The 2024 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arkansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arkansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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Although former Democratic President Bill Clinton hails from the state and comfortably won it in both of his election bids in 1992 and 1996, Arkansas is a Southern state in the Bible Belt that has trended strongly towards the Republican Party in the 21st century, with Al Gore (from neighboring Tennessee) losing the state in 2000 by 5.45%. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas, or even win more than 40% of the state vote, was John Kerry in 2004. The state's rightward shift continued under Barack Obama, leading to Arkansas becoming a Republican stronghold at the presidential level. In 2008, Obama became the first Democrat to win without carrying Arkansas despite decisively winning nationwide.
The GOP's popularity in Arkansas has become so pronounced that the state turned sharply against former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton in 2016, favoring Republican Donald Trump by 26.9%. Trump again easily won the state again by 27.6% in 2020. Republicans have held every statewide elected position in the state since 2015.[2]
Now a deeply red state, Trump easily carried the state for the third time in a row in 2024, this time by a 30.64% margin.[3] Trump became the first Republican to carry the Delta county of Desha in a presidential election since landslide victor Richard Nixon in 1972, when he carried every county in the state.
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe Arkansas Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 71,978 | 88.5% | 31 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 3,883 | 4.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 2,346 | 2.9% | |||
| Stephen Lyons | 1,442 | 1.8% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 879 | 1.1% | |||
| Frankie Lozada | 786 | 1.0% | |||
| Total: | 81,314 | 100.00% | 37 | 37 | |
Republican primary
editThe Arkansas Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 204,898 | 76.89% | 39 | 39 | |
| Nikki Haley | 49,085 | 18.42% | 1 | 1 | |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 7,377 | 2.77% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 3,162 | 1.19% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 860 | 0.32% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 600 | 0.23% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 183 | 0.07% | |||
| Doug Burgum (withdrawn) | 157 | 0.06% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 151 | 0.06% | |||
| Total: | 266,473 | 100.00% | 40 | 40 | |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[7] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[13] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[14] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[15] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[16] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
editDonald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College[17][A] | September 5–6, 2024 | 696 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 55% | 40% | 1% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[18][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Emerson College[19] | October 1–4, 2023 | 435 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights[20][C] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 58% | 33% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 385 (LV) | – | 53% | 35% | 12% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights[20][C] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 7.7% | 49% | 31% | 20% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 759,241 | 64.20% | +1.80% | ||
| Democratic | 396,905 | 33.56% | −1.22% | ||
| Independent |
|
13,255 | 1.12% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 5,715 | 0.48% | −0.6% | ||
| Green | 4,275 | 0.36% | +0.12% | ||
| American Solidarity |
|
2,141 | 0.18% | +0.04% | |
| Prohibition |
|
1,144 | 0.1% | N/A | |
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 1,182,676 | 100% | |||
By county
