2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
	County results; Zinke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Lewis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
U.S. Representative before election; Steve Daines; Republican	Elected U.S. Representative ; Ryan Zinke; Republican

The 2014 congressional election in Montana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. Between 1993 and 2023, Montana had one at-large seat in the House.

Montana's at-large congressional district

Incumbent Republican Congressman Steve Daines was first elected in 2012. Instead of running for re-election, he successfully ran for the U.S. Senate election in 2014.^[1] Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the elected will serve in the 114th United States Congress from January 3, 2015, until January 3, 2017.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Elsie Arntzen, state representative^[2]
Matt Rosendale, state senator^[3]
Corey Stapleton, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2012^[4]
Drew Turiano, real estate investor and candidate for Secretary of State of Montana in 2012^[5]
Ryan Zinke, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012^[6]

Withdrew

Brad Johnson, former Secretary of State of Montana (running for Montana Public Service Commission)^[7]

Declined

Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for the U.S. Senate)^[8]
Champ Edmunds, state representative (running for the U.S. Senate)^[9]
Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012^[10]
Scott Reichner, state representative^[11]
Jon Sonju, state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012^[11]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brad Johnson	Matthew Rosendale	Corey Stapleton	Ryan Zinke	Other	Undecided
PPP^[12]	November 15–17, 2013	469	±4.5%	20%	9%	32%	9%	—	31%

Primary results

Republican primary results^[13]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ryan Zinke	43,766	33.25
	Republican	Corey Stapleton	38,591	29.32
	Republican	Matt Rosendale	37,965	28.84
	Republican	Elsie Arntzen	9,011	6.85
	Republican	Drew Turiano	2,290	1.74
Total votes			131,623	100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

John Driscoll, former Public Service Commissioner, former Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives and nominee for the seat in 2008^[14]
John Lewis, former state director for U.S. Senator Max Baucus^[15]

Withdrew

Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for the seat in 2010^[16]

Declined

Pam Bucy, Montana Commissioner of Labor and Industry and nominee for Attorney General of Montana in 2012^[17]
Shane Colton, attorney and former commissioner of the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks^[17]
Amanda Curtis, state representative^[18]
John Engen, Mayor of Missoula^[19]
Kim Gillan, state senator and nominee for the seat in 2012^[20]^[21]
Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction^[22]
Jesse Laslovich, former state senator, Chief Legal Counsel to Montana State Auditor Monica Lindeen and candidate for Attorney General of Montana in 2012^[17]
Monica Lindeen, Montana State Auditor^[23]
Kendall Van Dyk, state senator^[24]
John Walsh, United States Senator former Lieutenant Governor of Montana and former Adjutant General of the Montana National Guard (running for the U.S. Senate)^[25]
Carol Williams, former Majority Leader of the Montana State Senate^[26]
John Patrick Williams, former U.S. Representative^[26]
Whitney Williams, former director of operations for Hillary Clinton^[26]
Franke Wilmer, state representative^[27]

Endorsements

John Lewis

Max Baucus, former U.S. Senator (D-MT)^[28]
Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana^[28]
Jon Tester, U.S. Senator (D-MT)^[28]

Primary results

Democratic primary results^[13]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Lewis	42,588	59.84
	Democratic	John Driscoll	28,580	40.16
Total votes			71,168	100

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Mike Fellows, businessman and chair of the Libertarian Party of Montana^[29]

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

Shawn White Wolf, counselor for the Montana United Indian Association and candidate for the Montana House of Representatives in 2010^[30]

General election

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ryan Zinke (R)	John Lewis (D)	Mike Fellows (L)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing^[31]	October 23–24, 2014	604	± 4%	53%	41%	—	6%
The MSU-Billings Poll^[32]	October 6–11, 2014	410	± 5%	40%	33%	2%	25%
Gravis Marketing^[33]	September 29–30, 2014	535	± 4%	51%	41%	—	8%
Vox Populi Polling^[34]	August 3–4, 2014	798	± 3.5%	44%	37%	—	19%
Gravis Marketing^[35]	July 20–22, 2014	741	± 4%	47%	35%	6%	11%
Public Policy Polling^[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	37%	32%	—	30%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brad Johnson (R)	John Lewis (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	43%	32%	—	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Matthew Rosendale (R)	John Lewis (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	37%	32%	—	31%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Corey Stapleton (R)	John Lewis (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	44%	31%	—	25%

