Wikipedia:Billionth edit pool

This was a page to guess when the billionth edit (as measured by the "oldid" field) will be made (i.e. when this link becomes valid). Also, for those who want to joke around, guess what the edit will be about.

The date pool has been closed as Wikipedia reached 900 million edits on June 2, 2019 at 19:51 UTC. The total number of edits on Wikipedia is currently (as of November 22, 2024) around 1256.62 million. Do not rely on {{NUMBEROFEDITS}}, as it is significantly lower (namely by slightly over 2.5 million) and could easily be over a year apart from the oldid field by the time each of them reach a billion.

The billionth edit was made on January 13, 2021 at 01:03:33 UTC by User:Ser Amantio di Nicolao to the article Death Breathing. The winner of the pool was User:Art LaPella, who guessed February 12, 2021. The winner of the billionth edit topic pool was Matthieueagan: "The billionth edit should be on Starset's third album, whatever they name it."

Art LaPella

When I was about 10 I similarly won about 7 pounds of bologna by guessing its weight. Here are some rules for improving your guessing odds, although I don't see that I used them here: Look for the biggest gap in previously guessed dates, that is in the range that looks plausible. For instance, if previous guesses are 2015, 2022 and 2024, then the odds are that the date will be between 2015 and 2022. The rules here are the closest later guess wins, even if the closest earlier guess is closer, so guess at the end of that gap, not the middle. Avoid round numbers, or in this case the calendar equivalent of round numbers like January 1 - others are likely to guess those. Art LaPella (talk) 01:44, 13 January 2021 (UTC)

Art LaPella, GGs for that Happy 2021 Eumat114 (Message) 03:37, 13 January 2021 (UTC)

thank you Art LaPella (talk) 04:35, 13 January 2021 (UTC)

Billionth Edit Date

Only one guess. You win if it is before or on your guess and after the next earlier guess before yours. Try to keep guesses sorted.

2005

• Will be assigned to an undeleted article that was deleted before oldids were saved for deleted revisions. —Random832 18:33, 1 February 2008 (UTC)

2011

• March 27, 16:34Z Trvsdrlng (talk) 17:56, 1 February 2008 (UTC)
  • Which already passed. 24.14.73.183 (talk) 22:26, 18 November 2011 (UTC)

2012-2013

• January or December at midnight!.. if the earth has not been destroyed by then i guess the 1,000,000,000 edit is going to be.... a bot edit -.-. --190.158.215.220 (talk) 00:41, 1 October 2011 (UTC)
• October 17, 2013Qazox (talk) 10:24, 25 February 2012 (UTC)

2014

• April 1, 17:00 UTC GVnayR (talk) 03:20, 31 May 2011 (UTC)

2015

• April 1st, 2015. 24.14.73.183 (talk) 22:26, 18 November 2011 (UTC)
• November 4th, 2015 ypnypn (talk) 21:31, 2 September 2012 (UTC)

2017

• April 24 - Neutralhomer • Talk • 13:11, 1 November 2015 (UTC)
• June 7 08:34 UTC Googlemeister (talk) 16:20, 14 September 2011 (UTC)
• July 30 Daud 09:13, 29 August 2013 (UTC)

2018

• March 1. --Sociologist (talk) 15:19, 1 November 2015 (UTC)
• May 18 RCSprinter123 (talk) 15:31, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
• May 18 Anonymous (talk) 15:32, 23 February 2011 (UTC)
• October 1 Rainbow unicorn (talk) 05:01, 3 August 2015 (UTC)

2019

• January 01 13:59, 2 November 2015 (UTC)
• February 09 Gustavob ^msg•_{send new msg}•^Contribs 22:08, 1 August 2011 (UTC)
• April 2nd 2019. Answer to such other important things. Cheers! --Elfabet (talk) 14:28, 22 August 2018 (UTC)
• May 22 I was born in this day! :) --Brateevsky ^{(talk to me)} 16:36, 20 July 2012 (UTC)
• August 2 2679D (talk) 03:39, 20 January 2016 (UTC)
• August 31. Clovermoss (talk) 20:55, 20 April 2019 (UTC)
• November 17 (220.239.253.185 (talk) 23:46, 18 April 2016 (UTC))
• December 23, 2019: The Day We Make Contact. Oh wait, that was the year format of 2010: A Space Odyssey combined with the last possible date of the 2012 apocalypse (2 days after the more popular one). Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 17:26, 4 March 2017 (UTC)

