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List of election bellwether counties in the United States

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Bellwether counties in the United States are those whose votes back the winning candidate in United States presidential elections.

The strongest bellwether counties are those that do so most frequently. Of the 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States[1] only a small handful have voted in alignment with the winner in recent presidential elections.

Significant bellwethers

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Deviation in one election

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The following 30 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980.[2][3]

Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
Election year of deviation County State County winner Votes National winner Last deviation
1988 Blaine   Montana Michael Dukakis 1,460 1,402 George H. W. Bush 1912
1992 Essex   New York George H. W. Bush 8,278 6,717 Bill Clinton 1976
2000 Pinellas   Florida Al Gore 200,657 184,849 George W. Bush 1976
2004 Nicollet   Minnesota John Kerry 8,797 8,689
Sullivan   New Hampshire 11,434 10,142
2012 Albany   Wyoming Mitt Romney 7,866 7,458 Barack Obama
2016 Merced   California Hillary Clinton 37,317 28,725 Donald Trump 1968
San Bernardino 340,833 271,240 1976
San Joaquin 121,124 88,936
Stanislaus 81,647 78,494 1968
Winnebago   Illinois 55,713 55,624 1976
2020 Bremer   Iowa Donald Trump 8,294 5,958 Joe Biden
Cortland   New York 10,789 10,369
Essex   Vermont 1,773 1,405
Hidalgo   New Mexico 1,120 823 1968
Juneau   Wisconsin 8,749 4,746 1960
Marquette 5,719 3,239 1976
Otsego   New York 14,382 12,975
Ottawa   Ohio 14,628 9,008 1960
Richland   Wisconsin 4,871 3,995 1976
Sawyer 5,909 4,498 1960
Shiawassee   Michigan 23,149 15,347 1976
Valencia   New Mexico 17,364 14,623 1948
Van Buren   Michigan 21,591 16,803 1976
Vigo   Indiana 23,545 18,213 1952
Warren   Illinois 4,676 3,090 1976
Washington   Maine 10,194 6,761
Westmoreland   Virginia 5,318 4,501 1960
Wood   Ohio 35,757 30,617 1976
2024 Clallam   Washington Kamala Harris TBA TBA Donald Trump 1976

Deviations in two elections

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The following 95 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980:[2]


Comparision with random distribution

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The 125 bellwether counties have an 85% accuracy over the course of 44 years. While this might seem impressive it's not. The 125 most accurate bellwether counties from a 50/50 distribution would have an accuracy of 80%. But since the winner of the presidential elections from 1980 on got about 53.1% of votes (excluding third parties) the best comparision would be an random distribution with 53.1% accuracy. Then the accurary would be 84%.


Notes

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  1. ^ This county voted with the popular vote each time. The last time it deviated from the popular vote was in 1976.[citation needed][as of?]


References

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  1. ^ "How many counties are in the United States?". Reunion Technology Inc. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
  2. ^ a b Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  3. ^ a b c d e Obeng, Adam (April 26, 2016). "There Are No Bellwether Counties". The Huffington Post. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
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