The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Tennessee voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
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A Southern state covered entirely in the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points.
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[3] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former Republican President Donald Trump is running for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to qualify for the ballot.[5]
Tennessee is expected to vote overwhelmingly for Trump in the upcoming election.[6] Harris and Kennedy are expected to compete for second place.[7]
Primary elections
editDemocratic primary
editThe Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates
- 80–90%>90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 122,803 | 92.14% | 63 | 63 | |
| Uncommitted | 10,475 | 7.86% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 133,278 | 100.00% | 63 | 7 | 70 |
Republican primary
editThe Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.
- 60–70%70–80%80–90%>90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 446,850 | 77.33% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Nikki Haley | 112,958 | 19.55% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,947 | 1.38% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 4,884 | 0.85% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,874 | 0.32% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,714 | 0.30% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 722 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 533 | 0.09% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 352 | 0.06% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 577,834 | 100.00% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
General election
editPredictions
edit| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[12] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[16] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[17] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[18] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[7] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[19] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
edit- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 974 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 55% | 31% | 14% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 929 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 63% | 31% | 5% |
| Siena College[B] | November 5–10, 2023 | 805 (A) | – | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 872 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 61% | 30% | 9% |
| Emerson College | October 1–4, 2023 | 410 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 14–22, 2023 | 1,046 (V) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 34% | 11% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 42% | 26% | 31% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 29% | 8% | 16%[b] |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 974 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 28% | 15% | 10% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 933 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 25% | 16% | 8% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | November 14 – December 2, 2023 | 1,005 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 26% | 12% | 17% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 872 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 23% | 19% | 10% |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 844 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 53% | 23% | 6% | 18% |
- Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 14–22, 2023 | 977 (V) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 36% | 11% |
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 19–23, 2023 | 502 (RV) | – | 33% | 24% | 40% |
See also
editNotes
edit- Partisan clients
References
edit- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^ McCall, J. Holly. "Independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. submits Tennessee ballot petitions • Tennessee Lookout". Retrieved July 18, 2024.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ a b Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "March 5, 2024 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "March 5, 2024 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "Tennessee Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.