2020

• 1 January at 01:01:01 UTC. Wynaut? Ben79487 00:10, 29 March 2019 (UTC)
• 20 February at 20:20:20 UTC. Neat, right? ;D – cool123vin ^(User) 13:20, 21 July 2012 (UTC)
• 14 March --Guerillero | My Talk 08:31, 15 March 2013 (UTC)
• 14 June at 20:00. Just a wild guess. YITYNR ^{My work • What's wrong?} 13:24, 4 March 2017 (UTC)
• June 24 There's no way of knowing until we reach 999,000,000 edits when this will happen, but I figured I could put in my completely random and wild guess while there's still time. Matthieueagan (User talk:Matthieueagan) 01:36, June 24, 2018 (UTC)
• 1 July Midnight exactly. – Plarem ^{(User talk contribs)} 20:26, 2 October 2011 (UTC)
• November 3 Newfoundland Standard Time minus 1 minute (NFST-0:01). Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 00:38, 8 April 2019 (UTC)
• 25 November Maybe. 98.30.255.186 (talk) 22:11, 2 November 2015 (UTC)
• 17 December (Bonus if the minute is xx:04) The actual date's completely arbitrary but it's probably safer to assume edits are speeding up rather than slowing down as articles are. A little over 2 1/2 years feels like a good estimate, all things considered. --Deuteranopia (talk) 18:07, 1 May 2018 (UTC)
• 17 June Definitely. —Noamaster88 (talk) 10:25, 23 January 2020 (UTC)

2021

• 19 January 2021 — GhostInTheMachine ^{talk to me} 12:52, 11 October 2020 (UTC)

  seems to be the most likely winner here. Happy 2021 Eumat114 (Message) 10:08, 11 January 2021 (UTC)

  sure, but my prediction was only a few months ago, whereas Art LaPella's was much further back — GhostInTheMachine ^{talk to me} 11:28, 11 January 2021 (UTC)

  GhostInTheMachine, in the end none of that matters lol. BUT WAIT, isn't this poll supposed to have ended in Jul 2019????? Happy 2021! Eumat114 (Message) 11:56, 11 January 2021 (UTC)

  Yeah, if those were the rules I could just guess tomorrow and beat him. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 15:26, 11 January 2021 (UTC)

  Very, very close. MarioJump83! 23:30, 12 January 2021 (UTC)

  Should be in the small hours tomorrow. @Art LaPella: gets the prize. Not sure what the prize will be, but I am sure that it will be awesome — GhostInTheMachine ^{talk to me} 23:46, 12 January 2021 (UTC)

  GhostInTheMachine, the question now is who makes the edit. I'm predicting 15-20 minutes from now Happy 2021 Eumat114 (Message) 00:49, 13 January 2021 (UTC)

  complete! Happy 2021 Eumat114 (Message) 01:05, 13 January 2021 (UTC)

  If I knew it wasn't whoever came closest I would've picked Wednesday and really fake won. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 01:07, 13 January 2021 (UTC)

• 12 February Art LaPella (talk) 16:47, 20 March 2018 (UTC) ← the winner. Actual date: 13 January 2021.

