Talk:2024 Portuguese legislative election

Requested move 15 March 2022

The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

The result of the move request was: Consensus to move. There is consensus to move, however a redirect page already exists at the target which needs to be deleted first in order to make the move. (closed by non-admin page mover) ---CX Zoom(^he/_him) (^{let's talk}|_contribs) 07:46, 26 March 2022 (UTC)

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• 2026 Portuguese legislative election → Next Portuguese legislative election
• Opinion polling for the 2026 Portuguese legislative election → Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election

– As per WP:NCELECT, when it says that "For future elections of uncertain date, use the format "Next [country name or adjectival form] [type] election(s)". The election is not fixed for 2026, and one can be held earlier if a snap election is called (indeed, this was the case for the latest 2022 Portuguese legislative election). Impru20^talk 20:35, 15 March 2022 (UTC)

• Comment — Although this can theoretically become a snap election according to Portuguese law and be held earlier than 2026, this is an unlikely outcome, given that the previous election has awarded the ruling socialists an absolute majority — which means (for those who don't know it) that only a schism within the party, or a dissolution of Parliament by initiative of the President, could force a snap election. I have no idea as to how this fact implies that the article's title should be treated, but I would say that we should do as has been common practice specifically for elections that take place after absolute majorities in countries which allow for snap elections, not for all elections in such countries. (In Portugal, within Wikipedia's period of existence, this has only happened one time, in 2005, followed by the 2009 election.) LongLivePortugal (talk) 18:23, 16 March 2022 (UTC)

• WP:NCELECT is very straightforward: only future elections with a fixed date (i.e. 2024 United States presidential election) should show the year in their name. When the date is uncertain and/or there is a legal chance of a snap election being held, then "Next" is used. See, for instance, what happens for Next German federal election, which is more likely to be held in 2025 than the Portuguese election is for 2026, and still, "Next" is used because a snap election is legally possible. It is likely? No, but that does not correspond to us to evaluate. We are not who to value the odds and/or chances of a snap election taking place: even if low, those mean that "2026 Portuguese legislative election" is already an inaccurate title (or, at the least, more inaccurate than "Next Portuguese legislative election") with the information we have as of currently, and in violation of WP:CRYSTAL. Impru20^talk 06:02, 17 March 2022 (UTC)

• I agree with your arguments. In that case, and especially if a practical precedent has been set with other elections such as the German one, I agree and support the change. LongLivePortugal (talk) 22:15, 17 March 2022 (UTC)

• Hi there! When I created the page, I wanted to put on the title "Next Portuguese legislative elections", but somehow, I had difficulty in unlinking the 2022 election from the Next election page, and put the title 2026, in the hope that in a couple of weeks it would be easier to change the title. I approve the title change, because we're not 100% sure when the election will happen. LongLivePortugal is right to say that when governments have majorities in Portugal, it's unusual for them to colapse during their 4-year terms, the only exceptions are the AD collapse in 1982 and the PSD/CDS collapse in 2004. However, because there's also the rumour that António Costa could resign in 2024 to become President of the European Council and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has, privately, stated that he would call a snap election in this event, it's one more reason why we should, again, put as title page Next Portuguese legislative elections, and also change the polling page title.Tuesp1985 (talk) 19:53, 16 March 2022 (UTC)

• I agree with you. I would just like to make a correction on your statement about the two historical exceptions you mentioned: the AD was a coalition between three parties (PSD, CDS and PPM), and PSD/CDS was also a government coalition. I was referring, of course, to an absolute majority of a single party, which evidently makes a collapse less likely than with a coalition. This has already happened thrice before this year (in 1987, 1991 and 2005) and it has never led to a collapse. I just wanted to clarify my point. LongLivePortugal (talk) 22:15, 17 March 2022 (UTC)

• Comment: I believe there's a consensus that the title page can be changed to Next Portuguese legislative election.Tuesp1985 (talk) 19:53, 25 March 2022 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion

The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion:

• Luis-montenegro-psd.png

Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. —Community Tech bot (talk) 00:52, 9 October 2022 (UTC)

Infobox election: Smaller or with pictures?

