Talk:World War II casualties/Archives/2010/November

China

Casualties for the People's Republic of China have been misslabelled as casualties for the Republic of China which is Taiwan and NOT China. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 86.131.60.93 (talk) 15:11, 19 November 2010 (UTC)

• During the war the PRC did not exist. ROC had control over mainland China, while Taiwan was Japanese. This article talks about the historical nations that were fighting the war, not the modern ones which control the land now. --Raubfreundschaft (talk) 16:07, 19 November 2010 (UTC)

Japanese civilian casualties

I have come across this article by R.J. Rummel, which estimates Japanese civilian casualties at 672,000. http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/SOD.CHAP3.HTM I believe it would be a good idea to include this number in the casualty table. Unless someone objects, I will add it. --Raubfreundschaft (talk) 16:31, 19 November 2010 (UTC)

I object, R.J. Rummel is a dubious source, we need to treat his numbers with caution. How did the civilians in Japan die? Please explain the figure of 672,000, how were they killed?

2nd Objection. You cherrypicked the highest number of civilian dead. R.J. Rummel gives a figure of 2,521,000 total Japanese war dead Why did you ignore his total?

The figure of 672,000 civilian dead found its way into historical liturature by error in the 1950's. The figure 672,000 includes total civilian casualties in the air raids ,dead and wounded.--

Since there is no clear consensus on the civilian death toll in Japan, I inserted a range of figures with sources and the resons why there is a difference. We need to analyze a statistic and understand its details. If scholars differ, Wikipedia should point out those differences of opinion.Woogie10w (talk) 17:08, 19 November 2010 (UTC)

The US United States Strategic Bombing Survey has three different figures on Japanese dead in the US raids Take your pick!!! [1]

1- The Summary Section –Page 20- 330,000

2- Section # 55 Effects of Air Attack on Japanese Urban Economy Page 7 – 252,769

3- The Report Covering Air-Raid Protection Page 197- 268,157

Michael Clodfelter. Warfare and Armed Conflicts- A Statistical Reference to Casualty and Other Figures, 1500–2000. 2nd Ed. 2002 ISBN 0-7864-1204-6. Page 580

Air Raid deaths

A. Japanese Sources 299,485 dead

B. US Sources 260,000 killed and 412,000 injured. Total casualties 672,000

John W. Dower in War Without Mercy - Civilian dead 393,367 in Air raids, 150,000 on Okinawa, 10,000 on Siapan and 60,000 in USSR after war.

Estimates for Japanese civilian losses range from 500,000 Source:Gil Elliot, Twentieth Century Book of the Dead C. Scribner, 1972 ISBN 0684131153

to 1,000,000 dead. Source Sivard, Ruth Leger World Military and Social Expenditures 1985

The lower figure of 500,000 includes those deaths during the war caused by allied bombing and the fighting on Okinawa. The higher estimate of 1,000,000 includes additional post war deaths of persons injured in the Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and excess deaths due to adverse post war conditions.

The General Headquarters for the Allied Powers in Tokyo reported the civilian death rate in Japan in the first year after the war to be 2.1% compared to the pre-war level of 1.6%. Source Annual Changes in Population of Japan Proper 1 October 1920–1 October 1947, General Headquarters for the Allied Powers Economic and Scientific Section Research and Programs Division. Tokyo, July 1948.

Bottom line, there is no clear consensus on the civilian death toll in Japan--Woogie10w (talk) 16:54, 20 November 2010 (UTC)

Yes, Japanese military and civilian casualty figures seem to vary greatly between sources. Given that all the members of many military units were killed and their records were destroyed, the fireboming caused massive destruction to urban areas which were already experiencing a high degree of population change due to evacuations and there was a mass-program of destroying official records in the period between the Japanese agreeing to surrender in August and the start of the occupation in early September this isn't surprising really. It would be very misleading to present any single figure for Japanese casualties. Nick-D (talk) 00:07, 21 November 2010 (UTC)

The Japanese did maintain a listing of military casualties in the war that was provided to General Headquarters for the Allied Powers in Tokyo. John W. Dower gives an updated version in War Without Mercy. The Japanese government figures for POW dead after the war are also given in War Without Mercy. In 1945 the US War Dept did make a separate estimate for Japanese casualties that is sometimes cited in military histories. --Woogie10w (talk) 01:10, 21 November 2010 (UTC)

