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2012 United States Senate election in Montana

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2012 United States Senate election in Montana
← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
 
Nominee Jon Tester Denny Rehberg Dan Cox
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote 236,123 218,051 31,892
Percentage 48.58% 44.86% 6.56%
County results
Tester:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Rehberg:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

Incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg who received 44.9% of the vote and Libertarian candidate Dan Cox received 6.56% of the vote.[1][2]

Democratic primary

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Candidate

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Republican primary

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Candidates

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  • Denny Rehberg, U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor, former state representative and nominee in 1996[3]
  • Dennis Teske, farmer[4]

Withdrew

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Endorsements

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Denny Rehberg

Results

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The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.

U.S. Senate election in Montana Republican primary[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Denny Rehberg 105,632 76.2
Republican Dennis Teske 33,079 23.8
Total votes 138,711 100.0

General election

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Candidates

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  • Dan Cox (Libertarian), retired businessman[7]
  • Denny Rehberg (Republican), U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and former state representative
  • Jon Tester (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator and former state senator

Debates

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Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain.[8] The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.[9]

Campaign

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Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.

As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.[10]

On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate.[3] Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010,[11] but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012. Daines would later be elected in the other U.S. Senate seat two years later.[5]

As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.[10]

The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers.[12] Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust.[13] In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation.[14] The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.[15]

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[16]

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Jon Tester (D) $11,699,935 $10,377,126 $1,334,858 $0
Denny Rehberg (R) $8,420,655 $7,249,285 $1,171,369 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[17][18]

Top contributors

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  • Although organizations are listed here, it is illegal for corporations to contribute to federal campaigns. Only political action committees (PACs) and individuals may contribute to federal candidates and in limited amounts. These lists actually indicate aggregate contributions from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families.[19][20]
Jon Tester Contribution Denny Rehberg Contribution
League of Conservation Voters $82,332 Alliance Resource Partners $36,500
Visa Inc. $47,400 Exxon Mobil $29,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co $47,000 Las Vegas Sands $25,000
Thornton & Naumes $46,600 Mewbourne Oil Co $25,000
WPP Group $38,350 Murray Energy $24,068
Blackstone Group $34,000 Devon Energy $20,400
Girardi & Keese $30,000 Arch Coal $19,000
Pederson Group $29,500 Yellowstone Bank $17,500
Comcast Corp $28,500 Marathon Oil $13,750
First Interstate BancSystem $28,400 Koch Industries $13,500

Top industries

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[21]

Jon Tester Contribution Denny Rehberg Contribution
Lawyers/Law firms $1,084,445 Oil & Gas $327,969
Retired $534,716 Financial Institutions $277,474
Lobbyists $506,931 Retired $268,693
Financial Institutions $438,763 Leadership PACs $267,000
Leadership PACs $345,750 Mining $169,318
Commercial Banks $299,818 Lobbyists $150,050
Real Estate $280,945 Real Estate $121,080
Insurance $211,009 Misc Finance $94,655
Misc Finance $188,750 Lawyers/Law Firms $89,338
Health Professionals $181,483 Republican/Conservative $76,855

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Tossup November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Lean R (flip) November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[24] Tossup November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[25] Tossup November 5, 2012

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Denny
Rehberg (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[26] November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 46% 48% — 6%
Mason-Dixon[27] March 14–16, 2011 625 ±4.0% 46% 45% — 9%
Public Policy Polling[28] June 16–19, 2011 819 ±3.4% 45% 47% — 8%
Public Policy Polling[29] November 28–30, 2011 1,625 ±2.4% 45% 47% 4% 5%
Rasmussen Reports[30] February 22, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 47% 6% 3%
Rasmussen Reports[31] April 2, 2012 500 ±4.5% 44% 47% — 9%
Public Policy Polling[32] April 26–29, 2012 934 ±3.2% 48% 43% 9% —
Rasmussen Reports[33] May 2, 2012 450 ±5.0% 43% 53% 2% 2%
Rasmussen Reports[34] June 18, 2012 450 ±5.0% 47% 49% 2% 2%
Rasmussen Reports[35] August 20, 2012 500 ±4.5% 43% 47% 5% 5%
Public Policy Polling[36] September 10–11, 2012 656 ±3.8% 45% 43% 8% 3%
Mason-Dixon[37] September 17–19, 2012 625 ±4.0% 45% 48% 1% 6%
MSU[38] October 9, 2012 477 ±4.6% 40% 43% 5% 12%
Public Policy Polling[39] October 8–10, 2012 737 ±3.6% 45% 43% 8% 4%
Rasmussen Reports[40] October 14, 2012 500 ±4.5% 48% 48% 3% 2%
Public Policy Polling/LCV[41] October 15–16, 2012 806 ±3.5% 46% 44% 7% 3%
Pharos Research[42] October 19–21, 2012 828 ±3.4% 48% 46% — 5%
Pharos Research[43] October 26–28, 2012 799 ±3.5% 48% 47% — 5%
Rasmussen Reports[44] October 29, 2012 500 ±4.5% 49% 48% 2% 2%
Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau[45] October 29–31, 2012 625 4.0% 45% 49% 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling[46] November 2–3, 2012 836 3.4% 48% 46% 4% 2%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Steve
Daines (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[26] November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 48% 37% — 14%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Neil
Livingstone (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[26] November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 46% 35% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jon
Tester (D) 		Marc
Racicot (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[26] November 10–13, 2010 1,176 ±2.9% 42% 49% — 9%

