Talk:2021 Atlantic hurricane season/Archive 2

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Ok let's talk

the draft article for Grace are either old or outdated and i want atleast some people to help me finish this and be release to the publicNioni1234 (talk) 23:45, 18 August 2021 (UTC)

@Nioni1234: Please calm down! Someone will eventually update the draft and publish it before Grace makes landfall. CycloneYoris ^talk! 01:52, 19 August 2021 (UTC)

ok Nioni1234 (talk) 02:08, 19 August 2021 (UTC)

Henri

there's a draft about henri 2021 but its not perfect will some of you help me fix it up? Draft:Tropical Storm Henri (2021) Nioni1234 (talk) 10:14, 20 August 2021 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 20 August 2021

In the introduction, please replace "3 more named storms" with "Another 3 named storms" because sentences shouldn't start with numerals. 64.203.186.93 (talk) 15:02, 20 August 2021 (UTC)

 Done ScottishFinnishRadish (talk) 15:18, 20 August 2021 (UTC)

creating Hurricane Henri into own article

Can someone please create the Hurricane Henri article on English Wikipedia? This is the first tropical cyclone which may travel over New England in thirty years. The last tropical cyclone to move directly across New England while a hurricane was Bob on August 19, three decades ago. Henri may travel over similar areas to the previous hurricane. Tropical cyclone notices were just posted for southern New England and southeast New York State (starting with areas just outside New York City extending eastward near the eastern tip of Long Island). When the article associated with Henri is created here, references will be needed (not just any particular reference, however; reliable references are required for this tropical storm/hurricane article). Angela Kate Maureen (talk) 12:09, 20 August 2021 (UTC)

there already draft for Henri above your reply. 74.11.179.130 (talk) 14:10, 20 August 2021 (UTC)

I published the article. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 00:27, 21 August 2021 (UTC)

Registry of existing drafts?

We ran into this issue just now with Tropical Storm Grace, and it happened a few times last year, where somebody started an article for a storm that already had a draft underway. Should we have some system in place to avoid this confusion? Perhaps a table of storm names on this talk page so people cab check if it's redlinked or not? Maybe add a hidden note to redirects if the storm has a draft? TornadoLGS (talk) 06:19, 18 August 2021 (UTC)

My personal suggestion is that we standardize on a "Draft:Tropical Storm [Foo]" draft. Whether it's a hurricane or typhoon or tropical storm or whatever isn't really important at the draft stage and the draft can be launched into the suitable article title. Year numbers aren't important at the draft stage yet, either - also can be put into the article title at launch if necessary. Jo-Jo Eumerus (talk) 09:06, 18 August 2021 (UTC)

I agree with the need for more coordination. I added an edit notice, so people see it every time they edit. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 15:00, 18 August 2021 (UTC)

might better if add notice all tropical cyclone season HurricaneEdgar 13:14, 21 August 2021 (UTC)

Main article for Grace? (movement)

I think that it should be moved to a regular article soon instead of a draft. Its impacts on land will probably be significant enough to be of importance to put on an article link. But, i want to hear your opinions. Sria >:3 SR.1111111 (talk)♥️ 00:12, 21 August 2021 (UTC)

SR.1111111, an article focusing on Hurricane Grace already exists. -Shift674-🌀 ^contribs 04:51, 22 August 2021 (UTC)

Oh, but I knew there was a draft for it but it was moved to Hurricane Grace and no one responded here. Sria >:3 SR.1111111 (talk)♥️ 11:44, 22 August 2021 (UTC)

Ida should have a An article

This is Storm is threatening the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the US, specifically Louisiana so where's the draft? AndrewHat250 (talk) 21:19, 26 August 2021 (UTC)

I will start one pretty soon. --MarioProtIV (^talk/_contribs) 21:25, 26 August 2021 (UTC)

edit: it is up. Have at it but don’t publish until we have enough content or if things deteriorate quick enough to warrant it. --MarioProtIV (^talk/_contribs) 21:38, 26 August 2021 (UTC)

Kate listed before Julian?