• 15 February - Skynorth/Cosmo^hey 12:36, 19 February 2019 (UTC) Per math. ~9.7 million edits/2 months. Extrapolated out, this is the date Wikipedia will reach a billion edits.
  • So close, lol. Good maths.  Nixinova   T   C   07:51, 15 January 2021 (UTC)
• 13 March Matt294069 (talk) 03:21, 25 April 2019 (UTC)
• April 20th, at approximately 22:00 UTC. TheHardestAspectOfCreatingAnAccountIsAlwaysTheUsername (talk) 02:30, 16 May 2019 (UTC)

That's Hitler's birthday. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 15:20, 11 January 2021 (UTC)

• 22 April My 25th birthday. —Frosty ☃ 05:20, 3 August 2015 (UTC)

Statistical underpinning of my victory Mill 1 (talk) 13:20, 4 March 2017 (UTC)

2022

• February 14, 2022. Assumption: the projected number of edits per month will increase by 14k per month. Mill 1 (talk) 11:59, 7 March 2017 (UTC)
• 15 February 2022. Assumption: Mill 1's prediction skills are really great but a bit off. starship.paint ~ KO 08:48, 26 March 2018 (UTC)
• 1 March 2022 at 04:17 UTC. —Gyaro–Maguus— 21:14, 10 October 2013 (UTC)
• March 31, 2022. Based on this. --Jakob (talk) aka Jakec 23:11, 22 January 2016 (UTC)
• June 12, 2022 --Proud User (talk) 19:52, 14 March 2016 (UTC)

2023

• 28 June 2023 at 9:29 AM Eastern Standard Time. Whoop whoop pull up ^{Bitching Betty | Averted crashes} 22:45, 2 September 2012 (UTC)
• 16 August 2023, at midnight UTC, going by a rough calculation based on a linear estimate of edit counts on the English Wikipedia. JIP | Talk 19:51, 1 February 2011 (UTC)
• 6 November 2023 at 5:07 [[1]], based on rough estimates and my birthday! The Perpetual Jerk (talk) 14:53, 15 September 2012 (UTC)
• 15 December 2023. Estimate from the time of the half-billionth edit. Double sharp (talk) 14:59, 3 September 2012 (UTC)
• December 21. I do think that hitting the billionth edit on my birthday would be uncanny, and a good surprise. Mgasparin (talk) 08:04, 30 January 2020 (UTC)

2026

• 24 May 2026 - 84th Monaco Grand Prix and 110th Indianapolis 500 (save for world wars, fuel shortage or bad series management) --NaBUru38 (talk) 23:32, 24 September 2015 (UTC)

2062

March 5 2062 at 14:00.2678 -RandomManFromNanoLand

4001

June 17, 4001. It's mathematically obvious.--Seonookim (talk) 06:37, 20 January 2013 (UTC)

Billionth Edit Topic

Yes, this is mostly silly. No non-specific guesses like "vandalism" or "rvv". Guesses can be either, the article edited, the exact content of the summary (but, again, not "rvv"), the content of added or deleted text, the number of bytes added or deleted, who makes the edit or, well, be creative, this is silly anyway. Guess as many times as you like.

