vote percentage estimations after the first round, seat projections produced after the second round made by various pollsters are not traditional exit polls, but are instead based on the level of turnout reported and first set of ballots counted at polling stations which close an hour or two earlier.[a] At least 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority.
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | NFP | DVG | ENS | DVC | DVD | LR (CNI)[b] |
RN and allies | DSV | Others | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LFI | PCF | LE | PS | RE | MoDem | HOR | LR (UXD)[c] | RN | ||||||||||
Ministry of the Interior | 7 Jul 2024 | — | 66.63% | 180 | 12 | 159 | 6 | 27 | 39 | 17 | 125 | 0 | 12 | |||||
Elabe | 7 Jul 2024 | 20:00 CEST est. |
67.1% | 175–205 | 11–13 | 150–175 | 60–70 | 115–150 | 0–1[d] | 10–14 | ||||||||
Harris Interactive | 67.1% | 83–90 | 8–10 | 37–41 | 58–70 | 13 | 150–182 | 60–75 | 8–18 | 102–140 | – | 10–15 | ||||||
Ifop | 67.5% | 180–215 | 10 | 150–180 | – | 60–65 | 120–150 | – | 5–6 | |||||||||
Ipsos | 67.0% | 68–74 | 10–12 | 32–36 | 63–69 | 13–16 | 95–105 | 31–37 | 24–28 | 6–8[j] | 57–67 | 12–16 | 120–136 | – | 22–30 | |||
OpinionWay | 67.0% | 180–210 | 155–175 | 46–56 | 135–155 | – | 15–25 | |||||||||||
Cluster17 | 5 Jul 2024 | 1,401 | – | 165–195 | – | 130–160 | – | – | 30–50 | 170–210 | – | 15–30 | ||||||
Harris Interactive | 4–5 Jul 2024 | 2,951 | – | 168–198 | – | 115–145 | – | – | 32–63 | 185–215 | – | 15–30 | ||||||
Ifop | 3–5 Jul 2024 | 2,859 | 69% | 155–185 | 10–18 | 120–150 | – | 50–65 | 170–210 | – | 5–15 | |||||||
Elabe | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 2,005 | 65% | 165–190 | 120–140 | – | 35–50 | 200–230 | – | 10–12 | ||||||||
Ifop | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 1,916 | 68% | 170–200 | – | 95–125 | – | 25–45 | 210–240 | – | 15–27 | |||||||
Ipsos | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 10,101 | 68% | 58–68 | 7–9 | 29–37 | 51–61 | 14–16 | 78–94 | 23–31 | 17–23 | 6–8[j] | 57–67 | 18–24 | 157–181 | – | 8–12 | |
Odoxa | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 952 | – | 140–180 | 115–155 | – | 40–60 | 210–250 | – | 10–20 | ||||||||
OpinionWay | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 3,355 | – | 145–175 | – | 130–162 | – | 38–50 | 205–230 | – | 8–12 | |||||||
OpinionWay | 3–4 Jul 2024 | – | – | 150–180 | – | 125–155 | – | 38–50 | 205–230 | – | 8–12 | |||||||
Harris Interactive | 2–3 Jul 2024 | 3,008 | – | 159–183 | – | 110–135 | – | – | 30–50 | 190–220 | – | 17–31 | ||||||
Elabe | 30 Jun 2024 | Most recent est. |
– | 120–140 | 11–12 | 90–125 | 35–45 | 255–295 | 0–1[d] | 10–14 | ||||||||
Harris Interactive | 140–190 | 70–120 | 30–50 | 30–45 | 210–260 | 0–2[k] | 10–20 | |||||||||||
Ifop | 180–200 | – | 60–90 | – | 30–50 | 240–270 | – | 13–21 | ||||||||||
Ipsos | 58–72 | 6–12 | 28–38 | 33–43 | 11–19 | 53–71 | 13–19 | 4–10 | – | 41–61 | 26–36 | 204–244 | – | 22–30 | ||||
OpinionWay | 130–170 | 65–105 | 30–50 | 250–300 | – | 24–30 | ||||||||||||
Harris Interactive | 27–28 Jun 2024 | 2,182 | – | 120–150 | – | 80–130 | – | – | 30–50 | 20–35 | 220–260 | 0–2 | 10–20 | |||||
Ifop | 25–28 Jun 2024 | 2,824 | – | 170–200 | 10–18 | 70–100 | – | 30–60 | 225–265[l] | – | 1–5 | |||||||
Elabe | 26–27 Jun 2024 | 1,871 | – | 155–175 | 85–105 | – | 30–40 | 260–295 | – | 8–10 | ||||||||
