Wikipedia:Billion pool

This billion pool is for predicting the date at which the number of articles (as defined by the official article count presented on the Special:Statistics) in the English Wikipedia reaches 1,000,000,000 (one billion). The person who comes closest to the actual date is the winner (of eternal fame). The current number of articles in the English Wikipedia is 6,915,878.

This pool will be closed for entries when the English Wikipedia article count reaches 800,000,000 (80%), so be sure to place your guess before then.

2016-2029

• June 25, 2016 Citrusbowler (talk) (contribs) (email me) 00:42, 19 June 2013 (UTC)
• 20 March 2022 - It will very obviously happen on the day exactly after today. Duh. Jevil64 (talk) 23:19, 19 March 2022 (UTC)
• 15 January 2029 - mass Wikipedia and Wikidata integration lead to automatic creation and translation of articles. Wikipedia and Wikidata become less distinguishable and accept edits in a shared interface. Projects including university and medical school collaborations, cultural partnerships with museums, OpenStreetMap, and Internet Archive contribute greatly to Wikipedia, generating articles on places, publications, people, the collections of museums, and various topics in scientific fields including molecular biology and astronomy. Blue Rasberry (talk) 19:43, 2 April 2020 (UTC)
  • it would either be original research or not notable and so would be deleted

2030–2049

• july 2030 --imjust existing (talk) 21:45, 17 December 2023 (UTC)
• July 22, 2040 Wikipedia will be a website that exists beyond Earth. I predict that we'll see rules declaring fame equality. With this, anyone will have a mainspace biography. Imdill3 (talk) 07:59, 16 August 2018 (UTC)
• December 4, 2046 - Because robots will take over wikipedia and make an article about everything, including every stone, tree and atom in the universe. IWI (chat) 20:52, 9 July 2018 (UTC)
• March 10,2032. Bots will become so common that people are swamped in approving all of them and eventually they start making useless edits. 3OpenEyes (talk) 20:17, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

2050 or later

• January 1, 2100Tazerdadog (talk) 00:01, 4 March 2013 (UTC)
• February 22, 2022, at 22:22 PM. Thanoscar21^talk_{contributions} 12:59, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
• December 15, 2419 A.D. davidwr/(talk)/(contribs) 02:08, 27 October 2015 (UTC)
• 1 January 2500 - Trevoran (talk) 03:23, 24 January 2020 (UTC)
• 1 January 3000 Hanif Al Husaini (talk) 11:47, 23 October 2020 (UTC)
• 6 June 3128 - as we expand into the Solar System the rate of articles and editors will be higher. Thingofme (talk) 03:19, 10 July 2022 (UTC)
• February 29, 4000 Based on current model of growth it takes around 2000 years to get to 1G articles. SYSS Mouse (talk) 22:21, 30 May 2015 (UTC)
• May 24, 4278 — Preceding unsigned comment added by 183.37.185.49 (talk • contribs)
• April 6, 4407 - My birthday! J947 ^(c), at 04:58, 5 March 2018 (UTC)
• March 1, 4499 --Proud User (talk) 19:44, 13 December 2015 (UTC)
• October 30, 4768--T. Anthony (talk) 10:48, 28 September 2013 (UTC)
• January 1, 5200. What a concept. I don't expect to get notified of the result! But since it took almost 15 years to get 5 million (0.5% of the way), I'd naively extrapolate 3000 years to get a billion. But the topics may peter out, so I'm going to give it 200 extra years. Double sharp (talk) 16:21, 1 November 2015 (UTC)

  Well, at the rate Wikipedia is expanding, I'd say between 2027 and 2031.

  Reason: Wikipedians will invent Twinkle++, the ultimate tool, as well as thousands of bots that generate articles en masse. If one bot generates a thousand articles each day, and there are over a thousand bots, there would be over a million articles generated per day, resulting in around 3 years of work only. With human editors, that would go down to about 2 years and 11 months (give or take), if we don't care about existing articles and vandalism. Even if we do, it'll still be 3 years at least.

  Without the bots, it would of course take much, much longer, possibly until 2500. Apollogetticax (talk) 17:37, 23 June 2024 (UTC)

• 25 October 5298. JIP | Talk 10:47, 24 November 2024 (UTC)
• July 4, 6000. Deuteranopia 20:41, 17 May 2017 (UTC)
• February 11, 6465. Wikipedia very likely has shut down by this point. I don't think any software would live for over 4000 years. DuyWilliam1985 (talk) 02:55, 11 December 2021 (UTC)
• May 27, 7932, MainPeanut (talk) 20:12, 11 February 2021
• Febuary 1st 11273, (anonymous editor at 10th june 2023)
• This Name Isn't Available So I did the math, and if there's 6 million articles (as of typing this) and wikipedia is over 8500 days old, that equates to around 800 articles made a day. If this constant rate is kept up, then we should reach the 1-billionth edit in the year 5446. And I'm fairly certain that nobody reading this article (yes, including you) will ever live to see that year. So while it might not be possible in our lifetime, it probably will be in future generations.

Never

• Won't happen, at least it won't happen before doomsday. CFCraft (talk) 02:00, 7 May 2019 (UTC)
• Not going to happen. Ever. NealCruco (talk) 16:53, 25 April 2014 (UTC)

• Because Wikipedia would have ended by then! StevenD99 03:54, 25 July 2014 (UTC)
• Benica11 (talk) 22:59, 23 January 2020 (UTC)
• The "oldid" field of the first edit is 908,493,298 (nine hundred and eight million, four hundred and ninty-three thousand, and two hundred ninty-eight). Consequently, Wikipedia can be expected to break once an edit is made past the 908,493,297th edit. So, Wikipedia will never reach the billionth edit. --TypicalWikimedian (talk • contribs) 17:57, 28 June 2021 (UTC)

  Actually, oldid "1" is here, though it isn't the "first" edit. Therefore, Wikipedia has already broken. Maybe. Mako001 (C)  (T)  🇺🇦 12:38, 13 April 2023 (UTC)