The 2024 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Idaho voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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 County results
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As expected, Republican Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the Gem State, taking 66.9% of the vote to Democrat Kamala Harris' 30.4% and winning the state by 36.5%, well above his 30.6% in 2020 and his 31.7% in 2016, and the widest presidential margin of victory in Idaho since George W. Bush's 38.1% in 2004. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Idaho a solid red state; a sparsely-populated Mountain state with an overwhelmingly-White populace and an evangelical predominance, Idaho is one of the most staunchly conservative states in the U.S., with the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the state after Harry Truman in 1948 being landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and Republicans having never won the state's electoral votes by less than 13% since.
Trump flipped the Panhandle county of Latah, anchored by the college town of Moscow, becoming the first Republican to win the county since Bush in 2004; and with nearly an 8% margin of victory, having the best showing for a presidential candidate there since Bush's 16.3% in 2000. He also became the first presidential Republican to win Ada County — home to the state capital and largest city Boise — by a double-digit margin since Mitt Romney in 2012, and the first to ever win the White House without winning Teton County since it was established in 1915.
Primary elections
editThe Idaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-ran primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-ran primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fund firehouse nominations for president.[2]
Republican primary
editThe Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 33,603 | 84.89% | 32 | 0 | 32 |
| Nikki Haley | 5,221 | 13.18% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 534 | 1.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 95 | 0.24% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 91 | 0.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 40 | 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 39,584 | 100.00% | 32 | 0 | 32 |
Democratic caucuses
editThe Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 2,297 | 95.2% | 23 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 79 | 3.3% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 14 | 0.6% | |||
| David Olscamp | 14 | 0.6% | |||
| Jason Palmer (withdrawn) | 5 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 3 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 2,412 | 100.0% | 23 | 4 | 27 |
General election
editCandidates
editThe official list of certified candidates was finalized by Idaho secretary of state Phil McGrane on September 4, 2024, with the following nine candidates qualifying:[6]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz – Democratic
- Donald Trump / JD Vance – Republican
- Joel Skousen / Rik Combs – Constitution
- Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat – Libertarian
- Shiva Ayyadurai / Crystal Ellis – independent
- Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia – independent
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan – independent
- Jill Stein / Butch Ware – independent
- Randall Terry / Stephen Broden – independent
Despite Terry being the nominee of the national Constitution Party, the state party dissented and chose to nominate Joel Skousen. Terry then petitioned to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate.[7]
Predictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[8] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[9] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[11] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[12] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[13] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[14] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[15] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[16] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[17] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
editDonald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[18][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 309 (LV) | – | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Emerson College[19] | October 1–4, 2023 | 490 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 309 (LV) | – | 54% | 32% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[18][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 309 (LV) | – | 60% | 25% | 15% |
Results
edit| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 605,041 | 66.9% |  3.06%
| ||
| Democratic | 274,838 | 30.4% |  2.67%
| ||
| Independent |
|
12,809 | 1.4% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | 4,462 | 0.5% | 1.39%
| ||
| Green | 2,971 | 0.3% | 0.25%
| ||
| Constitution |
|
1,575 | 0.2% |  0%
| |
| Socialism and Liberation |
|
1,230 | 0.1% | 0.09%
| |
| Independent | 1,025 | 0.1% | N/A | ||
| Independent |
|
514 | 0.1% | N/A | |
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 904,465 | 100.00% | |||
By congressional district
editTrump won both congressional districts.[21]
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 71% | 26% | Russ Fulcher |
| 2nd | 62% | 35% | Mike Simpson |
See also
editNotes
edit- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
- ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
- ^ a b Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Corbin, Clark (October 16, 2023). "Idaho will have a presidential caucus in 2024 — not a primary. Here's how they differ. • Idaho Capital Sun". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
- ^ "Declared 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates". Idaho Republican Party. Retrieved December 8, 2023.[failed verification]
- ^ "Idaho primary results". Associated Press. March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- ^ "Idaho Democratic Caucus Results". NY Times. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
- ^ Corbin, Clark (September 4, 2024). "Nine presidential candidates qualify for Idaho's 2024 general election ballot". States Newsroom. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
- ^ Pruett, Greg (August 5, 2024). "Constitution Party of Idaho Holds Convention, Selects Presidential Nominee". Idaho Dispatch. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 11, 2023). "Idaho 2024 Poll: Housing Affordability is a 'Big Problem' in the Gem State". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Candidate List". VoteIdaho.Gov. September 6, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0