Talk:Opinion polling for the 2024 Portuguese legislative election

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Polling Graph

Hi, I was wondering if, considering precedent from the last elections, it would be an idea to make a LOESS image graph for this page. I would be able to do so, but I just wanted to ask first to confirm this would be acceptable rather than the current wiki-based graph. CC @Tuesp1985, @H3nrique Bregie, @Bogdy23636374478, @Leo0502. Thanks Quinby (talk) 13:57, 2 February 2023 (UTC)

I like the idea, you should go for it. H3nrique Bregie (talk) 23:04, 2 February 2023 (UTC)

Hi Quinby. I second Bregie on this, that would be a very good idea. Good work!Tuesp1985 (talk) 02:58, 3 February 2023 (UTC)

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ISCTE November poll

The ISCTE poll from November should not be included in the main poll table as it's a scenario poll with Pedro Nuno Santos and José Luís Carneiro as possible leaders. The new PS leader will only be elected in 16 December, and until then all polls that show both men as "leading the PS" should be put in the hypothetical scenarios content. When the poll was released, there was a bit of confusion as it seemed that there was a thrid poll with numbers regardless of the future PS leader, but the poll report only has the two scenario polls with the PS leadership candidates. ISCTE Poll reportTuesp1985 (talk) 12:25, 12 December 2023 (UTC)

Just ISCTE being ISCTE NotTheRealDiogoFaro (talk) 18:30, 12 December 2023 (UTC)

Paraná Pesquisa poll

CC @H3nrique Bregie, @Mestre Big Brother, @Quinnnnnby, @Rodri24, @Pedro Schuller, @Danopt, @Upoorde, @NotTheRealDiogoFaro Hi there, there is a poll conducted by Paraná Pesquisas, a Brazilian polling company, for the Portuguese legislative elections. The link is here. The poll seems legit, but it was published in CHEGA's political newspaper and ERC, the media regulator, because the polling company is not allowed to operate in Portugal, has opened an inquiry to investigate the situation. The data from the poll was collected by Intercampus, a Portuguese polling company. So, the question is if we should add the poll in the polling table. Open to opinions.Tuesp1985 (talk) 00:35, 23 February 2024 (UTC)

I think we should, it's still a poll for this election. In other countries' election polling there are also some polls that are added to the articles that are illegal because of legal bans. So I think we should add it. H3nrique Bregie (talk) 00:46, 23 February 2024 (UTC)

No. The poll is not legit.

• https://portocanal.sapo.pt/noticia/346761/
• https://executivedigest.sapo.pt/noticias/chega-publica-sondagem-realizada-por-empresa-que-recebeu-500-mil-euros-do-partido-de-bolsonaro-erc-abre-investigacao/
• https://observador.pt/2024/01/02/jair-bolsonaro-grava-video-de-apoio-ao-chega-andre-ventura-para-primeiro-ministro/

Mestre Big Brother (talk) 14:26, 23 February 2024 (UTC)

Although it's undeniable that Paraná Pesquisas has strong ties to the Bolsonaro family, I must point out that this polling company has one of the best track records in brazilian elections, getting pretty close to the final result in both rounds in the 2018 and 2022 elections. As for it having pretty obvious ties to the brazilian Liberal Party, both Aximage and ISCTE-ICS have very clear connections to the Socialist Party yet no one ever asked for those polls to be removed, so I find odd that only now that seems to be an issue.

Aximage links to PS:

https://twitter.com/mlopes/status/1724362389347271020

ISCTE-ICS links to PS:

https://twitter.com/PSaserPS/status/1669629997986750465 NotTheRealDiogoFaro (talk) 17:25, 23 February 2024 (UTC)

According to usually reliable sources on Twitter there will be another brazilian poll coming out tonight on CNN Portugal by a company called "Duplimétrica", not sure if they are confusing it with the poll from Paraná Pesquisas or is it indeed another poll from another company. Duplimétrica has just been added to ERC list.

https://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/empresas-credenciadas-pela-erc NotTheRealDiogoFaro (talk) 17:32, 23 February 2024 (UTC)

The poll has been published on the ERC website and I added it to the polling table, with Intercampus as the polling company that conducted the poll.Tuesp1985 (talk) 11:46, 26 February 2024 (UTC)

Inclusion of ADN in the table

As of 27 February 2024, the last 3 Duplimétrica tracking polls have included the National Democratic Alternative, a party that is not in parliament. I think instead of getting into an edit war we should settle if they should be added to the table or not.

In my opinion, they should be added, since this is what is usually done to any party that is included in a poll (even if they are not in parliament), just like it is done for CH, IL, L and A in the 2019 opinion polling article, or PDR, MPT and L/TDA in the 2015 opinion polling article.

CC @Tuesp1985, @Mestre Big Brother, @Quinnnnnby, @Rodri24, @Pedro Schuller, @Danopt, @Upoorde, @NotTheRealDiogoFaro H3nrique Bregie (talk) 23:11, 27 February 2024 (UTC)

I agree, unfortunately Mestre Big Brother (talk) 23:28, 27 February 2024 (UTC)

Agree with you Upoorde (talk) 23:42, 27 February 2024 (UTC)

I think we should wait and see if this is just "statistical noise", like 0.6% that is round up to 1%, or a trend that holds. In 2019 and 2015, all parties, without seats, listed at the tables had shares of 3, 4 or 5% at some point, shown by different polling companies. In ADN's case, it's just one. I'm not against including it, but I vote for waiting a couple of days and see if they continue to appear.Tuesp1985 (talk) 00:38, 28 February 2024 (UTC)

I'm of the view that we should include parties once more than one polling agency has got numbers for a particular party. In many of the cases you have talked about, this is the case. In the mean time, it could be added as a note on the 'Others' figure

Quinby (talk) 09:03, 28 February 2024 (UTC)

Just realised that's already what's in place, so I would prefer to keep it as is Quinby (talk) 09:06, 28 February 2024 (UTC)