Odoxa | 26–27 Jun 2024 | 1,896 | – | 150–190 | 70–110 | – | 15–45 | 265–305 | – | – | ||||||||
Cluster17 | 25–27 Jun 2024 | 2,465 | – | 180–220 | – | 65–110 | – | – | 25–35 | 210–255 | – | 20–30 | ||||||
Ifop | 24–27 Jun 2024 | 2,823 | – | 180–210 | 5–9 | 75–110 | – | 25–50 | 220–260[m] | – | 6–10 | |||||||
Harris Interactive | 25–26 Jun 2024 | 2,014 | – | 125–155 | – | 75–125 | – | – | 30–50 | 20–35 | 230–270 | 0–2 | 10–20 | |||||
Ifop | 22–26 Jun 2024 | 2,343 | – | 180–210 | 5–9 | 75–110 | – | 23–50 | 220–260[m] | – | 5–9 | |||||||
Ifop | 21–25 Jun 2024 | 2,335 | – | 180–210 | 5–9 | 75–110 | – | 25–50 | 220–260[m] | – | 4–8 | |||||||
Cluster17 | 22–24 Jun 2024 | 2,470 | – | 180–230 | – | 65–100 | – | – | 25–40 | 210–250 | – | 20–30 | ||||||
Harris Interactive | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 2,044 | – | 150–180 | – | 85–130 | – | – | 30–50 | 15–30 | 215–245 | 0–2 | 10–20 | |||||
Ifop | 20–24 Jun 2024 | 1,843 | – | 185–215 | 6–10 | 70–100 | – | 30–50 | 220–260[m] | – | 3–7 | |||||||
Ifop | 19–22 Jun 2024 | 1,853 | – | 180–210 | 7–11 | 75–105 | – | 40–60 | 210–250[m] | – | 3–8 | |||||||
Elabe | 19–21 Jun 2024 | 1,870 | – | 150–170 | 90–110 | – | 35–45 | 250–280 | – | 10–12 | ||||||||
Ifop | 18–21 Jun 2024 | 2,317 | – | 180–210 | 8–12 | 80–110 | – | 40–60 | 200–240[m] | – | 5–10 | |||||||
Harris Interactive | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 2,004 | – | 135–165 | – | 95–130 | – | – | 30–50 | 15–30 | 220–250 | 0–2 | 10–20 | |||||
Odoxa | 19–20 Jun 2024 | 1,861 | – | 160–210 | 70–120 | – | 10–50 | 250–300 | – | – | ||||||||
Cluster17 | 17–19 Jun 2024 | 2,654 | – | 190–240 | – | 70–100 | – | – | 20–30 | 200–250 | – | 20–30 | ||||||
Cluster17 | 11–13 Jun 2024 | 2,764 | – | 190–235 | 10–14 | 70–100 | – | – | 23–35 | 195–245 | – | 10–16 | ||||||
Elabe | 11–12 Jun 2024 | 1,422 | – | 150–190 | 90–130 | – | 30–40 | 220–270 | – | 10–20 | ||||||||
Harris-Interactive | 9–10 Jun 2024 | 2,340 | – | 115–145 | – | 125–155 | – | 40–55 | 235–265 | 0–2 | 5–20 | |||||||
Ipsos (for LR) | 8–13 Dec 2023 | 4,000 | – | 55–79 | 20–22 | 117–165 | 3 | 7–8 | 44–60 | 243–305 | – | 10–11 | ||||||
Elabe | 3–5 Apr 2023 | 1,699 | – | 150–180 | 15–20 | 130–155 | 60–75 | 150–175 | 1–2 | 12–15 | ||||||||
Harris-Interactive | 3–7 Mar 2023 | 2,108 | – | 158–168 | 234–244 | 69–79 | 91–100 | 8–14 | ||||||||||
Ministry of the Interior (Le Monde) |
19 Jun 2022 | — | 46.23% | 131 (142) |
22 (13) |
245 (246) |
4 (5) |
74 (73) |
89 (89) |
1 (1) |
11 (8) |
By second round configuration
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | NFP (any party) | NFP (depends on party) |
ENS | LR (CNI)[b] |
RN | Abs./blank/ null vote/ don't know | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LFI | PCF | LE | PS | |||||||||
CSA | 4 Jul 2024 | 1,009 | – | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 41% | 27% |
OpinionWay | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 693 | 64% | 36% | 34% | – | 30% | – | ||||
860 | 62% | 47% | – | – | 53% | – | ||||||
813 | 63% | – | – | – | – | – | 52% | – | 48% | – | ||
Ifop | 1–2 Jul 2024 | 1,118 | – | 42% | – | – | – | – | 58% | – | – | – |
50% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 50% | – | ||||
– | – | 48% | – | 52% | – | – | – | |||||
– | – | 53% | – | – | – | 47% | – | |||||