Results

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Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.

United States Senate election in Montana, 2012[47]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 236,123 48.58% −0.58%
Republican Denny Rehberg 218,051 44.86% −3.43%
Libertarian Dan Cox 31,892 6.56% +4.01%
Total votes 486,066 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

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County Tester Votes Rehberg Votes Cox Votes Total
Beaverhead 31.84% 1,532 59.77% 2,876 8.4% 404 4,812
Big Horn 67.39% 3,141 28.08% 1,309 4.53% 211 4,661
Blaine 63.88% 1,834 31.24% 897 4.88% 140 2,871
Broadwater 33.01% 995 57.47% 1,732 9.52% 287 3,014
Carbon 45.9% 2,691 47.55% 2,788 6.55% 384 5,863
Carter 15.74% 125 77.58% 616 6.68% 53 794
Cascade 52.47% 18,246 41.96% 14,589 5.57% 1,936 34,771
Chouteau 48.19% 1,374 46.33% 1,321 5.47% 156 2,851
Custer 43.21% 2,283 49.31% 2,661 8.38% 452 5,396
Daniels 32.6% 327 60.52% 607 6.88% 69 1,003
Dawson 35.46% 1,571 56.52% 2,504 8.01% 355 4,430
Deer Lodge 69.55% 3,122 23.37% 1,049 7.08% 318 4,489
Fallon 29.78% 422 59.28% 840 10.94% 155 1,407
Fergus 33.94% 2,063 58.12% 3,533 7.95% 483 6,709
Flathead 37.17% 16,223 55.38% 24,171 7.45% 3,252 43,646
Gallatin 51.63% 24,781 42.47% 20,386 5.9% 2,834 48,001
Garfield 14.31% 101 79.04% 558 6.66% 47 708
Glacier 69.6% 3,118 24.84% 1,113 5.56% 249 4,480
Golden Valley 36.25% 174 57.5% 275 6.25% 30 480
Granite 38.53% 657 52.49% 895 8.97% 153 1,705
Hill 58.93% 4,060 34.27% 2,361 6.81% 469 6,890
Jefferson 40.92% 2,685 51.65% 3,389 7.42% 487 6,561
Judith Basin 35.94% 441 57.13% 701 6.93% 85 1,227
Lake 49.25% 6,561 42.92% 5,717 7.83% 1,043 13,321
Lewis and Clark 54.34% 18,189 40.17% 13,446 5.49% 1,839 33,474
Liberty 40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.09% 61 1,002
Lincoln 34.62% 3,091 56.90% 5,080 8.48% 757 8,928
Madison 33.2% 1,516 58.91% 2,690 7.88% 360 4,566
McCone 32.9% 332 61.05% 616 6.05% 61 1,009
Meagher 34.93% 342 55.57% 544 9.5% 93 979
Mineral 42.66% 866 47.44% 963 9.9% 201 2,030
Missoula 63.49% 36,488 31.64% 18,184 4.87% 2,799 57,471
Musselshell 28.58% 684 61.14% 1,463 10.28% 246 2,393
Park 48.22% 4,260 43.94% 3,882 7.84% 693 8,835
Petroleum 24.41% 73 67.56% 202 8.03% 24 299
Phillips 27.2% 607 65.64% 1,465 7.17% 160 2,232
Pondera 43.53% 1,187 49.69% 1,355 6.78% 185 2,727
Powder River 23.32% 239 70.15% 719 6.54% 67 1,025
Powell 41.75% 1,167 51.2% 1,431 7.05% 197 2,795
Prairie 33.33% 236 59.32% 420 7.34% 52 708
Ravalli 38.65% 8,602 53.87% 11,990 7.48% 1,666 22,258
Richland 30.18% 1,406 62.95% 2,933 6.87% 320 4,659
Roosevelt 61.41% 2,269 33.42% 1,235 5.17% 191 3,695
Rosebud 48.0% 1,704 44.45% 1,578 7.55% 268 3,550
Sanders 34.31% 2,044 54.04% 3,219 11.65% 694 5,957
Sheridan 42.23% 812 51.74% 995 6.03% 116 1,923
Silver Bow 69.29% 11,673 24.62% 4,148 6.09% 1,026 16,847
Stillwater 36.66% 1,732 56.84% 2,684 6.52% 308 4,724
Sweet Grass 31.19% 661 62.67% 1,328 6.13% 130 2,119
Teton 40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.4% 212 3,313
Toole 34.01% 721 57.03% 1,209 8.96% 190 2,120
Treasure 33.98% 157 54.55% 252 11.47% 53 462
Valley 44.98% 1,749 46.91% 1,824 8.1% 315 3,888
Wheatland 36.79% 365 56.35% 559 6.85% 68 992
Wibaux 27.39% 149 62.32% 339 10.29% 56 544
Yellowstone 47.15% 32,565 46.44% 32,077 6.42% 4,432 69,074
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Source:[48][49]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Johnson, Charles S. (June 19, 2010). "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear". Billings Gazette. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
  2. ^ Cohen, Patricia (November 2020). "Montana". The New York Times.