1. Reverted edits by 3ffe:2a00:100:1337:7031::1 (talk) to last version by Jimbo Wales —Random8322007-01-29 19:09 UTC (01/29 14:09 EST)
2. Effects of RFID implants on humans -- Trvsdrlng (talk) 17:59, 1 February 2008 (UTC)
3. The Sandbox. 2³•3² 16:32, 13 May 2011 (UTC)
4. Vandalism to George W. Bush. The 1,000,000,001th edit will revert this vandalism. --Dial (talk) 21:18, 10 July 2011 (UTC)
5. Miscellany for deletion/George W. Bush (42nd). Since it is April Fools, well, you guys should know... 24.14.73.183 (talk) 23:07, 18 November 2011 (UTC)
6. It will probably be a minor spelling correction. --Ouro (blah blah) 14:43, 25 December 2011 (UTC)
7. It will be someone editing their prediction on this topic as to ensure they win the pool. Qazox (talk) 10:25, 25 February 2012 (UTC)
8. Someone vandalizing the page on Donald Trump
9. Assassination of Fleetlord Atvar. Whoop whoop pull up ^{Bitching Betty | Averted crashes} 22:43, 2 September 2012 (UTC)
10. Changing its to it's because someone meant to say it is. It's going to drive me crazy that no one knows how to spell anymore. Prettybirdie (talk) 05:07, 28 October 2012 (UTC)
11. Wikipedia Billionth Edit -EvanJM42
12. In all probability, an edit by Cluebot NG, or some version of it. 069952497a^{Comments and complaints}_{Stuff I've done} 00:40, 26 March 2013 (UTC)
13. Somebody replacing George W. Bush with, "This is Wikipedia's billionth edit!" buffbills7701 00:15, 7 October 2013 (UTC)
14. Warning User:ClueBot NG about vandalism 2Awwsome^{Tell me where I screwed up. See where I screwed up} 18:25, 22 October 2013 (UTC)
15. List of Pokemons, as this will eternally be the most important, and most edited, article on any Wiki.Mercurywoodrose (talk) 03:13, 13 February 2014 (UTC)
16. The adding of the mention of the page's appearance on the main page to Talk:Fuck: The most commonly spoken word in the English book (book by teens) - NG39 (Used to be NickGibson3900)^Talk 06:44, 11 November 2014 (UTC)
17. The main page being updated by hackers. Rainbow unicorn (talk) 05:16, 3 August 2015 (UTC)
18. Mick Schumacher, winner of the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix. --NaBUru38 (talk) 23:36, 24 September 2015 (UTC)
19. It will be an automated edit by a bot that is watching for the 999,999,999th edit so that it can announce that Wikipedia has had a billion edits. Of course, there is also the possibility that it will be some bored kid who changes the name of his country's leader to "butt face" while he is supposed to be researching a school paper. Etamni | ✉ | ✓  23:22, 5 November 2015 (UTC)

    Edit 999999999 and 100000001 was made by a bot... MarioJump83! 10:04, 16 January 2021 (UTC)