– | – | – | – | – | 53% | – | 47% | – | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | – | 56% | 44% | – | ||||
Ipsos | 27–28 Jun 2024 | 10,286 | – | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 41% | 27% |
– | – | 38% | – | – | – | – | 41% | 21% | ||||
– | – | – | 40% | – | – | – | 39% | 21% | ||||
OpinionWay | 21–24 Jun 2024 | 3,040 | – | 26% | 29% | – | – | 45% | ||||
33% | – | – | 40% | 27% | ||||||||
– | – | – | – | – | 29% | – | 34% | 37% | ||||
Odoxa | 26–27 Jun 2024 | 1,005 | – | 25% | 9% | – | – | 38% | 28% | |||
17% | 10% | 21% | – | 34% | 18% | |||||||
OpinionWay | 17–18 Jun 2024 | 1,044 | – | 33% | – | – | 41% | 26% | ||||
– | – | – | – | – | 40% | – | 37% | 23% |
By first round vote
editNFP–ENS–RN
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | NFP/DVG | ENS | RN/UXD | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elabe | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 2,005 | NFP/DVG | 87% | 3% | 1% | 9% | |
ENS | 2% | 83% | 0% | 15% | ||||
RN/UXD | 1% | 1% | 87% | 11% | ||||
OpinionWay | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 693 | NFP/DVG | 96% | 1% | 2% | 1% | |
ENS | 9% | 86% | 0% | 5% | ||||
LR/DVD | 5% | 18% | 60% | 17% | ||||
RN/UXD | 1% | 1% | 98% | 0% |
NFP–RN
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | NFP/DVG | RN/UXD | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elabe | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 2,005 | NFP/DVG | 86% | 3% | 11% | |
ENS | 32% | 18% | 50% | ||||
RN/UXD | 1% | 92% | 7% | ||||
OpinionWay | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 860 | NFP/DVG | 98% | 0% | 2% | |
ENS | 48% | 16% | 36% | ||||
LR/DVD | 18% | 51% | 31% | ||||
RN/UXD | 0% | 99% | 1% |
LFI–ENS
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | LFI | ENS | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ifop | 1–2 Jul 2024 | 1,118 | NFP/DVG | 88% | 12% | – | |
ENS | 10% | 90% | – | ||||
LR/DVD | 23% | 77% | – | ||||
RN/UXD | 25% | 75% | – |
LFI–RN
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | LFI | RN/UXD | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CSA | 4 Jul 2024 | 1,009 | NFP/DVG | 87% | 5% | 8% | |
ENS | 37% | 13% | 50% | ||||
LR/DVD | 15% | 38% | 47% | ||||
RN/UXD | 0% | 98% | 2% | ||||
Ifop | 1–2 Jul 2024 | 1,118 | NFP/DVG | 98% | 2% | – | |
ENS | 66% | 34% | – | ||||
LR/DVD | 41% | 59% | – | ||||
RN/UXD | 2% | 98% | – |
PS/LE–ENS
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | PS/LE | ENS | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ifop | 1–2 Jul 2024 | 1,118 | NFP/DVG | 94% | 6% | – | |
ENS | 14% | 86% | – | ||||
LR/DVD | 31% | 69% | – | ||||
RN/UXD | 29% | 71% | – |
PS/LE–RN
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | PS/LE | RN/UXD | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ifop | 1–2 Jul 2024 | 1,118 | NFP/DVG | 95% | 5% | – | |
ENS | 77% | 23% | – | ||||
LR/DVD | 52% | 48% | – | ||||
RN/UXD | 2% | 98% | – |
ENS–RN
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | ENS | RN/UXD | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elabe | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 2,005 | NFP/DVG | 62% | 6% | 32% | |
ENS | 81% | 8% | 11% | ||||
RN/UXD | 2% | 88% | 10% | ||||
OpinionWay | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 813 | NFP/DVG | 56% | 17% | 27% | |
ENS | 93% | 5% | 2% | ||||
LR/DVD | 56% | 40% | 4% | ||||