After ValenciaThunderbolt change to a shorter table, decided to open a discussion to make it definitive or not. What do you guys think? For me, it's fine, just need to adjust the constituency map, but if there's a majority in favour of the previous version, fine by me also.Tuesp1985 (talk) 16:40, 4 February 2023 (UTC)

A Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion

The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page or its Wikidata item has been nominated for deletion:

• Luis Montenegro Imagem Oficial.jpg

Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. —Community Tech bot (talk) 02:48, 25 April 2023 (UTC)

Democratic Alliance

With the announcement of a coalition between PSD and CDS, a question arose: Should the coalition be linked to the PSD/CDS coalition page or the 1979 Democratic Alliance page? Because this coalition is just between PSD and CDS, my position is that it should be linked to the PSD/CDS coalition page as there are other PSD/CDS/PPM coalitions in other ballots, mainly regional and local. However, open for debate.Tuesp1985 (talk) 22:55, 21 December 2023 (UTC)

This coalition was announced by the official PSD page as the reformation of the original Democratic Alliance that would include PSD, CDS and some independent figures. PPM refused to join this alliance, so it is just the same 1979 alliance without PPM, since the reason the Democratic Alliance was created in 1979 was also to include PSD, CDS and independent politicians. And since the name is the same as the 1979-1983 coalition, it should be labeled as AD and linked to the Democratic Alliance page. H3nrique Bregie (talk) 23:18, 21 December 2023 (UTC)

My opinion is that we should not confuse PSD/CDS coalitions with other PSD/CDS/PPM coalitions, the logos say it all. A summary in both pages could be a solution.Tuesp1985 (talk) 23:24, 21 December 2023 (UTC)

In the Portuguese wiki page, the 2024 AD coalition is linked to the PSD/CDS coalition page. But, in the AD wiki page, there is a summary of the new coalition details and a table for the results of this new coalition. This could be used in the English version. What you think H3nrique Bregie?Tuesp1985 (talk) 23:35, 21 December 2023 (UTC)

I think it should be linked as AD, since the same name is used and it was announced as a reformation of the old alliance. But using the AD name and color while linking it to the PSD/CDS wiki page could be a solution. H3nrique Bregie (talk) 09:42, 22 December 2023 (UTC)

Ok, that could work. Will change the color scheme then.Tuesp1985 (talk) 11:41, 22 December 2023 (UTC)

Reporting 97,5?

Reporting shouldn't be by the number of freguesias but instead by the total votes counted, Lisbon and Porto have a disproportionately higher number of electors. The Blue Rider 22:51, 10 March 2024 (UTC)

You are right. Ideally you would report by total number of votes. However the issue is that the number reported is the number of freguesias, not the approximate vote share counted. So figuring out the vote share is quite tedious and borderline original research. Gust Justice (talk) 23:48, 10 March 2024 (UTC)

Abroad votes count

Does someone know when the final votes from Portuguese voters living abroad will be released? 2003:DA:C70C:7100:3114:8FB0:EF36:4693 (talk) 04:23, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

I'm wondering the same thing. With the results this close, those four seats could make a material difference to the outcome. Any idea when they will be announced? Modest Genius ^talk 12:15, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

According to this article, they will be counted on 20 March. Gust Justice (talk) 14:33, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

Thanks, I've added that to the article. I'll also nominate for ITN now, rather than waiting for those four seats. Modest Genius ^talk 15:26, 12 March 2024 (UTC)

Thank you. 2003:DA:C715:D000:7150:2C07:EBB2:B9EE (talk) 03:17, 13 March 2024 (UTC)