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2014^[37]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Ryan Zinke	203,871	55.41%	+2.16%
	Democratic	John Lewis	148,690	40.41%	−2.13%
	Libertarian	Mike Fellows	15,402	4.18%	+0.15%
Total votes			367,963	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Hill (largest city: Havre)

References

^ Raju, Manu (November 5, 2013). "Steve Daines to announce Senate bid". POLITICO. Retrieved November 5, 2013.
^ "Conservative state senator to run for U.S. House". Great Falls Tribune. January 25, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (October 15, 2013). "Rosendale launches House race". Independent Record. Retrieved October 21, 2013.
^ Trygstad, Kyle (September 3, 2013). "Montana Senate Field Now Cleared for Daines #MTSEN". Roll Call. Retrieved October 21, 2013.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (November 22, 2013). "Helena man becomes 5th Republican in U.S. House". Missoulian. Retrieved December 5, 2013.
^ Lutey, Tom (October 21, 2013). "Whitefish's Zinke announces GOP candidacy for U.S. House". Missoulian. Retrieved October 21, 2013.
^ "Former GOP Secretary of State Brad Johnson to run for PSC". Helenair. January 30, 2014.
^ "Steve Daines Announces 2014 Senate Run". Huffington Post. November 6, 2013.
^ Catlett, Ron (December 4, 2013). "Champ Edmunds Will Challenge Daines in Montana GOP Senate Primary". Mediatrackers. Archived from the original on March 26, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2013.
^ "Rehberg will not run in 2014". MTN News. January 13, 2014. Archived from the original on January 15, 2014. Retrieved January 14, 2014.
^ ^a ^b "Formerly 'all in' House candidate now won't run". Billings Gazette. October 3, 2013.
^ PPP
^ ^a ^b "2014 Statewide Montana Primary Election Canvas" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 28, 2014. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 7, 2014). "Former Democratic lawmaker John Driscoll to run for U.S. House". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2014.
^ "Democrat John Lewis files to run for state's U.S. House seat". The Missoulian. August 26, 2013.
^ "Pat Williams challenges trio of Senate candidates". KAJ18.com. December 18, 2013. Archived from the original on December 19, 2013. Retrieved December 19, 2013.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Speculation: Democrats For U.S. House". Montana Street Fighter. May 26, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
^ "U.S. House race hinges on Daines' decision". Ravalli Republic. October 5, 2013. Retrieved October 5, 2013.
^ "Missoula Mayor Engen ready for next term". KPAX.com. November 6, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2013.^{[permanent dead link‍]}
^ "Race For U.S. House In MT Could Be Worth Watching". Montana Street Fighter. July 22, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
^ Rulon Herman, Malia (December 4, 2013). "Former Montana legislator Gillan named HHS regional head". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved December 11, 2013.
^ "Juneau latest Montana Dem to reject US Senate run". Missoulian. August 5, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
^ "Democrat Lindeen says no to run for U.S. Senate seat". The Missoulian. July 16, 2013.
^ "Growing number of Montana Democrats consider U.S. Senate run". missoulian.com. July 15, 2013.
^ "Montana Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D) to run for Senate". The Washington Post. October 3, 2013.
^ ^a ^b ^c Trygstad, Kyle (August 13, 2013). "Ex-Congressman Says No to Montana Senate Bid". Roll Call.
^ "After spending the past several weeks speaking..." Facebook. September 9, 2013.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Top Montana Democrats endorse Lewis for U.S. House". Great Falls Tribune. December 4, 2013. Retrieved December 11, 2013.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (March 10, 2014). "Missoula's Edmunds, Cundiff file for U.S. Senate race; Fellows runs for House". Missoulian. Retrieved March 11, 2014.
^ "White Wolf dropping out of House race". Montana Wacko Birds. January 10, 2014. Retrieved January 13, 2014.
^ Gravis Marketing
^ The MSU-Billings Poll
^ Gravis Marketing
^ Vox Populi Polling
^ Gravis Marketing
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Public Policy Polling
^ "2014 STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. November 4, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2018.