RN/UXD | 2% | 97% | 1% | ||||
Ifop | 1–2 Jul 2024 | 1,118 | NFP/DVG | 84% | 16% | – | |
ENS | 92% | 8% | – | ||||
LR/DVD | 57% | 43% | – | ||||
RN/UXD | 3% | 97% | – |
LR–RN
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | First round vote | LR/DVD | RN/UXD | None of these | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elabe | 3–4 Jul 2024 | 2,005 | NFP/DVG | 57% | 5% | 38% | |
LR/DVD | 90% | 2% | 8% | ||||
RN/UXD | 1% | 87% | 12% | ||||
Ifop | 1–2 Jul 2024 | 1,118 | NFP/DVG | 87% | 13% | – | |
ENS | 90% | 10% | – | ||||
LR/DVD | 81% | 19% | – | ||||
RN/UXD | 5% | 95% | – |
By constituency
editBecause the configuration of the second round, if any, is contingent on the level of turnout in the first round, only the top-placed candidate is highlighted in first-round polls below.
Alpes-Maritimes's 1st
editFirst round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Alain Langouet LO |
Olivier Salerno NFP–LFI |
Graig Monetti ENS–HOR |
Lalla Chama Ben Moulay ÉAC |
Virgile Vanier-Guérin LR (CNI) |
Éric Ciotti LR (UXD) |
Jean-Claude Wahid Spach DG |
Maxime Bovis SE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 30 Jun 2024 | — | 0.62% | 26.62% | 22.79% | 2.81% | 5.78% | 41.04% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
Ifop | 25–27 Jun 2024 | 543 | 0.5% | 26% | 22% | 3% | 5.5% | 42% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Second round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Olivier Salerno NFP–LFI |
Graig Monetti ENS–HOR |
Éric Ciotti LR (UXD) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 7 Jul 2024 | — | 32.13% | 22.73% | 45.14% |
Ifop | 25–27 Jun 2024 | 543 | 27% | 27% | 46% |
40% | – | 60% |
Calvados's 6th
editSecond round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Élisabeth Borne ENS–RE |
Nicolas Calbrix RN |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 7 Jul 2024 | — | 56.36% | 43.64% |
Ifop | 2–3 Jul 2024 | 611 | 54% | 46% |
Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd
editFirst round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Bernadette Gasc LO |
Xavier Czapla NFP–LFI |
Jérôme Cahuzac DVG |
Guillaume Lepers LR (CNI) |
Annick Cousin RN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 30 Jun 2024 | — | 1.01% | 18.36% | 14.56% | 24.99% | 41.08% |
Ifop | 24–26 Jun 2024 | 561 | 1% | 19% | 23% | 19% | 38% |
Second round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Xavier Czapla NFP–LFI |
Jérôme Cahuzac DVG |
Guillaume Lepers LR (CNI) |
Annick Cousin RN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 7 Jul 2024 | — | – | – | 54.13% | 45.87% |
Ifop | 24–26 Jun 2024 | 561 | 22% | 31% | – | 47% |
– | 49% | – | 51% |
Nord's 10th
editFirst round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Christophe Charlon LO |
Leslie Mortreux NFP–REV |
Gérald Darmanin ENS–RE |
Jérôme Garcia LR |
Bastien Verbrugghe RN |
Gustave Viguie-Desplaces REC |
Marcelin Brazon Résistons! |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 30 Jun 2024 | — | 1.10% | 24.83% | 36.03% | 2.98% | 34.31% | 0.51% | 0.25% |
Ifop | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 602 | 1.5% | 24% | 42% | 2.5% | 28% | 1% | 1% |
Second round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Leslie Mortreux NFP–REV |
Gérald Darmanin ENS–RE |
Bastien Verbrugghe RN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 7 Jul 2024 | — | – | 61.37% | 38.63% |