Maps colors

CC @Gust Justice, @Ngfsmg many thanks for your map contributions. Just one point, could you change the colors of the maps to the AD color scheme in the english page, in order to make it uniform with the other map in the page and the rest of the page?. I'll await feedback. Thanks.Tuesp1985 (talk) 23:29, 13 March 2024 (UTC)

I could make a new version with that color scheme, but don't you think using two shades of blue is a bad idea? I was looking at the map that was already here, and if I didn't know Chega won Faro and only Faro I'd have a lot of trouble distinguishing it from the AD won districts Ngfsmg (talk) 01:00, 14 March 2024 (UTC)

Using the english color scheme, you can distinguish AD from Chega, as Chega's color is an almost black blue, and AD is a lighter blue. This, of course, in your municipality map. In the district map, maybe using more lighter shades for AD and much darker for Chega may work. What do you think?Tuesp1985 (talk) 01:20, 14 March 2024 (UTC)

Bar box question

A question regarding the bar box: Should we include coalitions totals in the bar box or the current format of individual lists, regardless of being part of a coalition? If this is changed, the bar boxes of the 1979, 1980, 2015 and 2022 elections have to be updated. Open for debate.Tuesp1985 (talk) 15:42, 14 March 2024 (UTC)

Universality of participation.

Can a party drop out in some provinces or no? This point should be addressed in the "system" section. --95.24.65.191 (talk) 17:52, 16 March 2024 (UTC)

Yes, parties are not obligated to run in every single district.Tuesp1985 (talk) 23:45, 17 March 2024 (UTC)

AD-ADN undue weight?

In the results section, a lot of weight is given to the AD's allegation that the ADN stole votes by having similar initials. It has not been made clear that this is just a hypothesis by an involved party, the AD. I feel like the ADN response should be added, though that could be sidetracking a page about an election to a page about an unproven accusation by a major party with reason to be bitter through not getting a majority, and a minor party that won no seats.

In this source, published ten days before the election, the ADN leader says that Montenegro's allegation is assuming that the Portuguese people can't read [1]. He also makes the salient point that in 50 years of democracy in the country, it has been a two-party system between the Socialist Party (PS) and Social Democratic Party (PSD). Unknown Temptation (talk) 11:55, 23 March 2024 (UTC)

Sure, ADN's follow up response should be added to the text summary.Tuesp1985 (talk) 00:55, 25 March 2024 (UTC)

Invalid votes

In this election exists a huge amount of invalid votes in those electoral districts abroad, to the case that some digits in the result may have been bent. For example instead of decreasing, the percentage of vote received by AD should have an increase of 0.3% from 2022, if dismissing all invalid votes. I wonder what set of number we should adopt?— An Macanese 14:05, 31 March 2024 (UTC)

Blank and invalid ballots are not separated from valid balots in Portugal and are counted in the overall share of vote. The election results page, Legislativas 2024, shows this. Why is it like this? I don't know, but since the first elections in 1975, blank/invalids have always been counted with the valid ballots.Tuesp1985 (talk) 15:34, 1 April 2024 (UTC)

If you seek the Diário da República, there is another set of number which looks more normal and my question is why don't we use it?— An Macanese 14:49, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

I suspect this may be a case of the election commission reporting the results in this way because that is how the electoral threshold is calculated (i.e. including invalid/blanks), whereas this is the formal results (and "normal" way of presenting them). A few other electoral commissions do similar (e.g. the Bulgarian CEC ignores none of the above votes when calculating the percentages for the electoral threshold). I would suggest we present them the same way as the latter source, but add some prose to the text saying that the electoral commission calculates the electoral threshold differently. Cheers, Number 57 20:59, 2 April 2024 (UTC)

They only decided to publish the results like that after 2019. Maybe, this is just my guess, it's because of the high number of invalid ballots from overesas that changes a bit the share of the vote for parties. But, still, I'm for maintaining the non separation between valid and invalid votes.Tuesp1985 (talk) 23:01, 3 April 2024 (UTC)