????? It is because Kate formed before Julian. Julian was named first because Julian became a TS before Kate. Georgia guy (talk) 22:33, 31 August 2021 (UTC)

Exactly. It happens occasionally. There's a hidden note to that effect. ----Dr.Margi ✉ 23:01, 31 August 2021 (UTC)

But according to the write-up, Kate became a TS and was named an hour and a half before Julian (1330Z 30 Aug vs 1500Z 30 Aug).... 104.153.40.58 (talk) 03:26, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

Kate formed as a tropical depression on August 28 at 06:00Z while Larry formed as a TD on August 29 at 00:00Z. Switching them would make 11L go before 10L. Akbermamps 03:43, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

Larry now Category 2

Hurricane Larry is now a Category 2 hurricane. Update the info of Hurricane Larry. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Brennan1234567890 (talk • contribs) 20:47, 3 September 2021 (UTC)

 Already done by Anthony23066, Drewsky1211 and HurricaneEdgar. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 07:12, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

To prevent an edit war--Should 20 deaths from the precursor of Ida be attributed to the storm?

Earlier, I noticed that 20 deaths had been attributed to then Tropical Depression 9, because on Tuesday major flooding struck Merida in Venezuela. The storms were at the very most the very southern tip of the storms that would end up spawning Ida. I removed the 20 deaths but it has since been added again.

I do not believe that these 20 deaths should be attributed to Ida. RaskBunzzz (talk) 21:42, 26 August 2021 (UTC)

• Support A death is a death. Even if it was due to it passing over. MoonlightVector 12:29, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
• I don't see why these deaths shouldn't be attributed, Ida and its precursor are still the same storm; we did the same thing with Hurricane Nate. Akbermamps 12:36, 27 August 2021 (UTC)

