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Capital controls
editIs there any evidence, or citation for the assertion that capital controls are "easily evaded?" DOR (HK) (talk) 09:19, 11 February 2009 (UTC)
- Easy to find citations on this, although not accepted as a universal truth. See article summary here or another here ("Empirical evidence, however, generally challenges belief in the effectiveness of capital controls"), here, and here. Google can find many more, google scholar no doubt too. But the "empirical evidence generally challenges belief in effectiveness" summarizes pretty well (and then economists try to figure out in exactly which circumstances).--Gregalton (talk) 07:58, 12 February 2009 (UTC)
What about China & India?
editThe statement "Hence, there is virtually no important country which has an effective system of capital control" seems to contradict the information given on Renminbi page that China (and India?) has maintained capital controls, particularly in light of the 1998 Asian Crisis. Helvetius (talk) 12:58, 16 October 2009 (UTC)
This quote (no important country which has effective capital control) is ridiculous. Unless we are holding "capital control" to some impossible platonic standard, we see clear examples of at least relatively successful (very successful, I would argue) capital controls in India and China. Consider the domestic debt markets of these nations - domestic bonds are so incredibly difficult for foreigners to buy that the JPMorgan GBI-EM Index Global REMOVES India and China from the index entirely as they are impossible to access for international investors. I'm pretty sure the fact that even JP Morgan considers this market completely off-limits to even the most powerful, wealthy investors shows quite well that capital is, in fact, controlled quite strongly for two undeniably "important" countries.
Title
editShould this article be under "Impossible trinity" or under "Trilemma (economics)"?VolunteerMarek 19:09, 26 February 2012 (UTC)
- I came here to write this exactly. I couldn't find any prominent source that calls this "the Impossible trinity", 79.45.21.49 (talk) 13:16, 4 June 2024 (UTC)
Error in illustration
editThe new SVG version of the figure is pretty, but misspells "Monetary". I'd fix it if I had the tools. Anyone else? 170.140.151.59 (talk) 16:10, 27 April 2012 (UTC)
The English in the last section is abominable. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 202.170.94.226 (talk) 04:29, 4 December 2014 (UTC)
Dr. Rogoff's comment on this article
editDr. Rogoff has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
Under policy choices, "To see why, consider this example:" it would be more accurate to say "To see why, consider this example (which abstracts from risk but this is not essential to the basic point):
Under" Impossible trinity and Historical events" at the end after "declare bankruptcy: it should say "The disorderly collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes in Asia was anticipated in Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995), who showed that empirically almost no fixed exchange rate regime had survived five years once the capital account was opened.
Citation: Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff. 1995. “The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 9: 73-96.
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
Dr. Rogoff has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference : Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Dr. Urban's comment on this article
editDr. Urban has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
1. 'The Impossible Trinity or "The Trilemma", in which two policy positions are possible....'The Impossible Trinity or "The Trilemma", in which only two policy positions are possible....
2 'Currently, Eurozone members have chosen the first option' ...
Currently, Eurozone members (among each other) have chosen the first option
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
We believe Dr. Urban has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:
- Reference : Vasily Astrov & Zlatko Bosnic & Vladimir Gligorov & Peter Havlik & Mario Holzner & Gabor Hunya & Michael Landesmann & Zdenek Lukas & Anton Mihailov & Leon Podkaminer & Sandor Richter & Waltraut Urban , 2007. "High Growth Continues, with Risks of Overheating on the Horizon," wiiw Research Reports 341, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
Dr. Benassy-Quere's comment on this article
editDr. Benassy-Quere has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
- The impossible trinity is not a "hypothesis", but a theoretical result from the Mundell-Fleming model.
- "Most other countries have opted for the second one (b)" is not true. Most countries refrain from letting their exchange rate float freely ("fear of floating", cf. Calvo and Reinhart). - Theoretical derivation: the example given relies on static (or naive) exchange-rate expectations. - Dilemma: the quote from Krugman refers to "corner solutions" (either free float or fully fixed exchange rate) rather than to "the possibility of a dilemma". The latter has been introduced by Helene Rey showing that, whatever the exchange-rate regime, monetary policy is strongly inflienced by the fed's policy. - Impossible trinity and historical events: I would use the European crisis of 1992-93 rather than the Asian crisis which in my view is a third generation currency crisis. References: Calvo, G., and C. Reinhart (2002), “Fear of Floating,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, pp. 379–408
Rey, H. (2013), "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence.", Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve of Kansas City Economic Symposium, p 285-333
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
We believe Dr. Benassy-Quere has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:
- Reference : Agnes Benassy-Quere & Amina Lahreche-Revil & Valerie Mignon, 2006. "World Consistent Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2006-20, CEPII research center.