  3. ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (February 5, 2011). "It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 5, 2011.
  4. ^ Dennison, Mike (January 19, 2012). "Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 20, 2012.
  5. ^ a b Johnson, Charles S. (February 3, 2011). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 3, 2011.
  6. ^ "2012 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Secretary of State of Montana. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 21, 2013. Retrieved September 24, 2012.
  7. ^ "Libertarian joins U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. March 8, 2012. Retrieved March 9, 2012.
  8. ^ Raju, Manu (October 5, 2012). "Senate battle hits Big Sky country". Politico.
  9. ^ "Debates to feature matchups in House, Senate and governor's races". Billings Gazette. September 26, 2012.
  10. ^ a b Mike Dennison (July 15, 2011). "Rehberg raises $900K in 3 months, trails Tester in U.S. Senate money". missoulian.com. Retrieved July 25, 2011.
  11. ^ Debbas, Jessica (November 13, 2010). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". KTVM-TV. Archived from the original on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
  12. ^ Gouras, Matt (September 30, 2010). "GOP attack ad shows five-fingered Tester shaking Obama's hand". Missoulian TV. Retrieved November 2, 2011.
  13. ^ McAuliff, Michael (November 11, 2011). "Ad By Crossroads, Karl Rove's Outfit, Yanked Off Air For Being False (UPDATE)". Huffington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  14. ^ Drajem, Mark (October 17, 2011). "EPA Says U.S. Rule on Farm Dust Won't Be Tightened After Review". Bloomberg L.P. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  15. ^ "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 112th Congress – 1st Session, Vote No. 157". United States Senate. October 6, 2011. Retrieved November 12, 2011.
  16. ^ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
  17. ^ Tester Campaign Finances
  18. ^ Rehberg Campaign Finances
  19. ^ OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
  20. ^ [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1 OpenSecrets
  21. ^ finances by industry
  22. ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  23. ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  24. ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  25. ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  26. ^ a b c d Public Policy Polling
  27. ^ Mason-Dixon
  28. ^ Public Policy Polling
  29. ^ Public Policy Polling
  30. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  31. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  32. ^ Public Policy Polling
  33. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ Mason-Dixon Archived September 27, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
  38. ^ MSU
  39. ^ Public Policy Polling
  40. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ^ Public Policy Polling/LCV
  42. ^ Pharos Research [permanent dead link]
  43. ^ Pharos Research
  44. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  45. ^ Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau
  46. ^ Public Policy Polling
  47. ^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 13, 2019.
  48. ^ "2012 Statewide General Election Canvass" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 5, 2016. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
  49. ^ "2012 General Election Results By County". Montana Secretary of State. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
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Official campaign websites

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