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Talk:Myanmar civil war (2021–present)

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Latest comment: 6 hours ago by Borysk5 in topic Map change
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We should add a map change time lapse

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Latest comment: 2 months ago4 comments3 people in discussion

Similar to the time-lapses on the article about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a timelapse of the map day-by-day of the Myanmar civil war would help significantly in understanding the power dynamics and the general military situation of the war. Even if we don’t have enough data to make a timelapse of the entire war, a timelapse of one year, one operation, or even one month would be very helpful in understanding the conflict. LordOfWalruses (talk) 01:43, 10 August 2024 (UTC)Reply

I do agree this could be very helpful. However, very few credible/good maps exist from before 2023 and Operation 1027. Most maps show ludicrous resistance holdings (I've seen several maps show the KIA controlling all of Kachin State, or CNA controlling Hakha in the early war) or very confusing overlapping territorial holdings. Good maps from pre-2021 are, to my knowledge, practically nonexistent. I don't have the skill nor ability to make a timelapse map, but I could help with research and dates, if someone does decide to make a map. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 07:06, 11 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
I made a video on the conflict: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8EPpUB6cUM, though it's obviously original research. Borysk5 (talk) 08:35, 11 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
Even if the map began right after Operation 1027, that would be fine; anything to show step-by-step gains from then to now is welcome (though shorter time-jumps are optimal). LordOfWalruses (talk) 19:25, 12 August 2024 (UTC)Reply

Suggested corrections of the 8 august update of the "Military situation as of 8 August 2024" map

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Latest comment: 2 months ago9 comments4 people in discussion
  • Thandwe and surroundings have been seized by the AA, Junta just holds the southernmost tip of Ngapali Beach and the Maung Shwe Lay Naval Base, both very south of the Thandwe Town.
  • ZRA doesn't hold any territory anymore in Chin State, they are entirely base in Aizawl State and effects some raids in Chinland State once in a while, but now they appear to have made peace.
  • TNLA have pushed already more south and west from Nawngkhio Town into Nawnghkio Township, reaching Shwe Mote Htaw and Wekwin
  • The road between Mogoke and Singu is entirely under PDF/TNLA control

Wikidoge04 (talk) 18:32, 11 August 2024 (UTC)Reply

Do you have a source on the ZRA claim? Not disputing it, just wondering. CrazyMagicPickle (talk) 20:05, 11 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
Do you have a source for any of these- we can only add things to the map based on WP:RS per Wikipedia standards and policies. For Thandwe, I found enough for at least the town being taken- https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-regime-bombards-rakhine-coastal-town-captured-by-aa/ EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 20:31, 11 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
First of all thank you for updating Thandwe.
- About the Mogok-Singu road in the last few Mizzima daily reports about the war: The 148th Light Infantry Battalion (where the Mogok-Singu road and the Takaung-Singu roads connect) was seized by the PDF as reported there https://eng.mizzima.com/2024/08/12/12740 while the town of Zayat Kwin was taken as reported there https://eng.mizzima.com/2024/08/13/12776
- About the TNLA expansion southof Nawnghkio there are those articles by The Irrawaddy https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/war-against-the-junta/myanmar-junta-reinforcements-attacked-as-tnla-advances-in-northern-shan.html reporting fights as far as Shwe Mote Htaw and https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/myanmar-junta-troops-cornered-in-two-northern-shan-townships.html reporting TNLA into Mat Man Taw and Tang Hkam.
- About the ZRA I have no direct sources but my claim comes from the lack of reports of the ZRA still being active in Chin State while in this Wikipedia arcticle it has been reported that in early August CNF and ZRA leaders met in Aizawl, at ZRA HQ to discuss cooperation and peace between Chin EAOs. Wikidoge04 (talk) 22:14, 13 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
List of corrections made as of 8/12 update:
EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 19:01, 12 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
Worth noting it looks like the KIA has reached the Irrawaddy River from Mabein as well: https://burma.irrawaddy.com/article/2024/08/01/388043.html, https://yktnews.com/2024/07/175563/. Not a Burmese speaker so I don't feel confident putting these in articles anywhere, but if you wanted to check that out it could be helpful. CrazyMagicPickle (talk) 21:31, 12 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
Yeah Tagaung was taken a few hours ago but waiting for wikipedia-acceptable news sources to show. The Khit Thit article says Tagaung was completely taken- but Khit Thit is famously fast and loose with facts. The Irrawaddy article mentions the capture of the Tagaung Neekel factory without much more elaboration on where the factory is. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 13:38, 13 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
It does seem a little odd to me that Tagaung would fall so unceremoniously - you'd expect at least some reports of combat before the town falls. CrazyMagicPickle (talk) 16:26, 13 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
ZRA is still alive and well in Chin Region - see here. Borysk5 (talk) 06:21, 19 August 2024 (UTC)Reply