• Strongly Support – Ida's precursor was at South America only three days ago, which any of you can easily tell had you paid more attention to the track or tracked the storm earlier this week. We don't need to wait for the TCR to make an obvious connection. Any and all deaths caused by a storm (as a precursor, a tropical cyclone, and as a remnant) should all be included in its death toll. While it is preferred that the sources name the storms, it is not required. Case closed. LightandDark2000 🌀 (talk) 17:00, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
  • @LightandDark2000: It is OR to attribute any impacts to Ida without RS or official information. Destroyer (Alternate account) 17:46, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
    • @Destroyeraa: No, it is NOT. We both know full well that the "most official" sources do not cover everything all the time, and sometimes, they are wrong. We DO NOT need to be meteorologists to call out the obvious. We are NOT obligated to follow only what Academia or the most official Government sources say, nor should we. I'm getting tired of having to repeat myself on this point over and over again. And both of us have written articles where we used sources in which some sources did not directly name the storm in question, but the impacts were obviously related. This is the same thing here. This is a ridiculous content dispute that never should've become as much of an issue as it has. The more you dig in here, the more you are contributing to this unnecessary drama. I would suggest that you avoid picking content fights on areas where you don't have a firm understanding of either the Wikipedia policies or the information involved. "The Reuters source does not attribute it to Ida, or a tropical wave." Are you kidding me!? Not all sources will explicitly name the storm, especially when you're looking at the precursor impacts (and sometimes, even for the remnants). And not tied to a tropical wave?? Seriously?!? Most of those sources would not even mention tropical waves unless they get their info directly from the NHC, or other career meteorologists in the US. And we can't rely on those official sources all the time. We have a reliable source reporting deaths from Ida's precursor (even if it hasn't been explicitly named). We cannot ignore that. How many times do I (and Noah, and others) need to repeat myself before people finally understand that we cannot ignore our reliable sources!? LightandDark2000 🌀 (talk) 18:30, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
    • Hmmm...Hurricane Leslie formed from the souther half of the post tropical remnants of Florence. Similarly, Ida formed from the northern half of a broad tropical wave/monsoon gyre. Should Florence's death toll be incorporated into Leslie's, if it's "clearly the same system"? Of course not! Also, many tropical wave precursors cause thunderstorms and flooding in Africa as part of the monsoon, similarly to how Ida's precursor was the Venezuelan monsoon trough. Do we need to find the African impacts? No. Attributing these deaths to Ida is wrong per source synthesis policies/guidelines.Destroyer (Alternate account) 19:00, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
      • No offense, but what you just said is not true. If that were the case, we wouldn't have attributed three indirect deaths to the precursor of Hurricane Helene (2018) over Africa nor the indirect death caused by the precursor to Tropical Storm Vicky (2020) in Cabo Verde. Just saying.ChessEric (talk · contribs) 19:28, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
        • @ChessEric: No offense taken. Vicky's deaths were confirmed by the TCR. Im not sure about Helene. Either way, we should wait for official sources to confirm possibly-related deathsnot attributed by RS. Reuters did not attribute the flooding to Ida. Its similar to Infa and the Henan floods, only that the floods are attributed to Infa by the CMA in the latter. In that case, WP decided to use its own judgement instead of following RS/official sources. We should not be using our own judgement and poorly synthesizing sources.Destroyer (Alternate account) 19:46, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
• Strong Oppose The Reuters source does not attribute it to Ida, or a tropical wave. It is OR or a poor synthesis of sources to attribute it to Ida. Read the source, please.Also, we did not ignore our reliable sources. Reuters is RS, but we should wait till the TCR to confirm these deaths.Destroyer (Alternate account) 17:44, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
• Oppose Unless a source explicitly attributes the flooding to Ida or its precursor, it's synthesis. TornadoLGS (talk) 18:42, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
• Support but... I'm fine with saying that the precursor to Ida caused these deaths. However, I'm NOT fine with calling them direct. Precursor wave deaths are deemed by the NHC are seen as indirect, not direct, no matter what kind of death it is (see Tropical Storm Vicky (2020) TCR). That does need to be changed.ChessEric (talk · contribs) 19:23, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
  • Comment I will say that it interesting that none of the articles I'm finding even mention Ida in the Venezuela flooding disaster, so that does muddy the waters of this claim a little bit. Additionally, even more rain is in the forecast for the country, so the death toll may rise and it wouldn't even be remotely close to being caused by Ida. I may have to reconsider my decision.ChessEric (talk · contribs) 19:56, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
• Comment I'm sorry, but I think everyone should take a short break from this discussion. It appears to be quite heated in some sense, and I think a short break would help cool things down, and give everyone time to think stuff over. Just a suggestion, not trying to impinge on the discussion, I just don't like seeing my fellow editors get into disagreements. 🌀CycloneFootball71🏈 |sandbox 20:13, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
• Oppose unless there is a source linking it to Ida. I have had to cut things out of my own articles and exclude items I knew were connected because I couldn't prove it. Destroyeraa is right that it is OR to link the flooding to Ida if the source doesn't explicitly state it or another one doesn't mention it. I have been able to use news sources that don't mention a specific cause because the NHC TCR said it affected the area. In this case, I don't believe we have anything tying it to Ida. Noah^Talk 20:19, 27 August 2021 (UTC)
• Oppose in the absence of reliable sources confirming the landslides were caused by precursor of Ida and not a separate thunderstorm event. Doing so would go against our policies on original research. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 14:49, 28 August 2021 (UTC)
• Comment If the deaths are not attributed to Ida then should Venezuela, Colombia, and Panama be removed from "Areas Affected"? Ida did not impact those areas as a tropical depression or stronger, only the precursor did. RaskBunzzz (talk) 18:18, 30 August 2021 (UTC)
• Comment Did everyone who is contributing here check the satellite images? It is also well visible in the NHC Graphical Outlook archive. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=202108240246&basin=atl&fdays=2 Also reliefweb is attributing the flooding in Venezuela to the Tropical Wave. --2003:F6:270B:9400:4893:642E:3CDC:88E1 (talk) 14:28, 3 September 2021 (UTC)

  We can't use satellite images to infer that Ida and these rainclouds were the same thing per WP:SYNTH. And I am rather doubtful that reliefweb or any of these media websites people mention here are reliable sources for a meteorological fact. Jo-Jo Eumerus (talk) 16:04, 3 September 2021 (UTC)

  @Jo-Jo Eumerus: Does clicking "later" on the TWO archives until the disturbance turns into Ida count as SYNTH? I feel as if this is in a grey zone for "implying a conclusion not explicitly stated by any of the sources" since arguments can be made for either side. Also, ReliefWeb is a reliable source for tropical cyclones and their damages since they compile information from media sources, UN agencies, and other government/private sources. Still a bit annoying how vague the sources are in regards to the Venezuela floods and Ida. Akbermamps 04:05, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

  Yes, it does IMO, see also the arguments above. And none of that makes reliefweb a reliable source for meteorological information - perhaps one of the sources it compiles information from is, but in that case you'd use that source. Jo-Jo Eumerus (talk) 09:42, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