edit| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Arkansas | 3,951 | 71.20% | 1,503 | 27.10% | 93 | 1.68% | 2,448 | 44.13% | 5,547 |
| Ashley | 5,145 | 73.19% | 1,774 | 25.23% | 111 | 1.58% | 3,371 | 47.95% | 7,030 |
| Baxter | 16,253 | 77.57% | 4,341 | 20.72% | 360 | 1.72% | 11,912 | 56.85% | 20,954 |
| Benton | 79,907 | 62.14% | 45,231 | 35.17% | 3,457 | 2.69% | 34,676 | 26.97% | 128,595 |
| Boone | 13,968 | 81.63% | 2,854 | 16.68% | 290 | 1.69% | 11,114 | 64.95% | 17,112 |
| Bradley | 2,213 | 68.96% | 961 | 29.95% | 35 | 1.09% | 1,252 | 39.02% | 3,209 |
| Calhoun | 1,674 | 80.02% | 379 | 18.12% | 39 | 1.86% | 1,295 | 61.90% | 2,092 |
| Carroll | 7,470 | 64.74% | 3,812 | 33.04% | 256 | 2.22% | 3,658 | 31.70% | 11,538 |
| Chicot | 1,658 | 47.51% | 1,796 | 51.46% | 36 | 1.03% | -138 | -3.95% | 3,490 |
| Clark | 4,526 | 59.11% | 2,959 | 38.64% | 172 | 2.25% | 1,567 | 20.46% | 7,657 |
| Clay | 3,968 | 79.89% | 907 | 18.26% | 92 | 1.85% | 3,061 | 61.63% | 4,967 |
| Cleburne | 10,595 | 83.17% | 1,941 | 15.24% | 203 | 1.59% | 8,654 | 67.93% | 12,739 |
| Cleveland | 2,804 | 83.11% | 521 | 15.53% | 46 | 1.36% | 2,280 | 67.58% | 3,374 |
| Columbia | 5,367 | 67.59% | 2,466 | 31.06% | 107 | 1.35% | 2,901 | 36.54% | 7,940 |
| Conway | 5,893 | 69.00% | 2,449 | 28.67% | 199 | 2.33% | 3,444 | 40.32% | 8,541 |
| Craighead | 25,152 | 67.54% | 11,210 | 30.10% | 880 | 2.36% | 13,942 | 37.44% | 37,242 |
| Crawford | 18,615 | 78.10% | 4,753 | 19.94% | 466 | 1.96% | 13,862 | 58.16% | 23,834 |
| Crittenden | 7,028 | 47.87% | 7,362 | 50.15% | 291 | 1.98% | -334 | -2.28% | 14,681 |
| Cross | 4,753 | 72.74% | 1,642 | 25.13% | 139 | 2.13% | 3,111 | 47.61% | 6,534 |
| Dallas | 1,482 | 63.77% | 798 | 34.34% | 44 | 1.89% | 684 | 29.43% | 2,324 |
| Desha | 1,805 | 51.50% | 1,638 | 46.73% | 62 | 1.77% | 167 | 4.76% | 3,505 |
| Drew | 4,203 | 66.03% | 2,050 | 32.21% | 112 | 1.76% | 2,153 | 33.83% | 6,365 |
| Faulkner | 35,357 | 64.92% | 17,752 | 32.59% | 1,356 | 2.49% | 17,605 | 32.32% | 54,465 |
| Franklin | 5,582 | 80.07% | 1,232 | 17.67% | 157 | 2.25% | 4,350 | 62.40% | 6,971 |
| Fulton | 4,040 | 80.11% | 906 | 17.97% | 97 | 1.92% | 3,134 | 62.15% | 5,043 |
| Garland | 28,359 | 67.00% | 13,015 | 30.75% | 953 | 2.25% | 15,344 | 36.25% | 42,327 |
| Grant | 6,755 | 83.62% | 1,192 | 14.76% | 131 | 1.62% | 5,563 | 68.87% | 8,078 |
| Greene | 12,617 | 79.75% | 2,935 | 18.55% | 268 | 1.69% | 9,682 | 61.20% | 15,820 |
| Hempstead | 4,193 | 68.86% | 1,776 | 29.17% | 120 | 1.97% | 2,417 | 39.69% | 6,089 |
| Hot Spring | 9,226 | 75.11% | 2,818 | 22.94% | 239 | 1.95% | 6,408 | 52.17% | 12,283 |
| Howard | 3,246 | 72.57% | 1,158 | 25.89% | 69 | 1.54% | 2,088 | 46.68% | 4,473 |
| Independence | 11,023 | 78.67% | 2,689 | 19.19% | 299 | 2.13% | 8,334 | 59.48% | 14,011 |
| Izard | 4,854 | 81.92% | 949 | 16.02% | 122 | 2.06% | 3,905 | 65.91% | 5,925 |
| Jackson | 3,509 | 73.49% | 1,183 | 24.77% | 83 | 1.74% | 2,326 | 48.71% | 4,775 |
| Jefferson | 8,468 | 39.19% | 12,802 | 59.25% | 338 | 1.56% | -4,334 | -20.06% | 21,608 |
| Johnson | 6,766 | 74.69% | 2,107 | 23.26% | 186 | 2.05% | 4,659 | 51.43% | 9,059 |
| Lafayette | 1,589 | 68.34% | 698 | 30.02% | 38 | 1.63% | 891 | 38.32% | 2,325 |
| Lawrence | 4,608 | 80.96% | 965 | 16.95% | 119 | 2.09% | 3,643 | 64.00% | 5,692 |
| Lee | 1,181 | 46.87% | 1,270 | 50.40% | 69 | 2.74% | -89 | -3.53% | 2,520 |
| Lincoln | 2,502 | 74.20% | 813 | 24.11% | 57 | 1.69% | 1,689 | 50.09% | 3,372 |
| Little River | 3,744 | 76.42% | 1,084 | 22.13% | 71 | 1.45% | 2,660 | 54.30% | 4,899 |
| Logan | 6,567 | 80.04% | 1,464 | 17.84% | 174 | 2.12% | 5,103 | 62.19% | 8,205 |
| Lonoke | 23,225 | 75.85% | 6,790 | 22.18% | 605 | 1.98% | 16,435 | 53.67% | 30,620 |
| Madison | 5,885 | 78.46% | 1,491 | 19.88% | 125 | 1.67% | 4,394 | 58.58% | 7,501 |
| Marion | 6,230 | 79.35% | 1,501 | 19.12% | 120 | 1.53% | 4,729 | 60.23% | 7,851 |
| Miller | 11,842 | 74.94% | 3,769 | 23.85% | 192 | 1.21% | 8,073 | 51.09% | 15,803 |
| Mississippi | 6,963 | 64.97% | 3,574 | 33.35% | 180 | 1.68% | 3,389 | 31.62% | 10,717 |
| Monroe | 1,385 | 56.93% | 1,002 | 41.18% | 46 | 1.89% | 383 | 15.74% | 2,433 |
| Montgomery | 2,987 | 80.58% | 645 | 17.40% | 75 | 2.02% | 2,342 | 63.18% | 3,707 |
| Nevada | 2,002 | 68.87% | 849 | 29.21% | 56 | 1.93% | 1,153 | 39.66% | 2,907 |