Map edits (August)

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Latest comment: 1 month ago10 comments3 people in discussion

August has passed with continued resistance gains! With this month's updates I've been trying to iron out mistakes and issues with the map. Honestly, all that I've found is that PDF control in Magway-Sagaing-Mandalay is likely far too overblown in some areas and too small in others.

Nitpicks, Suggestions, and Maps:

Indisputable Edits:

Disputable Edits:

Disputable "Disputed" Towns: (The issues I've found with the many of the towns supposedly being fought over in Magway-Sagaing-Mandalay region)
No fighting in past 4 months = X: This is more about a lack of sources to back it up, as I could not find sources about the towns labeled X.
(This part is a bit low quality as I was tired making it, also some of the settlements on this list are for the Template:detailed map. I'd suggest doing research if you're skeptical about one of my claims.)

IdioticAnarchist (talk) 15:56, 31 August 2024 (UTC)Reply

Re: labels; I sized them differently based on my perceived "relevance". Like Indian Insurgent Groups or NDA-K being at the same size as SAC might not work. I think written out is better and can standardise so that it's all un-abbreviated and at max 3 different sizes. (gonna switch out "Karenni resistance" for Karenni IEC.
When the first version of this map was made, we kind of arbitrarily drew lines where there was joint territorial control on the Thomas Linge map. We can do a pattern but it might map the map look even messier.
Your maps are helpful! But yes, to confirm to any other readers who back-verify, I've been going off the sources mentioned. I think Sagaing was something we didn't touch mostly because it didn't show up in headlines as much.
Re: DKBA/KNA in Payathonzu I believe last month we had news about KNLA essentially controlling the area, but it's a similar situation to Myawaddy pre-KNA seizure from what I've heard. But I don't remember where I read that.
I can likely make these changes Tuesday; more to follow. Just wanted to express my thoughts if any one else tackles it in the meantime. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 21:51, 31 August 2024 (UTC)Reply
Most of those "disputed" dots are because of clashes in the township, not necessarily the township centre. Borysk5 (talk) 10:20, 1 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
They should still be changed though, considering its misinforming readers. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 00:18, 2 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
Things that I didn't change:
  • Re: Acronyms; I've left acronyms in where it would just be too long to fit otherwise, standardised everything to 14pt or 9pt font
  • Joint control IMO is more important to show when two factions who might fight otherwise have agreed to join control like in Mongyai, Tangyan and Kutkai. It's simpler/more communicative not to put joint control for groups that are working together (e.g. Singu is also TNLA to some extent, Lailenpi is AA joint to some extent). It's harder to have hard evidence of joint control in rural areas (like shown on Thomas' map for example). The joint controls are really more of a de jure question rather than a de facto overview of control. Especially since PDFs are, de facto, local units using the same name not an organised army. Even in the case for this month, the Maw Luu update would be more accurate to show ABSDF (https://myanmar-now.org/en/news/myanmar-army-launches-offensive-to-retake-maw-luu-from-resistance/) not PDF if we want to go into de jure control.
  • RCSS & SSPP definitely control more but unfortunately, user-generated content from weibo is not an RS for wikipedia. As such, I haven't changed the SSPP-RCSS control based on that map
  • Unfortunately Nathan Ruser doesn't publish those maps elsewhere as far as I can tell, user-generated content on twitter or google maps is not an RS for wikipedia. Maybe we can pressure ASPI to publish them.
  • Nyaungshwe news says 32 km from Nyaungshwe. Irresponsible reporting; it's nowhere near Inle Lake (also already represented by the PDF blob west of Inle)
  • Loihtwea already on the PNLA/PNA border
  • Some sources showing contestation in Sagaing towns: Tabayin contestation, Myinmu contestation
EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 20:34, 2 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
For clarity and future reference I've put the full list of changes I made below:
Other Rakhine changes were made by @Borysk5 and verified by me. EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 20:35, 2 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
Great map as usual! There's just a few things I noticed.
  • RCSS bases along Myanmar-Thailand border not shown (shown in the SHRF source, labeled as IDP camps but stated to be controlled by RCSS)
  • AA captured Ngapali beach and other junta holdout in Thandwe
  • Isn't this map based off of user-generated content from Twitter? Thomas Van Linge, to my knowledge, doesn't post his maps in any "formal" way (I could be wrong though). If the map is based of a Twitter map created by a journalist, why cant we update it using a Twitter map created by a journalist?
  • Moebye should be disputed
  • KIA in Nam Phat Kar not shown
Like I said, great map as usual! IdioticAnarchist (talk) 03:29, 5 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
  • Ah yeah RCSS IDP control can be added
  • I thought that hold out was the naval base not the beach. Beach is taken
  • Fair point, though it was originally because there were so few maps. I can incorporate Ruser at least
  • source for Mobye?
  • Nam Phat Kar is shown as KIA control. Your imgur map is looking at Namkham, Namphat kar is further east
EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 16:18, 5 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
IdioticAnarchist (talk) 17:56, 5 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
Map updated with:
  • RCSS camps added on Wa-south border
  • AA Ngapali updated
  • Bhamo, Tabayin and Myingyan maps updated to correspond with Ruser sources
  • Mobye contested
EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 21:07, 5 September 2024 (UTC)Reply