  Wouldn't it be OR then to link a storm and its precursor together via the TWO archives? After all, the NHC usually doesn't explicitly say that a storm originated from a specific disturbance, only giving vague locations in their forecast discussions. Also, how is an organization administered by OCHA using information from the World Food Programme, other UN-related organizations, the Red Cross & Crescent, and so many more others not a reliable source? In some cases, the information needed can only be found on ReliefWeb since the source website doesn't archive their products. Akbermamps 10:06, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

  Because none of that makes it a reliable source for a meteorological claim. A source can be reliable for one claim and unreliable for another. Jo-Jo Eumerus (talk) 10:14, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

I don't see why an organization dedicated to helping in disasters such as TCs would be unreliable for meteorological information; I think this has gone a little off-topic. Akbermamps 10:31, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

Ida damages

Where was the 95B losses obtained from? It's not sourced, plus that seems to be from AccuWeather which generally overestimates damages most of the time CycloneEditor (talk) 03:13, 5 September 2021 (UTC)

@CycloneEditor: Where in the article or main page did you see the 95B losses from? I have gone through the history of Ida and have not found any revisions that updated or undid damage estimates from Ida since the 50b estimate was added. There was an article from The Philadelphia Inquirer that mentioned a 95b estimate that was totaled from Accuweather's founder and chief executive, but as far as I'm aware, neither the article nor the damage estimate were added into Ida. Typically though, damage estimates come from AON or other financial companies, or the NHC itself. Gumballs678 talk 23:37, 5 September 2021 (UTC)

And AccuWeather is always not accurate in terms of there tracks. AndrewHat250 (talk) 10:34, 6 September 2021 (UTC)

Mindy Draft created

To make sure things are communicated clearly, a draft has been created at Draft:Tropical Storm Mindy (2021). TornadoLGS (talk) 22:46, 8 September 2021 (UTC)

Ida should an "Effects of Hurricane Ida in Louisiana" and "Effects of Hurricane Ida in Northeast".

These 2 places are the worst impacted from the storm.Nioni1234 (talk) 00:06, 9 September 2021 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13 or 14?

Since Tropical Storm Mindy was never classified as a Tropical Depression (from my knowledge, if there is evidence to the contrary please provide it), if the next storm were to form, would it be TD 13 or 14? Kellis7 02:39, 9 September 2021 (UTC)

@Kellis7: The NHC still attaches designations to systems regardless if they form as a TD or TS, see NHC FTP best track list (Mindy is bal13). Akbermamps 02:46, 9 September 2021 (UTC)

@Akbermamps: Sounds good, just had to verify. Much thanks! Kellis7 02:53, 9 September 2021 (UTC)

Is this reliable?

https://www.corelogic.com/press-releases/corelogic-estimates-16-billion-to-24-billion-in-insured-and-uninsured-flood-losses-in-the-northeast-from-tropical-storm-ida/ the total flood damage has been estimated is this reliable?

@Nioni1234: We haven't used this site in the past. Also, please sign your posts. Destroyer (Alternate account) 23:53, 10 September 2021 (UTC)

@Destroyeraa-alt: how do i do that? Nioni1234 (talk) 00:00, 11 September 2021 (UTC)

Just add four tildes: ~~~~ 🐔 Chicdat  ^{Bawk to me!} 10:43, 11 September 2021 (UTC)

should Larry have a draft?

Because Larry is going to pass or strike Bermuda and Canada as who knows.Nioni1234 (talk) 11:34, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

There already is one, but I'm leery of creating drafts on active systems when they're not imminently threatening land as it tends to just become a copy-paste of the season article. There's more than five days before the earliest watches go up for Bermuda (if there will be any in the first place), we can afford to wait. ~ KN2731 {talk · contribs} 14:08, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

I think it's safe to have a draft for Larry, but given the uncertainty of impacts the storm may bring to Bermuda--landfall, swells, etc.--and then the unknown of its track after Bermuda, it should stay as a draft until we know more on its impacts on Bermuda and areas along Eastern North America. Gumballs678 talk 20:35, 4 September 2021 (UTC)

Well, now should the article be released? It's already affected land directly. Kaiser Jaguar (talk) 14:51, 11 September 2021 (UTC)

unless there’s damaging winds and flooding in Newfoundland and record blizzard conditions in Greenland or Iceland, I question whether there’s enough meat for a decent size article. I would suggest letting the draft steep a little longer in order to discern better whether there is any "there" there. Drdpw (talk) 03:09, 12 September 2021 (UTC)