20. The billionth edit will be KasparBot (the most frequent editor) "migrating Persondata to Wikidata" (the most frequent thing KasparBot does). --Proud User (talk) 17:49, 20 April 2016 (UTC)
21. Obviously the billionth edit will concern the List of lists of lists, duh Mill 1 (talk) 13:08, 4 March 2017 (UTC)
22. It will be monkey-related. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 19:12, 16 April 2017 (UTC)
23. Or penis-related. Or involve ostriches, taxis or pregnancy in some way. Sagittarian Milky Way (talk) 01:59, 12 January 2021 (UTC)
24. An edit to something related to the Object Show Community or a random vandaspamvertising by an anon that happens to be a wikipedian wanting to get the 1Mth edit. Or the wikiholic list. ^{[citiation not needed]} SoaPuffball (talk) 10:38, 7 March 2018 (UTC)
25. A musical group. It has no article now, but it will be popular then. Art LaPella (talk) 16:54, 20 March 2018 (UTC)
26. Undeleted Wikipedia --Deuteranopia 17:54, 30 April 2018 (UTC)
27. The return of Willy on Wheels, moving George W. Bush to George W. Bush ON WHEELS! — pythoncoder  (talk | contribs) 18:33, 29 May 2018 (UTC)
28. The billionth edit should be on Starset's third album, whatever they name it. User:Matthieueagan (User talk:Matthieueagan) 01:40, June 24, 2018 (UTC)
    • Matthieueagan, You're close that this is about a music album, but not the album you're looking for... MarioJump83! 03:50, 13 January 2021 (UTC)
29. A Lowercase Sigmabot III on a talk page. Unless MiszaBot is resurrected, of course. – Ben79487 00:11, 29 March 2019 (UTC)
30. Since we can guess as many times as we would like, I guess.. an edit about
    1. Ford
    2. Mathematics
    3. Pennsylvania
    4. Slavery
    5. Orange
    6. Hippo
    7. Wikipedia
    8. Peanuts
    9. Jackets
    10. Harry Potter
    11. Joker
    12. Spiderman
    13. Superman
    14. Avocado
    15. Eggs
    16. Kirkland Signature
    17. Walmart
    18. Forge
    19. Libre
    20. Liberty
    21. Taxation
    22. Spinning
    23. Running
    24. Sleeping
    25. Goal
    26. Potatoes
    27. Things not for kids I guess
    28. HTML
    29. chess
    30. cheese
    31. jump rope
    32. elementary school
    33. literary elements
    34. sources
    35. links
    36. tyops
    37. anagrams
    38. pseudonyms [pen names]
    39. Oak
    40. Birch
    41. Honey
    42. The multiplication Symbol
    43. and Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana
    44. also any emoticon like '=D'                          AltoStev ^Talk 03:10, 6 November 2019 (UTC)
31. I also like the option to enter unlimited predictions...
    1. A deceased popular musician such as Elvis Presley or Michael Jackson User101010 (talk) 03:38, 7 January 2020 (UTC)
    2. Impeachment of Mike Pence --User101010 (talk) 06:25, 19 January 2020 (UTC)
    3. The Wikipedia article about Wikipedia --User101010 (talk) 06:25, 19 January 2020 (UTC)
    4. IPhone --User101010 (talk) 06:26, 19 January 2020 (UTC)
    5. Wikipedia:Billionth edit pool --User101010 (talk) 06:26, 19 January 2020 (UTC)
    6. An article that belongs in Wikipedia:List_of_really,_really,_really_stupid_article_ideas_that_you_really,_really,_really_should_not_create
    7. An unusual death from List of unusual deaths
    8. An unusual article from Wikipedia:Unusual articles
    9. Maybe it will be a bad joke or other nonsense that will be deleted. BJAODN lives on.
    10. My tractor is sexy
    11. Popular places such as...
        1. Texas
        2. Zimbabwe
        3. Antarctica
        4. Melrose Place
        5. Sesame Street
        6. New York, because I love Pizza and Bagels
        7. The fictional Cheers Bar or the real Cheers in Boston, Massachusetts
    12. Everyone likes to talk about the weather
    13. Something straight or something with a curve --User101010 (talk) 15:54, 23 January 2020 (UTC)
    14. Chuck Norris or Kevin Bacon or someone within Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon which is just about anyone.
    15. a pool prediction by User talk:JIP --User101010 (talk) 06:06, 29 January 2020 (UTC)
    16. Any type of Apple --User101010 (talk) 05:36, 7 February 2020 (UTC)
32. I import a gigantic public domain text about some obscure topic into Wikipedia. Koopinator (talk) 11:33, 26 January 2020 (UTC)
33. A random sports stat. Almy (talk) 18:08, 8 March 2020 (UTC)
34. Something about COVID-19. Probably. שוקו מוקה (talk) 15:39, 7 May 2020 (UTC)
35. An edit announcing that Donald Trump has issued an executive order postponing the 2020 United States presidential election, despite the fact that he lacks the constitutional authority to do so. ~ ONUnicorn^{(Talk|Contribs)}problem solving 22:21, 9 September 2020 (UTC)
36. A spelling correction by an anonymous user, acknowlege -> acknowledge in a biology-related article. The anonymous user's name's last character will be a "4". Brightgalrs (/braɪtˈɡæl.ərˌɛs/)^[ᴛ] 23:39, 20 September 2020 (UTC)
37. BREAKING NEWS: Justin Trudeau has COVID-19. It'll be made by an IPv6 address beginning with "2" ending in "9". Username⁶⁸⁹² _{(Peer Review)} 14:40, 23 October 2020 (UTC)
38. It will be an edit to Joe Biden. MarioJump83! 02:25, 27 December 2020 (UTC)
39. An edit to an article about a video game. (Or an article not about a video game... do I win?)  Nixinova   T   C   06:27, 3 January 2021 (UTC)

    Nixinova, you don't as the edit might not be in mainspace. I win. Happy 2021 Eumat114 (Message) 11:59, 11 January 2021 (UTC)

40. An edit that adds this highly acclaimed source into Wikipedia, removing a tag in the process. Happy 2021 Eumat114 (Message) 12:01, 11 January 2021 (UTC)
41. An edit related to the impeachment proceedings of Donald Trump. Scorpions13256 (talk) 01:21, 12 January 2021 (UTC)

See also

• The hundred millionth edit (which just happens to be vandalism)
• Wikipedia:Pools