External links

Official campaign websites

[1] Raju, Manu (November 5, 2013). "Steve Daines to announce Senate bid". POLITICO. Retrieved November 5, 2013.

[2] "Conservative state senator to run for U.S. House". Great Falls Tribune. January 25, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014.

[3] Johnson, Charles S. (October 15, 2013). "Rosendale launches House race". Independent Record. Retrieved October 21, 2013.

[4] Trygstad, Kyle (September 3, 2013). "Montana Senate Field Now Cleared for Daines #MTSEN". Roll Call. Retrieved October 21, 2013.

[5] Johnson, Charles S. (November 22, 2013). "Helena man becomes 5th Republican in U.S. House". Missoulian. Retrieved December 5, 2013.

[6] Lutey, Tom (October 21, 2013). "Whitefish's Zinke announces GOP candidacy for U.S. House". Missoulian. Retrieved October 21, 2013.

[7] "Former GOP Secretary of State Brad Johnson to run for PSC". Helenair. January 30, 2014.

[8] "Steve Daines Announces 2014 Senate Run". Huffington Post. November 6, 2013.

[9] Catlett, Ron (December 4, 2013). "Champ Edmunds Will Challenge Daines in Montana GOP Senate Primary". Mediatrackers. Archived from the original on March 26, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2013.

[10] "Rehberg will not run in 2014". MTN News. January 13, 2014. Archived from the original on January 15, 2014. Retrieved January 14, 2014.

[formerlyallin-11] "Formerly 'all in' House candidate now won't run". Billings Gazette. October 3, 2013.

[12] PPP

[primaryresults-13] "2014 Statewide Montana Primary Election Canvas" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 28, 2014. Retrieved July 23, 2014.

[14] Johnson, Charles S. (March 7, 2014). "Former Democratic lawmaker John Driscoll to run for U.S. House". Billings Gazette. Retrieved March 9, 2014.

[15] "Democrat John Lewis files to run for state's U.S. House seat". The Missoulian. August 26, 2013.

[16] "Pat Williams challenges trio of Senate candidates". KAJ18.com. December 18, 2013. Archived from the original on December 19, 2013. Retrieved December 19, 2013.

[speculation-17] "Speculation: Democrats For U.S. House". Montana Street Fighter. May 26, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.

[18] "U.S. House race hinges on Daines' decision". Ravalli Republic. October 5, 2013. Retrieved October 5, 2013.

[19] "Missoula Mayor Engen ready for next term". KPAX.com. November 6, 2013. Retrieved November 8, 2013.^{[permanent dead link‍]}

[racewatching-20] "Race For U.S. House In MT Could Be Worth Watching". Montana Street Fighter. July 22, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.

[21] Rulon Herman, Malia (December 4, 2013). "Former Montana legislator Gillan named HHS regional head". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved December 11, 2013.

[22] "Juneau latest Montana Dem to reject US Senate run". Missoulian. August 5, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2013.

[23] "Democrat Lindeen says no to run for U.S. Senate seat". The Missoulian. July 16, 2013.

[24] "Growing number of Montana Democrats consider U.S. Senate run". missoulian.com. July 15, 2013.

[25] "Montana Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D) to run for Senate". The Washington Post. October 3, 2013.

[WilliamsOut-26] Trygstad, Kyle (August 13, 2013). "Ex-Congressman Says No to Montana Senate Bid". Roll Call.

[27] "After spending the past several weeks speaking..." Facebook. September 9, 2013.

[topmtdems-28] "Top Montana Democrats endorse Lewis for U.S. House". Great Falls Tribune. December 4, 2013. Retrieved December 11, 2013.

[29] Johnson, Charles S. (March 10, 2014). "Missoula's Edmunds, Cundiff file for U.S. Senate race; Fellows runs for House". Missoulian. Retrieved March 11, 2014.

[30] "White Wolf dropping out of House race". Montana Wacko Birds. January 10, 2014. Retrieved January 13, 2014.

[31] Gravis Marketing

[32] The MSU-Billings Poll

[33] Gravis Marketing

[34] Vox Populi Polling

[35] Gravis Marketing

[Public_Policy_Polling-36] Public Policy Polling

[Generalelection-37] "2014 STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State. November 4, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2018.

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2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

Contents

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Primary results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

External links