I imagine the meteorological history will be interesting enough anyways, considering the rarity of annular Atlantic cyclones and the oddity of Larry's infinite EWRCs. But I do know that impacts on land seem to be a requirement for articles here, and it looks like it happened, at least in Newfoundland. News reports of widespread power outages and damage from storm surge. Not exactly enough for a Katrina-level article, but significant enough for a discussion. We'll see if we can get a number figure for damages. Mvhcmaniac (talk) 19:30, 11 September 2021 (UTC)

Larry will be retired for the third time?

WP:NOTFORUM HurricaneEdgar 05:08, 14 September 2021 (UTC)

Will Larry be removed from the list of tropical cyclone names in the next year? For example; The hurricane is also considered a probable benchmark for future cyclones in the region, having illustrated to residents that they are not immune from hurricanes and their impacts. And will Larry be the third name to be, or not to be retired, as happened with Juan in 2003 and Igor in 2010? Greetings --МОДОКАУ 23:54, 13 September 2021 (UTC) Any speculation in the article on whether a name will be retired would be a violation of WP:CRYSTAL. TornadoLGS (talk) 00:05, 14 September 2021 (UTC) I think it will be known in March 2022 what names will be retired. Any corrections?? Georgia guy (talk) 01:54, 14 September 2021 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 19 September 2021

In the section called "Tropical Storm Peter" in the "infobox hurricane current" in the "1sustained" parameter the code is broken. It lists "{{convert|40|kn|mph km/h|round=5}} km/h|round=5}}". Please remove the trailing "km/h|round=5}}" in that text. 184.57.147.234 (talk) 13:05, 19 September 2021 (UTC)

Y Done. Thanks for pointing that out! Akbermamps 13:11, 19 September 2021 (UTC)

Hurricane Ida Damage

Why is there already a number for Ida's damage? Where are the references to this $15B number that has been applied? The reference listed below when mentioning the seasonal effects does not state anything about the damage. We shouldn't make any assumptions of the storm's damage until there are valid articles about it, posted below.— Preceding unsigned comment added by Kaiser Jaguar (talk • contribs)

Edit: I see the source. Please copy/paste it from Hurricane Ida's article to the season effects section of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season article. It'll cause some confusion: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-30/hurricane-ida-seen-costing-insurers-at-least-15-billion — Preceding unsigned comment added by Kaiser Jaguar (talk • contribs)

Again with the image edit wars.

@AwesomeHurricaneBoss and Hurricaneboy23: Can you two please settle your issue about the image of Hurricane grace here and not in an edit war? You're not going to get anywhere by reverting each other. TornadoLGS (talk) 22:11, 14 September 2021 (UTC)

TS Sam

Hello. I just wanted to inform you all that Sam has become a Cat 1 Hurricane. Hurricane4235 (talk) 08:47, 24 September 2021 (UTC)

 Already done no need to inform in talk page, you can update infobox if the storm has upgraded or downgraded :). HurricaneEdgar 09:15, 24 September 2021 (UTC)

Invest 94L

Because Invest 94L is going to bring heavy downpours and possible flooding to Texas regardless of development, should we create a page for it before it develops? 47.17.48.231 (talk) 13:11, 12 September 2021 (UTC)

If ((94L) Tropical Storm Nicholas strengthens, perhaps into a hurricane, before making landfall, then definitely create a draft article; if it makes landfall as a weak tropical storm causing minimal damage, then maybe not. Drdpw (talk) 15:56, 12 September 2021 (UTC)

Nicholas 2 mph?

There seems to be a typo where Nicholas suddenly went from 12 to 2 miles per hour for 2 updates and then a roughly bumped back to 12 miles per hour an hour later. B137 (talk) 05:46, 13 September 2021 (UTC)

@B137: Nicholas' center reformed, which probably messed with its movement in the advisories. Akbermamps 05:52, 13 September 2021 (UTC)

Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 28 September 2021 (2)

Sam has intensified into a low-end Cat 4 and I want to make that change. Hurricane4235 (talk) 09:43, 28 September 2021 (UTC)

 Done HurricaneEdgar 10:11, 28 September 2021 (UTC)