Talk:2023 Alberta general election/Archive 1

Archive 1

Missing Poll June 2020

I think this poll was missed. I leave this link here for those with greater skill to confirm/add! https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cbc-news-road-ahead-poll-kenney-ucp-1.5605087 Lilactree201 (talk) 00:51, 10 December 2020 (UTC)

Added—thanks! Steve Smith (talk) 13:48, 2 January 2021 (UTC)

Proposal to remove "Other" from polling graph

While it makes sense to include an "Other" column in the list of opinion polls, including "Other" in the graph doesn't make much sense: while the graph shows other parties' polling support over time, comparing "Other" from poll to poll is meaningless, since the parties included in the category vary from poll to poll. For example, the August 2020 Commonground poll has "Other" at a whopping 21%, which shows up in the graph as a big spike in support. But that spike doesn't necessarily represent any kind of shift in voter intentions; it just reflects that, in that particular poll, Alberta Party supporters (who made up around 10% of most polls' samples around that time) were lumped into "Other". Similarly, the many polls that have Liberal supporters included in "Other" show, on average, greater support for "Other" than do other polls. If nobody objects, I'll remove "Other" from the graph in a few days. Steve Smith (talk) 04:43, 28 September 2021 (UTC)

I don't dispute, incidentally, that the list of options on a poll will affect support for options besides "Other", as well. For example, a poll whose options include only UCP, NDP, or Other will likely register both higher UCP and NDP support than one whose options include UCP, NDP, AP, Liberal, Green, WIP, and other. But at least in that case the graph is showing respondents' actual declared levels of support for the options, even as those declared levels of support are affected by polling design. In the case of "Other", on the other hand, the graph shows wild fluctuations where no actual difference in declared level of support may exist. Steve Smith (talk) 04:47, 28 September 2021 (UTC)

WIP in the Infobox

The merger of Wexit and the Freedom Conservatives has not finalized yet, and there is only one poll including Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta. But if the merger is finalized and they continue polling above 5%, then we should add them to the infobox.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 22:40, 3 July 2020 (UTC)

I note that NebulaRoamer (talk · contribs) has now added the party to the infobox. In view of their numbers in the last couple of polls, I endorse that move. Steve Smith (talk) 04:06, 29 July 2021 (UTC)

Agreed. They have polled well above 5% in numerous polls now. Perhaps more importantly they also appear to be receiving meaningful coverage in WP:RS including in the CBC, Macleans, Global News and the Western Standard.--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 21:25, 4 November 2021 (UTC)

Nanos UCP number

Discussion for how to deal with the Nov 1, 2021 Nanos survey, where options were given for "UCP under Jason Kenney" and "UCP under a different leader". Should these two numbers be combined under UCP, or should "UCP under a different leader" be added to "other"? As long as there is a note explaining what was done with the "different leader" number, I would be ok with either option. Lilactree201 (talk) 01:39, 25 December 2021 (UTC)

Remove WIP in the infobox

WIP is now polling under 5%, the only reason the WIP is added because it polled above 5% in 2020-2022, I think we should remove it now — Preceding unsigned comment added by Anonymousioss (talk • contribs) 01:53, 1 May 2023 (UTC)

I agree. I don't see a great reason to favour them with infobox coverage over the Liberals or Greens anymore. Maybe even less reason, given how few candidates they've nominated. Kiltarni (talk) 14:13, 1 May 2023 (UTC)

I support removal. WIP have such weak polling now, for example polling below the Liberal party since October 2022, so having them in the info box seems like an unearned advantage compared to some other small parties. 86.12.163.51 (talk) 11:57, 2 May 2023 (UTC)

Green Party of Alberta

Could somebody re-add the Green Party of Alberta and Leader Jordan Wilkie to the header? The GPA is currently polling at 5-6% (in polls in which they are included), ahead of both ABP and WIP. 142.110.39.187 (talk) 18:35, 26 April 2023 (UTC)

I don't know if the Greens should be included or not, but we might want to discuss whether or not WIP should be in the infobox. They're not running any candidates (yet), and are polling in the 1-2% range. -- Earl Andrew - talk 20:45, 26 April 2023 (UTC)

I think the Greens would need to be in the ~5% range for a few polls, not just one or two. Alternatively, they would need a MLA to be in the infobox. I don't have strong opinion about WIP but agree that the fact that they are polling quite badly and have no MLAs means that they might not belong there. That said, I don't think we should be too worried about rushing to remove them. In the last Ontario election we were pretty permissive with other new upstart New Blue and relaunched Ontario Party. They were removed after the election when they failed to receive 5% of the vote. But if WIP doesn't run candidates by the deadline they definitely should be removed (same goes for any other party that doesn't field any candidates).--Darryl Kerrigan (talk) 21:10, 26 April 2023 (UTC)

ABP is polling 3-4% right now, and do not have any sitting MLAs. If 5% or MLA are the criteria, then no 3rd party should be included. 2605:B100:72C:F889:E140:149C:FEA:5FB (talk) 00:15, 27 April 2023 (UTC)

I'm opposed to the Greens in the infobox. They aren't even included in most polls. On the other hand, I would be in favour of removing the WIP from the infobox. They have tanked in the polls within the last year, and haven't announced any candidates yet.

At this point, the Alberta Party is the only third party that should be in the infobox because: 1. They got 9% last time. 2. They are included in every poll and receive around 5%. Skylerbuck (talk) 22:38, 26 April 2023 (UTC)

I oppose adding the Greens for now, there is not enough supporting data yet from multiple pollsters. I would support removing the WIP, as they have collapsed from their polling heights to below the 5% level and, as far as I can tell, are no longer receiving significant media coverage. So, they have lost the two reasons for which they were originally added. I support keeping the AB Party as they do consistently hit 5% - half the polls in 2023 so far have them at 5% or above. There is also a precedent on Canadian election pages that takes into account that their previous election result reached the 5% threshold. Lilactree201 (talk) 21:55, 28 April 2023 (UTC)

Echoing the calls to remove WIP from the infobox, and would recommend we think about doing so for the Alberta Party as well, particularly if they fail to meet a significant candidate threshold following the May 11 candidate deadline. Jebussez (talk) 05:30, 30 April 2023 (UTC)

My preference for the infobox as the campaign starts - oppose Greens, keep AB party, remove WIP. Hard to distinguish among the minor parties for inbox worthiness at this point besides AB party's previous result, and often reaching 5%.5.148.27.26 (talk) 11:00, 3 May 2023 (UTC)