| Newton | 3,063 | 81.25% | 644 | 17.08% | 63 | 1.67% | 2,419 | 64.16% | 3,770 |
| Ouachita | 5,056 | 58.61% | 3,412 | 39.55% | 158 | 1.83% | 1,644 | 19.06% | 8,626 |
| Perry | 3,559 | 77.64% | 923 | 20.14% | 102 | 2.23% | 2,636 | 57.50% | 4,584 |
| Phillips | 2,098 | 42.49% | 2,754 | 55.77% | 86 | 1.74% | -656 | -13.28% | 4,938 |
| Pike | 3,746 | 85.96% | 560 | 12.85% | 52 | 1.19% | 3,186 | 73.11% | 4,358 |
| Poinsett | 5,731 | 80.96% | 1,235 | 17.45% | 113 | 1.60% | 4,496 | 63.51% | 7,079 |
| Polk | 6,987 | 84.30% | 1,145 | 13.82% | 156 | 1.88% | 5,842 | 70.49% | 8,288 |
| Pope | 18,118 | 74.90% | 5,487 | 22.68% | 586 | 2.42% | 12,631 | 52.21% | 24,191 |
| Prairie | 2,628 | 82.13% | 524 | 16.38% | 48 | 1.50% | 2,104 | 65.75% | 3,200 |
| Pulaski | 57,977 | 37.67% | 92,038 | 59.79% | 3,909 | 2.54% | -34,061 | -22.13% | 153,924 |
| Randolph | 5,367 | 80.88% | 1,138 | 17.15% | 131 | 1.97% | 4,229 | 63.73% | 6,636 |
| St. Francis | 2,909 | 48.65% | 2,953 | 49.39% | 117 | 1.96% | -44 | -0.74% | 5,979 |
| Saline | 39,736 | 68.98% | 16,609 | 28.83% | 1,264 | 2.19% | 23,127 | 40.14% | 57,609 |
| Scott | 2,913 | 86.08% | 425 | 12.56% | 46 | 1.36% | 2,488 | 73.42% | 3,384 |
| Searcy | 3,305 | 85.42% | 511 | 13.21% | 53 | 1.37% | 2,794 | 72.22% | 3,869 |
| Sebastian | 30,719 | 67.59% | 13,652 | 30.04% | 1,081 | 2.38% | 17,067 | 37.55% | 45,452 |
| Sevier | 3,772 | 80.02% | 862 | 18.29% | 80 | 1.70% | 2,910 | 61.73% | 4,714 |
| Sharp | 5,978 | 80.38% | 1,316 | 17.70% | 143 | 1.92% | 4,662 | 62.69% | 7,437 |
| Stone | 4,808 | 79.73% | 1,089 | 18.06% | 133 | 2.21% | 3,719 | 61.67% | 6,030 |
| Union | 10,196 | 66.00% | 5,019 | 32.49% | 233 | 1.51% | 5,177 | 33.51% | 15,448 |
| Van Buren | 6,023 | 79.03% | 1,437 | 18.86% | 161 | 2.11% | 4,586 | 60.18% | 7,621 |
| Washington | 50,243 | 51.71% | 43,779 | 45.06% | 3,136 | 3.23% | 6,464 | 6.65% | 97,158 |
| White | 24,514 | 79.50% | 5,641 | 18.29% | 682 | 2.21% | 18,873 | 61.20% | 30,837 |
| Woodruff | 1,513 | 65.27% | 760 | 32.79% | 45 | 1.94% | 753 | 32.48% | 2,318 |
| Yell | 5,147 | 79.47% | 1,213 | 18.73% | 117 | 1.81% | 3,934 | 60.74% | 6,477 |
| Totals | 759,241 | 64.20% | 396,905 | 33.56% | 26,530 | 2.24% | 362,336 | 30.64% | 1,182,676 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
editBy congressional district
editTrump won all four congressional districts.[22]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 72% | 26% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 57% | 41% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 61% | 36% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 69% | 29% | Bruce Westerman |
See also
editNotes
editPartisan clients
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^
- "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014.
- "2016 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
- "November 6, 2018 General election and nonpartisan judicial runoff Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
- "November 3, 2020 General election and nonpartisan judicial runoff Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
- "November 8, 2022 General election and nonpartisan judicial runoff Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
- ^ "270toWin – 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ "Arkansas Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. March 5, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
- ^ Yoon, Robert (March 3, 2024). "What to expect in Arkansas' state and presidential primaries". The AP. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Arkansas Presidential Primary". AP News. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ "Poll: Trump has commanding lead over Harris in Arkansas". Talk Business & Politics. September 13, 2024.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Arkansas 2024 Poll: About a Third of Arkansas Republicans Think Trump Should Choose Sanders as Running Mate". Emerson College Polling. October 15, 2023.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
- ^ "Candidate Information | 2024 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff Election". arkansas.gov. Secretary of State of Arkansas. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
- ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0