I'm very well aware there is no clear consensus for the Japanese civilian death toll. I picked the number because he states it as such: "The first part of the table (lines 2 to 42) calculates the number of Japanese that died in Japanese wars, 1937 to 1945. This amounted to 1,771,000 to 3,187,000 Japanese, most likely 2,521,000 (line 42). Of this number, 672,000 probably were civilians (line 32), virtually all killed in American air raids (including the two atomic bombs).". It's an estimate, like all other numbers given so far. I do not see how Rummel is deserving of more suspicion than the others, however I think I should add that I did not intend Rummel's number to be the only one displayed. It's much better to have low and high estimates. In terms of sources, I'd say that area isn't lacking at all. His estimates are being used for other countries in this article, including for Korea (which I noticed after I looked up the sources for the Japanese death toll estimates). Now that I've noticed that the figure of 672,000 is between the current low and high estimates, from 500,000 to 1,000,000. However, instead I'd propose to change the current total death toll from 3,120,000 to Rummel's 3,187,000, as it is higher. --Raubfreundschaft (talk) 19:10, 21 November 2010 (UTC)

I object, R.J. Rummel is a dubious source, we need to treat his numbers with caution. Please explain the figure of 3,178,000 how were they killed? We do not pick a number because it is higher, that is not a valid reason. --Woogie10w (talk) 19:48, 21 November 2010 (UTC)

The military total is known 2,120,000. The sources for the civilian deaths range from 500,000 to 1,000,000.--Woogie10w (talk) 19:54, 21 November 2010 (UTC)

Rummel wrote 672,000 probably were civilians (line 32), virtually all killed in American air raids (including the two atomic bombs).

Rummel is wrong -US Sources put the number at 260,000 killed and 412,000 injured. Total casualties 672,000--Woogie10w (talk) 19:59, 21 November 2010 (UTC)

Also note well R.J. Rummel's estimate for total Japanese war dead is 2,521,000, which is the mid range between 1,771,000 and 3,187,000. Read his table, his estimate is 2,521,000, NOT 3,187,000. I own hard copies of Rummel's books. His calculations are interesting. For example his range for total Japanese Democide is from 3.056 million to 10.595 million with the mid range at 5.964 million. The range of figures for Chinese POW dead is 287,000 to 1 million. Editors must excercise caution when they cherrypick Rummel's high range estimates--Woogie10w (talk) 22:14, 21 November 2010 (UTC)

This is a bit off topic, but why are the ranges so huge? Nick-D (talk) 06:59, 22 November 2010 (UTC)

The lower figure of 500,000 includes those deaths during the war caused by allied bombing and the fighting on Okinawa. The higher estimate of 1,000,000 includes additional post war deaths of persons injured in the Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and excess deaths due to adverse post war conditions. For example due to famine conditions throughout the Far East in 1946 the daily caloric intake was 1,530 in Japan compared to the pre-war level of 1,950.

Nick what I object to is the blatant attempt to push the higest figure for Japan of R.J. Rummel. Even his mid range figures are not accepted by mainstream scholars. If we were to plug in his high range figures on Wikipedia the results would be absurd. For example his high range figure for the Stalin era is 92 million, 32 million for the Nazis and 10.6 million for Japanese Democide. Anti-Japanese POV pushers on Wikipedia would have a field day using his high range figures. What readers should know is that R.J. Rummel's estimate for deaths of Japanese POW in the USSR is not in the high range figure of 3.187 million war dead, if we included those high range POW figures the total would be over 4 million Japanese war dead !!--Woogie10w (talk) 10:40, 22 November 2010 (UTC)

All of those high estimates do seem greatly higher than the ranges normally used by historians. Estimating post war 'excess deaths' seems intrinsically problematic, particularly as there are still people dying at younger ages than they would probably have lived had they not suffered ill-effects from the war. Nick-D (talk) 10:53, 22 November 2010 (UTC)

The higher range figures appear in accounts of Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Back in the 1970's and 1980's the anti-war folks here in the US would quote these high range figures without telling readers that 500,000 dead were post war era. We need to let readers know why there is a huge range.--Woogie10w (talk) 11:14, 22 November 2010 (UTC)

illustrations

They refer not to casualties in general but specific types of casualties: American military losses, the Holocaust, and Soviet repression of Poles. They should therefore go in the relevant sections. Discussion? (I see a discussion of the lede image in Talk:World War II casualties/Archives/2010/March; my own view is the lede figure should be a graph. DGG ( talk ) 00:55, 26 November 2010 (UTC) . DGG ( talk ) 00:55, 26 November 2010 (UTC)

Some people love to change and dispute these illustrations. A picture is worth a thousand words to some folks, but not to me. I want to make sure the numbers are correct and the sources reliable and verifiable. --Woogie10w (talk) 01:26, 26 November 2010 (UTC)

Poland Jewish casualties

The main table (Human losses of World War II by country) says 3 million Jewish casualties in Poland but the USSR table (Human Losses of The USSR in World War II) says 1 million Jewish death in Poland. Which one is correct? Where has the 2 million difference gone? 94.195.77.192 (talk) —Preceding undated comment added 02:04, 27 November 2010 (UTC).

Polish Jewish Holocaust victims, in 1939 borders, totaled 3,000,000, including 2 million within the borders of contemporary Poland and 1 million in the territories annexed by the U.S.S.R.[2]--Woogie10w (talk) 03:15, 27 November 2010 (UTC)