Additional section on junta offensive?

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Latest comment: 15 days ago8 comments4 people in discussion

I’ve noticed that the last edit included a very narrow but deep push by the junta into KNLA-controlled territory. (Specifically, it looks like the offensive is heading towards the city of Papun.) Given that this is clearly something new that isn’t a regular engagement in the war, I feel like it should be added into the timeline (if it hasn’t already). LordOfWalruses (talk) 20:39, 28 September 2024 (UTC)Reply

I thought that was already included somewhere. Truth be told the post Laukkai section is such a mess but this is what we get for all the broad analysis being hidden behind closed doors. 21:17, 28 September 2024 (UTC) EmeraldRange (talk/contribs) 21:17, 28 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
Well that sounds like a rough situation. Hopefully a section on the Papun offensive can be found/made. LordOfWalruses (talk) 03:49, 29 September 2024 (UTC)Reply
I'm quite sure that the junta already controlled this area before the edit, and the edit was just to clarify the area. IdioticAnarchist (talk) 20:14, 2 October 2024 (UTC)Reply
I see. Any specific reason as to why the junta’s control penetrates so deep into KNLA territory like that, or is it just a coincidence? LordOfWalruses (talk) 21:51, 2 October 2024 (UTC)Reply
I haven't really paid too much attention to the main article, I have a feeling when the aftermath of Yagi settles, there might be new reasons to make new sections. Atm the situation in Kayah state is a bit of an question mark considering the damage the typhoon has done with massive impact to civilians. Idk, but logically, one could imagine that it too could affect any potential offensives by either side. As to the current information, I would bake it into the current sections and just make the text flow logically. However if anyone wishes to make new section for the offensives by the Tatmadaw, then there's a source here [1] with their names and other such. Kennet Mattfolk (talk) 18:57, 4 October 2024 (UTC)Reply
Yeah that makes sense. I would appreciate more information as you listed, though that source should be taken with a pinch of salt considering how it’s an opinion piece. LordOfWalruses (talk) 00:49, 5 October 2024 (UTC)Reply
The way I used it was for the names and a quote. Then stating it's an anasysis. I know wikipedia has it's source recomendations to editors, however, imo most are ok if one uses them properly for what they are. Kennet Mattfolk (talk) 09:15, 5 October 2024 (UTC)Reply

References

  1. ^ https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/analysis/myanmar-junta-counteroffensives-failing-across-country-analysts.html

Map change

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Latest comment: 6 hours ago2 comments2 people in discussion

Should we change the map to October? 38.123.109.228 (talk) 08:40, 18 October 2024 (UTC)Reply

Done. Borysk5 (talk) 10:07, 20 October 2024 (UTC)Reply
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