Ifop | 18–20 Jun 2024 | 602 | – | 65% | 35% |
27% | 44% | 29% |
Seine-Saint-Denis's 7th
editFirst round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Aurélie Jochaud LO |
Elsa Caudron NPA |
Yannick Duterte PRCF |
Sabrina Ali Benali NFP–LFI |
Alexis Corbière LFI diss. |
Éric Verhaeghe AC |
Pauline Breteau ENS–HOR |
Antoine Toche DVD |
Françoise Trova RN |
Sébastien Atlani SE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 30 Jun 2024 | — | 0.63% | 0.30% | 0.33% | 36.38% | 40.19% | 0.95% | 10.06% | 1.31% | 9.69% | 0.14% |
Ifop | 25–26 Jun 2024 | 550 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 35% | 40% | 1.5% | 10% | 1.5% | 10% | 0% |
Second round
editPolling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Sabrina Ali Benali NFP–LFI |
Alexis Corbière LFI diss. |
---|---|---|---|---|
Ministry of the Interior | 7 Jul 2024 | — | 42.84% | 57.16% |
Ifop | 25–26 Jun 2024 | 550 | 46% | 54% |
See also
editNotes and references
edit- ^ a b "Comment les instituts de sondage estiment les résultats des élections législatives dès 20 heures". Le Monde. 12 June 2022. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b c Candidates presented by the national investiture commission of The Republicans (French: Commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains)
- ^ a b UXD, union of the far-right (French: union de l'extrême droite) is the electoral nuance assigned by the Ministry of the Interior to the 63 (initially 62) LR members invested as candidates supported by Éric Ciotti and the RN:
- "Publication des candidatures et des résultats aux élections". Ministère de l'Intérieur.
- Guez, Ariel (17 June 2024). "Législatives: au moins 62 candidats soutenus par Éric Ciotti et le RN, près de 400 par Les Républicains". BFMTV. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- Barbarit, Simon (17 June 2024). "Alliance Ciotti Bardella : que sait-on des candidats investis pour les législatives ?". Public Sénat. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- "Législatives : LR investit tous ses députés sortants, sauf Éric Ciotti et une de ses proches". Le Parisien. Agence France-Presse. 12 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
- ^ a b c d e Including miscellaneous far-right candidates
- ^ Grouped with Reconquête
- ^ Includes sovereignist right
- ^ Animalist Party, which is not officially presenting candidates in the 2024 legislative elections:
- Avot, Céline (17 June 2024). "Législatives 2024. Pas de candidat pour le Parti animaliste dans la 2e circonscription de la Manche". Ouest-France. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ Rougerie, Paméla (22 June 2024). "Législatives : tendances, projections de sièges… Comment les instituts conçoivent leurs sondages". Le Parisien. Retrieved 25 June 2024.
- ^ "Communiqué de la commission des sondages du 18 juin 2024 au sujet des sondages électoraux relatifs aux élections législatives 2024 et aux projections en sièges". La commission des sondages. 18 June 2024. Retrieved 27 June 2024.
- ^ a b Including UDI
- ^ Includes Reconquête
- ^ Including 20–25 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally
- ^ a b c d e f Including 10–20 seats for the union of the far-right of pro-Éric Ciotti candidates of The Republicans supported by the National Rally